Best Bet Cranbourne r7 Swampland; Looks to be classes above this lot. Can she carry the 60kgs and my tip to what looks like a certain victory.
Cranbourne r9 Strykinglee; Sparingly raced fella that never runs a bad race. Will be right in the finish again.
Dbl Swampland win , Strykinglee place $4.53 (tabtouch)
Best Bet Canterbury r2 Miss Que; Superbly bred filly that was simply outstanding on debut, rounding them up from last after tardy beginning and pulling clear. I'm also getting on the Bowman bandwagon as he chases NSW title.
Belmont r4 O'reilly's Crumpet; Should be ready third up and a fast finishing 3rd to Come on Board is good enough for this. Doesn't win often but nor does opposition and my favourite training/jockey combo are on fire.
Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 Reverend John; Taken time to hit form but bolted in last start in very similar circumstances. Omens punters note he is a reverend and Faithful rides.
Sale r8 Vegas Beauty; Dropping in class and has won first up previously. Currently good each way price.
Best Bet Caufield r9 Magic Consul; In the best form at it's best distance and best jockey on.
Caufield r8 Leodoro; Giving jockey chance at redemption after slaughtering it last start. Will give them a start and charge late if given the opportunity.
Sunshine Coast r6 Neverland; Forget the on speed dominated Brisbane cup, The two 2nds in Perth cups over this distance to Delicacy and Star Exhibit read very well for this providing she is still going well and the track is no wetter than soft 5.
Rosehill r7 Shiraz; Concede Sir Bacchus hard to beat but back in distance and 4 weeks between runs makes me lean to Shiraz who is third up off two promising run on efforts in quality races. Each Way.
Belmont r4 New Time; Fitter for first up run where it gave them something to catch. With only 54kgs will take some catching again at great each way prices. A significantly wet track dampens my winning confidence but not place.
Best Bet Pinjarra r5 Outer Detention; Both runs this campaign have been flashing lights for this distance. In form stable / jockey combo.
Pinjarra r8 Messiah; Pike is a messiah to many punters and this ride races well here. This is no harder if not easier than latest efforts. Rare to get Each way on a Pike runner, consider taking it early.
Ballarat r8 Notio; Hawkes/Dunn combo traveling to the provincials with a horse that ran a flashing 2nd in the city last start.
Multi: Outer Detention (win) Messiah (place) Notio (win) 15.66 (tabtouch)
Best Bet Belmont r9 Detango; One of my fav horses to tip (It actually wins!), got the job done first up and looks even more suited here. Has shortened overnight so use any boost options.
Belmont r8 Jackpot Prince; Guaranteed to run out the trip in a field of many chances that are stepping up in distance. Each Way.
Doomben r4 Sharpe Hussler; Drops significantly in class to help break a long drought, if not today never again!
Sandown r8 Kellstorm; The step up in trip looks ideal, the $6.50 each way looks overs for a Weir stayer ready to win.
Best Bet Doomben r5 Pemberley; Looks a weight certainty, ie finished just in front of fav Rudy in Brisbane Cup and same weight differential today but 54kg minimum vs 59.5kgs.
Doomben r8 Deploy; Classy and in form should go close again.
Belmont r1 Street Fury; Pike generally wins the first and on it's last start win any price will do this field. Multi banker.
Belmont r3 The Celt; At his very best he will beat this field hence the top weight which is offset by 3kg claim. Racing well and currently at great each way odds.
Belmont r4 Luke's Gold; Might just be a Belmont track specialist as once he got here he has grown wings. Gets in light after claim. Always tricky when stable has two in the betting especially almost equal favs but I'm going for gold.
Flemington r6 Rough Justice; Is always ultra competitive in straight races and we're getting double figures to play each way with.
Flemington r8 Tshahitsi; Getting up in the weights but simply crushed them last start and confident of a repeat.
Randwick r6 Sultan of Swing; Kiwi with just 51kg after claim and has a solid record, there were excuses for his one failure in oz.
Suggested Multi Pemberley win , Street Fury win , The Celt place @ 11.80 (tabtouch)
Best Bet Northam r6 Sharkmouth; Well weighted after the claim and drawn to get the best of runs to sit on their hammer and gobble them up. Untried on wet but surely it's a swimmer!
Wangaratta r6 But it's true; Looks ready third up coming from a Sandown bm70 where it ran a very brave 2nd after doing plenty of work.
