Best BetPinjarra r8 Incredible Hulk; Last start 2nd in an Ascot class 5 dropping to a Pinjarra class 3, drawn right side of straight and Pike rides.
Ballarat r7 Keighran; Won it's maiden first up by 8 lengths. Winning by 8 is a big win no matter how bad the opposition are. Should continue to improve as the distances increase and looks set to rise through the grades.
Best Bet; Rosehill r8 Snoopy; I simply find the 2nd to Clearly Innocent too good a form line to look past as my best of the day. Add in the track and distance stats for good measure.
Rosehill r7 So Willie; Has won 3 from 4 this prep and now drops in weight for a better class of race but none of them are in his vein of form.
Doomben r4 Preferment; The only genuine WFA horse in the field, found a suitable dry track, if not now probably never again.
Doomben r7 Egg Tart; Dominant filly showing no signs of stopping. Waller does have 7 runners and if I picked one to have a saver on it would be Dawn Wall in case it got it easy up front.
Doomben r8 Bonny O'reilly; Has won 6 out of 8 and in NSW which always stands up in Qld and although up in class she is drawn perfectly.
Belmont r6 My Magic Miss; This mare is flying and when a mare finds form stick with her. Her barrier manners are proving costly however. A clean jump and she is the best stayer in the race.
Best Bet Belmont r4 Bells Tower; Is the clear class over the 1000m distance of the race and after the 3kg claim is weighted to win. A negative is it's track record of 13 starts for no wins and 6 minor placings. I'm first to admit I'm hopeless at taking the right price but I'm reluctant to take the $3.10 currently on offer, thinking it will drift out. Yeah Dardy is the clear danger, has run some promising races in it's brief career and won a trial by 6 lengths recently. Definitely worth a saver or smaller bet.
Instead of tipping more races today I am going to try and maximize profits on the one race with the following;
Main win bet Bells Tower, Small win bet Yeah Dardy, .
First Four; 2 9, 2 3 5 6 7 9, s2 , s2, $40 for 33.33%
The way I bet is always make sure if your best bet wins you end up with a profit, even if the rest lose. I'll leave the maths with you if you decide to follow.
Best Bet Echuca r4 Wayne County; The debut run was very good over today's distance and several winners have already come out of the race. Has enough speed to counter bad barrier, the only query is the deteriorating soft seven track.
Kalgoorlie r3 Decoy Noxious; Two fast finishing efforts at Bunbury and Pinjarra should be good enough for this field, it will most likely give them a start again so trusting jockey to time it right.
Kalgoorlie r5 Seattle Stryker; Just a spec that this one is over the odds. It's 8th two starts ago was much better than it looks on paper, beaten only 1.3L at Ascot. Was much more interested at the $34 overnight than the $19 currently (tabtouch), each way.
Best Bet Sandown r9 Data Point; Followed and rated this fellow very highly pre op but was frustrated with his lack of a knockout punch. He returned Gelded with a crushing victory and although it was on a Heavy 9 in a bm70, I think he can climb even higher than this quite rapidly.
Sandown r2 Nikitas; Showed ability as a youngster and at first start for Weir, returned to the top with a big come from behind victory beating key rivals and the form has already been franked. Each Way.
Belmont r5 Rising Sea; Winter racing returns to Belmont in the West where it often takes a few sighters to adjust the form from Ascot. Rising Sea is very well bred and has the ratings to remain undefeated this prep. Has already been solidly backed which is a good sign.
Belmont r6 Entrechat; In an even off season staying affair we are getting $8 each way on a horse that won a class 5 with ease last start and is using a 3kg claim.
Eagle Farm r6 Raiment; Brisbane is clearly the best program today however the recently redeveloped track has come under fire as sub standard. A wet track with drying weather only thickens the plot. Tipping before race 1 we just have to assume it is fair and watch the day progress before investing. This Godolphin filly has won 5 out of 11 with 3 2nds and a third, last start bolting in a group 3 in Sydney where the form always holds up in Qld.
