Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r3 Ultimate Command ; While 2yo form is not as foolproof as established horses , it’s last 2 2nds to a smart stablemate has it clearly on top . The low draw only enhances it’s chances.

Best Value Belmont r7 Written Matter ; Undefeated in 2 , this beast of a 3yo is trying to jump from a c1 to a listed feature race against seasoned opposition. While it is a hard ask , it looks like a very professional racehorse with a serious tank. Led all the way on debut then put them away out wide 2nd up. Has been openly disclosed that it will be ridden cold and try and storm past them from the outside barrier. If it can get the right tow in it will take some holding out. Each Way at double figures .

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Thursday Tips

Carnarvon r5 Casual Trade ; Apprentice Jett Stanley has started his career with a bang. To get 4kgs off in a region such as Carnarvon is a huge advantage . Brings his weight down to 52kgs and he is going for the hatrick at the track and distance. Being an EX Lucky Duck , I will have to save on Starthefriar. $7 is a good price for a horse with his rating here. The negative is he is a very quirky horse to ride so with a young apprentice on first time it won’t be easy for her. Madrid Centro has won 4/5 here and come near enough to last everywhere else. Some of his winning margins when he first arrived last season were mind boggling. Base your novelties around these 3.

Best Bet Carnarvon r6 Shivers of Joy ; It’s 2 wins from 35 starts has come at this track , 1 at this distance. Last start he made a mess of them first up. While the favourite Mordor is a worthy opponent I can’t give up $3.70 with 53.5kgs vs $2.05 with 61.5kgs.

Carnarvon Quaddie (r3-6) :

Field , Field , 9 , 10 $110 for 100%

Field , Field , 6 , 10 $55 for 50%

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r1 Schuhplatter ; Won softly first up down the Pinjarra straight. It’s hard to line the straight form up with anything else but with natural improvement, this Snitzel 4yo mare is in the right stable to trust she can go through the grades. Playing Red is coming from harder races but is far less effective on good going. Also mixes her form so hard to trust. Enticing’s last two runs were good enough to win this , 1 win , 0 placings from 8 starts means he also hasn’t earnt my trust yet.

Best Value Belmont r5 San Crispino ; Her track and distance stats are nothing flash (6; 0 1 0 ) however she has gone from a non winner to a horse that gives everything with maturity. From the soft draw and with no weight on her back , expect her to settle right behind a genuine tempo and be there when the whips are cracking. Opened double figures , currently $9 ($1.80 tote) so plenty of others like her early on an each way basis.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Solarize; All 3 wins have been at 1200m , draws low and has king of Kal Mitch Pateman to ride.

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Weekend Winners

Play of the Day; Belmont r8 Massimo & Dance Music ; Two bet strategy for the feature sprint. Massimo was completely luckless in the Roma Cup . Settled midfield the fence and is still looking for a way out. Was such a non event that gun trainer Adam Durrant trialed him on the Monday where he went brilliantly. Trainer Simon Miller was not afraid to tell punters Dance Music was the pick of his multiple runners in the Roma , even at the unsuitable distance of 1200m. He wasn’t wrong with the classy Mare running 0.1 length 3rd. He also stated she was in for a big prep and she is much better suited as the distances get slightly longer. Both horses have great wet track stats and both are each way prices. It’s a great betting race where nothing would shock , I suggest backing both on a 20/80% basis.

Eagle Farm r7 Explosive Jack; This tough as nails 3yo has already won the Tasmanian , Sydney and South Australian derbies. The Sydney derby was naturally stronger than this Queensland event and he made a mess of them in SA. While how much is too much for a young horse is the question on everyone’s lips, I am certain he is going as well as ever or why would such an astute trainer risk him with the future in mind.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet York r8 Friar the Gun; Scratched yesterday from a winnable race in preference for this. Remarkably it’s currently paying better in what looks like an easier race. Will push forward from a widish gate and hopefully slot in off what looks a likely strong tempo. All the other chances in the market are coming from stronger races but none of them win out of turn. Being lightly raced she has the most upside if she can progress in an upward spiral. Confidence is high on this one on a 40/60 % stake to cover risk with place.

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Wednesday Winners

Pinjarra r6 Blow me Out ; It’s 2 career wins to date were first up over 1200m , 1 here at Pinjarra. Was heavily supported on both those occasions and won impressively. Use the market as a guide closer to jump.

