Best Bet r6 Swansee ; A repeat of any of her last three runs will win this and make it three in a row. Gets a gun run and I don’t understand why it’s not favourite. Sure Cinque Stelle deserves respect but is a c1 coming off heart fib. Any other stable'/jockey it wouldn’t be starting favourite , the early money has poured in though , so plenty disagree.
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Best Bet Belmont r1 Properata ; Don’t usually like backing 2yo’s in all aged maidens , however this race is made up of 4 2yo’s , 5 3yo’s and 1 4yo so it’s not as big a concern. The ease of his trial win , backed up by the clock make him the one to beat first up from the perfect barrier where he should stalk the speed.
Belmont r6 Conchetta’s Dream ; One of those horses that always features in the stewards reports , if you have been backing her this prep you wouldn’t have any hair left. The 2nd to Western Miss this track & distance last start in a c3 is definitely the right form , If blinkers first time help her find a length or so then she should be winning.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r3 God’s Grin ; Brings far superior metro graduation form to this country 61+ and is drawn to get every possible chance.
Kalgoorlie r8 Friar’s Legacy ; He is showing signs of being a “nonny” , but he split Common Touch & Supido Express two back and those horses have since won Saturday races. Hopefully the senior rider going back on gets the best out of him and he can reward connections with another overdue win.
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Belmont r3 Long Service Leaf ; He’s 4/4 over 1000m and he does it with a sharp burst of speed at the end . He maps to settle close enough and will just need a gap to burst through to make it 5/5.
Best Value Belmont r4 Partay ; He has absolutely destroyed moderate opposition either side of a 2nd over 1700m to Shimonoseki . That form suggests to me he is the only real danger to hot favourite Western Miss . If he can cross her (Pike might even be looking to trail ) then he is some sort of threat to pinch it over 1400m and a great place bet at $2.50 I still think he can run top 3 if forced to sit outside lead.
Best Each Way Belmont r5 Charino ; Loving how good he is going this prep and he should get the run of the race , whereas the two up n coming mares , Magical Sequence and Zourun Run have drawn wide . Never raced beyond 1200m but I don’t see it as an issue and I rate him a clear favourite , hence the each way on offer appeals. SRM ; Charino (1) Top 2 Urquhart’s Bluff (11) Top 4 . Urquhart’s is racing out of his skin this prep and is better drawn than the 2 mares.
Best Bet Belmont r7 Twisted Steel ; Maps to get a kinder run than 1st up . out to 1200m and gets 2kgs off Immortal Bliss to turn the tables. Hard to see anything else improving enough to feature.
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Best Bet r4 Delzee ; Debuted over this track & distance with a solid 2nd behind 2yo Dawn Dancer who ran them off their legs . That horse backed up 2 days later and repeated the dose in 2yo Saturday company to frank the form. The fact he took late ground off the winner despite being green suggests he should go close here with the experience under his belt.
r7 Tag Time ; Comes to WA with 3 starts in provincial Vic for 2 4th’s and a 3rd. From barrier 1 with Pike he is not hard to find in this moderate line up. Call Me Invincible looks next best and I could consider backing him for a place at current odds.
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Pinjarra r2 No”s 3 , 9 & 10
Keen to bet around Dirty Habits (6) at the current odds of $1.55 . He had every chance last start and could only manage 3rd at similar odds. Raced that day and is bred to suggest he is looking for further so the step up from 1300 to 1700 should suit but the price seems ludicrous .
Suparoo (3) , has been hitting the line well in all 3 starts this campaign , the latest over today’s 1700m. Flavoursome (9) , was beaten under a length despite missing the start over 1600m here last start. Bangalong (10) looked home at the 100m last start (we were on and in the que) , hit a wall and only just clung on to 3rd . Did she peak or is she a horse who pulls up when she hits the front ? Today will tell us more. Equal stakes on all 3 to topple the fav and a SRM for all 3 to run top 4 . Other options are to include the fav in a boxed trifecta/first 4 .
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Best Bet Carnarvon r3 Tiffs Lad ; Two starts ago , apprentice Gian O'Donnell put the handlebars down in a 1700 Belmont 0MWLY midweek on a good track and they didn’t get near him , bolting in by over 4 lengths. Tried to repeat the dose on a Heavy track and punctured halfway up the straight . Going from Metro OMWLY to Country 56+ grade is a massive drop in grade , rises significantly in weight , bar plates go on and first run on dirt. In summary I think he will be in front turning for home , if he’s traveling I doubt they catch him , if he’s feeling his feet or doesn’t like the dirt he probably finishes closer to last. Not a big play but is only play on the program.
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Best Bet Belmont r4 Auto Cruise ; Don’t know if she lost her compass on the turn last start or jockey was looking for better ground but it was a huge run all the same. Think staying out of trouble from the wide draw and flooding home again will suit and she should be rounding these up. The scratching of last start conqueror Ocean Park means we have to take skinny odds but I think they’re justified.
