Best Value Ascot r5 Kia Ora Star ; Peaked on the run 2nd up when briefly looking like fighting out the finish. Is a hard horse to catch but fitter again and winner and 3rd in that race have won since. $13 / $3.40 is a good each way bet for mine.
Ascot r9 Leica Jaguar; Is racing very consistently and drops 4.5kgs on his last run. Drawn to get the run of the race behind a fast tempo.
Best Bet Pinjarra r2 Somethingready ; Should of won on debut , getting back and held up before rattling home in restricted room. Ran down by a smart one in Graceful Girl next start who franked the form by winning a 3yo midweek at Ascot yesterday.
Pinjarra r7 Dani Bella ; Weighted right up to her best but drawn to get it very soft from barrier 1 whereas the favourite London Miss has an awkward barrier to negotiate. She is flying however since stepping up to 1400m. Reguardless is weighted and drawn to threaten if she handles the extra 200m. Dani Bella each way as should place from the draw.
Been a rough couple of days with Best Bets going down narrowly but punting is a long term game with lots of ups and downs so we proceed with caution. I’m going small stakes today to rebuild the bank.
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Best Bet Ascot r5 Iseered Iseered; It’s debut win was only a Kalgoorlie maiden but it was carnival time and of better quality than normal, it was also dominant. Not usually a fan of big trial wins when they are ridden out but it was in quick time and suggested it is ready to fire first up. Looks good speed engaged with Fish Hook engaged. Mystery Man the clear danger if they go too hard early. Good quinella . A win from any outside the three mentioned would shock.
Both Bets have been scratched today . New Best is Mystery Man based on the race analysis above. Fish Hook will be hard to run down.
Ascot r1 In The Boat ; Highly promising 3yo who won 4 trials before demolishing 4 rivals in a Bunbury maiden by landing on the bunny and sprinting clear with what looked like plenty left in the tank. This is much tougher and were currently looking at $1.90 but I think it has too much pace for the others too catch him over 1200m. SCRATCHED
Ascot Quaddie (r4-7); 4 7 , 6 9 , 1 3 5 9 14 , 10. $20 for 100%
Best Bet Mount Barker r5 Under The Radar ; Last start ran a close up 3rd at Ascot . Races on pace and should prove hard to run down at a venue that suits that scenario .
Mount Barker r4 Secret Assault ; 9yo veteran who is a 1000m specialist. From barrier 1 he should lead and take some catching against these.
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Best Bet Ascot r9 Naughty By Nature ; The only thing that has beaten this mare last two starts has been a severe lack of pace as she is a natural backmarker. The winner of those races , Dance Music is a quality mare herself and she was given a picnic in front .Corporate Larrikan only knows one way and that’s to lead and run so better scenario here. Usually on leader bias easterly wind days the last is ok , check the pattern on the day.
Ascot r3 Phoneme; Last of the Line is all the rage in this market and I can understand why , especially if on pace is dominating as many predict. I have it on good authority that our selection is absolutely flying at home and the mail is very rarely wrong. Weather you take the win or quinella with the favourite , I expect both to go very close.
Ascot r8 Why Choose Her ; Was flying at the end of 1000m when nearly grabbing Indian Pacific who got it easy in front. That won’t be the case here with speedster Mervyn engaged. 2kg weight swing also in her favor . Barrier 1 tricky for a swooper and yet to win from 13 attempts at Ascot . For this reason I suggest a 25/75 split of your stake.
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Best Bet Pinjarra r3 What About Moi ; Finished alongside our champ Prize Pursuit on debut over the unsuitable 1000m. Straight to town and wasn’t disgraced despite resenting the blinkers. Last start showed his versatility by sitting outside the leader and was only run down narrowly by a heavily backed Peters Investments runner. If he has a run left in him in his debut campaign then he should beat these.
Pinjarra r2 Spicy Dancer ; Showed a liking for the Pinjarra straight at start 2 when racing on pace and running 2nd. Drawn the right side and leading hoop Chris Parnham retains the ride.
