Best Bet Cranbourne r2 She's A Pluck; Back 100m and fitter, won't get an easier maiden to breakthrough.
Scone r7 Moher; Darley sponser the cup and I'm tipping they can get their money back quickly. Pretty much a re run of the Hawkesbury Cup and I think the Weight swing against Fabrizio is enough to turn the tables.
Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Harry Thomas; The extra fitness, inside barrier and weight advantage should help Harry go one better than it's last start 2nd.
Best Bet Ascot r2 Karlakee Miss; In form filly who has dropped slightly in class and distance to find a very suitable race.
Sandown r5 Chateau Cheval ; Already had seven runs this prep for 1w 5 2nds 1 3rd, so consistency is not a problem but winning maybe. The drying ground and barrier draw/ speed map point to it getting every chance for another well deserved breakthrough.
Best Bet Northam r6 Prince Turbo; Won't find an easier race to break it's maiden tag. Been running on over 1400m in slightly tougher maidens. Good Luck LDR Trainer Sarah Miller!!!!
Northam r8 Madassa; It's last run was in the 2015 Winterbottom stakes where it ran 4th to Buffering. This is a cracking edition of the Northam Stakes, not that far off Winterbottom quality. It has 3 recent trials to prepare, winning all 3. I am very confident it will be in front at the 100m but very concerned about the last 100m due to the long lay off and quality swoopers in race. Stable is going well. I suggest waiting to see if we can get a bit better place price to stack bet 40/60 for security.
Pakenham r8 Data Point; Overnight scratchings have left it pretty short but it is classes above this field and the 1400m first up looks perfect to swoop from midfield providing the track allows this. Being the last we will know any patterns.
Best Bet Gold Coast r5 Religify; Rarely tip a horse first up but doubt Waller sends one here not ready and will prove extremely hard to run down.
Ascot r4 Pushin Shapes; Have liked this horse since it's very impressive debut win at 2. Things went amiss after a setback in it's first prep but it is finally putting it together now and seems to be relishing the increase in distances. Steps up another 300m and carries 58kgs but not a strong field.
Morphettville r6 Kenedna; SA oaks and Kenedna put them away in the lead up. Egg Tart is the new challenger. I'm sticking with the record breaking Victorian Weir stable vs the Sydney equivalent Waller camp in what should be a great clash.
Gold Coast r2 Irish Constabulary; This horse simply handles all conditions and never runs a bad race.
Flemington r5 Divine Quality; It's debut win was outstanding and although this is a big step up in class, there's nothing spectacular in the opposition.
Flemington r7 Widgee Turf; No luck first up and has placed in far superior form races than this.
Best Bet; Caulfield r4 Moonlites Choice; Unbeaten on wet tracks, won 2nd up last prep, 2 from 3 at distance.
Caulfield r8 Charmed Harmony; Favourite track and distance, dropping massively in class where it was just beaten last start.
Best Bet Canterbury r6 Dagny; Wary of recent NSW form that has been almost exclusively on heavy tracks translating to today's improving soft 5 but this runner from the Waller yard has real upside, has won on good ground and has excellent track/distance stats.
Sandown r3 Alamonteel; Showed it was ready last start and now finds a heavy track that it handles as well as anything else in the race. 3kg claim helps in the conditions.
Sandown r6 Le Boss; Brave effort last start when caught very wide. Impressive winner before that and handles the wet. Bedford is the progressive horse in the race however no wet track guide, worth a saver.
Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Ambiente; Won It's first start in a breeze, drawn the right side of the track and only has to handle the straight to repeat.
Flemington r5 Single Note; $5 for a mare going for 5 in a row in suitable conditions with a nice claim to counter weight will do me eway all day.
Flemington r7 Milwaukee ; Has lost favouritism to Waller runner Egg Tart overnight most likely due to the track deteriorating. Both are promising horses and I'm hoping Milwaukee who loves to lead will have too much in hand on the line. Watch how the track is playing in earlier races.
Best Bet Ascot r6 Variation; Had the race handed to it on a platter last start when the odds on fav overaced badly but put them away easily. Third up and although taking on older horses this time, there are no stars and he is very promosing.
Morphetville r7 Kenedna;A third to I Am A Star in the Kewney at Flemington followed by a victory at this track two weeks ago is very strong form. Drawn awkwardly but still the one to beat. $3.60 looks delicious. Savvy Dreams has Bonneval NZ form which is even stronger but she was a well beaten third and a month between runs today, hopefully waiting for oaks day to peak.
Caulfield r1 Spur on Gold; The 4000m is a bit of a novelty in Australia with this marathon series final the only race on the flat I'm aware of. Spur on Gold ran past today's fav Bayanova over 3600m in Adelaide last Monday and I can't see why it won't again today.
Best Bet Pinjarra r8 Detango; Ran on hard first up to just miss in what I rate as a stronger form race. Concede Lorentino will be the one to catch back in class and distance, looks a good quinella.
Pinjarra r6 Caralabek; Going on impressive stats of distance 2 from 3, track 1 from 1 and first up 2 from 3 vs the obvious class in the race Barzinho who is 0 from 4 at distance.
Best Bet York r7 Slick Mover; Shouldn't take long for this one to break it's maiden tag and finds a very easy race to do so first up.
