Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r3 Island Missile ; Finally broke a very long drought last start winning a midweek c5 with a solid finishing burst. Hasn’t done much wrong since landing in WA and while this is technically a Saturday race in the middle of the masters , It’s only a 1 metro 57+ and the opposition doesn’t look much tougher. Has a good record at 1400m.

Ascot r4 I’m Pretty ; Steps up to 1400m first time this prep and even more importantly gets Pike. Pike can improve any horse but this horse has looked a Saturday horse at times when Pike rides and ordinary midweek battler without. The Each Way bet of the day.

Ascot r9 Betting Strategy; Stageman each way.

Novelties

1st ; 1 8 16

2nd ; 1 2 8 16 ( $6 quinella $9 Exacta)

3rd ; 1 2 4.​6.​7.​8.​12.​13.​16 ($ 63 Trifecta)

4th ; 1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​12.​13.​15.​16 ($567 First4)

Ascot r10 Money Maher ; Injury has robbed this very talented horse of a shot at some of the big races. He should be nearing peak fitness 3rd up off a long spell and somewhere near his best would account for this field . Each way.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Narrogin r5 Orange Strudel ; 7yo mare who hasn’t won for a while but along with Foo Trouble , has generally raced in stronger company. I’m not a fan of backing horses with 60+ kgs which leaves me with Orange Strudel as the one to beat.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Bunbury r6 Sheza Chalmer ; Been impressed with her two starts to date . Gave a good kick this track and distance last start to easily hold off a highly regarded odds on favourite. The step from maiden grade to c1 is never easy but with natural progression she is the one to beat.

Bunbury r5 Black Venture ; Not many Blackfriars progeny look sharp over 930m at lark hill trials , this fella has been doing it with seemingly plenty left in the tank.

Bunbury r8 On Red Alert ; Was a class above them this track and distance last start. C1 to C5 is a massive step up however both horse and jockey are flying. The money has already come for Tradensia. I thought 60kg’s first up was an ask however home track , 2/2 at the distance and this stable rarely miss when the money is on so very wary.

Bunbury Quaddie ; 8 , 8 , field , 4 . $14 for 100% * While three standout legs is very tough to land it keeps it cheap and If we back them to win as singles then if 2/3 win we still come out on top.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Bunbury r7 Agent Jay ; Impressive win first up , running on hard over 1000m same track. Loves Bunbury and 1200m suits 2nd up.

Bunbury r4 Treasured Prize; Solid 3rd on debut despite working. Has Pike to negotiate the tough draw today.

Bunbury r6 ( 1 2 ) 4 5 ; Duckgirl ie Angelique’s Fame is 2nd up today. Think it is primarily a race between her and Beret. Snippirahana and Miss Ivy League other chances. Box trifecta or just cheer hard for Angelique’s. She’s a bit short to back for mine .

Bunbury r9 Heaven’s Gift ; Looks ready for the trip 3rd up. Her form behind Chantrea in this distance range is very strong for this.

Bunbury Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; field , 9 , 9 , 1 2 . $22 for 100%

Bunbury Quaddie (r7-10) ; 2 6 , 2 10 , 3 , 3 4 9 . $6 for 100%

Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r9 Pym’s Royale / Flow ; Two bet strategy for our best bet today as I’m keen to take on the favourite. Pym’s was 6 weeks between runs when running on into 2nd behind Money Matters in the Hannans at Kalgoorlie . That horse controlled the race from the front and was flying at the time. Again ran on late in the Northam Cup over 1600m on a leaders track behind another all the way winner. Nice tick over trial since and has the turn of foot to win this. Flow has run 2nd at his last two , again in the Northam Cup and last week behind key Railway hope Truly Great where they put a space on the rest. Laverod is a nice horse but gross unders at $3 in my opinion.

Ascot r1 Long Beach ; We rock up to Railway Stakes day and race 1’s market is fittingly dominated by a Peter’s horse to be ridden by Pike . Can be a bit hit and miss , but in a field of 6 he should get clear air and round these up. Boomtastic will give him something to catch and looks the quinella / exacta horse.