Pinjarra r8 0MWLY 60+ HCP 1200m 14/01/21 5.15pm (WST)
Angelique’s Fame heads to Pinjarra Thursday and as always she is destined to give her all and be in the finish. First look at the track and with the perfect barrier draw (3) , over her pet distance (1200m) and some weight relief (55kgs). Leading hoop Chris Parnham retains the ride.
Race Analysis ; More Aces (6) is a 333k stakes earner and the likely leader. Pinjarra’s usual pattern suits on pace runners. While not in his prime he can still be tough to run down in this company. Bedouin Belle (2) has only won 3 / 27 but her recent form is good in stronger races. Gifted Warrior (7) has improved at his new stable who just happened to train 6 winners at Albany on Sunday. Last start Angelique’s Fame (8) was caught without cover chasing a frantic tempo over 1100m. While we were disappointed with the run she should find cover here off a softer tempo . This will suit her down to the ground and any of her previous runs were good enough to have her fighting out the finish.
Betting Strategy ; 20/80 % Each Way. It’s a wide open market with Bedouin Belle opening $4.40 favourite. Our current price off $6 / $2.25 looks a little skinny. Suggest waiting for the percentages to come down as can’t see it getting much shorter. Around $8/$2.50 looks a good bet.
Novelties ;
1st & 2nd ; 2 6 7 8 $6 quinella $12 exacta
3rd & 4th ; 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 $72 trifecta $360 first 4
Good Luck Ducks!
Best Bet Bunbury r3 Mischievous Diva ; Hasn’t learnt how to put a field away hence is always catching the eye running on without winning. Drawn better in a very weak field, she wont get a better opportunity.
Bunbury r4 Ginger Baker; Was beaten by the current favourite Apache Patrol first up over 1200m. Then won his maiden over 1400m which he stays at for the return clash. 3rd up with a run at 1400m under his belt gives him his chance to turn the tables.
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Best Bet Albany r3 Losing Ticket ; Last three runs in this distance range were good enough to run a big race here at each way prices.
Albany r4 Big Bada Boom ; Although Sowar has the ratings to win this , I can’t accept $1.90 for a horse that has only won 2 from 17 and has to carry 61kgs even with a 3kg claimer on. His Albany record does suggest he is the one to beat but at the odds I prefer to go with Pike on a horse that appreciated getting to the mile at just start 3 .
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Best Bet Geraldton r4 All In Red ; Half sister to our very own Prize Pursuit and is showing real potential . Loves this track and distance , $5.50 each way looks overs.
Ascot r3 La Farola; $3.50 for a last start Saturday winner who also ran out of her skin against the older horses first up vs $2 for a gelding that demolished a weak maiden on debut. Interestingly Parnham got off last start and Pike picked up the ride. The same thing as happened here with Parnham getting back on after riding the fav on debut. Going for the value, hopefully he has chosen right this time.
Ascot r2 Sniparoochy ; Looks a race in two and am of the belief the favourite has too much speed despite drawing outside her main rival. The stable is flying.
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Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Ginger Flyer ; Expecting a case of deja vu from her first up run where she jumped to the front and won with a leg in the air over this distance.
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Best Bet Ascot r6 Naughty By Nature ; Run of the race in the Starstruck when undone by the lack of pace. Faces same conundrum here but hoping the step up to 1800m see’s the on pace runners out. Very confident she runs top 3 and she is an each way price.
Ascot r5 Platinum Bullet ; Was 3 wide without cover last start and still managed to out bob a smart one . Pike jumps on and she should be charging at the line again.
Perth Cup ; Not a straight out betting race for me. Truly Great has a lap on them class rise but barrier 12 with 60kg’s out to 2400m is still a test for any horse. Neufbosc is flying and should get every opportunity from barrier 5 with 54kgs. Adornment is flying but will need to go forward and find a spot from barrier 16.
