Best Bet Belmont r7 Prince of Dala ; Tasted defeat for the first time when blocked for a run until too late . Rider also reported the horse was reluctant to race between runners. No doubt they will ride him more aggressive this time and the lead looks up for grabs. Both Dominatus & Wynn Las Vegas provide stiffer opposition than he has previously faced , just think they will struggle to run him down first up off the 3yo staying features campaign.
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Kalgoorlie r5 Door Buster Always hard to bet confidently when the same trainer holds all the key chances however the filly is drawn for a great run and has strong enough city form to go through the grades in Kal. Dancewithme has Stylin form which comes up as our Best Bet in the last. Not as well drawn but the main danger and quinella horse.
Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Stylin ; Won over 1400m at Belmont from barrier 16 last start to make it 4 on the bounce. This is a significant rise in grade but 54kgs for a horse who is 4/4 at Kal and in scintillating form is a luxury that should see the streak continue.
Roebourne r3 Favoured Son , His first run on dirt resulted in an all the way win this track, grade and distance . Drawn to lead again and goes around at $5.
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Belmont r5 Chixfromthestix ; Achy Breaky has the stronger form references , Chix has the map advantage. If Lucy can find the top as I expect , she will be mighty hard to run down over 1000m.
Best Bet Belmont r6 Poblano ; Only defeat was a debut 2nd to Rock The Market who resumed with a top win on Thursday . Has the barrier and Pike to control this race , remembering it’s a transferred c3 , not a Saturday graded race.
Belmont r9 Nicciana ; Only missed the placings once in 6 starts and beat all but the unbeaten Hot N High last start who goes round at odds on in today’s feature .
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Belmont r2 Ace Queen Suited ; If I bet on 2yo’s , it’s almost always on the one with the best race experience / record and she fits the bill. Good run first up and nothing stands out from the trials.
Best Bet r8 Vandoula Jet ; Beaten margins in stronger 3yo races suggest this filly should be hard to beat against the older horses. Not as confident as the 2yo but the best bet from a price perspective.
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Race 3 White Hot ; Clearly a lightly raced 3yo with 2 3rds from 3 starts has the ability and upside to win this, just needs to navigate a tricky barrier .
Best Bet Race 6 Special Counsel ; Maiden winners to c1 is not usually my cup of tea but most of the opposition have had their chance to win a c1 and the claim gets him in ok at the weights. His win was also his first attempt at the mile and he lapped it up. If he handles the wet , he should be winning.
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*The weather is wild but at this stage the meeting is still going ahead. With another big front set to hit this afternoon , I suggest not betting too early , especially the quaddie as nothing worse than investing on a quaddie that pays on 1 or two legs .
Best Bet Bunbury r8 Linchpin ; c3 win followed by a narrow 3rd to Ladies Pro in a Saturday 3yo , it has the right form. On a day littered with very short priced favourites , this is the one that is backable at $2.90.
Quaddie (r5-8) 13 2 field 6 .; The first three legs have odds on favs, taking on the 3rd one (Friars Legacy) to try and get some value in the quaddie . $11 per unit.
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Best Belmont Multi ;
Race 1 Basset Hound (Win) : Only won a maiden first up and now drops 100m , 4 weeks between runs into a grad 1000m. The price is rock bottom but I’m banking his turn of acceleration will be too sharp for the small field.
Race 3 She’s A Splinter (Place); Trainer Josh Brown is hot off a midweek city double and his 2yo’s have been running well all season. Went within a whisker first up , made amends 2nd up , despite still being very green, hitting the line like the extra 100m will suit and drawn for a great run. Not sure why Pike has jumped ship. Playing the win as a single and place in the multi as my best each way bet of the day.
Race 5 Antique Star (Win) ; Stayers , especially the 2nd/ 3rd stringers can mix their form or as we like to say “take turns”. She’s apprentice ridden from a wide gate and goes around close to even money . The jockey is doing a great job for the stable , the horse has a lap on them ability wise and she rounds out the multi as the horse that has the best winning chance on the program imo , It;s just not the type of race to have a big single bet on.
