Two of the biggest races on the Australian racing calender clash for headline status tomorrow. While not interested in the which is better debate we are definitely excited to watch and have a punt on both.
Everest (Randwick r7 1200m) ; The richest turf race in the world has attracted an absolute star studded field of sprinters as you would expect. Redzel has controlled the speed on heavy tracks for the last two editions and proved way too strong late. The addition of the free wheeling Nature Strip and dry track make this year a completely different ball game. Impossible to rule any single runner out entirely and am looking for value which of there is plenty! Taking on the current favourite on the likely scenario of coming from last. As good as he is that would be some effort in this field!
1st Alizee; Chosen as Godolphin’s representative which is a good pointer to start with. Will also get back but drawn to have clear air and can take off when it needs to. Track & Distance and fresh records are outstanding. Tick over trial was super impressive.
2nd. Arcadia Queen ; The queen of the west will become the queen of the world if she wins this. The question is can she beat the worlds best sprinters over 1200m in her 2nd prep and 8th career start. It is a common thought that Winx could of won one if she had been set for it on her closing sectionals no matter what distance. Similar scenario here and can’t wait to see it unfold.
3rd Sunlight ; Her previous Sydney runs have been thwarted by the weather. She is rock hard fit and drawn to get a great run right behind the speed and doesn’t let horses past without one hell of a fight.
4th The Field ; As previously stated, you can’t rule any out.
Betting Strategy; I will be going a small win on my top 3 selections , a boxed quinella of my top 3 selections and including Santa Ana Lane & Pierata for 3rd and the field for 4th in flexi trifecta’s & first fours.
CAULFIELD CUP Race 9
In modern times it has been a case of weighing up the overseas form which in these staying ranks is generally far superior with the locals who have at least had a run or two and seen the Australian conditions before.
1st . Vow and Declare ; Arguably could of won QLD derby as a 3yo then returned with a 1.6 length 4th in the WFA Turnball stakes over 2000m. Looks even more suited in Melbourne Cup where he is my early tip but in a race of many questions one thing is for sure. He can stay and he is weighted to go close.
2nd Mr Quickie; Was a group 1 performed 3yo who beat Vow & Declare in the Qld Derby. Produced the run of the day in the Makybe Diva over 1600m before disappointing effort in Turnball. Track played leaderish that day and maybe a little of the 2nd up blues so willing to forgive.
3rd Finche; Looks the one who is peaking at the right time . Was dealt a hammer blow at barrier draw but is tough and can do work in his races.
4th; Big Duke; Veteran stayer who still has a zest for racing. Will need the breaks from barrier 1 but if he gets them can suprise at odds.
Betting Strategy; Vow and Declare each way and some on the Melbourne Cup All in market because if he wins he will be favourite. Box the first four selections for the quinella. The trifecta and first four are very tough. Numbers 2 3 4 7 11 16 all considerable for 3rd and 4th.
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