Best Bet Ascot r1 Son Son ; In my opinion the best horse in the race , hoping the instructions are to jump and run from barrier 2 to keep it simple for 4kg claimer engaged. In a field of six , he should get his chance and is weighted to win.
Ascot r5 Gunmetal Grey ; Trialed like a good horse and won well on debut. Drawn to get every chance in running and 3kg claim for inform apprentice makes her well placed to remain undefeated.
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Best Bet Pinjarra r5 Miss Ivy League ; Tried to pinch it out in front first up when racing keenly and running 3rd in a 1200m c3 behind Beret and our very own Angelique’s Fame. That’s very strong form for a c1. First Pinjarra meeting of the season so hard to predict a pattern however seasons gone bye have favored on pace runners . Should be leading halfway up the straight , last 100m could be the query.
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Best Bet Ascot r2 Phoneme ; His first few runs for gun trainer Michael Lane were nothing special. He obviously worked him out because towards the end of last campaign and beginning of this one he is flying. Absolutely no luck last run when forced to go back from horror gate and being hopelessly held up before rocketing home. Unplaced at 1600m in five attempts however as stated previously , a different horse now. Another tricky draw to overcome and 60kgs makes jockey Chris Parnham’s job very difficult however on a brutally tough day , I’m happy to make him the best bet on a 30/70 % each way basis.
Ascot r7 Celebrity Queen ; The only question is the 1400m. If she gets it she simply wins. This is often the question for this race with Winterbottom horses stretching out to the 1400m. Class usually prevails and she looks the good thing of the day but is priced accordingly ($2).
Ascot r9 Angelic Miss; Basing this tip on her 1200m form and the fact Chris Parnham gets the best out of her. The form behind her last win is very questionable and failed at Northam yesterday but she is drawn to get a lovely run and is an each way quote.
Ascot r8 Kinstown Town Classic; Quick Overview of the group 1 ; Impossible! Pre barrier draw Inspirational Girl looked close to a moral with the ease with which she won the Railway. Drawn the car park and up to wfa is a task . A horse hasn’t been able to do the double since 2009. We found Truly Great at 50’s in future markets. Ready for the 1800m and further , I expect him to be ridden further back than ok run in the Railway. Not super confident but happy Chris Parnham is back on and $20 is still a decent price . Too Close The Sun looks the barrier draw winner. Much better suited to 1800m and can’t see him not being in front and the one to chase down. The 3yo’s are always very hard to beat under wfa conditions. I don’t rate these ones as good as past 3yo winners but you must respect them. The Three highlighted go in my quaddie and exotics if thats any help.
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Northam r1 3Y SW MDN 1000m ; 3 PRIZE PURSUIT PETER KNUCKEY 6 57
Nothing more exciting than selecting and buying a yearling , watching them grow and mature into a racehorse , then getting to the racetrack for their debut .Huey has really impressed us with his work in training and trial performances so far. Peter Knuckey has been on his back since he was broken in and has always said he feels like a very talented horse. He is doing it on raw ability as he is still physically immature and will come back even bigger and stronger next prep. In time we envision 1400-1600m to be his pet distance however he has shown good speed at his trials to give us confidence he can run a race on debut.
At current odds of $4.80 / $2.25 (NTD )I’m Happy to suggest a 40/60 % split of your stake.
1st ; 3 4
2nd 2 3 4 $3 quinella $4 exacta
3rd 2 3 4 $4 trifecta
4th field $12 first 4
Good Luck Ducks and go Huey!
Northam r5 Trevern ; Northam can often suit front runners , that’s where he should settle , hard to run down.
Northam r7 Amelia Bedelia ; The form out of her first up 2nd has been franked by others including our own Angelique’s Fame. Competitive race but is the one to beat on that effort.
Good Luck Ducks GO HUEY!