If you shop around you can get $8.50 / $9 presently.
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Belmont r1 The Prancing Pony : She’s blessed with natural early speed and barrier 1 , a huge asset for Belmont 1000m races , even more so for the inexperienced 2yo’s. Jockey Shaun Mcgruddy who was on board at her most recent trial win will have plenty of options depending on how much pressure is on up front and no matter what she will have the rail . Naturally the two with race experience in Brave Move (2nd on debut in a Sat race ) and Beyond a Doubt ( won his trial on same day as Pony in quicker time) will be hardest to beat.
Betting Strategy : Only 7 runners (pay 1 & 2 ) makes it pretty hard to have a win & place bet but the current odds $8.50/$3.40 knowing she will be on the rail are reasonable. I’m going to trust she can at least beat the other debutantes home
Boxed Quinella 1 2 8 : Main bet on the race hoping pony adds the value
SRM / boxed trifecta 1 2 8 all top 3 .
Best Bet Belmont r3 Prince of Dala ; Sat wide on debut and pounced over 1300m , crossed from barrier 15/15 2nd up and bolted in over 1400m . Better than midweek grade and from the kinder draw he should get every possible.
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Belmont r4 Hot N High ; She’s 4/4 and has never really looked like losing . While she didn’t bolt in first up , she did it from the breeze and you would have to think she will get better and better. Fast Harry is talented and is trialing the house down. Obvious quinella , I think she will hold him off .
Best Bet Belmont r6 Lord Shiva ; Not many horses can hold him out early , so naturally not many can run him down over 1000m when he’s on song. Another obvious quinella with Xentaro who has gone to another level this prep and has drawn to settle on his back and have a late crack.
Best Each Way Belmont r9 Battle Commander ; Did too much work first up but battled on hard and never shirked the task. Looks the obvious leader at his pet distance and is each way odds.
Multi Win Win Place ; currently about $11.50 .
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Best Bet Belmont r7 Snitzalate ; 3yo filly who was going for 3 in a row this prep when anchored by the 61kgs. Now goes up in grade against the older horses and after Nottle’s claim gets in 2kg under the minimum. She should savage the line with no weight and prove too strong late.
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Kalgoorlie r1 Quiet Goddess (Place) ; Brings metro/provincial form to the country and while it will take a good ride from the awkward draw (7/8) , $2 a place in a field of 8 should go close to collecting.
SRM 7 Top 2 , 6 Top 3 ; Royal Guardian (7) deserves to jump fav but no value in odds on.
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Best Value Ascot r3 Kay Tee Why ; Started 2.70 in a similar race first up and Pike rode for luck on the rail , was never going to happen. Drawn 4 this time I think he gets last crack at them down the outside and in a field of 6 he will be close enough to threaten. Intriguing race and $6.50 is enticing enough.
Best Bet Ascot r6 Swingman ; 3 starts at the track & distance for 3 2nds , the last two to a very handy filly in Snitzalatte. Maps beautifully right behind the speed whereas the favourite has drawn awkwardly .
SRM Kings Court (1) Top 4 Swingman (3) Top 2 . The Top weight is very likely to find the front which has been highly advantageous recently and has won 3 of his last 4 over 1000m. This is a harder race but he should take running down on a top 4 basis.
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Best Bet Ascot r6 Hedawood ; Ran well first up over 1000m . Looks better suited out to 1200 where he has performed ok in stronger grade in the past.
