Ascot r2 Handled. On a very tough day Australia wide this selection put in a real eye catcher last start, flashing home from well back for 2nd behind an inform horse. Distance a query but at $7.50 eway in a field of 8, gets the nod from Lucky Duck.
Best Bet ; Morphettville r2 Astrolobe, Like backing Melbourne form in Adelaide. This one has solid enough form and was scratched from a winnable race this week to cross the border which shows stable confidence
Very slim pickings today so I will talk about the punting dilemma of whether to back up on horses that have let you down.
pr4 Chin Strap; The Positive is Damien Oliver replacing Jake Casey. That should equal massive improvement. $8.50 for a maiden in a listed race however looks unders and I'll be risking.
pr7 Jestajingle; Punters are still scratching their heads and fuming at Peter Hall's decision to race 3 and 4 wide on speed last start over 1200m on a swooper. He has been riding very poorly for a while now and the fact that he rides again with the rise in distance to 1400m which is a query means I'll be risking.
Here's hoping Murphy's law doesn't strike again.
Best Bet Mooney Valley R3 Four Carat; Has been racing consistently in much stronger races than this, a last start 4th in the Sandown Cup behind Melbourne Cup 4th placegetter Qewy over 3200m. Pays for it with sharp rise in weight but $2.70 vs $1.85 for Bullish Stock who ran 3rd in a BM78 last start.
Inters Heat 7
Series favourite Hectorjayjay goes around at prohibitive odds again and has the speed to cross and lead all the way again. One warning tonight is no driver will want to cook there horse in their third run in a week one week before the final, especially if they already have enough points to qualify. Polemarker John of Arc has been very brave from tough draws and gets his chance to test the favourite. Suggested Bet Quinella 1 & 5 .
Heat 8 Well the mocca worked again Tuesday when the unbeatable Lennytheshark was poorly driven and only managed 4th. Draws the pole tonight but has a very fast beginner drawn next door. With no backline however leaders back would be perfect spot for all so the 2 gets it if desires. If crossed early will probably come straight off and sit outside lead or have a crack to get it back. Either way should redeem. Suggested bet First four 1, 2 3 4 8, s2, s2.
Heat 9 Wide open as no Hector or Lenny involved with tactics so important and hard to read. A few of these need maximum points to secure a runin final. Smolda is the favourite, he is pretty one dimensional in that if he doesn't get the front he will keep trucking along in the breeze and try and out stay them. Tonight's increase in distance suits but too skinny quote for mine. Simply Susational has the speed to lead from one which at Gloucester Park is a huge advantage. Bling it On is in career best form now they drive him with a sit. If he gets the right run he is very dangerous. Beaudiene Boaz is talented enough but has a very tricky draw to overcome. Suggested Bet , Bling itOn each way.
Quaddie (r5-8) 1 2, 1, 1 3 6 7, 1 2 cost $16 / unit
Best Bet R5 Ideal Alice ; Usually races in open company and from barrier one over 2100m should lead all the way. The presence of NZ mare A Piccadilly Princess, also very talented and equal fav tonight means we get a backable price.
Best Bet Bunbury race 9 Black Freda; Blackfriars mare tasted defeat for the first time last start, taking a day to wind up and running on into 2nd. Fitter for the run, can easily atone today in the hopefully lucky last. We sure are due for some and a decent ride.
Canterbury race 5 Sugar Bay Leonard; racing well this campaign with strong form lines. Has the ability and racing pattern to dominate this race. Slight concern is the jockey change to Josh "below" Parr.
The First round of heats went to script with all favs winning. There since has been numerous scratchings and the two Victorian stablemates Lennytheshark and Hectorjayjay dominating betting both tonight and the series.
Tonight Bunbury hosts 3 heats, for some reason again over the 2100m, I believe 1700m would of been more interesting however it is what it is.
Heat 4; No Hector or Lenny makes it both the weakest and open heat. To me it comes down to who leads. If Run Oneover gets there first it takes a stack of beating. If Freyberg holds up it's anybodies race. While Our Jimmy Johnstone was dissapointing Friday it will get a very soft run tonight and might be place value.
Heat 5 ; Hectorjayjay is $1.14 and drawn for a stroll in the park (2). No one will want to take him on and earn no points for the final. Phoenix Warrior is paying $9.50 a place in a field of 8.