Oakbank r6 Lord Of The Song; Great Eastern Steeple and the unique track and distance makes it a tough affair over the jumps. Lord OTS has far superior track and distance stats to any other runner.
Best Bet Ascot r5 Regal Class: In a very average race this 3yo filly at least has some class, going for three in a row and this no harder. $2.50 seems fair enough with Pike on.
Caulfield r7 Miss Gunpowder: First up for new stable, the powerful and flying Hayes yard, this mare has a class advantage on her rivals if ready to add to her good fresh stats.
Forgive we Lord for providing a winner on Good Friday but at least I'm sharing it with good ducks.
Best Bet; Ascot r7 Debellatio; Sires produce fav who ran a slashing third in the 1200m Karrakatta Plate, flying home from well back and just missing. The winner Lucy Mae was flat out on the corner but lifted to scramble in so the extra 200m should help Debellatio turn the tables.
Best Bet Ascot r7 Quilista ; This 3yo is going places, building a picket fence and really can't see it not adding another picket. Pike on, races on speed and the one danger Variation has to give Quilista 4kgs and make up two lengths from their last clash. I'm really surprised black figures are available.
Randwick r6 Bonneval ; Hopefully tipping before the first in Sydney today will not be doomed by another track bias like last week. It definitely proves the difficulty in betting early. Presuming a fairer track albeit still wet, tipping the two NZ fillies to fight out the Oaks. Devise ran a close 2nd to Bonneval in the NZ Oaks and you can back both to make a profit. They streeted the rest and like the males there are no standout Aussie stayers among the 3yo fillies.
Best Bet Ascot r3 Remember Berlin; Liking the 2nd to Quilista first up as a form reference. Races up front and there is no Quilista's in this field.
Warwick Farm r6 Hunter Jack; Inform horse who handles the heavy ten better than most.
Best Bet Geraldton r8 Falcon Crest: Geraldton cup and Falcon Crest is coming from a 4th in the Bunbury Cup. Came from a fair way back that day, looked a chance before only holding ground late. Slight drop back in distance and class should assist. Has won in town and has the services of country cups king P. hall.
Ballarat r8 Lips Aerios; Weir runner who races best fresh proven by comfortable Edenhope Cup win 2nd up. 3 from 4 at distance and although this Bm78 is slightly harder opposition, has the scope to win again.
Best Bet Randwick r7 Gingernuts; Day 1 of The Championships and The Kiwi's have a massive say in this years Australian Derby. NZ Derby Winner Gingernuts looped them from well back first up in Australia and beat them arrogantly. Back up in trip and wet conditions only make me more confident. How could you not go for a horse named Gingernuts.
Randwick r6 Frolic; Hard to see the Golden Slipper form not be the right form for the sires. Frolic beat the slipper winner two starts ago albeit finding the right part of the track, then franked it by coming home like a steam train to run 2 in the slipper. Tulip was the other mammoth slipper run caught wide and still attacking the line for 3rd like 1400m will suit. Tulip draws 2 which probably doesn't help today while Frolic draws out.
Locally I must say the fields are pretty disappointing including the Karrakatta and Oaks. SEANNIE is probably our only genuine above average 2yo however barrier 2 and A Mitchell counts me out as a betting proposition. My favouritehorse at the moment Man Booker should win again but is too short with the 59kgs.
Ascot r6 Sweet Ora; Always cautious with short priced fav's first up but has a clear class edge on her rivals. $2.30 currently is as short as I would accept.
Best Bet Ascot r6 Rosewood Hill; These midweek staying races are usually lotteries so when you find one with 1-1 distance stats and 3-2,1 track stats it must be a great chance. 58.5kgs fair lump of weight for a mare to carry if looking for negatives, I'm banking on superior class.
Best Bet Mornington r7 The Gold Trail; The winner of this race gets a run in the Caulfield Cup. Godolphin have brought this fellow over for that very reason and his form overseas rates him an absolute moral in this field. If he has settled from his travels he simply wins. The price has shortened to 2.25 as I type, wouldn't be suprised if it jumped odds on.
Rosehill r4 Spectroscope ; Another Godolphin raider, this time moved permanently to Oshea. First up in Australia was most impressive with plenty left in the tank. 53kgs, Heavy Ten should be ok for a European the Godolphin Double looks a great bet.
Ascot r6 At The Ready; Traditional derby lead up and I'm going the horse jumping in grade but showing enormous staying potential over the fav from the all powerful Peters camp who won at listed level last start.
Ascot r8 Presentatie; Wouldn't usually tip this horse, especially on a Saturday but it at least has metro form where most of the field are horribly out of form or coming from remote bush tracks. Pike to ride for Williams.
Best Bet Mooney Valley r5 Ellicazoom; Wa filly who has gone down narrowly in two runs in Melbourne and finds a much easier race to break through. Should lead for a long way, the last bit stepping up to 1600m the test.
Mooney Valley r7 Star Turn; 3yo who has gone down fighting in the two Flemington big group 1 sprints. Not as well suited at weights but drawn perfectly. Hopefully sits on WA speedster Sheidel and goes bang. The other WA runner Rock Magic absolutely flies fresh and will be swooping hard. At $9 worth at least a saver.
Quaddie (r5-8) 1 4, 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 10, 6 13, 5 cost $32 @ 100%