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MEGABET Northam r8 Smooth Chino ; Things haven’t quite gone to plan in his step into open company just yet but I’m tipping 3rd time lucky today. First up he beat all bar today’s main rival Rope Them In , who is dynamic first up and managed to settle on his back and finish too strong. He then went to The Quokka and unfortunately blew the start which was the end of his chances. Rope took his medicine from the wide gate and savaged the line by saving all the ground up the inside while Chino came wide and still hit the line. Today’s confidence comes from the map. Reunited with regular jockey Austin Galati (6/6) , i would be flabbergasted if he doesn’t sit in the first 3 , providing he doesn’t miss away again. Rope has two options , snag back again and try and zap them all , or try and slot in midfield. If he slots in he becomes a serious challenger , posted deep or giving away a big head start would be some sort of effort. Track is currently rated a soft 5. Any upgrade is definitely in Chino’s favor and there is also a 1kg weight swing .
SRM No 7 Top 2 , No 9 Top 4 ; Sisu Warrior ran out of his skin in the Quokka , making his run with and finishing alongside Smooth Chino. Come back in magnificent order and can give cheek from the good draw.
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Best Bet Ascot r4 Rock n the Jam ; Was well fancied to beat virtually the same field last start and did it comfortably. Up 200m and 2kg but simply looks better than them.
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Best Bet Geraldton R6 Snippety Legend ; 6 starts this track and distance for 5 wins and 1 3rd. Ran 2nd in town last start and looks extremely hard to beat back at Gero.
SRM N1 Top 3 N2 Top 2 ; The Horseman is not an easy ride but getting out to 1400m suits and he is a clear danger. Playing Games is in form but not as effective at 1400m in the past so I will concentrate on the other 2.
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Best Each Way Ascot r5 Ganaji Wangkathe ; Only brings country (Geraldton) maiden form to the city , however has at least hit the line into the placings over 1400m in two starts. Of the two favourites , Miss Santa Cors has only placed 1 in 10 starts and Free To Fly has raced exclusively between 1000m to 1200m . $9.50 each way seems good value .
SRM N0’s 1 & 3 top 4. Rocking In Broome Ran 2nd on Debut over 1685m behind Invincible Thief , not bad form for a $26 pop . Likely to get buried on the rail from barrier 1 but if there’s room he might run into the money and add value to the exotics.
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Best Quinella Albany r3 No’s 2 & 3 ; Eternally Yours looks awfully hard to beat dropping from a narrow 2nd in a c2 this track & distance to a moderate maiden. Gilded Reign has finished close enough in metro / provincial maidens to be some sort of threat from the good draw for CJP. The fixed odds SRM is north of $3 .
Best Bet Albany r5 Wiluna Lass ; Very speedy 3yo filly who is dropping a long way in grade and should lead this comfortably for Lucy Fiore who has won on her before.
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Best Bet Ascot r7 Bonjoy ; Little separated Bonjoy , Fast Flicker and London’s Image in the Bunbury Stakes and the other two have a significant weight swing against our tip. Flicker is 5 weeks between runs with bar plates . London’s Image likely gets a head start but not as big as the one she got at Bunbury with Bonjoy putting in a remarkable finishing burst. That’s the way to ride her and she looks far better suited to the walk and sprint over 1600m last start where she gave them all weight .
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Geraldton r4 The Horseman ; Beaten a head in a 3 way photo first up after bombing the start , being hard ridden to catch the field and exploding late in a remarkable effort over 1100m. With a cleaner getaway and an extra 100m , it’s hard to see him not turning the tables on the other too. That leaves Playing Games and Scurgeofthewest who are dropping in distance deep into campaigns.
Best Bet Geraldton r6 Magnifeera; Is 2/2 at 1400m and is drawn to get every possible for Lucy Fiore who has been unstoppable in feature races lately , hopefully we don’t jinx the run.
Geraldton r7 True Player ; Looked a moral in the Albany Cup and although it was a narrow margin , it got the job done with another Lucy 10/10 peach. Rocking Society gets 1.5kg swing but still has to carry 60kg from an awkward gate , therefore I think the fav will get a softer run and still out sprint him at the finish. Invincible Thief is in career best form and can pose a threat. Rock In Wonder should lead and take running down .
SRM No 3 Top 2 , No 9 Top 3 , No 13 Top 4 ;
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