Ascot r 8 RAILWAY STAKES

SELECTIONS ; 1ST 4 KAY CEE , 2ND 11 INSPIRATIONAL GIRL 3RD 15 TRULY GREAT 4TH 2 MATERIAL MAN

BETTING STRATEGY ; 50% of stake on KAY CEE win and 50% on TRULY GREAT each way.

Novelties

1st ; 4 11 15

2nd ; 2 4 11 14 15 ($10 quinella $12 exacta )

3rd & 4th ; 1 2 4 9 11 12 14 15 ($72 trifecta $360 first4 )

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Northam r7 American Choice ; Although it ran last at latest run it wasn’t beaten that far and this is a massive drop in class. Should get every possible from gate 1 and the 3kg claim comes in handy.

Northam r6 Mr Delegator; Promising middle distance type first up over 1300m. Better over further however this isn’t strong and he won a 1200m trial leading in.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r8 Aberdeen Queen ; Sits 4 ratings points above the 2nd highest rated runner and has a 50% career winning strike rate. Great opportunity for visiting Victorian 3kg claiming apprentice Carleen Hefel to win a metro race. First up no trial , the market will play a key role in telling us if she’s ready. Definitely advise to wait and see , a big drift would turn me off betting.

Ascot r6 Holyoake ; She has been getting a long way back and flying home over 1400m. 2nd up she broke her maiden and 3rd up she ran 2nd to the talented Brave Dream. Ready for a crack at 1600m .

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r7 Snickerdoodledandy ; Looks best suited to the step up to 1600m considering it only got going late in the Burgess Queen (1400m) and was pulling away from them on the line. Wet track no issue at all. Magical Dream has same explosive turn of foot however likely to get too far back .

Ascot r3 Eeyore Wayz ; Drops from WFA to a 66+ and carries same weight (58.5kgs). Very effective over 1000m and on wet ground. Hate betting against The Lane Train. Resortman is all class however draw and 1000m not ideal .

Ascot r4 Kelvin; Hard horse to catch both as a punter and when he’s on song and running along in front. Big effort first up when working hard early and only run down late by two smart ones. Kinder map gives him a big chance.

Ascot r5 Truly Great ; Last chance to qualify for the Railway. He is my early pick for both the Railway and Kingston Town so need him to win. We already found him at $51 for the Kingston . I’m more interested in the $13 for the Railway (Bet 365) than piling into the $1.85 to qualify. 1500m is the only concern, hopefully you can make ground today , small field helps with that. The Media Baron from last prep would be very hard to beat. No surprise if he ran a big race at $19.

r5 Novelties; 1st 9

2nd 3 8 $2 exacta/Quinella

3rd / 4th field $14 trifecta $84 first four.

Ascot r8 Stageman ; Making a bad habit of blowing the start. Been flooding home from impossible positions in similar fields. Only needs to jump and hold a midfield spot to be right in the finish. Each way.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Bunbury r1 Kimberley Boy ; On debut coming off some impressive trials. From leading yard and looks a Saturday horse in the making. Currently $1.90 , I’m hoping for even money minimum.

Bunbury r2 Testing Love ; Stormed home on debut behind an all the way winner. That runner then went back to back yesterday. Another shorty that should be winning, a good multi option with our best bet in r1.

Bunbury r4 Noble Laurence; Came from last to 3rd on debut . 2nd then won a Saturday race and the winner ran 2nd again yesterday in a c3.

Bunbury Early Quaddie (r1-4); 3 , 10 , 1 2 3 4 8 12 , 7 . $6 for 100%

Bunbury r7 ; Selections 1st 7 ANGELIQUE'S FAME , 2nd 5 AGENT JAY 3rd 4 AMELIA BEDELIA 4th 6 FOO TROUBLE

Summary ; In a likely wide open market , luck in running or best ride probably decides the winner. No better combination than Michael Lane and Chris Parnham operate out of Bunbury and we are called Lucky Duck so putting us on top! No surprise to see Agent Jay alongside the whole way , Amelia Bedelia getting every opportunity and Foo Trouble the best of the leaders. The chances don’t end there.

Betting Strategy ; Has Opened $5 / $2 Think it will drift out. I suggest 20/80 split to maximize profit out of place.