Novelties
1st ; 1 4
2nd ; 1 4 6 13 $6 quinella / exacta
3rd ; 1 3 4 5 6 7 9 12 13 14 15 16 $60 trifecta
4th ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 12 13 14 15 16 $600 first 4
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Best Value Pinjarra r7 Flower Of Scotland ; On paper she is drawn and weighted terribly with an inexperienced apprentice booked. She will be posted off the track all the way with 61.5kgs in a much harder race than last time. Funny thing about this mare is that’s when she runs her best races. She has won 4/7 this track and at $26/$6 we don’t have to have much on to have a throw at the stumps.
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Best Bet Ascot r8 Neufbosc; Put the writing on the wall last start with a strong finishing 2nd where the winner got a picnic in front. The grand final will be next weeks Perth Cup however looks like taking this out on the way.
Ascot r2 Hot Mix; Unbeaten filly who faces her toughest test to date but looks capable of going on with it. Has a sharp turn of foot. I presume Chris Parnham had the choice over La Farola who now gets Pike. She is the clear danger and quinella horse.
Ascot r4 Son Of A God ; Trialed like a beast and maps to get world perfect trail on Ziebell who is flying but suspect at 1200m. Price is gone ($2.20 - $1.80 ) but good multi leg.
Ascot r5 Mr Kunafa ; Very quietly ridden 2nd up after getting back to last. Expect a peak performance today at each way price. Kelly’s Callisto is the horse to beat. Definitely at least save on him.
Best Value Ascot r7 Agent Jay; Won’t need to work as hard early from good gate this time. Was still only beaten 1.7 l and has the option of taking a sit with good speed engaged. Suggest 20/80 staking plan.
Ascot Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 3 10 , field , 8 , 2 4 7 . $66 for 100%
Ascot Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1 3 4 5 6 , 1 2 3 9 10 , 2 , 1 6 9 10 11 12 . $150 for 100%
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Best Bet Bunbury r5 Real Passion; Pike travels to Bunbury for team Cerise N White on a regally bred daughter of Pierro on debut. Latest trial was eye catching , weaving through from last under little riding. It is short enough due to the connections and rider but should open her account on debut.
Best Value Bunbury r8 Adore Me; Made ground from last on debut over 1100m. The run was missed by punters as she went round at $26 next start and finished over the top of them over 1400m. If she improves again and can get a reasonable run from tricky gate she can run a race at $12/$3.40.
Bunbury Quaddie (r5-8); 7 8 , 1 2 8 9 10 , 1 , 1 9. $20 for 100%
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Best Bet Ascot r8 Dew West ; Was given an absolute peach by Pike first up , landing in the one one from the outside barrier and strong on the line with 60kg. Drops to 55.5kgs and if Pike can slot in again she will be awfully hard to beat. If Miss Ivy League can cross Ladies of London then she can run a cheeky race at each way prices.
Novelties
1st ; 5 12
2nd ; 1 5 11 12 ($6 boxed trifecta $6 exacta)
3rd ; 1 5 8 10 11 12 ($24 trifecta)
4th ; 1 2 5 7 8 10 11 12 14 ($144 First 4)
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Pinjarra r5 1200 MDN; 3 PRIZE PURSUIT MITCHELL PATEMAN ( 4 ) 56.5 kg
After an encouraging 2nd over 1000m on debut , Prize Pursuit has opened $3.70 favourite ($3.10 after scratchings / support ) for an all aged 1200m maiden at Pinjarra Park this Thursday. He derived great benefit out of his first up run and his work since suggests he will be fighting out the finish. Drawn perfectly in 4 , he has good natural pace and will come out positive. If something wants to keep him out or attack relentlessly from out wide then he is versatile enough to let them go and run on. Mischievous Diva is the class dropper and Heels a Plenty knocking on the door , both will have to either do some work or give us a head start from their wider draws.
Betting Strategy ; 100 % Wins . Was hoping for $1.80 place to go each way , you might even get it closer to jump. Looks like one of those races that punters will back a few . For now I suggest just a medium win bet and no need to go yet .
Novelties ; * This Mornings scratching of n2 has made the novelties pretty hard to find value. 3 horse boxed tri’s are hard to get but better than wasting bigger amounts on skinny dividends.