Heat 6; Lennytheshark is currently $1.70 due to the tricky draw of inside the back line. In my opinion he is simply way too good regardless and this is a great price if you like backing short price fav's especially with the boost options with some bookies.
Bunbury Quaddie ; R5-8 Not much value but for a bit of fun interest this quaddie looks a moral.
2, 8, 1 2 3, 1 3 4 5. @ $12 a unit lets hope it pays more than $12 !!!!
Lucky Duck Going All In on our one best bet today.
Ascot Race 4 Lenience; If I'm tipping State Solicitor (check main blog) in the Winterbottom then how could I possibly not like Lenience. Took that galloper the entire straight last start to reel in Lenience over same distance. No such opposition today and very confident it can lead all the way.
Tonight Gloucester Park comes alive when the best pacers from Australasia contest the first round of Inters heats. Tonight's heats look tricky with the big guns drawn awkwardly so I will concentrate on the series overall.
Two Victorian stablemates dominate the betting, Hectorjayjay and Lennytheshark. I am tipping reigning champion Lennytheshark to go back to back at the slightly better odds. (3.50 v 2.70). He has already proven he can handle a tough inters series comprising of three rounds of heats and a final, has the services of champion reinsman Chris Alford and handles Gloucester Park. He is also very versatile in that he can do plenty of work at both ends of the race if required. Hector is the new star, yet to race at Gloucester Park and more suited to sit and sprinting which is difficult to do at Gloucester Park.
Roughies with a slim chance look to be;
Restrepo; If drawn to lead is hard to run down.
Our Jimmy Johnstone; In great form and has the local experience, very versatile racing pattern. Great place chance at odds.
Tonights Heats
R4 Guaranteed either leads or takes a sit on Lennytheshark. Our Jimmy Johnstone gets a great run behind them. Bet First Four 8, 1 2 , 1 2 3 5 10, field. $56 for 100%
R6 Weakest of the heats with Bettors Fire drawn to lead all the way. Bet Bettors Fire WIN
R8 Bling It On or Restrepo to lead, Hectorjayjay to try and swamp them. No Bets.
Race 7 is the 4yo classic and the NZ visitor has drawn horribly inside the back line. Kiwi horses generally race on huge tracks with plenty of room and Gloucester Park is the complete opposite. Also a big trip to overcome first up in a top quality field. Impossible to knock his form and the stable is full of genuine superstars. Worth watching just for the spectacle. There are horses in this race with picket fence form lines starting at massive prices. Picking the right one is impossible but at $41 I'll give Harry Hoo a slim chance of causing the upset.
Best Bet is R1 Johnny Disco. $3.50 for a richly talented pacer drawn to lead with champion driver A.C. Lewis in the bike. The NZ all star stable start the hot favourite Piccadilly Princess from 4 but I'm happy to take it on, 4yo mare welcomed to Perth with 37 degree heat over 2536m.
If your new to Harness Racing tonight is a great time to check it out.
Best Bet Eagle Farm race 8 Better Land; Certainty beaten (like every loser I Tip!) last start, Jim Byrne owes followers a winner. Drawn and weighted perfectly.
Ballarat race 1 Cheeky Babe; Melbourne leading trainer Darren Weir's home track should kick off with a win, progressing nicely and placed to perfection.
race 5 Galaxy Raider; Always shown above average ability, finally put it together last start braining an easier race with the handbrake on so hopefully goes on with it.
race 7 Speedeor; Another Weir runner who has won both starts this prep jumping from a maiden to a stakes race which takes a smart horse. One of the bets of the day.
Ascot race 2 Secret Assault; One at massive odds on a really tough program. Will go hammer and tongs the whole way, hopefully all the way. Small each way the go.
race 4 Sasso Circus; Damian Oliver rides for LDR trainer Jason Miller. Track record reads 4 starts for 3 wins and a second including 1 at distance. $8 currently while fav Cronkite 2 starts for zippo and never tried at distance. Good each way value.
race 9 Jestajingle; Bred in the purple and lightly raced, big step up in grade but covered them with a couple of strides last start. Best bet on card.
Ascot Early Quaddie (r2-5) 2 4 12, 1 4 5 6, 7 8, 2($24)
Main Quaddie (r6-9) 3 5 11, field, 6 7 , 15. ($96)
Railway Stakes; SEE HOMEPAGE
Guineas; Throw a dart at the form guide. Impossible race.
