Ascot r7 Western Miss ; Lightly raced 4yo who has finished first past the post 4/7 (including 1 disqualification ) and is still on an upward spiral. Can be ridden to any pattern or race situation that presents and she looks an odds on chance to mine so $2 is acceptable.
Best Bet Ascot r8 Immortal Bliss ; Looks the clear class with Talkanko and with him drawing middle he should be able to sit in clear air and pounce , while the mare will be sweating on a split.
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Race 4 Snow Monkey ; Last night when doing the form , stablemate Don’t Declare was $1.90 into $1.75 and Snow Monkey was rock steady at $2.20 . SM has a run under her belt , DD is first up off 6 months and that run was the only run of the campaign. That’s enough to go with SM however the market has flipped and we are now presented with $1.70 vs $2.15 . If it doesn’t get to at least $1.90 I’ll just play the quaddie.
Best Bet Race 5 Frosted Warrior ; Another race with two runners dominating the market , I rate the form behind Bourbonontherocks & Moose much higher than Costa Del Darlo & Peanut Butter . Banking on Chris Parnham getting a race to race double over Pike !
Edit : just as i go to hit send , it firms from 2.15 to $1.70 and still shortening . Looks like it’s a quaddie day.
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 9, 3 , fld , fld . $99 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont 3 She’s A Splinter ; Trainer was quiet bullish first up however things didn’t work out , slow away and caught wide on a rail bias day. Did a good job to still make ground and finish 3rd. Pike gets back aboard , just needs a fairer track from another wide gate. Gentle Touch has the obvious form reference , dropping from a decent run in 3yo listed company , just feel she was $91 in that race and is a bit short as $2.50 fav.
Belmont r5 Reginetta : 2/2 undefeated mare dropping from Saturday grad company to a midweek c3 yet somehow presently sits as the 2nd fav . Star Martini is quick and in form , I do not rate the form out of her last win but she will take running down.
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Best Bet Northam r1 Maybe Maybe Maybe ; Her 2 runs (both with excuses) behind Official Business have indicated a level of ability and the rise in distance is likely to suit. Scared stiff of Blindfolded , he looks to be the best horse in the race , might even be a 3yo feature contender. Going with the filly purely on the barrier advantage. With the rail in the true , barrier 1 vs 11 /11 has to be worth a couple of lengths , add the race experience and she just might be able to hold him off at the better odds.
Best Each Way Northam r10 Nature’s Reckoning ; Thought the first up run was very good , getting within a length of two 1000m specialists . Much better suited out to 1300m and drawn to camp just behind the pace and pounce. Very open race but one of the hardest to beat at $7.50 each way.
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Best Each Way Ascot r5 Javelin Strike ; Put 2 wins together from nowhere and now finds a very winnable Sat Graduation race and goes around at $7 each way. The fav Rogue Ruler looks hard to beat with solid 3yo form but he is a maiden untried at the distance. He finished behind Swift Ruler previously who failed dismally against the older horses as a hot favourite last week.
Ascot r10 Truly Loyal ; One of the Peter’s Investments army trying to get into the Railway Stakes . Taking short odds on backmarkers at Ascot is a thrill ride but so far this season it’s been off fence , which is very unusual. Has an electrifying turn of foot and Chris Parnham just has to time the run right to keep the winning streak going.
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Best Bet Race 3 Miss Ajax ; Ran a very credible 3rd in Saturday grade on debut . Freshened and then at start three , made up a stack of ground to run 2nd in a Bunbury maiden. That just has to be the right form for a country maiden.
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Best Bet Belmont R3 Tex N Cee ; Has hit the line at all 3 starts for 3 2nds , behind 3 horses that would start very short against this opposition. Will get back again but he really should be rounding these up . Rocking In Vegas is the danger and is a 21 start maiden .
Belmont r7 Vampi Queen ; Won a maiden / c3 back to back at Belmont a luckless run at Ascot in Saturday grad company. Wasn’t the strongest grad race but still lengths better than these and she can return to her winning ways.
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Best Bet Kal r6 Please Mizter ; Kal has been heavily leader biased all season , most seasons in fact. This one has won his last two by a combined 6 plus lengths in this grade . Don’t see anything drawn inside him with the speed to hold him out so I struggle to see them running him down. All eyes on the start.
