Weekend Winners

Best Bet Pingrup r2 Schubeck ; Yep you read it right , I’m going to a field of 4 at Pingrup for the best bet of the weekend! His first up run behind now Saturday winner Pingers in a Bunbury c3 is so many lengths superior to these it’s not funny and his next three runs were ok considering the class difference. Four Sees has been ok but in Albany & Esperance c2s so fav? The other two got beat at Kojonup recently.Nothing would surprise in a race like this but Schubeck should be fav in my opinion and I’m pretty confident.

Ascot r3 Lucky I Am : Not sure I’ve seen him not race in the lead until last start when he uncharacteristically bombed the start. Funnily enough he attacked the line from last to 2nd and they just might of learnt something. Providing he jumps they can either lead or take a sit and box seat . He looks hard to beat in either scenario . I found this Ascot meeting impossible to label anything a “Best Bet “ . A 40/60% split covers your stake should it place.

Best Value Ascot r8 Sky Duke ; 3 starts ago he won the Boxing Day Dash at Pinjarra . I then tipped him as a value bet and he ran 9th / 10 however i missed the dreaded bar plates going on. He then went to the Cyril Flower and ran 2nd to Almighty Class at $31. He opened at $12 and currently sits at $26 which is odd considering his form. The drift is concerning and it seems I struggle to catch him on the right day but I’m having something on each way in case.

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Gero Gambles

Best Bet r4 Snippety Legend ; Has had 5 starts at this track & distance and won 4 of them. Only beaten just over two lengths in a Ascot Grad 60+ last start and looks the one to beat with Tash Faithfull booked. The market flucs on this race so far have been fascinating . Manhattan Strip ( 2.80 right out to 6) was luckless last start and Austin Galati is Snippety’s regular jockey. Truly Gallant ( 2.80 - 1.90 - 2.05) has Nottle booked and is coming from an encouraging run in lesser grade , dropping 6.5 kgs to compensate. Snippety ( 4 - 2.35 -2.5) was backed into favouritism early and remained rock solid .

SRM r7 N1 Top 2 , N10 Top 3 ; Scurgeofthewest is going for 5 in a row and this is no harder than the previous 4. The last and only time he raced over 1600 however he ran 3rd with 60kgs in a c1 . That was May last year and clearly he has come on since then , I just want to include the stablemate Let’s Sea as insurance , he was a big winner this track and trip last start and is in career best form. The SRM is north of $3 opposed to the fav winning at odds on.

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Pinny Punts

Best Bet R2 Oscars No Grouch ; 3yo with a record of 3 starts for 2 placings. The first two starts were over 1000m and his best run was the latest , finishing well into 3rd from back in the field over 1300m. This indicates that the 1400m should suit and the other horses in the betting have had more starts for very limited success. Likely to settle midfield at best from the draw so a fair or swoopers track is required.

Best Value r6 Blue Can Talk ; 3 starts ago ran a pimple 2nd to Avoidance in a grad 60+ at 100/1 , that galloper then won again last Saturday . From barrier 1 she needs to jump and lead or box seat to cause the upset but she’s not hopeless. Only 7 runners so a small win spec only .

Novelties 5 6 7 , 5 6 7 , 1 3 5 6 7 , 1 3 5 6 7 .

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r5 Streak of God , Playing God 3yo trained by Williams , Pike in the saddle and last start maiden winner sees it a $3.10 fav in an all aged 1800m C3. The maiden was over 1695m and the best part of his run was late where he ran through the line. It’s Derby time and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s heading there if he measures up. Plenty to like in this moderate line up however there are negatives. There is a strong Easterly blowing today , that favours on pace at Ascot and he is drawn wide. The 2nd fav Mistress of War is a natural front runner. This makes the price questionable but I’m going to back The Wizard to overcome any map problems. Black for Cash is dropping right back in grade , a difficult type of horse for an apprentice but he’s good enough.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Albany r3 Space Academy ; Soft Ascot c1 winner following competitive runs in the same grade. That form should stack up very well in a country c2.

Best Value Albany r4 Crystalist ; Can unleash a sharp sprint when he gets the right run and besides 1 run at Barker where something wasn’t right , he has been in the finish of all his races lately . $13 each way looks great value.

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Weekend Winners

Best Each Way Bunbury r2 Lash Out ; This horse ran out of it’s skin last start , trapped off the track the whole way with 60kgs , he just kept coming and split a pretty talented pair. That was only a c1 but 1st and 3rd are better than c1 grade and he has only had 6 starts , plenty of room to keep progressing. Candle Smoke is talented but 1200m is well short of his best distance , Playing Rio is a massive class dropper. Heavy place each way for Lash Out is the way I’m playing it.

