Best Bet Northam r3 Celebrity Witness; The step up to 1300m and slightly easier opposition looks ideal. Should settle a touch closer from good barrier. Unfortunately the price has gone while typing this preview. The best winning chance on the program but $1.95 is rock bottom odds.
Northam r6 Noble Reflection; No luck first up after trialing like a coming winner then ran 3rd in a good form race for this. Gets in well after claim and is clearly the one to beat.
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Best Bet Belmont r2 Off Wego ; Two ways you can look at this race in my opinion. Is 1400m too far for Captain Burglar and Type Won? Both have finished a nose either side of Indigo Blue over 1200m , who I would rate highly here. Both were being overrun late. Is 1400m too short for Off Wego ?. He has won his last two starts over 1400m and 1600m with a sharp turn of foot from the back. He got up in the last stride over 1600m so dropping back to the 1400 is the concern however hoping he can settle close enough from the barrier and banking on the other two stopping. Chiclett is the other obvious chance however can’t justify the $3 favouritism tag given the rise in class on recent assignments where she has been beaten then fell in despite being given every opportunity and starting at long odds on .
Caulfield r8 The Chosen One (Place); For those following our Spring Contenders series , here is our first Caulfield Cup pick from two weeks ago. Tough ask to beat Russian Camelot at WFA but on his first up run is sure to run well. $2.75 a place is a great bet, couple of dollars on the win in case fav doesn’t handle the wet and very keen to play the novelties.
1st ; 10 2nd ; 7 3rd 2 5 6 8 9 4th 2 5 6 8 9 .
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Best Bet Belmont r2 Off Wego ; Two ways you can look at this race in my opinion. Is 1400m too far for Captain Burglar and Type Won? Both have finished a nose either side of Indigo Blue over 1200m , who I would rate highly here. Both were being overrun late. Is 1400m too short for Off Wego ?. He has won his last two starts over 1400m and 1600m with a sharp turn of foot from the back. He got up in the last stride over 1600m so dropping back to the 1400 is the concern however hoping he can settle close enough from the barrier and banking on the other two stopping. Chiclett is the other obvious chance however can’t justify the $3 favouritism tag given the rise in class on recent assignments where she has been beaten then fell in despite being given every opportunity and starting at long odds on .
Belmont r8 Massimo; Sticking with the theme of value over confidence this weekend . Most of the top gun sprinters in this are heading to bigger grand finals in the coming weeks. While most are fresh with this in mind , our tip hasn’t stopped racing since what seems like forever. Has finished in the top two in 15 of it’s 18 starts . For a while there had forgotten how to win but is now going for 4 on the bounce and 5 out of last 6, regaining his confidence. Banking on his fitness edge to prove too strong late. Although dropping in distance from recent starts he has the tactical speed to land in the perfect spot just behind the leaders from the good barrier. $7.50/$2.45 each way is a great price for a horse with his record.
Caulfield r8 The Chosen One (Place); For those following our Spring Contenders series , here is our first Caulfield Cup pick from two weeks ago. Tough ask to beat Russian Camelot at WFA but on his first up run is sure to run well. $2.75 a place is a great bet and very keen to play the novelties.
1st ; 10 2nd ; 6 7 3rd 2 5 6 7 8 9 4th 2 5 6 7 8 9 .
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Best Bet Moonee Valley r2 Chicago Cub ; The Showmanship form is red hot and superior to what it meets here. Handles all conditions and considering it’s currently a good 3 but all week we have been told of the oncoming deluge expected that’s important. Moonee Valley is a track that rarely plays fair, a rail bias would be a big problem from the barrier. Being race 2 we will just have to cross our fingers .
Best Value Moonee Valley r7 Ashlor; Unbelievably even field and with conditions still unknown impossible to pinpoint one. I am a big fan of WA’s flying liverpool grey in FABERGINO but can’t see the value in her $4 favouritism. From a punting perspective , Bella Vella is very popular in tips I have seen and for good reason . Track and distance specialist in sparkling form. On paper $6.50 looks fair enough but then go down to Ashlor at $41/$8.50. Lost to Bella Vella this track and trip by a bob of the head last start. Should be camped right behind a hectic speed including the two favourites. Handles all track conditions and proven here. A small each way (heavy place) dart looks worthwhile at those odds.