Best Bet Pinjarra r7 New Amsterdam ; Has come back to racing in top order , winning 2/2. Can lead or take a sit and the way it finished off last start suggests the 1500m 3rd up will be no issue. Always tricky when up against a favourite from the same stable , but I’m convinced the race conditions suit our pick better.

Pinjarra r8 Friar the Gun ; Only won an Albany maiden last start but sat outside a horse that had provincial form and got past it comfortably enough. That said horse then returned to Albany and won it’s maiden easily Sunday. Has upside , gets the right run and trainer jockey combination very much in form.

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Sunday Prayers

Albany r1 Inahappydaze; All the form points to odds on favourite Garage Days being extremely hard to beat , including beating home our selection 2 starts ago. I’m banking on the speed map and booking of Chris Parnham to turn the tables. The favourite is likely to be giving us a big head start from the bad barrier.

Best Bet Albany r7 Soviet Spy ; Destroyed maiden company this track and trip first up , then ran a slashing 2nd from well back in a stronger race over 1600m on soft ground. Bred to stay all day so back to 1500m is the query. Hoping can settle a touch closer from the good barrier and prove too classy.

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Weekend Winners

Best Roughy Ascot r3 STARTTHEFRIAR ; Mixed emotions with the ex duck finding a new lease of life up North , so much so they have brought him to town for a throw at the stumps. 1400m and 54.5kgs a big tick. Negatives his Ascot record (8 starts , all unplaced) and the obvious rise in class. His usual pattern is to drop out and sustain a long run out wide . Not a massive field to get past and for sentimental reasons I’m going to have a very small piece of the $61 / $7,50 available. Understand why he’s an outsider but his current form is just as strong as half the field’s who are half the price.

Best Bet Ascot r9 Nerodio ; Very consistent sprinter who looks primed 3rd up to stalk the speed and run over the top . Has run into the flying Miss Conteki first two starts back. Charlton Eddie will take some catching , I actually like that for Nerodio as he seems a horse that likes to chase horses down late. Good test for Apprentice Laqdar Romoly to time it right.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r5 Tri For Us; Fields of five can be tricky , tactical affairs but this one looks pretty straight forward. Look for War Warrior to cross and the fav to sit just off him. If she handles the 7 day back up then I expect her to reel him in then hold Perfect Gem at bay.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r7 Marocchino ; Here is a horse that has grown 3 legs once Pike has jumped on , nothing new for a lot of horses. Beat most of these with 55kgs over 1800 when given every mortal hope by Pike. Now rises to 57kgs , 2150m , draws awkward and loses Pike. However Chris Parnham is a very suitable replacement and although the two group 1 winners meet him better off , 62kgs on a soft 7 is still a big task.

Best Value Gold Coast r8 Fifty Stars; Pike very rarely comes home empty handed when he travels to carnivals and this looks a plumb ride . Unbeaten on heavy tracks and it’s been a while since he’s seen genuine wet ground. The horse is airborne without getting any luck or races run to suit. Wet 1800m with room to truck into it looks ideal. $8 is a good each way bet.

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Thursday Tips

Pinjarra r4 Garage Days ; Huge run first up behind a very promising stablemate who franked the form effortlessly in higher grade yesterday. Soft 6 (thought it would be worse) is the query. Will also get a fair way back from the barrier , a swooping down the outside track pattern would be ideal , on pace detrimental.

Pinjarra r7 Tradem In ; Another one who’s form was franked yesterday , this time by a horse that beat us home yesterday in New Amsterdam. Just failed to catch him last time and that is the strongest form reference. 60kgs the query this time , giving wait to Soviet Spy and Strawberry Mist. Both have ability.

* No Best Bet confidence wise as unsure on how the track will play and been a lean couple of days. Watch earlier races and make sure you can make ground before investing and I suggest small stakes.

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Wednesday Winners

Ascot r2 Son Son ; Concede he was gifted the lead first up but he put them away and it was a decent field. More pressure on paper here but he doesn’t have to lead , handles soft and drops 1/2 kg after claim.