Novelties 1st ; 5 7

2nd ; 4 5 6 7 ($6 Quinella / Exacta )

3rd ; 2 4 5 6 7 10 12 ( $60 Trifecta)

4th ; 2 4 5 6 7 10 12 ($240 first4)

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Silent Act ; Bit risky making a ten start maiden a special but recent 2nds behind Beau Zoom and Brave Dream should be good enough form to win this.

Best Value Ascot r8 Masquerade ; Has run ok in much stronger races behind horses that would start very short in this. $8 is a good value each way play.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r1 Sassy Trader ; Competitive with Kissonallforcheeks form is far superior to what everything else brings to the table. Very keen on this one today.

Ascot r9 Elite St ; Was showing great signs at the midweeks before a break. Came back even stronger by putting away a strong field with an electrifying burst of speed. Battle Storm was good from last in the same race but again draws poorly and will be giving them another big head start.

Flemington r8 Arcadia Queen ; Horses that run well in the Cox Plate invariably go close in this race. She was enormous , picking herself up after nearly falling and running on to be only beaten 4 lengths. Back on top of the ground she is clearly the one to beat here providing she has a run left in her. She is short enough considering the big jockey change. Suggest seeing how she parades in the yard to get a guide on her mood as mares can be cranky when they’re over the top.

Flemington Quaddie (r6-9) ; 2 3 , 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 , 9 , 11 15 $48 for 100%.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Flemington r3 Ancestry ; Been singing his praises all prep and am pleasantly surprised by the current price of $3.50. If this was around a bend I’m guessing he would be very close to odds on. He has failed at his only attempt at straight racing , went solo that day against the pattern and it was 1200m. Over 1000m I’m going to take the chance he will handle it .

2nd Best Bet Flemington r9 Written Beauty ; Broke Nature Strips track record on a lightning fast Moonee Valley last start and looked like it still had gears to use. Outside draw looks perfect to build the revs and blow them away again. Add Pike in the last and I can see this being one of the goes of the carnival Australia wide. Minhaaj has September Run form this track and distance , That’s red hot form and at $8.50 can easily save on her Obvious Quinella.

Flemington Quaddie (r6-9); 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 11 12 , field , 1 *11 , *4 6.

$144 for 100% standing out the 1 and 6 last two legs.

$576 to include the 11 r8 and 4 r9 ( I suggest a small percentage of this one as insurance)

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Cup Day Beer Fund

Best Bet Flemington r5 Ain’tnodeeldun ; Will be at Bunbury races cup day so I have settled on local champ Damian Lane to steer us home on this exciting 3yo Dundeel colt. Held Victoria Quay at bay in Adelaide this distance. That filly then won Saturday’s Wakeful so the form stacks up.

Melbourne Cup ; 1st 17 The Chosen One 2nd 12 Prince of Arran 3rd 13 Surprise Baby 4th 15 Russian Camelot. Best Roughie (Besides 17 ) 20 Etah James .

Summary

Don’t have a firm opinion this year so have gone with the odds in selecting The Chosen One . I could easily pick another 10 horses and miss the winner such is the difficulty that is the Melbourne Cup. Great race to pool some money together with your mates and try and jag a slice of the huge novelties on offer. Good luck Ducks and give us your own tips in the comments.

Novelties 1st & 2nd ; 12 13 15 17 $6 quinella

3rd ; 1 5 7 12 13 15 17 20 21 $84 trifecta

4th ; 1 4 5 7 11 12 13 15 16 17 20 21 24 $924 first four.

Ascot r8 Tonkatuff ; Faces same conditions as last start where he was a convincing winner.

Best Value Ascot r9 Solaia ; This is a cracking race. Tipped her as a moral first up at Northam where she got too far out of her ground over 1000m. Went forward 2nd up in town and gave them a thrashing over 1200m , the trainer almost declared her a certainty for the guineas , such is his confidence in her. He obviously 1400 to 1600m will suit even more. Didn’t back her that day and now I’m trying to get back on the bandwagon in a very good field. Magical Dream was breathtaking last start , Kissonallforcheeks is explosive , Snickerdoodledandy desperately unlucky in Magical Dream race , heaps of winners have come from races she has won easily. Blowmeout’s maiden win was emphatic and it doesn’t stop there!