Best Bet; Northam race 4 Amaliemoo ; 3rd on debut following two trial wins and finds a weak maiden to notch up a victory for Lucky Duck Trainer Jason Miller.
race 1 Floyd; Trialing like a winner, already backed like it's a good thing. Option for multi players or early quaddie standout.
race 6 Dark Mahal; Blackfriar's4yo Gelding again for Jason Miller who was crying out for the trip when smashing a maiden field including most of today's main rivals.
race 7 Macavity; Showed promise for Godolphin in NSW before winning with ease first up at York. Tougher here but has upside.
Early Quaddie ( r1-4) 4, field, field, 11.
Main Quaddie (r5-8) 1 2 7 9 10 11 , 1, 3, field.
Best Bet: Ascot r3 Chin Strap; Giving this maiden one more chance. Dissapointing first up but ran an encouraging 2nd behind the flying Sweet Ora 2nd up. Scratching of I am Incredible has made it pretty short so hoping for better before jump. There is always Superpick and other boost products to help.
r5 Tomohawk: Another runner for the father and son Casey combo, slightly up in class but won with ease first up and can repeat.
r6 River Dance: Down in class on recent encouraging efforts, ready to win.
r7 Dolusky; Been racing very well in slightly easier. Good each way value in a wide open race.
Sunshine Coast r13 Toni May; Race 13! don't see that too often at a thoroughbred meeting, big fields due to Saturday losing half their card to the weather. If we're cashed up then Toni May was beaten in town at a short quote last start but it was on a soft track. Back to dry and Sunshine Coast where it was flying before that race.
Best Bet: Mount Barker race 7 Miss Somebody, The king of The Great Southern Steve Wolfe looks to have the last at his mercy with this galloper.
race 4 Dream Merger : if he brings his A game he should prove too classy.
Quaddie ( r4-7)
1, field,field,11@ $154 for 100%
Todays racing looks light on specials, especially at a backable price so we will stick to our absolute best.
Best Bet; Ascot Race 8 Chocolate Holic, thinking they were heading to next weeks Railway Stakes I was expecting to see this untapped son of Blackfriars in the Peters (r6). With stablemates in that race at least he looks a moral in this field.
Sandown r9 : Cool Chap; Should be at peak fitness, hopefully rated a little better in front and can go one better.
Multi punters can consider Mr6 Mortons Fork and Pr3 State Solicitor, should win but too short to tip.
Share your best bets with other ducks in the comments and get involved with our own son of Blackfriars in our inaugral racing partnership, details on the racing page of our website.
Best Bet Moonee Valley r6 Black Sheep; When Darren Weir has a horse in the zone they usually stay there for a long tome. This galloper fits the bill with a career best performance at it's most recent run at the same track and distance in the same grade.
Moonee Valley r5 Gun Case; Darren Weir trained sprinter who is always competitive in these 955m races. Tricky barrier but horses often sit 3 wide and swoop on the bend over this distance.
Hopefully a race to race double for the master trainer and gun apprentice.
Best Bet R3 Slick Mover , Has run two 2nds at it's two starts. I don't rate the fav especially at even money so I'm happy to tip Slick Mover.
R1 Grindabella, Following up our tip from cup day when it tried valiantly with a big weight and was run down late by a horse who won it's next start on Saturday. Very competitive race but with Randy Tan giving some weight relief happy to stick at around $4.40.
R7 Black Freda, Unbeaten Blackfriar's mare in another very winnable race. Go the Blackfriars!!!!
Best Bet Bendigo r6 Ceylon, Had time for a nice cup of tea when bolting in a maiden last start. 2nd horse has well and truly franked the form since.
Ascot r4 Rising Sea, Best horse in race, Best Jockey in race.
After the first two tips of the carnival saluting, it has been too light on winners for our liking so we are going to end with a bang and blast out to glory.
Best Bet Flemington r3 Francis of Assisi ; Godolphin travelling companion for it's cup team that bolted in the Bendigo cup at it's Aussie debut. Fav Tom Melbourne has had a tough campaign trying to qualify for the cup and when it gets tired late the lightly raced 7yo will be swallowing him up.
r8 The Quarterback; $6.50 for the reigning Newmarket handicap winner (same track and distance). Each way all day.