Eagle Farm r7 Derryn; Group one racing and this Hayes runner handles all conditions, is in career best form and is each way odds. A repeat of it's last run see's it go very close.
Best Bet Cranbourne r8 Swampland; 3yo filly with ability. Last start was a cracker against the pattern of the day and looks ready to win. Craig Williams to swamp them late (pun intended), the dry track looks suitable despite it's name!
Best Bet Gosford r7 Validate; Loves to lead and expecting it to cross and try again. First up was only grabbed late here in a similar race, beaten 0.6 3rd over 1200m. Races best 2nd up and 100m less to hang on.
Pakenham r5 October Tutu; Synthetic track specialist who gets back and charges to the line. Has finished 4th, 3rd, 2nd this prep so it's up to jockey to keep the pattern going and time it right. The obvious danger Let's Go to Rio races on pace and is having it's first go on synthetic. Looks a good quinella.
Best Bet Pinjarra r3 The Rake; Finished off hard into 3rd on debut in an Ascot maiden over today's distance. Only has to match that effort to be winning here.
Not very brave today, typical winter midweek racing with not much quality to work with. Always better to have the day off than desperately pluck bets out of thin air.
Best Bet Casterton r5 Vanilla Gold; Last start 2nd to Craven Image over today's distance. Winner won again as odds on fav Cranbourne Fri night. A repeat run should be good enough here.
Kalgoorlie r7 Too Clever; 4 starts for 2 wins, 2 2nds including a last start 2nd to Corvara who is fav in r6. Only has to carry the big weight to live up to it's name
Bendigo r8 Zagaya; Actually had this one tipped yesterday with 51.5kgs at Flemington. I think this race is stronger and it carries 58.5kgs so I'm backing the trainers judgement. Each way.
Best Bet Ascot r7 Rock Magic; With two of WA's best sprinters chasing group one glory in SA today, Rock Magic is left as the clear class runner. Initially concerned with the toll of It's own Interstate campaign thwarted by a heavy track in NSW, trainer Gangemi has declared publicly that the horse is spot on for today's Roma Cup. Not concerned by the gate as it will get back and steam home anyway.
Flemington r2 Divine Quality; If you missed yesterday's post I suggested backing this one yesterday. It looks a clear standout, hopefully you can still get black figures otherwise bank on it in multi's.
Flemington r5 Charmed Harmony; I actually like the wide draw today, forces the jockeys hand on a horse that clearly races best with the foot to the floor from jump to finish. 3kg claim sees it thrown in at weights and will fight it out to the line. Each way all day. (has been crunched in overnight hopefully gets out a bit)
Rosehill r6 My Psychiatrist; Have been watching this one getting fitter and closer to winning in harder races. 4th up in a winnable race $8.50 looks overs, each way again.
Morphettville r5 Exocet; Carried 59.5kgs in the guineas at Wagga and still finished over the top of them. Races like the trip will suit, big drop in weight and Williams to ride. You guessed it, Each Way!
Suggested Multi; Divine Quality (win)
My Psychiatrist (place)
Rock Magic (place) @ approx $10.66 (tabtouch)
Best Bet Northam r4 Shouhou; Won it's debut impressive enough suggesting the 1300m will not be an issue while the others in the market might be stretched or caught short.
Northam r7 Paris Texas; Looks the best horse in the race in the best form. If it wasn't for the horror draw I would declare it but to counter that we probably get slightly better odds.
Hawkesbury r8 Pygmy; Just missed then bolted in at last two starts over today's distance. Beadman has started his new role on fire and can continue here.
Best Bet Ascot r 3 Perfect Dream; Perfect race ie very limited talent among the opposition. Ran on well enough on debut to suggest the 1400m will be suitable. Is well bred and from WA's power stable. Doubt the $3.70 currently on offer will last to jump.
Best Bet R3 Mica Lil ; Has taken a while to find form this prep but has run well in much stronger and ready to win.
r2 Prince Weston; Has gone close in 5 starts without winning where as most of these haven't. Today or never.
r6 Pegatego; Track and distance specialist who has run two 2nds this prep and I'm tipping 3rd time lucky.