Bunbury R6 3UP CL3 54+ HCP 5 ANGELIQUE'S FAME MADI DERRICK (A2.0) 6 58.5
Don’t like anything at backable odds today so sharing my blog on our own runner. This is not a tip as such as I have OBEEH (1) rated on top but I will not be betting against my own horse. Below is my assessment of her chances and my bets on the race should you wish to follow.
Her two runs this time in have been full of merit, running good time against quality opponents. It doesn’t get any easier Wednesday with a competitive field nominated to face the starter. Madi Derrick gave her every chance last start and gets another go , her 2kg claim and barrier 6 gives us a great chance to be in the finish.
I have decided against tipping in order for this race.
25/75 % Each Way I have her marked at $8 / $2.60 . She has opened and remained rock steady at $6 / $2,15 (tabtouch) Should ease when percentages come down.
1st ; 1 5 *( 2 3 )
2nd; 1 2 3 5 $6 Quinella / Exacta
3rd ; 1 2 3 5 *$24 trifecta (include 2 and 3 for first in box trifecta)
4th ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10. $60 first 4
The Early money has been for n8 Leica Jaguar. Consider adding him for 2nd/3rd or include in box trifecta if you want a safer option. I will leave him out at my peril with Angelique’s regular jockey on in Chris Parnham , it will be nervous times if they are fighting it out down the straight!
GOOD LUCK DUCKS!
Best Bet Geraldton r1 Don’t Argue Buster ; Has a little bit of Metro maiden form , that should be winning this. Jockey Troy Turner is usually very reliable at Geraldton.
Best Value Geraldton r3 Dance of The South ; 3yo filly who at start 2 finished 6 lengths behind Fashion Queen at Bunbury over 1400m. That winner would start $1.04 against these. Put simply it’s a terrible field and specking she can improve as the distances increase while everything else has had their chance. Each Way.
Geraldton r8 Family Discussion ; Has only won 3 from 26 and is going for 3 in a row at this track and distance! Fair to say he has found his calling as a racehorse.
Geraldton r5 Starthefriar ; Special mention of our former warrior . If this was 1400-1500m he would be a bet to nothing. Back down in the weights he can run a big race however will have to sustain a long run from the back . When we had him 1600m was stretching him to his limit. For this reason it’s not a tip but we will be cheering for him all the same. Definitely goes in the Quaddie.
Geraldton Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 3 , 1 2 7 8 10 , 5 9 , 1 . $10 for 100%
Geraldton Quaddie (r5-8); 3 4 5 6 10 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 11 , 1 7 , 4. $90 for 100%
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Best Bet Ascot r3 Island Missile ; Finally broke a very long drought last start winning a midweek c5 with a solid finishing burst. Hasn’t done much wrong since landing in WA and while this is technically a Saturday race in the middle of the masters , It’s only a 1 metro 57+ and the opposition doesn’t look much tougher. Has a good record at 1400m.
Ascot r4 I’m Pretty ; Steps up to 1400m first time this prep and even more importantly gets Pike. Pike can improve any horse but this horse has looked a Saturday horse at times when Pike rides and ordinary midweek battler without. The Each Way bet of the day.
Ascot r9 Betting Strategy; Stageman each way.
Novelties
1st ; 1 8 16
2nd ; 1 2 8 16 ( $6 quinella $9 Exacta)
3rd ; 1 2 4.6.7.8.12.13.16 ($ 63 Trifecta)
4th ; 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.12.13.15.16 ($567 First4)
Ascot r10 Money Maher ; Injury has robbed this very talented horse of a shot at some of the big races. He should be nearing peak fitness 3rd up off a long spell and somewhere near his best would account for this field . Each way.
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Best Bet Narrogin r5 Orange Strudel ; 7yo mare who hasn’t won for a while but along with Foo Trouble , has generally raced in stronger company. I’m not a fan of backing horses with 60+ kgs which leaves me with Orange Strudel as the one to beat.