Bunbury r8 Airlie Queen ; Ran them down on debut over 1000m then went to a very strong 3yo omwly where she hit the line nicely. This is much easier and if they are making ground out wide she will be steaming over the top of them with only 53kgs on her back after claim for in form apprentice.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Mount Barker r4 London Miss ; Finished locked together with our very own Angelique’s Fame at her only trial this time in. Had a minor foot issue last time in hence the disappointing results. Her previous form is strong enough for this.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r6 Niccovi ; Has only won the 1 race but has always raced in top company , including placings at listed and group 3 level in Victoria. 1000m was always going to be too short first up but hit the line hard into 3rd in what should prove to be a hot form race. Does have to give Comes a Time 4kgs , the obvious danger for quinella and quaddie players.

Ascot r4 Notorious One ; Big raw gelding that has no idea how to race properly. If the penny drops then he blows them away . It’s a big if however so I suggest saving on Heaven’s Gift , very confident one of the two wins.

Best Value Flemington r7 Cetshweyo; Was awesome at just start two over 1800m Flemington. Last start was run as a snails pace and was caught flat footed however was still running strong to the line. Back to Flemington and dry ground , bred to eat up the distance and winkers added to keep him focused. $18 looks a good each way play.

Kalgoorlie r1 Starthefriar ; Our beloved Donald has found a new lease on life at his new stable. This is a massive step up in class however he will not know himself with 52.5kgs , dropping 5.5kgs on his narrow defeat this track and distance last start. Will drop out to last and come wide , in a field of five that is not as hard as it seems. Fingermark is also very well in at the weights and hardest to beat.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Northam r7 Phoneme ; Took a few runs for gun trainer Michael Lane to get the best out of him since arriving from the east but was heavily backed and bolted in prior to a freshen up. Have it on good authority that he is good to go and has big barrier advantage on key rival On Red Alert.

Northam Quaddie (r4-7); 1 4 9 10 , 2 4 , 3 4 6 7 8 9 , 1 7 . $96 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r3 Red Hot Hope; 1/2 sister to group 1 winner Kay Cee who showed her own potential with a last to 3rd finishing burst over 1200m on debut . Conditions are predicted to suit swooping today . Straight to 1500m will take some doing but she is definetly the one to follow .

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Northam r7 American Choice ; Comes with superior form lines along with stablemate Nuhad . Drawn to get the better run and looks very hard to beat. Backing it straight out then going wide in the quaddie for insurance.

Northam r9 Samsurian; If it can stretch it’s 1100-1200m form behind numerous Saturday city winners to 1400m then it is clearly the horse to beat.

Northam Quaddie (r6-9); 2 3 , 1 2 4 6 7 , 1 4 7 , 7. $45 for 100%

Been a tough couple of weeks so here’s hoping the punting gods are listening .

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r5 Naughty by Nature; If I rate her a legitimate Railway horse then obviously I think she can win here. Has the barrier advantage over very talented dangers in Western Pride and Dom To Shoot. Expecting her to settle in the front half on the fence and jockey Clint Johnson Porter will leave no stone unturned to get her into the clear and keep the Railway dream alive. Can go each way at current prices.

Best Value Ascot r6 Oristano ; When markets opened Thursday morning I had to hold myself back from unloading at $8.50. With three emergencies all right in the market securing a start it has blown out to $12/$3.75. Scratching my head trying to work out why , I can only presume they are predicting fence / on pace conditions. He doesn’t have to get as far back as last start in a stronger race. 3 wide with cover would be perfect and if that is no disadvantage then we are getting outrageous value on a horse with an explosive turn of foot at the top of his game.

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Friday Fill Up

Best Bet Moonee Valley r4 So Si Bon ; Coming out of Group 1’s to a field of 5 and only 4kg from top to bottom , he really should be winning here. If the promised deluge arrives , confidence soars as his main danger Iconoclasm has a terrible wet track record. I will be waiting for a track downgrade before deciding how hard to go.

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