Another cup filled with Internationals awaits for the race that stops the nation, you could say divides the nation these days but here at Lucky Duck Racing we say “Yup to the Cup”
1 CROSS COUNTER (5); Modern history says going back to back in the cup is near on impossible. The main reason is the big jump in weight. Carried 51kgs last year and only won one race since. Too classy to rule out but I prefer the up and comers.
2. MER DE GLACE (2) ; Backed into favouritism on the back of dominant Caulfield Cup win. I have genuine concerns with the likely soft going. 7 of his 8 wins have been on very firm/fast Japanese tracks. Untried at 3200m , creeping up in the weights and barrier 2/24 for a horse that likes room. I’m willing to take him on at the price.
3. MASTER OF REALITY (1); Has raced against Europe’s best which in itself indicates he is good enough. This camp have won 6 cups and dedicate their entire operation on the quest. Has world champion jockey so must be in the mix somewhere.
4. MIRAGE DANCER (13); Was unlucky like many others in messy Caulfield Cup. International form more than strong enough over 2000m. Weighted to his very best for first try at 3200m.
5. SOUTHERN FRANCE (14); Has beaten some of today’s rivals convincingly back home. Has carried high weights at the highest level. Races on speed in a race that most don’t so should get every chance to run out trip which is most likely right on his limit.
6. HUNTING HORN (11); Overseas “pace maker”. Would of suggested it had no chance until dominant MV Cup win . Obviously arrived in mint condition but the class should find him out this time.
7. LATROBE (22); On current overseas form has a lot of ground to make up on some key rivals. Raced well in Australia last year but needs to lift.
8. MUSTAJEER (6); Only got going late in Caulfield Cup . Anything that wins an Ebor handicap should be more than competitive here. Champion jockey on , has a good show.
9. ROSTROPOVICH (12); Has had plenty of chances to show something in Australia and is yet to deliver.
10. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (19); Doesn’t have the class of some of his rivals but at least is proven at the distance. Rough claims.
11. FINCHE (4); Has looked a Cup contender all prep. Ran 4th last year with same weight. I wasn’t as impressed as others with his Caulfield Cup run , thought others got past him a little easy despite wide run. In the mix but under the odds?
12. PRINCE OF ARRAN (8); Remember Australia’s adopted warrior Red Cadeux ? Like Red, This bloke just thrives in Australia. 3rd last year and not having to run Saturday this time to qualify. Others have him covered back home but can they find the same improvement over here? Big chance.
13. RAYMOND TUSK (3); Fits the modern recipe for success. Lightly raced lightweight with strong European form. The big punters and overseas form experts have nominated him as a major player.
14. DOWNDRAFT (15) ; Saturday’s Hotham winner has a long history of running well 4 days later in the Cup. This years edition was pretty weak however he will be rock hard fit .
15. MAGIC WAND (24); Has competed competitively with the world’s best stayers. Battled on well on speed in the Cox Plate. Genuine WFA horse dropping to 53.5kgs in a Handicap. The query is the distance from the widest barrier.
16. NEUFBOSC (23) ; Would be a massive form reversal and shock for him to figure.
17 SOUND (10); Was knocked out of Caulfield Cup. Has won over distance in Germany but only managed 18th last year and 8th in Sydney Cup.
18. SURPRISE BABY (20); NZ bred local who has qualified through the lesser races. Won the Adelaide Cup over this distance at just start 6. His sired by a Melbourne Cup winner and will stay all day. No surprise if he is in the finish.
19. CONSTANTINOPLE (7); It’s European form is strong enough. I’m of the opinion the market overreacted to the interference in the Caulfield Cup. It was good to the line however others were just as good if not stronger. Untried at the trip and this race is often quite rough with 24 runners unlike some of the small elite fields overseas. The light weight and perfect draw still has it among the major players.
20. IL PARADISO (17); One of a select few who like to lead, has won over the trip and has no weight. Has a chance on Stradivarius form but leading in A Melbourne Cup takes some doing.
21. STEEL PRINCE (16); Strung 5 in a row in easier grade last preparation . Has had a few setbacks and form has hence disappeared. Not going well enough.
22. THE CHOSEN ONE (18); Beat PRINCE OF ARRAN 3 Starts back over 2400m which is a great reference. Has got a long way back in unsuitable races since. Blinkers off to try and help him settle. Doubt much pace on here either and needs to find a few gears.
23. VOW AND DECLARE (21); The best Aussie hope we have had in years. Trained like a European , heading to the cup 3rd up and only start 13 with only 52kgs. Trainer has said all along he will eat up the Flemington 2 miles. Even more encouraging they weren’t expecting him to figure in the two lead up races. His 2nd in the Caulfield Cup had be on me next start all over it. Got tightened by winner and couldn’t quite sprint with him but was coming back at him on the line. Massive chance.
24. YOUNGSTAR (9); Ran 6th last year but hasn’t won a race since May 2018. Will at least get the distance.
1st 23. VOW AND DECLARE 2nd. 13 RAYMOND TUSK 3rd. 8 MUSTAJEER 4TH 12 PRINCE OF ARRAN
NOVELTIES
1ST 8 13 23
2ND 8 12 13 20 23
3RD 8 11 12 13 19 20 23
4TH 4 5 8 11 12 13 19 20 23.
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