Best Bet Ascot r4 Cappo D'oro; Has run 2nd at it's last two starts behind Couleur Bizarre who has since won a third race against better horses. Runs up to those performances and it beats these.
Ascot r5 Touch of Silver; Has a touch of gold about him winning 5 of 6. He has been scratched a few times lately hence been a month between runs but we can only presume he is right to go, doubt they would risk such a talented horse otherwise.
Caulfield r5 Kenjorwood; Has run two bottlers over 1400m at group 3/ listed level, now drops to a handicap and gets to very suitable 1600m.
Scone r5 Mr Sneaky; The Freedman stable have been placing their horses to perfection lately. Mr Sneaky comes from Melbourne in red hot form.
Morphetville r7 Waging War; Going for value in a very open SA Derby. Big respect to the stable / jockey combination who won a Victorian and SA Derby with his sire Rebel Raider who was one of my favourites. Although it had all the breaks last start it was strong on the line and should run a big race at around $15 each way.
Doomben r6 Redzel; Stablemate to the fav, Redzel races on speed, handles all conditions and never gives up without a hell of a fight. Great each way value at $6.50 each way in the group one 10 000.
Best Bet Cranbourne r2 She's A Pluck; Back 100m and fitter, won't get an easier maiden to breakthrough.
Scone r7 Moher; Darley sponser the cup and I'm tipping they can get their money back quickly. Pretty much a re run of the Hawkesbury Cup and I think the Weight swing against Fabrizio is enough to turn the tables.
Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Harry Thomas; The extra fitness, inside barrier and weight advantage should help Harry go one better than it's last start 2nd.
Best Bet Ascot r2 Karlakee Miss; In form filly who has dropped slightly in class and distance to find a very suitable race.
Sandown r5 Chateau Cheval ; Already had seven runs this prep for 1w 5 2nds 1 3rd, so consistency is not a problem but winning maybe. The drying ground and barrier draw/ speed map point to it getting every chance for another well deserved breakthrough.
Best Bet Northam r6 Prince Turbo; Won't find an easier race to break it's maiden tag. Been running on over 1400m in slightly tougher maidens. Good Luck LDR Trainer Sarah Miller!!!!
Northam r8 Madassa; It's last run was in the 2015 Winterbottom stakes where it ran 4th to Buffering. This is a cracking edition of the Northam Stakes, not that far off Winterbottom quality. It has 3 recent trials to prepare, winning all 3. I am very confident it will be in front at the 100m but very concerned about the last 100m due to the long lay off and quality swoopers in race. Stable is going well. I suggest waiting to see if we can get a bit better place price to stack bet 40/60 for security.
Pakenham r8 Data Point; Overnight scratchings have left it pretty short but it is classes above this field and the 1400m first up looks perfect to swoop from midfield providing the track allows this. Being the last we will know any patterns.
Best Bet Gold Coast r5 Religify; Rarely tip a horse first up but doubt Waller sends one here not ready and will prove extremely hard to run down.
Ascot r4 Pushin Shapes; Have liked this horse since it's very impressive debut win at 2. Things went amiss after a setback in it's first prep but it is finally putting it together now and seems to be relishing the increase in distances. Steps up another 300m and carries 58kgs but not a strong field.
Morphettville r6 Kenedna; SA oaks and Kenedna put them away in the lead up. Egg Tart is the new challenger. I'm sticking with the record breaking Victorian Weir stable vs the Sydney equivalent Waller camp in what should be a great clash.
Gold Coast r2 Irish Constabulary; This horse simply handles all conditions and never runs a bad race.
Flemington r5 Divine Quality; It's debut win was outstanding and although this is a big step up in class, there's nothing spectacular in the opposition.
Flemington r7 Widgee Turf; No luck first up and has placed in far superior form races than this.
Best Bet; Caulfield r4 Moonlites Choice; Unbeaten on wet tracks, won 2nd up last prep, 2 from 3 at distance.
Caulfield r8 Charmed Harmony; Favourite track and distance, dropping massively in class where it was just beaten last start.