Best Bet Gold Coast r2 Go Daisy; On a real tough day to find a best Daisy looks ready to win down in class from a very good 3rd. $11 looks way overs and 40/60 ratio looks a great bet.
Gold Coast r3 Dazzling Red; Been finding one better but drawn to dominate with top jock on and has a fitness edge on main dangers.
Bendigo r4 Our Mallee Hoff; Down in class from a very close second in a very winnable race.
Belmont r5 Come on Board; In reasonable form and drawn to get a suitable run on speed. Strike rate a concern but pretty weak race so each way.
Best Bet Belmont r5 Scapel; Progressive 3yo who won first up at very short odds. Granted today's field has much more depth but can still control race from near the front and win again.
Belmont Quaddie (r5-8) 5, 3 4 5 8 10 11 , 1, field (100% costs $96)
Ipswich r8 Shiraz; Wet track no problem whatsoever, great run first up in Sydney, beaten under 2l. One of Qld's finest Orman rides and the each way odds on offer looks delicious.
Mooney Valley r9 Leodoro; Down in grade from a luckless run at same track and distance. Looks enough speed on to sweep over the top.
Morphettville r4 Ace Attack; Good win followed by runs in features and last start ok on unsuitable soft going. Hard to beat for strong stable down on the minimum.
Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Fille De Merit; Bolted in here two starts ago then stepped up in trip and to Ascot for a brave 3rd only beaten 1.75. Back to a very winnable race with Pike on.
Ballarat r7 Miss Adequate; 3yo filly who has to step up from smashing her age group in a maiden to an all aged cl1 but right time of year to try and has the adequate upside to complete the task.
Best Bet; Canterbury r4 Walk The Streets; Brings Pelorus Jack and Just Dreaming form to a midweek fillies and mares race. Not many Street Cry's don't handle the wet.
Belmont r4 Bregenz; Led in a high pressure race last start and was only collared very late, winning at Ascot start prior. This no harder if not easier and can prove very tough to run down.
Belmont r6 Detango; Has shown the most ability of these but also can frustrate punters with finding ways to go down in photo's. Drawn to get to good a run not to tip. Ace's wish is the value runner I could also back in the race heavy place.
Belmont r8 Rising Sea; Terribly disappointing last start but didn't lose by much and kept coming. The 2kg claim for very much in form Randy Tan helps and has an undeniable each way chance in a very good open midweek 3yo event.
Suggesting a system 2,3,4 today for those who bet with corporate bookmakers. Two have to win to collect if all four win get the wheelbarrow. If you bet with local tab, then it is basically all the possible doubles, trebles and 1 whatever 4 legs is called. Too hard then back them all in singles and if two win you will make a profit.
Kalgoorlie r3 Someday One Day; Thrashed this class with a soft win at local debut, only concern is sticky gate with 60kg, will take a good ride.
Kalgoorlie r5 The Cruel Sea; Has won all 3 starts this prep so why not add a 4th from good draw and Staeck rides.
Kalgoorlie r7 Corvara; Pretty much read comment from race above and add yet to be tested at this track. (Best of 4 if betting on singles)
Hamilton r7 Pacodali; Irish import in Weir yard who had the flashing red lights on over unsuitable 1400m first up then won easy 1600m 2nd up. Being from Ireland an Aussie heavy track shouldn't worry, has a very light weight, just needs to find a spot from tricky barrier.
Best Bet Belmont r5 Flytego; This old boy has been getting way back and savaging the line. Has not won for a long time but after the claim only carries 52.5kgs. At $17 I suggest 20/80% win/place stake as a place more likely. Thought Profit St was the one to beat but the 60kg's scared me off at the price.
Doomben r2 Miss Gunpowder; Quality mare back to somewhere near her best. Williams is obviously chasing coin over premierships but he still must like his book of rides to come.
Doomben r5 Niccanova; Every time the bar is raised it sails over with ease. Gets back which isn't meant to suit Doomben but has won at track and distance before.
Doomben r9 Neverland; Trainer aimed her at this race and he will be cursing it is not over 2400m on a good surface at Eagle Farm. Still think it's the one to beat. Don't back until just before race as late storms predicted and it's wet track form is no good. Each Way.