Best Value Belmont r5 Shimonoseki ; In scintillating form at the midweeks , storming home and catching another promising runner in Partay who bolted in an easier race on Wednesday. I have the fav Western Miss penned as a future Carnival horse , especially in mares company and perhaps staying events. I just can’t get her 1.85 vs dbl figures today , especially from the gate. I’m very keen on Shimonoseki the place with a spec on the win.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r6 Jayashree ; Maps to get the run of the race with a light weight and has won 2 of her last three , beating a lot of today’s rivals in the process.
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Best Bet Belmont r3 Common Touch ; Has resumed with dominant all the way victories in maiden and c1 company , running time in the process. Obviously this is a step up but drawn 1 in a race he should comfortably lead , going to take a big effort to run him down.
Best Value Belmont r7 Final Siren ; 4 starts at the track & distance for 2 wins 2 seconds , 2 first up wins previously. Latest trial indicated he might be back to his best and in a complete raffle I’m happy to spec him each way at the big odds.
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Best Bet race 2 Hell’s Citi ; Did very little in his first 26 starts in the metro / provincial are and then first run on dirt this track & distance won his maiden by 5.5 Lengths. Only beaten 1.4 next start up to 1200m and now returns to 1000m after a 40 day freshen . If he shows enough early pace to hold the front from barrier 1, he should take a lot of running down.
Best Bet Belmont r8 Western Miss , You could argue she should have won her maiden at her first two attempts and she smoked them at short odds at her 3rd go. Maiden straight to c3 from barrier 10 , I wouldn’t be taking any shorter than the $2.10 however she looks progressive and Pike has chosen her over the 2nd fav Conchetta’s Dream. That horse always looks unlucky and I/m not convinced the step up to 1700m is her go.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Ideally ; With each step up in distance this mare has looked closer to winning another race. This race looks very similar to last time where she made an early move and was only nabbed late. I rate her a $2.60-80 chance so am more than happy to be involved at $3.90 . Gold Enigma bolted in a York 1920m maiden 2 back. Wide gate but might be the main danger at odds.
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Best Value Belmont r7 Autumn Gem : Both runs this time in have been rippers , flashing home in easier grade but against the older horses . Looks suited getting out to 2000m and I’m happy to play each way at $19 .
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Best Each Way race 5 Bangalong ; First start this track and distance was a beauty , flooding home from well back and just missing despite jockey losing the whip at the 200m. Can settle closer from better draw and looks value at each way odds. Vexatious Rose was massive first up but then missed a run being scratched at the barriers . Midnight Deal was solid first up and is bred to appreciate the extra trip but has Pike Tax . Think Bangalong is clearly better value than both.
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Best Value Bunbury r8 Ginger Baker ; 3 time heavy track winner including this race last year. Current form indicates he’s still racing with great enthusiasm and if he wasn’t 29 days off a setback , missing a lead up run , I could honestly mark him favourite. He’s as tough as old boots and the conditions of the race suit him down to the ground so if the stable is happy to send him round , I’m happy to have a decent place , small win bet at the double figures on offer.
Best Bet Belmont r3 Charino ; Think he has come back in career best form , resuming with a solid 2nd and complete forgive run over 1000m , before stepping up to his preferred 1200 and winning effortlessly. Drawn to get every chance , there is not enough evidence to suggest how he will handle a genuine wet track so we hope for the best in that regard.
Belmont r7 Territory Man ; His 3 wins from 7 starts have all come 1st or 2nd up , including his first up win on a soft 6 2 weeks ago. See no reason to jump off from the ideal barrier on another wet track.
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Best Bet Race 2 Violent ; A race record of 2 starts for a close 2nd and soft win suggests this 3yo filly should have too much upside for her older / well tried rivals in a c1. The fact the win was on dirt only strengthens her claims.
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Best Each Way Belmont r4 Special Counsel ; Maiden , c1 soft wins and now into grad 60+ company for the hatrick . He has already been backed into favourite but remains at each way odds , such is the openness of the market. Sit’s midfield and rips down the long Belmont straight with the light weight.
Belmont r8 Olympic Park ; Confident he is the best horse in the race and trainer Mick Grantham has declared him ready to go. That’s enough for me to get involved at the $8 each way despite being first up for 16 months.
Best Bet Ascot (UK) r3 Joliestar ; Waller and Jmac fly the flag for one of Australia’s top sprinters who prove time and time again that they are better than the European sprinters. If she has handled the travel , she will handle the opposition.
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Best Each Way Race 2 Dromore Castle ; Great trial followed by a superb debut when finishing off hard here over 1100 , missing by a nose. Extra 200m should suit and $9 / $2.35 seems value compared to $1.75 Bosun who deserves favouritism but not at those skinny odds,
Best Bet Northam r3 Western Miss ; Making the case that the severe interference she received from the winner Reminiscence cost her running 2nd and beating today’s rival Call Me Invincible home. The winner franked the form with another smart win yesterday which makes both of them the ones to beat with a leaning to the favourite.
SRM Western Miss Top 2 , Call Me Invincible Top 3 ; Playing it extra safe over the quinella.
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