Best Bet Bunbury r4 Lillian ; Since narrowly missing in a 1200m country 58+ at Geraldton first up , she has won a 1500m cl3 , 1800 Grad and 2200m 66+ at Ascot. Stays in the same grade and only goes up 0.5 due to the 2kg claim. She simply maps to get the best run in transit and it’s hard to see anything ending the winning streak.

Bunbury r5 Galway Shawl ; Has won 4/6 and all 4 have been at her home track here at Bunbury. Beaten into 2nd last start in a harder race , she had to push into the clear , while the winner had all the momentum down the outside. If Whiting can keep her in the clear today , she looks awfully hard to hold out. Just Walter John can pull hard out in front but he can really run them along and is hard to catch. If leaders are proving difficult to run down then he becomes a serious challenger , especially if Lash Out runs a good race in r2.

Exacta 4 / 6 . Other Novielties Field Field ; Desert Life could ruin the exacta or make the novelties very skinny from the soft draw on the minimum. Her 2 non 1000m runs have been her worst , tomorrow we will find out if it was map related .

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r2 Searchin Times ; Your either in the corner of So Si God turning the tables from the better draw / smaller field or sticking with Searchin Times . I’m sticking , thinking making the run in clear air is still better than looking for a run boxed up. Small fields are tacticul affairs and at least Nottle should have options.

Belmont r5 Tahni Talk ; If he repeats the booming finish from his first up maiden victory when heavily backed , he goes close to toppling the odds on fav in Sentimental Legend . Perhaps he wasn’t quite ready , the winkers might sharpen him up , just felt it wasn’t a run to warrant odds on. They look the two , maybe the obvious quinella can be a saver .

Belmont r6 Cannykev ; On 1000m stats , especially nearly running down Haida Gwai last start , he should be winning. My concern is get back sprinters over 1000m at Belmont are not suited , hence the short odds are a risk vs reward query.

Best SRM Belmont r7 ; No’s 3 & 9 Top 3 ; History Won’t Care couldn’t of done any better from it’s settling position first up. He has a level of ability that can easily win this however he is a hard horse to catch. Swift Talker was ultra impressive on debut and a complete flop 2nd up. He presents first up off a great trial and is the other main winning chance. Clearly the two to put in the quaddie , both finishing top 3 should be paying .

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Monday Money

Best Bet York R5 Bill Selects : 6yo mare in career best form. Won in this grade 4 back and then has placed in 3 consecutive metro/ provincial c3’s . The latest was behind Saturday winner Magical Sequence . Outstanding form for this , if it wasn’t York (quirky track ) with an apprentice on I would be unloading . Still a great chance of a collect .

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Sunday Prayer

Best Each Way Esperance r7 Outspoken Lad ; Has resumed with two 66+ runs in town , beaten 2.29 and 3.88 lengths . Those margins indicate he is well placed to beat the local form which is considerably weaker imo at his peak distance (4 starts 1 w 3 2nds) . Logically Arcadia Night is hardest to beat using the same theory , with CJP coming down for 1 ride. He is 6 weeks between runs and 2.90 vs $7 each way ….. It literally just firmed to $4 on tabtouch while typing. I just took $5.50 on tab.com.au

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Weekend Winners

Pike Pike Pike

You either call him a Wizard or a Butcher , love him or hate him , Pike is on 10/10 pre post favs as we speak tonight. at an average of 2.59 . The Multi price to ride the card is $9715 , the actual odds of that happening is much bigger however I do have several of the 10 on top so picking the right ones to multi up is the task we are left with . Throw in some quaddies and novelties banking on a few and there is still good money to be made , take him on successfully and you can retire!

Trixie : A trixie takes the 3 doubles and 1 treble combination for equal stakes. At these current prices , 2/3 will be money back / tiny profit while all 3 will be a decent collect. I use 365 which allows you to combine the 3 separate boost odds combined , if you wait til race day it also includes drift protector however I’m concerned they will firm even more overnight. I’ll leave that decision up to you.

Race 4 Wonderfully Made (1.70-1.83) ; We kick off with the shortest of the 10 who is 2/2 this campaign and I’m tipping this run will continue right through and include the Oaks. She beat up extremely limited c1 horses last start but it was literally a barrier trial. She again gets it too easy close to the speed for anything to run past her.

Race 7 Magical Sequence ( 2.20 -2.40 ) ; Has won 3/4 this prep and the one time she lost was the only time Pike wasn’t on. While 1400m with 59kgs might be a query , think she gets too soft a run in this grade to be too concerned. If something does run her down it might be Later Alligator who is racing well and is the Quinella / Exacta horse.