Best Bet Pinjarra r2 Del Sur; Two places in Ascot maidens from two lifetime starts should be good enough for this field over this distance.
Pinjarra r6 Border Scot; Looks a good clash with Forbidden Planet. Drawn closer to outside and is a track and distance specialist where as Planet is having first go at the straight race. Exacta and Quinella also an option.
Pinjarra r7 Prince Turbo; Should find this easier than last start when jumping straight to Saturday grade after impressive maiden victory. Was slightly held upon that occasion and Pike sticks. Good luck LDR trainer Sarah Miller.
Pakenham r5 Iheartpoppy; Won her maiden here impressively before fancied to repeat and having no luck at Sandown. This is very suitable.
Pakenham r7 Global Rocket; Stable has great success at this track and first run on Synthetic was an easy win. This harder but obviously prefers the surface.
Best Bet Sandown r7 Barbie's Boy ; Dropping from Saturday grade where it made good ground. Was aimed at Group one racing last prep and although didn't eventuate has found the right race here. $5 into $2.90 is a shame but indicates the confidence, Top Fluc if you bet with Corporates.
Sandown r4 Granddukeoftuscany; Willams Import who hasn't set the world on fire in Australia but put the writing on the wall first up running on against the pattern. Form has been franked since and rise in distance, soft track and better speed map all point to a victory. $9 into $2.90 shows bookies got it wrong. Missed price again.
Canterbury r3 The Gavel; This is a great betting race with 3 equal fav's all in the $4 range. The Gavel has placed on the Heavy but more enticing to me is the fitness edge having won at the distance last start. The other main chances are up in distance.
Best Bet Northam r7 Kaapander; Doesn't win out of turn but always runs on hard. This is not a class 5 field and at current odds 40/60 each way looks great value.
Northam r9 Flower of Scotland; Looks a match race between it and Santiago Gal. Going the better priced one on a hunch the 1100m suits it more, Santiago Gal is dropping in distance.
Multi; R5 Perfect Dream win (was my best bet until it shortened into a ridiculous price)
R7 Kaapander place
R9 Flower of Scotland win paying $15.26 (tabtouch) or place paying $6.01 ( I will be having both options)
R9 First Four; 2 3, 2 3, field field $42 for 50%
Best BetPinjarra r8 Incredible Hulk; Last start 2nd in an Ascot class 5 dropping to a Pinjarra class 3, drawn right side of straight and Pike rides.
Ballarat r7 Keighran; Won it's maiden first up by 8 lengths. Winning by 8 is a big win no matter how bad the opposition are. Should continue to improve as the distances increase and looks set to rise through the grades.
Best Bet; Rosehill r8 Snoopy; I simply find the 2nd to Clearly Innocent too good a form line to look past as my best of the day. Add in the track and distance stats for good measure.
Rosehill r7 So Willie; Has won 3 from 4 this prep and now drops in weight for a better class of race but none of them are in his vein of form.
Doomben r4 Preferment; The only genuine WFA horse in the field, found a suitable dry track, if not now probably never again.
Doomben r7 Egg Tart; Dominant filly showing no signs of stopping. Waller does have 7 runners and if I picked one to have a saver on it would be Dawn Wall in case it got it easy up front.
Doomben r8 Bonny O'reilly; Has won 6 out of 8 and in NSW which always stands up in Qld and although up in class she is drawn perfectly.
Belmont r6 My Magic Miss; This mare is flying and when a mare finds form stick with her. Her barrier manners are proving costly however. A clean jump and she is the best stayer in the race.
Best Bet Belmont r4 Bells Tower; Is the clear class over the 1000m distance of the race and after the 3kg claim is weighted to win. A negative is it's track record of 13 starts for no wins and 6 minor placings. I'm first to admit I'm hopeless at taking the right price but I'm reluctant to take the $3.10 currently on offer, thinking it will drift out. Yeah Dardy is the clear danger, has run some promising races in it's brief career and won a trial by 6 lengths recently. Definitely worth a saver or smaller bet.
Instead of tipping more races today I am going to try and maximize profits on the one race with the following;
Main win bet Bells Tower, Small win bet Yeah Dardy, .
First Four; 2 9, 2 3 5 6 7 9, s2 , s2, $40 for 33.33%
The way I bet is always make sure if your best bet wins you end up with a profit, even if the rest lose. I'll leave the maths with you if you decide to follow.