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Fiery Water ; Very impressive winning from the back first up over 1200m. Settled closer next start and didn’t finish off as well. The form out of that race trumps these however and from the barrier will be coming from further back again. Opened above $3 and already into $2.35 , that’s rock bottom as far as value goes. Igarashi drawn to get a sweet run and won well first up , clear danger. Good Quinella.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Ihtsahymn ; Best horse in this by the length of the straight. Proven weight carrier . If this was on dirt I would put the house caravan and boat on. Back to turf is a leveler however he will still be right there in the finish . He is a cult figure of WA racing and happy to be part of the roar as he thunders home . Each way to be safe.
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Approach ; It’s last win might of only been a c3 but it was from last and went past them like they were glued to the fence. The 2nd horse Annhilator bolted in Wednesday with 61.5kgs. Last of the Line is most likely the best horse in the race and comes from a trial that we have already made money from . 1st up over 1400m , is he forward enough to hold Approach’s finishing burst should he replicate it ? At $4.80 I’m willing to back in the race fitness.
Belmont r6 Inspirational Girl / Western Pride ; Inspirational Girl should be undefeated and raced past Massimo last start , proving she is still on an upward spiral. Western Pride’s only defeat was when she clearly had an issue , tailing off by 17 lengths. Her recent trial indicates she is over her issue. I can’t split them , especially with the 4.5kgs pull in the weights. I’m going to back Western Pride at the better odds and also have the quinella .
Belmont r8 Reaction (Place) ; One of those horses that when he gets a soft run , he catches the eye flashing home , sometimes into a place at big odds no matter the class. Does the same in weak races as his 44:2,9,5 career record indicates . Always have $1 on the win in case but drawn 1 he can sneak into the placings with luck in running.
R8 Box Trifecta/First 4 ; 2 4 7 9.
Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1 7 , 2 6 7 8 , 2 4 7 9 , 6 11 13 . $96 for 100%
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Best Bet Northam r5 Oristano ; Ran 2nd all 3 starts last prep , all as an odds on favourite . First up from the wide barrier over 1000m doesn’t inspire confidence but I can’t ignore the trial where it split two Saturday class sprinters in Celebrity Queen and State Attorney in a 3 way finish. Celebrity Queen has opened $2.45 fav in a stakes race Belmont Saturday. Fair to say the race conditions don’t suit at all , just hoping class prevails late.
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Best Bet Belmont r6 Uncanny Timing ; Took 8 starts to break his maiden tag with a strong all the way win over 1100m. 2nd in that race won it’s maiden Sunday. Had been competitive in nearly all runs prior and hoping the confidence boost helps him go back to back. Casino War will most likely lead for a long way , always seems to let one pass late but is always in the finish. Choice Command has raced against harder opposition. A race in 3 for mine .
Belmont r8 Bollinger Boy; . Midweek stayers are impossible to trust and track record of 6 starts for donuts hardly inspires confidence however , 3rd up for WA’s best trainer of stayers , overall record good compared to most of the others and 2nd up run was full of merit.
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Best Bet York r1 Lies ‘N’ Deception ; Front runners are genuinely suited at York, jockey known for her ability to rate them in front and his current form is strong enough.
York r6 Frosty Heart; If it can repeat it’s last start demolition of a c3 field then it is clearly the one to beat.
York Early Quaddie (r1-4); 6 , 3, 1 2 4 5 7 , 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 . $35 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Madam Torio ; In a race where 3/7 runners are virtually equal favourites, I’m siding with the race fit 1000m specialist. Brooklyn Pier trialing the house down but will cop more pressure race day. Friday Knight unbeaten at trials but will have to give the other two a head start on debut which wont be easy over 1000m.
Big Watch on the Cerise and White army at Flemington . I believe all 3 (Windstorm , Arcardia Queen and Perfect Jewel ) will run big races. but also believe they are currently under the odds . Expecting better closer to jump .
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Best Bet Belmont r7 Ration Aly ; Was first up off 400 days when sensationally backed and getting the job done from well back in a midweek c3 to make it 2/3 career starts. Her other win as a 2yo was over 1400m so only issue would be 2nd up off such a long break but she clearly has the most upside in the field.
R7 Novelties 1st ; 4 7 8 2nd 3 4 7 8 3rd 3 4 7 8 4th field $18 trifecta $108 first 4.
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Best Bet Northam r2 Snip’n’Tuck ; Looks a race in two on paper. Warcidium comes from much stronger form races. The query with him is the 1600m first time. Only battled late over 1400m last time hence I’m going with the 3yo filly. Jumped straight to 1600m at career start two and only peaked very late for 2nd. With the added fitness should go very close.