Race 9 Hubble’s Dragon ( 2.00 - 2.20) 3yo with upside , working his way through the grades . His last start was a solid 2nd in the Magic Millions 3yo behind the very smart Twisted Steel . 4th in that race was Champagne Crusader and that filly made light work of C3 opposition on Wednesday. Should get a lovely , soft run just behind Kelvinator and take him when Pike presses the button , leaving Hey Pino & Macciateau to try and run him down.

Novelties : 7 , 5 8 9 12 , s2 , s2 . If we get to r9 and we have a lot riding on the Dragon winning we can consider going all ways for insurance.

Early Quaddie (r3-6 ) 3 , 2 , 2 3 5 6 8 10 11 12 , 3 4 5 . $24 / 100%

Quaddie (r7-10 ) 3 , 2 3 , 7 , Field . $20 / 100%

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Bunbury Bangers

Best Value Bunbury r6 Grandad’s Addiction ; Won a 1400m Bunbury maiden first up last prep, beating a short priced favourite by over 2 lengths. Presents first up same track & distance in a c1. $23 / $4.60 is juicy enough to see if he can repeat .

Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Pinjarra r3 Batista ; Debut 3rd in a 3yo 0MW , dropping in weight to a maiden with barrier 1 , looks an ideal set up . I honestly expected him to open a short priced favourite with Wynn Las Vegas drawing poorly. He is 1.95 out to 2.35 , Batista is 7 into 4.80. Always respect the market but I still think it’s odd.

Best Quinella Pinjarra r5 No’s 5 & 6 ; Just Walter John looked home last start before he tired late . Perhaps went too hard out in front. If he can control it better today he is a massive chance of going all the way this time. He will have Gangster Goddess on his tail however. Although the form didn’t stack up yesterday , he still had to take a narrow run and sprint sharply over 1000m to score first up. Kept changing my mind on which one wins so will go the obvious quinella instaed.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r4 Bohemian Diamond ; We know she is dynamite first up and she won as she liked 4 weeks ago this track & trip. Looking through the crystal ball , you would imagine they have kept her as fresh as possible in the 4 weeks in between to replicate .

Exacta 5 , 6 . Rolling Ruler’s best runs in his career so far are when he gets back and savages the line. From barrier 1 I just cant see him getting the run in time to run Diamond down . The race lacks serious depth behind these two and I’m keen on the mare to beat the gelding.

Albany r2 Flick The Switch

Exacta 2 , 1

; Not much between her and Storm Commander , they clearly stand out from the rest. Mother and daughter Faithful are very hard to beat at Albany.

Esperance Evaluation

Best Bet r5 Buster’s Girl ; Hoping she can find the front for the 4kg claiming apprentice . Under that scenario I think she can hold the fav Call Time off , like she did on the 31st Jan. Call Time won last week but that was 1300m.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r6 Luna Ascending & Searchin Times ; Luna is the map horse , coming off a dominant win in a maiden . Used it’s good barrier to advantage on that occasion and draws best here to repeat. Searchin is a well related filly who despite racing very green , showed she has inherited the family ability last start. They both look over the odds around $6 - $7 range so we can back both to win with equal units.

SRM 1 4 10 All Top 4 ; So Si God won a 3yo OMWLY on debut and now presents as fav in a c1. Clearly hardest to beat.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Ascot r6 Playin It Sweet ; She has won 6/ 11 including a few at listed level and yet to miss top 3 in her career. Under the set weight and penalties she gets in with 56kgs against a mixture of c2/1 and maidens . She has won over 1400m and is out of Playing God so 1500m shouldn’t pose a problem. There are a few odds on favs earlier in the program who look very hard to beat but have way more things against them such as wide barriers and weight so the rapidly disappearing black figures seem generous. I suggest we get on now .

SRM No 1 Top 2 , No 7 Top 4 , Think Naughty Lord is the one at odds to include , looking for extra ground from a good draw and solid enough form for a $20 chance.

Novelties 1 , to beat 2 5 7 10 . Perhaps a small percentage boxed aswell .

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Weekend Winners

Track Watch : Pinjarra has favored on pace more often than not in recent times. I am tipping on a fair track scenario but as always , the evidence of the early races will effect confidence as the day goes on .

Pinjarra r2 True Player ; 2/2 2nd up both at today’s 1600m with Pike in the saddle and he clearly prefers dry tracks. Wary of Ex Williams horses at moment , the results haven’t been great but Pike sticks in a typically open Westpeed Platinum Saturday race. * Will likely get back and race 2 is too early to know an obvious pattern so we will just have to trust Pike .

Pinjarra r6 Galway Shaw ; Has been expertly placed to win 4/5 and now gets in a winnable 80k Saturday race with 54.5kgs. Hoping a horse like Pingers (51kgs) tries to run them ragged which will allow her to use her sharp turn of foot from a midfield position. * Looks enough speed to suit , this time we will have evidence to see if they are making any ground at all.