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Best Bet Ascot r4 Treasured Legacy ; Have been talking up this 3yo filly as a major player in the Spring all prep . Should of gone very close when held up the entire behind some of these two back and then demolished a c3 field in first gear. The only question is price , she was double figures the day she was luckless and now we are presented with $3.50 from an awkward barrier. Ascot has played fair if not off fence so far which is unusual but suits . Angel Express would be on the same path as Treasured Legacy and is 2/2 . Yes this is a step up but $17 looks a bit generous and is worth including.
SRM Treasured Legacy Top 3 , Angel Express Top 4.
Ascot R6 Swift Ruler ; Richly talented 3yo who has been identified as a potential top line stayer in a stable that knows one when they see one . Still has to beat the older horses up in trip which is not easy this early in the season hence the $1.90 is not that enticing. If he gets to black figures I will have a decent bet.
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Best Bet Race 2 Wiluna Lass ; 1000m speed demon who was brave stretching out to 1200m last start , fighting one off , despite being challenged at the top of the straight. Considering she held 2nd fav Star Martini comfortably start prior and now meets her 2.5kgs better off , thanks to the 4kg claim , She’s hard not to tip. I was all set to push the MEGABET button when Gemma Taylor was booked. She rode her last start and looks very talented after a handful of rides. Not as familiar with the replacement and it’s a concern when they are on a fav that the other jocks can target. Jump , hold Star Martini early and let fast horses be fast.
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Best Bet Gero r6 In Situ ; Sure , there are runners in this who have been competitive in much stronger races , they haven’t however won 4 of their first 7 starts. (4/5 here) . Tash Faithful sticks and he is the best and only bet on the card.
ASCOT BLACKBOOK; Found Ascot too hard today , always tricky with combining first up carnival horses with Belmont form . Two runners in my black book run in the same race , below is a brief summary.
Race 4 Get Out Mick ; He’s going well , he’s pattern of getting back and running on is always against him. Much prefer him at the midweeks , much prefer him away from Ascot. Would love them to try and ride a touch closer or at least get to the outside and get going earlier , doubt it will happen though. @$34 it’s more of a very small fomo bet .
Race 4 Rockin in Vegas ; After 20 starts I’m convinced this horse is ready to finally win a maiden , not sure about 15 rivals in a Saturday Graduation! . The Treasured Legacy form is good for a $61 pop , hopefully he can add some spice to the novelties.
Leonora r4 Ruler Rocket ; Has got panels on these class wise , is going well by his easy win at Mingenew , basically has to handle the dirt. $3.50 is a good price to find out.
Best Bet Leonora r6 Boab Boy ; Won this race last year by 10 lengths , loves the dirt ! The 4kg claimer has already won a couple from a handful of rides and gets him down to a very winnable weight.
Caulfield r4 Zakouma ; Our Melbourne Cup futures bet looks well placed for Pike. I’m not backing today purely on the basis a win gets him a weight penalty for the cup . Hoping he gets back which is his usual pattern and hits the line late . If your not already on for the cup 365 is the only place I can still find $21 . Would rather take that than today’s $6 .
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Tipping 5 favourites at today’s Bunbury meeting. A couple of them have shortened overnight as is usually the case , making them unbackable . I suggest waiting for the percentages to come down and see if they get back out to an acceptable price.
Race 1 Tex N Cee ; Both it’s 2 runs and breeding indicate 1400m 3rd up looks the right formula to go one better. Moose looked like it might need 2 miles ! Has ability though and is the obvious danger.
Race 4 Flying In The Wind : A default selection on finding such a weak race on debut. Trials good enough although times nothing special , there’s simply no form among the opposition . $2 is rock bottom , I’d want better for a single bet. Extreme Ruler has a record of 21 starts for 0, 3 , 4 . He’s the danger .
Race 5 Angel Express ; The scratching of Quedjinup has brought this filly into odds on but unlike the previous race I can justify it. She won softly on debut and If Tex N Cee can frank the form race 1 then she might shorten even more. Likely has spring / summer carnival targets and should be too good for these.
Best Bet R7 Galway Shawl ; Sharp mare who is 4/5 at Bunbury . The form out of her first up run (slow away )is superior to this field and she is clearly the one to beat. The one negative is barrier 1. Lucy will need a gap at some stage to burst through.
Race 8 Treasured Legacy ; Convinced this 3yo filly is stakes class and she was desperately unlucky 2nd up when held up the entire . This one is definitely too short to back but we can stand out in quaddie and hope Pike can navigate barrier 1.