Northam r6 Secret Statue; Dropping back in class after creating an impression on debut with a sharp turn of foot. Has got back in all it’s races and finished off, indicating it’s looking for further. That is not always the case however the 3kg claim combined with the drop in class give him every opportunity to win.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Sluice Box; Was beaten by the barrier last start. Can really rattle home and in the small field wont be far away. Also drops in weight .
Kalgoorlie r7 Staralign ; Proven at the track and distance and gets the best run out of the main chances.
Kalgoorlie Quaddie (r4-7); 7, field , 2 3 5 6 7 10 , 5 6. $120 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r6 Aconite; Last two placings were behind the talented and flying Montelena. She would be odds on here and should get every chance from barrier 2.
Belmont r8 Money Matters; Just failed to catch a 1000m speed queen first up. Staying at 1000m is a slight query but he should settle close enough to simply outclass them.
Belmont Quaddie (r6-9); 1 6 9 , 2 3 4 5 10 , 8 , field. $210 for 100%
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Best Bet Pinjarra r3 How’s the Serenity; The two races she has competed in so far rate so much higher than anything else in this race it’s not funny.
Pinjarra Early Quaddie (r1-4); 1 3 6 7 9 , 1 5 8 , 8 , field. $180 for 100%
Pinjarra r5 Ozzy Boy; Recent trial winner in quick time . This is a weak maiden so should be hard to beat on that.
Pinjarra r7 STARTTHEFRIAR (Our Own Horse, Hopeful more than confident!)
Wide open race so going to have a crack at the novelties for small percentages. Also going to have a 10/90 stake on Starthefriar providing he is paying $20 or above.
Boxed Trifecta / First 4. ; 1 2 6 7 9 ; Boxing 5 horses costs $60 for trifecta and $120 for first 4. (100%) STARTHEFRIAR is the one that can spice up the dividends. Flexi betting allows us to spend less for a smaller percentage of the dividend .
Wider Trifecta / First 4 1st ; 1 7 9 ; 2nd 1 7 9 , 3rd 1 2 5 6 7 9 10 , 4th 1 2 5 6 7 9 10 12. Only having my 3 top rated runners for first and 2nd allows us to add most of the other top 4 chances . This version costs $30 for trifecta and $150 for first 4 (100%)
Good luck if you decide to follow and GO STARTHEFRIAR !
Best Value Belmont r4 Bon Odyssey; Terrific win at only start 3 when sitting outside a tearaway leader, putting that runner to bed at the top of the straight and holding the chasing pack at bay easily. That was a weak maiden so granted she steps up in class but if she can cross over from the gate relatively easy then should take some catching. $7 each way on a typical tough winter midweek program is my only play of the day.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 Manhattan Money ; Has won 3 from her last 4. Cloak & Dagger offers stiffer opposition however is drawn 10 and likely to settle next to last whereas she has drawn 1 and will just need a gap at the top of the straight. She also drops in weight for her rise in class.
Kalgoorlie Quaddie (r4-7); 2 3 6 8 9 10 11 , 9 , field , 1. $63 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r7 Free Trade; Went to a new level at the end of last campaign. Trials have indicated he hasn’t gone backwards. He should get a soft lead in a race full of backmarkers which is unusual for a feature 1200m sprint. Not a perfect first up record however it has been reported he is only having the one run before being freshened for some big spring assignments so expect him to beat these.
Best Value Belmont r8 Flower of Scotland; Bounced back into her terrific form at this track and distance last start , demolishing an easier midweeker to make it 4/5 this prep. Her one miss was over 1400m when she was pushed wide off the track . Clearly this is a much tougher assignment but $16/4.25 for a mare in this kind of form looks juicy enough for me.
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Excellent Dream ; Has proven to be too fast and tough over this track and distance on wet tracks at both starts this prep. Exact same condtions today. $2 is rock bottom but on a tough day the best bet on the card.
r5 Novelties 1st 1 2nd 6 7 9 3rd 6 7 9 4th field
Best Value Belmont r7 Great Heist; Won very impressively over 1200m on a soft 6 first up. Ran on well 2nd up in a race that was run on a Wednesday but was easily Saturday quality. Looks suited at 1400m 3rd up. 60kg a test but $7.50 each way looks overs.
Belmont Quaddie (r4-7); 5 , 1 , 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 12 , 1 3 11. $27 for 100%
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