Best Quinella / SRM Pinjarra r7 No’s 8 & 9 Top 2 No 13 Top 4.

Thereallsisters & Maria Lucia have the form on the board and the draws to fight out the finish . Yamanex made good ground on debut and can save every inch from barrier 1.

Best Bet Pinjarra r8 Twisted Steel ; Although his 2/2 2yo wins were in winter , he still created a big impression on the clock. His 3yo spring was good first up behind an exceptional filly and a forgive from a wide draw. First up he was ridden quietly and then 2nd up he was ridden like the best horse and bounced back with a dominant win. Has a class edge on most of these and Heeza Phoenix is drawn extremely wide. Very Hard to beat. * Expect him to be ridden aggressively , outside leader at worst.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r1 Sharpassa ; She is sharp and she’s drawn to dictate from the front. From there it will take a big sustained sprint to run her down. Punters connected to Fernie’s stable believe Gangster Goddess will do so with that filly annihilated into odds on in early betting. Better odds for us hopefully.

Pike Multi : After taking him on , riding the odds on pop in r1 , I then change teams and back him in to ride a treble on short priced favourites ! Can he go 1/4 and rub my face in it ? time will tell .

Race 2 Cinque Steele ; Trials indicate this expensive yearling has a level of ability that should be far too good for her limited opposition , unless one of the other unraced runners have been hiding at trials. $1.65 for a horse on debut is still a risk.

Race 3 Excess Baggage ; Will find this considerably easier than her first up run in the Breeders Plate where she was still only beaten 2.5 from a mile off them. She will get back again from the wide draw so we need a fair track that you can make ground . Was my best bet at $2.15 this morning but I wasn’t quick enough.

Race 5 Wonderfully Made ; She smoked a 3YO 0MWLY first up over 1400m and drops in grade to a thin c1 over 1600m .If we get to this last leg , I’m supremely confident she will justify the $1,60 and take us to the payout Que.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Each Way Mt Barker r3 Secret Stones ; Jumped from barrier 11 this track and distance and brought up back to back victories . Draws softer today and each way in a field of 8 seems generous.

Best SRM 3 4 6 all top 4. : I have doubts on the fav Vomo Island running the 1300m out strong with 61.5kgs and Flying South seems to be racing below his best . Both Imposing Brook & Gingerquest are racing consistently well therefore the three of them only have to beat 1 of the favs and the roughies home to collect .

Best Bet Mt Barker r4 Lordgivemestrength ; Forget last start when wide and back from the bad gate and go off today’s likely map where he should park right behind the speed, Polynova should have to work over to cross and seems to always be vulnerable late and while anything from the Weinert stable deserves upmost respect , Sky God’s form doesn’t warrant $3 favouritism. Good race to shop around and use any boosts you might have and then potentially lay off In The Run on Betfair.

Two Bet Strategy Mt Barker r6 What A Prince & Mister Popcorn ; The weights of this year’s cup indicate Prince is the clear class runner with 60.5kgs . Last start he led over 1900m and bolted in with 62.5kgs and will have no problems with the extra 100m. If Mister Popcorn can catch them napping again with his custom mid race move then he will be hard to peg back with only 54kgs. They are both trading over $4 so we can make profit with equal stakes on both. Duchee’s Demerit doesn’t have the same class as Prince but is nicely weighted on 54.5 and is the other main chance. All to run top 4 (no’s 1 5 7 ) is another SRM to consider.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r1 Just Walter John ; Did too much work first up but still only got run down by the stablemate who had a better run. Found the front in a weak maiden 2nd up and smoked them at the short odds. Like the horse and only has 5 horses to contend with for his graduation to Saturday company .

Best Place Bet Ascot r7 Camera Action ; For those who follow the tips regularly , you’d be aware this horse has been costly. I can’t put to much blame on the horse however , the mare has raced without luck . Top senior rider goes on for a red hot stable , one more roll of the dice. She does get back in her races and doesn’t map particularly well here hence I suggest 90% place.

R7 Box Trifecta / First 4 ; 3 5 6 8 ; Platinum Shot looks the other value in the race , hopefully both can add value to the novelties.

In The Run Bet Ascot r5 Triple The Chant ; If Camera Action has been costly then this mare has been a complete trainwreck. Again though , the luck in running has been non existent. She has contributed to this by jumping poorly and I’m convinced she’s much better suited to Belmont. Untried at 1800m , up to 59kgs and under each way odds , I thought instead of having a mental health bet we could discuss in the run betting on betfair. This way we can see how she jumps and is traveling before deciding to back her or not. I will try and do a live video during the race on Instagram if you would like to learn more about it.

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