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Best Bet Bunbury r6 Sheza Chalmer ; Been impressed with her two starts to date . Gave a good kick this track and distance last start to easily hold off a highly regarded odds on favourite. The step from maiden grade to c1 is never easy but with natural progression she is the one to beat.
Bunbury r5 Black Venture ; Not many Blackfriars progeny look sharp over 930m at lark hill trials , this fella has been doing it with seemingly plenty left in the tank.
Bunbury r8 On Red Alert ; Was a class above them this track and distance last start. C1 to C5 is a massive step up however both horse and jockey are flying. The money has already come for Tradensia. I thought 60kg’s first up was an ask however home track , 2/2 at the distance and this stable rarely miss when the money is on so very wary.
Bunbury Quaddie ; 8 , 8 , field , 4 . $14 for 100% * While three standout legs is very tough to land it keeps it cheap and If we back them to win as singles then if 2/3 win we still come out on top.
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Best Bet Bunbury r7 Agent Jay ; Impressive win first up , running on hard over 1000m same track. Loves Bunbury and 1200m suits 2nd up.
Bunbury r4 Treasured Prize; Solid 3rd on debut despite working. Has Pike to negotiate the tough draw today.
Bunbury r6 ( 1 2 ) 4 5 ; Duckgirl ie Angelique’s Fame is 2nd up today. Think it is primarily a race between her and Beret. Snippirahana and Miss Ivy League other chances. Box trifecta or just cheer hard for Angelique’s. She’s a bit short to back for mine .
Bunbury r9 Heaven’s Gift ; Looks ready for the trip 3rd up. Her form behind Chantrea in this distance range is very strong for this.
Bunbury Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; field , 9 , 9 , 1 2 . $22 for 100%
Bunbury Quaddie (r7-10) ; 2 6 , 2 10 , 3 , 3 4 9 . $6 for 100%
Best Bet Ascot r9 Pym’s Royale / Flow ; Two bet strategy for our best bet today as I’m keen to take on the favourite. Pym’s was 6 weeks between runs when running on into 2nd behind Money Matters in the Hannans at Kalgoorlie . That horse controlled the race from the front and was flying at the time. Again ran on late in the Northam Cup over 1600m on a leaders track behind another all the way winner. Nice tick over trial since and has the turn of foot to win this. Flow has run 2nd at his last two , again in the Northam Cup and last week behind key Railway hope Truly Great where they put a space on the rest. Laverod is a nice horse but gross unders at $3 in my opinion.
Ascot r1 Long Beach ; We rock up to Railway Stakes day and race 1’s market is fittingly dominated by a Peter’s horse to be ridden by Pike . Can be a bit hit and miss , but in a field of 6 he should get clear air and round these up. Boomtastic will give him something to catch and looks the quinella / exacta horse.
Ascot r 8 RAILWAY STAKES
SELECTIONS ; 1ST 4 KAY CEE , 2ND 11 INSPIRATIONAL GIRL 3RD 15 TRULY GREAT 4TH 2 MATERIAL MAN
BETTING STRATEGY ; 50% of stake on KAY CEE win and 50% on TRULY GREAT each way.
Novelties
1st ; 4 11 15
2nd ; 2 4 11 14 15 ($10 quinella $12 exacta )
3rd & 4th ; 1 2 4 9 11 12 14 15 ($72 trifecta $360 first4 )
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Best Bet Northam r7 American Choice ; Although it ran last at latest run it wasn’t beaten that far and this is a massive drop in class. Should get every possible from gate 1 and the 3kg claim comes in handy.
Northam r6 Mr Delegator; Promising middle distance type first up over 1300m. Better over further however this isn’t strong and he won a 1200m trial leading in.
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Best Bet Ascot r8 Aberdeen Queen ; Sits 4 ratings points above the 2nd highest rated runner and has a 50% career winning strike rate. Great opportunity for visiting Victorian 3kg claiming apprentice Carleen Hefel to win a metro race. First up no trial , the market will play a key role in telling us if she’s ready. Definitely advise to wait and see , a big drift would turn me off betting.
