Best Bet Pinjarra r8 Detango; Ran on hard first up to just miss in what I rate as a stronger form race. Concede Lorentino will be the one to catch back in class and distance, looks a good quinella.
Pinjarra r6 Caralabek; Going on impressive stats of distance 2 from 3, track 1 from 1 and first up 2 from 3 vs the obvious class in the race Barzinho who is 0 from 4 at distance.
Best Bet York r7 Slick Mover; Shouldn't take long for this one to break it's maiden tag and finds a very easy race to do so first up.
Oakbank r6 Lord Of The Song; Great Eastern Steeple and the unique track and distance makes it a tough affair over the jumps. Lord OTS has far superior track and distance stats to any other runner.
Best Bet Ascot r5 Regal Class: In a very average race this 3yo filly at least has some class, going for three in a row and this no harder. $2.50 seems fair enough with Pike on.
Caulfield r7 Miss Gunpowder: First up for new stable, the powerful and flying Hayes yard, this mare has a class advantage on her rivals if ready to add to her good fresh stats.
Forgive we Lord for providing a winner on Good Friday but at least I'm sharing it with good ducks.
Best Bet; Ascot r7 Debellatio; Sires produce fav who ran a slashing third in the 1200m Karrakatta Plate, flying home from well back and just missing. The winner Lucy Mae was flat out on the corner but lifted to scramble in so the extra 200m should help Debellatio turn the tables.
Best Bet Ascot r7 Quilista ; This 3yo is going places, building a picket fence and really can't see it not adding another picket. Pike on, races on speed and the one danger Variation has to give Quilista 4kgs and make up two lengths from their last clash. I'm really surprised black figures are available.
Randwick r6 Bonneval ; Hopefully tipping before the first in Sydney today will not be doomed by another track bias like last week. It definitely proves the difficulty in betting early. Presuming a fairer track albeit still wet, tipping the two NZ fillies to fight out the Oaks. Devise ran a close 2nd to Bonneval in the NZ Oaks and you can back both to make a profit. They streeted the rest and like the males there are no standout Aussie stayers among the 3yo fillies.
Best Bet Ascot r3 Remember Berlin; Liking the 2nd to Quilista first up as a form reference. Races up front and there is no Quilista's in this field.
Warwick Farm r6 Hunter Jack; Inform horse who handles the heavy ten better than most.
Best Bet Geraldton r8 Falcon Crest: Geraldton cup and Falcon Crest is coming from a 4th in the Bunbury Cup. Came from a fair way back that day, looked a chance before only holding ground late. Slight drop back in distance and class should assist. Has won in town and has the services of country cups king P. hall.
Ballarat r8 Lips Aerios; Weir runner who races best fresh proven by comfortable Edenhope Cup win 2nd up. 3 from 4 at distance and although this Bm78 is slightly harder opposition, has the scope to win again.
Best Bet Randwick r7 Gingernuts; Day 1 of The Championships and The Kiwi's have a massive say in this years Australian Derby. NZ Derby Winner Gingernuts looped them from well back first up in Australia and beat them arrogantly. Back up in trip and wet conditions only make me more confident. How could you not go for a horse named Gingernuts.
Randwick r6 Frolic; Hard to see the Golden Slipper form not be the right form for the sires. Frolic beat the slipper winner two starts ago albeit finding the right part of the track, then franked it by coming home like a steam train to run 2 in the slipper. Tulip was the other mammoth slipper run caught wide and still attacking the line for 3rd like 1400m will suit. Tulip draws 2 which probably doesn't help today while Frolic draws out.
Locally I must say the fields are pretty disappointing including the Karrakatta and Oaks. SEANNIE is probably our only genuine above average 2yo however barrier 2 and A Mitchell counts me out as a betting proposition. My favouritehorse at the moment Man Booker should win again but is too short with the 59kgs.
Ascot r6 Sweet Ora; Always cautious with short priced fav's first up but has a clear class edge on her rivals. $2.30 currently is as short as I would accept.
Best Bet Ascot r6 Rosewood Hill; These midweek staying races are usually lotteries so when you find one with 1-1 distance stats and 3-2,1 track stats it must be a great chance. 58.5kgs fair lump of weight for a mare to carry if looking for negatives, I'm banking on superior class.
Best Bet Mornington r7 The Gold Trail; The winner of this race gets a run in the Caulfield Cup. Godolphin have brought this fellow over for that very reason and his form overseas rates him an absolute moral in this field. If he has settled from his travels he simply wins. The price has shortened to 2.25 as I type, wouldn't be suprised if it jumped odds on.
Rosehill r4 Spectroscope ; Another Godolphin raider, this time moved permanently to Oshea. First up in Australia was most impressive with plenty left in the tank. 53kgs, Heavy Ten should be ok for a European the Godolphin Double looks a great bet.
Ascot r6 At The Ready; Traditional derby lead up and I'm going the horse jumping in grade but showing enormous staying potential over the fav from the all powerful Peters camp who won at listed level last start.
Ascot r8 Presentatie; Wouldn't usually tip this horse, especially on a Saturday but it at least has metro form where most of the field are horribly out of form or coming from remote bush tracks. Pike to ride for Williams.
Best Bet Mooney Valley r5 Ellicazoom; Wa filly who has gone down narrowly in two runs in Melbourne and finds a much easier race to break through. Should lead for a long way, the last bit stepping up to 1600m the test.
