Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r9 Billy Aint Silly ; Thursday Evenings $2.15 looked very juicy , unfortunately big punters thought the same and we are faced with $1.90. (tabtouch , shorter elsewhere). The blinkers have worked wonders with this 3yo and I’m confident of the hatrick tomorrow. Should cross outside likely leader Me N Taz who will get a stitch late over 1400m . Of the main chasers , Tinsnip has to carry 61kgs and Minnie Winnie will be a mile back or posted from the wide gate . This leaves Amelia’s Contraire as the only threat and I’m confident Billy can hold him at bay . Could save or play quinella as insurance.

Best Roughy Ascot r8 My Fury ; It’s debut 2nd was only in a Bunbury maiden but there was a lot to like. Slow away before hunting up on the rail , it was held up most of the straight before running into 2nd behind an odds on favourite who controlled it from the front. Will take a miracle from gate 15 however anything can happen in 2yo racing and don’t be surprised if it’s hitting the line hard. Most likely not tomorrow but a small spec each way just in case and put it in the blackbook for the future.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Albany r2 Awesome As ; Market has 3 virtually equal favourites. In a process of elimination I have sided with Awesome As . Read The Riot Act was 40 days between runs off a setback when jumping 700m in distance. Finished a long last. Back 400m but 5 starts at 1500m for 1 2nd and 3 runs on soft for duck eggs and today is a 7 (softest before heavy). Kia Ora Star prefers soft over good and has been racing against stronger opposition. Forget last start , 1800m is past his ideal distances. Start before was a dominant winner . Has to give Awesome As 7.5kgs which was the deciding factor in testing conditions. Dominant win this track and distance last start in easier grade .

Novelties

1st ; 1 5

2nd ; 1 5 7

3rd field

4th field

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Wednesday Winners

Best Roughy Ascot r4 Femme Pussaint ; Has a short, sharp turn of foot but also has the worst barrier manners in history. From barrier 1 he could give some cheek if he miraculously jumped and held a position. One of those horses your reluctant to give up on just in case. Very small each way investment.

Best Value Ascot r6 Rock N Ruler ; Was hoping the track was deeper in the soft range but the cut out will at least help. Drawn to get a lovely run most likely tagging scoreline and be thereabouts at the finish. Thought Come Right Back was grossly unders despite being the best horse in the race . Yet to win 2nd up and rises to 61kgs. Can definitely win but prefer to back our pick at $14/$3.20 on a 20/80 % basis.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Stellar Vista ; Promising 3yo filly who won her maiden on debut then thrown in the deep end when running on behind a talented 3yo . Back against the older horses , none of which are world beaters she should be too good. As far as prices go however she is currently too short from barrier 10 at $1.75. If you can boost to even money or she drifts slightly then all aboard. If not then maybe a multi banker or standout in the quaddie and novelties.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Smoker ; Should of won first up this track and distance however was slow out and just failed to make up the ground. He is drawn the right side and with a better jump will be awfully hard to beat. Has placed on soft.

WEATHER UPDATE ; While the track is officially listed as soft 6 it hasn’t stopped raining all morning and is unlikely to do so all day. Expect it to be downgraded quickly as soon as they start racing on it and it opens up. Fingers crossed they get through the meeting but I’m definitely suggesting a watch on conditions. Being the first of two straight races on the day I would be shocked if the outside fence wasn’t the place to be hence the draw really helps as long as he jumps cleanly.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r5 That’s Funny Az ; Funny drift last start when it opened fav then jumped at 7s but was never going to lose as a Lucky Duck Best Bet . With the blinkers going on I can see Cockney Crew kicking up then going too hard. Hoping Derrick sits just off him and proves strongest late. The weight advantage after the claim looks very handy.

Ascot r6 Some Sort ; Will be fitter for the first up run when only run down late. Should bounce to the lead on a day expected to suit on pace runners and prove very hard to run down.

Ascot r9 Creator ; Although it’s 1400m stats say 4 unplaced runs , they were in much stronger races in the east and wasn’t beaten far. His two runs in WA indicate it should suit and he should get every chance somewhere up in the firing line throughout.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Albany r7 Push to Pass ; Got to far back in the Esperance Cup but hit the line hard off a slow tempo. Is 1 /1 at the track and distance . The favourite Marocchino looks awfully hard to run down but I’m suggesting 20/80 % each way bet at $9/$2.50 is a better bet than 100% wins on the $2.10 favourite .

Albany Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1 2 4 5 6 7 9 11 , field , 3 4 , 7. $176 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r6 Pletto ; Is often luckless as sits off them and comes with a late burst. Last 3 runs have resulted in two run on placings , the 2nd one a tragedy beaten and a win . From barrier two I’m banking on her settling closer and being too strong late. At $2.40 we are paying Pike Tax but with a tricky ride like her it’s worth it.

Best Value Ascot r8 Spin The Knife; Won at $41 on debut when crossing outside the leader from a wide gate and refusing to lie down over 1100m. Got a mile back from another wide gate three weeks between runs and made up a stack of ground late over 1000m. From the middle draw I can see him pushing forward and will be strong at the end of 1200m. Great Each Way bet in a wide edition of the Karrakatta Plate.

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Friday Fill Up

Best Roughie Ascot r6 Femme Pussaint ; Erratic galloper that does a lot wrong hence the unflattering record. If it jumps and holds a position it actually has a little sharp turn of foot that can be dangerous in a race of this nature. No confidence whatsoever in it’s manners so just having a very small each way investment.

Best Value Ascot r9 Me N Taz ; One trick pony that jumps to the front and tries to pinch it. Has managed to do it last two starts in easier company. This is harder but finds the front and never gives up without a fight. Has firmed from $11 - $9.50 this morning. Each way .