Ascot r6 Holyoake ; She has been getting a long way back and flying home over 1400m. 2nd up she broke her maiden and 3rd up she ran 2nd to the talented Brave Dream. Ready for a crack at 1600m .
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Best Bet Ascot r7 Snickerdoodledandy ; Looks best suited to the step up to 1600m considering it only got going late in the Burgess Queen (1400m) and was pulling away from them on the line. Wet track no issue at all. Magical Dream has same explosive turn of foot however likely to get too far back .
Ascot r3 Eeyore Wayz ; Drops from WFA to a 66+ and carries same weight (58.5kgs). Very effective over 1000m and on wet ground. Hate betting against The Lane Train. Resortman is all class however draw and 1000m not ideal .
Ascot r4 Kelvin; Hard horse to catch both as a punter and when he’s on song and running along in front. Big effort first up when working hard early and only run down late by two smart ones. Kinder map gives him a big chance.
Ascot r5 Truly Great ; Last chance to qualify for the Railway. He is my early pick for both the Railway and Kingston Town so need him to win. We already found him at $51 for the Kingston . I’m more interested in the $13 for the Railway (Bet 365) than piling into the $1.85 to qualify. 1500m is the only concern, hopefully you can make ground today , small field helps with that. The Media Baron from last prep would be very hard to beat. No surprise if he ran a big race at $19.
r5 Novelties; 1st 9
2nd 3 8 $2 exacta/Quinella
3rd / 4th field $14 trifecta $84 first four.
Ascot r8 Stageman ; Making a bad habit of blowing the start. Been flooding home from impossible positions in similar fields. Only needs to jump and hold a midfield spot to be right in the finish. Each way.
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Best Bet Bunbury r1 Kimberley Boy ; On debut coming off some impressive trials. From leading yard and looks a Saturday horse in the making. Currently $1.90 , I’m hoping for even money minimum.
Bunbury r2 Testing Love ; Stormed home on debut behind an all the way winner. That runner then went back to back yesterday. Another shorty that should be winning, a good multi option with our best bet in r1.
Bunbury r4 Noble Laurence; Came from last to 3rd on debut . 2nd then won a Saturday race and the winner ran 2nd again yesterday in a c3.
Bunbury Early Quaddie (r1-4); 3 , 10 , 1 2 3 4 8 12 , 7 . $6 for 100%
Bunbury r7 ; Selections 1st 7 ANGELIQUE'S FAME , 2nd 5 AGENT JAY 3rd 4 AMELIA BEDELIA 4th 6 FOO TROUBLE
Summary ; In a likely wide open market , luck in running or best ride probably decides the winner. No better combination than Michael Lane and Chris Parnham operate out of Bunbury and we are called Lucky Duck so putting us on top! No surprise to see Agent Jay alongside the whole way , Amelia Bedelia getting every opportunity and Foo Trouble the best of the leaders. The chances don’t end there.
Betting Strategy ; Has Opened $5 / $2 Think it will drift out. I suggest 20/80 split to maximize profit out of place.
Novelties 1st ; 5 7
2nd ; 4 5 6 7 ($6 Quinella / Exacta )
3rd ; 2 4 5 6 7 10 12 ( $60 Trifecta)
4th ; 2 4 5 6 7 10 12 ($240 first4)
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Best Bet Ascot r2 Silent Act ; Bit risky making a ten start maiden a special but recent 2nds behind Beau Zoom and Brave Dream should be good enough form to win this.
Best Value Ascot r8 Masquerade ; Has run ok in much stronger races behind horses that would start very short in this. $8 is a good value each way play.
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Best Bet Ascot r1 Sassy Trader ; Competitive with Kissonallforcheeks form is far superior to what everything else brings to the table. Very keen on this one today.
Ascot r9 Elite St ; Was showing great signs at the midweeks before a break. Came back even stronger by putting away a strong field with an electrifying burst of speed. Battle Storm was good from last in the same race but again draws poorly and will be giving them another big head start.