Mooney Valley r7 Star Turn; 3yo who has gone down fighting in the two Flemington big group 1 sprints. Not as well suited at weights but drawn perfectly. Hopefully sits on WA speedster Sheidel and goes bang. The other WA runner Rock Magic absolutely flies fresh and will be swooping hard. At $9 worth at least a saver.
Quaddie (r5-8) 1 4, 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 10, 6 13, 5 cost $32 @ 100%
Bunbury r8 Material Man; The fav in this years Bunbury Cup is clearly the one to beat. While not thrashing most of it's opposition last start it was ridden outside the leader against it's usual pattern and fought on strong to hold on. It does rise significantly in weight today so I'm really banking on jockey to take cover and save him for the straight to counter the weight rise. It is slowly drifting to a backable price (2.45). All it's wins (8/12) have been on good tracks, today's track is rated a soft 5 and with rain still hanging around it's worth noting he is yet to win on soft ( 2 goes for 1 2nd)
A couple of other bet types if too short. (won 2.80)
First Four
3 from 2 4 6 7 8 9 10 boxed($210 for 100%) spend what you can afford for flexi (no good)
Quaddie (r6-9) field,2,3,field ($121 for 100%) the problem with this one is the two middle legs are very short so need one, preferably both field legs to be rough results to make a profit.
Paid $333.60 money for jam.
Best Bet Sandown r5 Rockstar Rebel; Massive class dropper from Saturday 3yo grade to today's affair. Has previously placed in stakes level. One Query is the soft ground. Was much more excited by the $3.10 last night, now into $2.40.
Best Bet; Bunbury r8 Man Booker ; Bunbury Stakes and after watching Man Booker give Great Shot wind burn last start I'm switching sides. $2.65 looks like a gift in it's current form. Bet of the Year so far.
Bunbury Quaddie (r6-9)
1 2 3 4 5 6 10 11
1 8
3
1 3 4 5 8 10 11 12 13 14 16
Best BetFlemington r5 He or She; The scratching of fan favourite Black Heart Bart leaves us with 6 runners in the group 2 Blamey Stakes. Weir still has 3 in it including now odds on fav Tosen Stardom. Even though it is pay 1&2 only I give He or She a huge chance of causing the upset. Comes into this race 2nd up at his favourite track and distance. Has run 2nd to Bart in the past, rattled home to win first up, won the same race last year and at $9 definitely worth a go each way.
Flemington r9 Portman; Last start ran 2nd down the outside on a day where practically nothing else made ground all day, failing to catch the leader on a big rail bias. As long as the track is playing fair today it should make amends.
Ascot r1 Saker; The favourite Fathnoxious is too short for my liking, coming out of fillies and mares grade. Saker is a frustrating horse, showing much better ability on occasions than his record suggests. Two starts at track and distance for 1 win 1 2nd however says it will be in the mix and your getting $8 each way. Terror force is the other overs in the race.
Ascot r8 Blustery; Lower level WA distance races are tough but Blustery is racing very consistently lately. Stake your bet heavier on place and I'm very confident of a profit.
Golden Slipper day with 5 group ones at Rosehill. I rarely bet on 2yo races anywhere but a capacity field on a heavy bog track is a complete raffle. It's a shame such a big day has been dealt these conditions however it will be viewing only for the entire program for me.
Best Bet Ascot r7 Touch of Silver; From powerful inform stable and has a solid record of winning 2 from 3. Beat a similar field last start, using it's powerful finishing sprint which it can repeat today.
St Patrick Day is a great day for omens so here'sa few I've found.
Ascot r2 Patrocity
Ascot r3 Jack Irish
Ascot r6 Patrimonio
Best Bet Bunbury r7 Material Man; Very progressive middle distance galloper that has the upside, weight advantage and ability to win Today's listed event on route to the Bunbury Cup. $2 is rock bottom odds however and I'm expecting money for pikes mount Falcon Crest and Tonto to push it outplus boost options.
First 4: 4, 2 7 10, 2 5 7 10, 2 5 7 10.
Mildura r7 Ample on Offa; Out of all the runners in the market, my selection has been racing against higher class opposition including a win last start. Excellent distance stats and dare say it would be fav if the actual fav wasn't trained by Weir. Tricky barrier the one negative.
Best Bet Ascot r4 Three Votes; Very progressive short course sprinter who did too much work first up then atoned second up. Drops to the minimum weight and looks best on ground by a big space.
Ascot r3 Jestajingle; Absolutely smoked them first up last prep then had no luck in stronger company. Trialed like a good thing recently.
Ascot Early Quaddie; r1-4; fld,fld,13,11
Best Bet Pinjarra r2 Lorentinio; Trainer Jim Taylor very rarely travels to the provincials unless he is super confident. This runner is dropping to maiden grade after running 3rd on debut at Ascot. The other fancies are on debut so factoring in the race experience.
Pinjarra r8 Yeah Dardy; This prep has won a maiden and placed in a 3yo handicap, both at Ascot at overall starts 2 and 3. Main danger Vandemonian who's last run was good enough, has a poor strike rate (1 from 19). Head clash will probably lead and is improving for novelty players.
Best Bet Flemington r8 Northwest Passage. Waterhouse 3yo against the older horses. Has won 5 out of 6 including two very soft wins in Tasmania. (Guineas and Derby). Last start looked in trouble before fighting them off. The older stayers in this have run big races in big races but very rarely seem to win.
Ascot r4 Keeper Keen; Supremacy Stakes for the 2yo's heading to the Karrakatta. This unbeaten fellow has trialed very nicely to show he is ready for this 100k race. Clearly has the best form lines and although giving a fair bit of weight to rivals should prove too classy.