There is another huge quaddie jackpot so here we go (r6-9)
field, 3 5, 3 6, 3 8 10
Ascot
Quaddie (r5-8) 1 2 4 6 8, 3 7, 5 7, 6 8.
Doomben r5 Better Land ; Ex Moody Galloper who was once tipped as a future group one winner but never gone on with it. First run in it's new home in Qld was a easy kill and can definitely repeat the dose here.
Best Bet R6 Clearly Innocent ; Have been waiting for this horse to appear at the carnival. Richly talented and has been tuned up with two runs in unsuitable races.
R3 Murt the Flirt; Always good to have an omen bet on ladies day and this horse has the form on the board to back it up.
R5 Exocet ; Huge run last start in worst part of track, finishing next to group one winner.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) 3 16, 4, fld, 13 @ $22 for 100%
Main Quaddie (r6-9) 11, 4, 1, field @$18 for 100%
Gawler r2 Hidden Fortune: brings city maiden form to the provincials for leading trainer.
Hawkesbury r5 Circular; very strong formlines for this race
r6 The Gavel; races on speed which gives it advantage over main rival Pursuit of Honour who gets back.
Quaddie (r5-8) 2, 3, 1 4, field @$16 for 100%
Really looks a good day to make some coin. Good Luck.
Champagne Frothies and Winners
Best Bet Mr10 Silent Sedition, hopefully we have money left by the last and are sober enough to put it on . This mare can really ping home and is on track to have a crack at Perth's Railway Stakes.
Ascot Bets:
r3 Grindabella , tough ask for a mare to lump 59kgs but the opposition is very ordinary.
r8 Royal Missile, stablemate to fav but number one jockey rides and proven at the distance.
Bunbury Bets
r5 Mica Lil, has much more upside than the other runners and won brilliantly last start.
r6 All settled, ready to break through against a talentless field
r7 Big Caroline, big weight again but carried it before and been racing against better opposition than meets today.
Cup preview on seperate post earlier, party on Ducks.
The Melbourne Cup is one of the hardest races in Australia to make money off excluding the Makybe Diva era. 24 runners, huge international contingent, many unseen until the big day. It would be unaustralian to not have a crack however so here we go.
No6 Hartnell; The Fav is the best horse in this race no doubt. The worry is the very end of the 3200m especially if it pulls in running. If it settles I can't get the Turnball stakes run out of my head when it destroyed them including Jameka still under a hold.
No 20 Oceanographer: The second fav has been heavily supported as predicted by yours truly after two ultra impressive efforts in Australia. Will relish the extra distance and be the one storming over the top of them.
No13 Heartbreak City my value choice is an out and out stayer with a good turn of foot, perfect for a Melbourne cup.
There is a massive jackpot on the first four which will take some getting but with flexi betting you can get a small percentage of a massive dividend for a smallish outlay.
1st 6 20
2nd 6 12 13 17 20
3rd 6 8 12 13 17 19 20
4th 1 6 8 9 12 13 17 18 19 20 23
A $1 unit would cost $320 , $50 would get you 15%
Good Luck Punters, enjoy the day and back winners.
Best Bet : Mr4 Oceanographer: Import trying to force his way into the Cup Tuesday. The tempo and track bias were against him in the Geelong cup but his effort to steam home said be on me next start.
Other Bets : Mr3 Sheidel: WA mare who is airborne, suited at the weight scale and one of the world's best J Morreira to ride.
Mr 7: Sacred Elixir; Derby Fav who to my eye is the best stayer in the race. Respect to Swear but winning a gruelling 2500m race at start 5 looks a tough ask.
Quaddie (r6-9) field, 1 , 1 2 4 7 11 16 , 5 8 9 11. (obv flexi betting required)
Ascot Tips
Pr1 Golden Trigger: If it can get over from outside gate it will take some catching.
Pr4 Forever Diamonds : Looks the best bet of the program, one of several big chances for the wizard Willy Pike.
Pr8 Brackets : Pike again from barrier 1 in a pretty moderate bunch.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) 1 9, 1 , 1 3 4 5, 3. $8 for 100%
Main Quaddie (r5-8) 8, 1 2 5 7 9 10, 3 4 7, 3 $18 for 100%