Flemington r8 Arcadia Queen ; Horses that run well in the Cox Plate invariably go close in this race. She was enormous , picking herself up after nearly falling and running on to be only beaten 4 lengths. Back on top of the ground she is clearly the one to beat here providing she has a run left in her. She is short enough considering the big jockey change. Suggest seeing how she parades in the yard to get a guide on her mood as mares can be cranky when they’re over the top.
Flemington Quaddie (r6-9) ; 2 3 , 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 , 9 , 11 15 $48 for 100%.
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Best Bet Flemington r3 Ancestry ; Been singing his praises all prep and am pleasantly surprised by the current price of $3.50. If this was around a bend I’m guessing he would be very close to odds on. He has failed at his only attempt at straight racing , went solo that day against the pattern and it was 1200m. Over 1000m I’m going to take the chance he will handle it .
2nd Best Bet Flemington r9 Written Beauty ; Broke Nature Strips track record on a lightning fast Moonee Valley last start and looked like it still had gears to use. Outside draw looks perfect to build the revs and blow them away again. Add Pike in the last and I can see this being one of the goes of the carnival Australia wide. Minhaaj has September Run form this track and distance , That’s red hot form and at $8.50 can easily save on her Obvious Quinella.
Flemington Quaddie (r6-9); 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 11 12 , field , 1 *11 , *4 6.
$144 for 100% standing out the 1 and 6 last two legs.
$576 to include the 11 r8 and 4 r9 ( I suggest a small percentage of this one as insurance)
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Best Bet Flemington r5 Ain’tnodeeldun ; Will be at Bunbury races cup day so I have settled on local champ Damian Lane to steer us home on this exciting 3yo Dundeel colt. Held Victoria Quay at bay in Adelaide this distance. That filly then won Saturday’s Wakeful so the form stacks up.
Melbourne Cup ; 1st 17 The Chosen One 2nd 12 Prince of Arran 3rd 13 Surprise Baby 4th 15 Russian Camelot. Best Roughie (Besides 17 ) 20 Etah James .
Summary
Don’t have a firm opinion this year so have gone with the odds in selecting The Chosen One . I could easily pick another 10 horses and miss the winner such is the difficulty that is the Melbourne Cup. Great race to pool some money together with your mates and try and jag a slice of the huge novelties on offer. Good luck Ducks and give us your own tips in the comments.
Novelties 1st & 2nd ; 12 13 15 17 $6 quinella
3rd ; 1 5 7 12 13 15 17 20 21 $84 trifecta
4th ; 1 4 5 7 11 12 13 15 16 17 20 21 24 $924 first four.
Ascot r8 Tonkatuff ; Faces same conditions as last start where he was a convincing winner.
Best Value Ascot r9 Solaia ; This is a cracking race. Tipped her as a moral first up at Northam where she got too far out of her ground over 1000m. Went forward 2nd up in town and gave them a thrashing over 1200m , the trainer almost declared her a certainty for the guineas , such is his confidence in her. He obviously 1400 to 1600m will suit even more. Didn’t back her that day and now I’m trying to get back on the bandwagon in a very good field. Magical Dream was breathtaking last start , Kissonallforcheeks is explosive , Snickerdoodledandy desperately unlucky in Magical Dream race , heaps of winners have come from races she has won easily. Blowmeout’s maiden win was emphatic and it doesn’t stop there!
Bunbury r8 Airlie Queen ; Ran them down on debut over 1000m then went to a very strong 3yo omwly where she hit the line nicely. This is much easier and if they are making ground out wide she will be steaming over the top of them with only 53kgs on her back after claim for in form apprentice.
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Best Bet Mount Barker r4 London Miss ; Finished locked together with our very own Angelique’s Fame at her only trial this time in. Had a minor foot issue last time in hence the disappointing results. Her previous form is strong enough for this.
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