1st ; 3 8 9
;2nd ; 3 8 9 $3 quinella / $6 exacta
3rd ; 3 8 9 $6trifecta
4th ; Field $36 First 4
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Best Bet Ascot r1 Hot Mix ; Won impressively on debut after solid trial. Maps to get same run in transit , sitting just off a hot speed. Warm n Fuzzy won a trial by 5 . I personally don’t like backing horses that run along in trials , they often race flat under race pressure and this is 1100m. Leaders Ascot very suitable however and if able to cross no surprise if he keeps going , $2.20 too short to find out. $9 for More Snitzel worth a small saver.
Ascot r7 Excellent Dream; Very fast albeit enigmatic gelding who ran 2nd to Trekking in a trial without blinkers. From barrier 2 it should lead or be right in the firing line and hard to run down. I could entertain having a very small nibble at $18 Mastering. The stable rarely miss with their interstate tried horses. It’s best form which has been missing for some time would be competitive.
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Best Bet Bunbury r8 Beret ; Horses out of Angelique’s Fame races just keep winning. She spanked us first up with a great turn of foot. 1400m suits even more and looks like she is going to rise through the grades this campaign. Pretty short at $1.95 currently but only bad luck or my odds on curse beats her!
Bunbury r7 Angelique’s Fame ; her favourite track and distance Sunday and is set to run another huge race. Her last 2 starts have seen her explode from the back and run into the placings in some serious last 600 sectionals. One day we will draw a decent barrier and settle closer but tomorrow the curse continues as we jump from 8/12 . Apprentice jockey Maddi Derrick has ridden her well in difficult circumstances and now knows what she has under her. With a bit of racing luck we are sure to be in the finish in a race that looks to have chances galore on paper. There are possible showers forecasted , if there was enough to downgrade the track and cut up the inside it would enhance her chances significantly.
Betting Strategy ; Last time the 20/80 win and place worked a charm and I suggest we go the same here. Current odds of $6 / $2,20 seem about right , anything over $2 the place looks acceptable.
Novelties
1st ; 2 3 7 9 10 $6 quinella
2nd ; 2 3 7 9 10 $20 exacta
3rd ; 2 3 4 6 7 9 10 11 $120 trifecta
4th ; 2 3 4 6 7 9 10 11 $600 first 4
*very tough novelties , flexi betting suggested!
Good Luck Ducks , lets hope Santa comes early to Bunbury tomorrow.
Bunbury Quaddie (r5-8); 3 5 6 7 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 , 2 3 7 9 10 , 4 $120 for 100%
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Best Bet Ascot r5 Tollman; Climbing up in the weights but every time he steps up in class and distance he handles it with aplomb. It’s impossible to see him not fighting out the finish from the perfect draw. Em Tee Eye is a bulldog out in front and in great form down in the weights. First try 1800 , won’t be easy for a 3yo holding off some talented older horses but track likely to assist his cause.
Ascot r3 Don’t Fuss ; Ascot has been a leaders paradise lately , especially in the early races. Don’t Fuss won’t lead and has a pretty ordinary Ascot record. However they could break the landspeed record early here with two speed freaks involved in Condor Heroes and Ziebell . Throw in Mia Dolce and the sparks will be flying. Hopefully Pike will just rail up from barrier 1 and check off heels and pounce. The 1.2 length 4th to Elite St looks a handy form reference for this !
Ascot r8 Midnight Blue; Has taken til this prep to start showing his true potential, not unusual for a traditional staying type. Is eligible for easier but is flying and gets the services of Pike. Has way more upside than most and looks most suited at 2200m out of the key hopes.
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Best Bet Geraldton r6 Kenyluck; This horse takes luck out of the occasion by jumping to the front and from there it’s catch me if you can. Mycroft is coming back from 1600m and Hot Style is yet to win in 5 previous first up attempts . Both are to be respected on their class.
Geraldton r1 Bentley Beau ; Should of won on debut at Bunbury. Trainer places her horses to perfection and the money usually comes in truckloads. Losing odds on pops is a tipsters worst nightmare however I’m willing to put it on the line here.
Geraldton r5 Pagani ; The form out of her two runs this prep stacks up well for this race.
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