Quaddie (r 5-8) 8 , field , 3 , 14 . $10 per unit
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Radiant Light ; I think if it leads it wins and I’m very confident the plan will be to lead . Fingers crossed I’m right as I need a winner!
Kal r8 The Jester’s Sun ; Has fought out the finish with Opportunistic in both lead up cups so far and the score is 1 all. Not much between them but Jester has been finishing off over the top so I’m backing him to do the same over the longer distance.
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Kalgoorlie r5 Pemberton ; Done very little in 16 starts then at start 17 he won his maiden this track and distance despite still doing a lot wrong. Blinkers on , can he be one of those horses where the penny drops after 1 drought breaking win ? Small play each way at the $16 to find out.
Best Each Way Kalgoorlie r7 Fast Flicker ; Cracking addition of this years Hannans , couldn’t talk you out of backing anything . 6 / 13 over 1400m , 3/5 2nd up , blinkers on , this mare looks set to run a big race from a barrier where she should land just behind a solid tempo . The two runs behind Bonjoy last prep would win this.
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Bunbury r3 Agent Remington / Ze Deel ; AR hit the line nicely first up after being held up for most of the straight and the winner then went within a whisker of winning in Saturday grade. If it can handle the quick jump from 1100 to 1400 2nd up it goes close. ZD fourth on debut from the back over 1200m behind Treasured Legacy . That filly was luckless Saturday and looks stakes class. Both are over $4 and can be backed equally to make a profit.
SRM : 1 & 12 Top 3 .
Best Bet Bunbury r6 Wardikar ; Went close this track and distance first up , this looks no harder and has the added fitness. $5 in an even race is a decent bet.
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Belmont r2 Treasured Legacy ; Ignore the narrow margin as a hot favourite first up , she was forced to take a run in the inferior ground and got the job done. Not convinced 1400m 2nd up is ideal and this is considerably tougher but I think she ends up in stakes grade and can’t let her go round with 51kgs at double figures without some of mine on a heavy place each way basis. Pike has picked Swift Ruler for obvious reasons , rated on top , just chasing the better odds with the big weight difference.
Best Roughie Belmont r6 Get Out Mick ; Should of gone close to placing at big odds again last start and while it’s hard to see him turning the tables on Bosun , he is going well enough to fill a hole or add value to the novelties at $6 the place. Out to 1600m some query on past results but he is going much better at moment.
Best Each Way Belmont r7 Swansee ; Has been ultra competitve all prep and draws a kinder gate to be right in the mix today. Was super keen at 16s , half that now but still a great place bet and value for the win.
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Best Bet Northam r7 Decoration ; Dropping significantly in grade 2nd up and has won twice 2nd up previously as well as a positive track record . (2 starts 1 w 1 2nd) . Suited up in distance , the one to beat.
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Best Bet Kal r5 Don’t Wait For Luck ; Best horse in the race as his weight suggests but only goes up 1/2 kg after the claim. Won 8/18 here , including 2/3 this distance . Should sit close enough from the draw and be very hard to beat. Pads going on a genuine concern on a Kalgoorlie good 4 , an upgrade to a 3 enough to leave it. Also suggest watching for a leader . rail bias in the earlier races which happens quite often here when it’s dry . No bet under that scenario
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Best Bet Randwick r7 Striking Alibi ; She started her career in WA so I’m claiming her ! Her trial although some time ago was elite and she backed it up with a great run over 1200m first up.. She clearly looks best suited to 1400m out of the Furious trifecta , I backed her Wednesday at $4.00 convinced she should be favourite and she is now at $3.50. If the track is playing fair ( predicted to be on speed) , then I will entertain saving on Queen’s Gamble. She is a long way up in grade but has a big turn of foot.
Caulfield r7 Cosmic Crusader Exacta : 1800m and a good barrier have him primed to run a massive race , he is just too short to back for the win . Haven’t seen an “ Expert” tip against Lindermann , who has very strong form and maps to get a picnic in front. I think Cosmic is a huge chance to run him down but not a $2.40 chance. Taking both to win in the Exacta and including Birdman for 2nd . He is a classy animal who will be hitting the line should one of the two not perform. If your keen to back him to win , have something on the Cox Plate futures at $15 , he’s bound to shorten should he win.
1 5 , 1 5 6 $4 per unit
Belmont r7 Pistone ; 3yo going straight from a weak Bunbury maiden demolition job to a Saturday Grad 60+. Not usually a path I’d wager on , however end of the Belmont season is the right time to try with the better horses waiting for Ascot. Maps to find the front and take running down.
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