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Bunbury r1 Ripon Falls; Had done absolutely nothing at first four starts. 2nd up this track and distance it ran a close 2nd despite still racing greenly. Bred to stay all day so it’s not uncommon for these types to improve dramatically after a few runs over ground. Another weak stayers maiden , he gets his chance. Mine Detector and The Slug have stronger form but are jumping 500m in trip , complete guesswork if they get it or not.

Bunbury r2 Oceanic Rider; Debuted with a top 2nd against the older horses which is rare for 2yo’s this time of year. Backed it up by being beaten 1.1 lengths in the Perth Stakes contested by leading hopes in Saturday’s Karrakatta Plate.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r6 Downforce; Has very strong form going into this, the only question is why the 35 days between runs? Notorious One’s trial indicated he is good enough but still does a lot wrong . Tinsnip is flying but has a big weight to overcome in a harder race. The rest are coming from easier races . Can only presume he wouldn’t be here if he wasn’t ready to go so making him an each way special.

Bendigo r5 Need New Friends ; Using the WA reference to offer a rare interstate tip. The obvious danger is the WA based Chantrea from the Lindsey Smith yard. Splitting Chaillot and Shout the Bar is stronger form than Chantrea’s last campaign. We also get the services of champion Bunbury boy Damien Lane in the saddle.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Pinjarra r5 Bossnip ; It’s one win was down the middle of the Pinjarra straight 1000m , beating Spicy Dancer by 2.3 lengths. Savage One beat Spicy Dancer by 2.3 lengths when finding the outside fence first . Bosnipp has drawn the middle of the 8 horse field whereas Savage One and the other Durrant speedster Drinkwhatyoulike have drawn inside her. Not much between them but with the draw advantage I don’t believe Bossnip should be $3.90 vs Savage One $2.30.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r7 Koranis ; Was only caught on the line last week when leading and kicking for home on the corner. The winner was very impressive , it beat the rest easily. The same tactics likely to be adopted today from barrier 1 with the light weight. Only won 2/21 with 1 minor placing so we can’t get too carried away however with a 40/60 split of stake I am confident of a solid run for our money.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Value Bunbury r7 Porphyrio ; Racing a long way out of her class but her first attempt at a trip was enormous. It was a day swooping out wide was virtually impossible however she flashed home from last into 3rd behind a talented filly who had a perfect run on the rail. At $26 i would much rather a spec each way than diving into Montelena. She went down as a $1.50 fav in the cup on the same day. She was under pressure a long way out and battled into 2nd. Does she stay? Paddy’s Shadow goes right up in the weights for winning the cup.

Best Bet Bunbury r8 Standout Rose ; Promising filly with solid form around other quality 3yo’s. The opposition have mostly found their mark. Sweet Angeline is impossible to line up, the market hasn’t come for her yet. Yadreamin would go close at her best , is she past her best?

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r5 That’s Funny Az; Should control this from the front and in current form prove extremely hard to run down.

Mornington r7 Mount Popa ; Think the Wizard from the west in Willy Pike can land the Mornington Cup on this highly talented import and earn connections a ticket into the Caulfield Cup in the spring. That’s why they are here and not in the Sydney carnival where he would more than hold his own in much tougher races.

Mornington r8 Ancestry ; This horse is a money printing machine when he leads on his terms. Mornington is a leaders paradise and he is drawn 1. I honestly think this is a bet of a lifetime scenario except for 1 factor. Most punters have their favourite jockeys to back and their favourite to pot. I personally can’t stand Luke Nolen as a jockey . Surely with a ride like this he can just lead and let him do his thing out in front but history says when I’m on his rides something extraordinarily disastrous happens! I am personally already on for plenty but always only gamble with what you can afford to ,lose as their is no such thing as a good thing in racing.

Thursday Tips

Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Blue Skates ; 3yo filly on debut who has shown speed in both her trials this time in and run right through the line to pull away late. The latest one was down the Pinjarra straight so should handle the conditions no problems.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r3 No Apology ; Dropping in class and gets a claim for a talented apprentice. Only won 2/18 but this is not strong and should settle behind the speed and get every chance from barrier 2.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Mount Barker r7 Classic Jack ; Granted it’s a rapid step up in class for a $2.50 favourite however it simply gets too good a run not to tip. Will be tucked in right on top of the speed set by Corporate Larrikin and Deel Red. One will tire late and I prefer red when he gets his own way in front. Mr Pago has the senior rider back on and looks the value in the race. With Chris Parnham coming down for the ride and Roy Rogers dominating the great southern season , I’m willing to pay the tax on the odds . 100% wins with a 10/90 % small saver on Mr Pago.

R7 Novelties

1st ; 2 6 ,

2nd ; 2 5 6 ,

3rd ; 1 2 4 5 6 8

4th ; field

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r6 Miss Marietta ; Last two starts over the mile have resulted in a 2nd in this grade followed by an effortless win in a c5 back at the midweeks. The trainer is in form , so is the jockey and most importantly so is the mare.

Ascot Quaddie (r6-9) ; 7 , 1 , 2 4 5 6 10 , 1 2 11. $15 for 100%

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Bunbury r6 Kia Ora Star ; This is the easiest race he has contested for some time. Has finished close up last couple in much stronger . While he doesn’t win out of turn nor do the others engaged here. 40/60 % split of your stake recommended.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r4 Nobel Laurence ; First up ran on into 2nd behind all the way winner Hot Zed who is airborne . Won 2nd up last time in over this distance. I have finally sacked Mystery Man, that usually means they win !

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