Ascot r3 Prize Pursuit; Not a tip just an update on our champ Huey. The first up run has done him the world of good and his work since has been spot on. He rolls forward from the gate and either leads or sits outside New Amsterdam . If it was a good 4 I wouldn’t hesitate to have a bet. The market has it a race in 3 and the other 2 , Empire Reign and New Amsterdam have placed on soft. We wont know until we try and being a duck he should swim but It’s a watch and cheer race for mine.

Best Bet Ascot r6 Blackwater Bay ; Resumed at 1800m and condition gave out just before the finishing post. Fitter this time and although 1 unplaced effort on soft , full brother to a group 1 winner on a heavy ten.

Ascot r7 Chasing Chaos; Beat many of these home last start and should get similar run. The extra 100m a concern as he has yet to win at 1600 in 20 attempts. Having said that , I think he would of still ran 2nd last start had it been 1600m and handles soft. Each way in a wide open race.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Northam r3 Crossed Swords ; Was resuming off a long spell when did plenty of work in a fast run race and battled on strongly over 1500m. This is no harder and drawn to get a more economical run , maybe even take it up. Northam is a great on pace track usually.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r2 Ruthless Tycoon; Unbeaten at trials and scratched from Wednesday to debut here. Looks a powerful sprinter drawn to race on pace and there has already been strong market support.

Ascot r3 Home in Five ; Very keen to take on the favourite Billy Ray at $2.60. It’s a maiden who was unlucky not to win in Midweek grade first up but has gone under at long odds on in the past. Decided on Home in Five as he’s won 3/5 in impressive fashion and at $5 looks better value. Trainer Michael Lane has always had a high opinion of the horse. 2/2 on soft if the track remains wet.

Ascot r4 Treat Yo Self ; Come back really well this time in. Did all the work first up and only grabbed late. 2nd up controlled it from the front and bolted in. Technically up in grade but there are no stars in it and she is progressing the right way.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Image Keeper ; A horse that has won 3/4 and is still improving with racing finds himself as favourite in a 100k Westpeed Platinum final. Great placement from the trainer , none of the others here boast anything near that strike rate / potential. Only has to handle the 59kgs to win.

Ascot r9 Minnie Winnie ; Enormous effort to nearly knock off a smart 3yo last start . Dominant win at Bunbury start prior. A mare in form who gets her chance to notch up a city win.

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Monday Money Makers

Best Bet Albany r6 Loki ; Did work to find lead but still proved too strong last start. There are lots of chances in this but they are mostly back markers. Unless there is a change of tactics , Loki should find the front again with less pressure and take some running down.

Albany r8 Wednesday ; A c1 mare fighting out of her weight division but her recent form is in stronger metro midweeks. She is likely to get back so any on pace bias would be a concern. By race 8 we will know.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Pinjarra r6 On Red Alert ; 3 wins and 4 placings from 12 starts is a pretty solid record. I’m suggesting it would be even better but for waywardness. Although he only dead heated at Narrogin first up it was under a very inexperienced apprentice who experienced difficulties in the run. Gets 1.5kg off today for WA’s leading apprentice. If he goes straight , he has them covered.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot 7 Creator ; Concede it got every chance last time but it held a similar field comfortably and maps to get a similar run .

Best Bet Ascot r9 Tinsnip; Found him when he broke a long drought 2nd up and his efforts since have been good in unsuitable conditions. Drops from 61kgs to 58kgs and gains the services of Pike. I try and avoid #pikeinthelast runners due to the effect on price but $2.80 is fair enough …. just.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r9 Worth A Risk; Races best when kept fresh and last time she was at the races she absolutely spanked them off a similar break between runs. Plenty of speed engaged , on paper at least which means jockey can park right behind them and get every possible chance.

Ascot r8 Prize Pursuit ;

SELECTIONS

3. Mercanto 4. Prize Pursuit 6. Contessa Medici. 1. Beau Zoom.

Betting Strategy ; 100% Place @$1.81 (bet365) . As previously stated he’s a definite winning chance but comes up against another promising 3yo with a run under his belt and a better barrier.

Novelties

1st ; 3 4

2nd ; 3 4 (6) *include 6 for 2nd and 3 & 4 for 3rd if you want an extra chance.

3rd ; 1 2 5 6 7 9 $12 Trifecta

4th ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 $60 first4

GOOD LUCK CONNECTIONS AND SUPPORTERS AND HUEY!

Sunday Prayers

Best Value Geraldton r6 Starthefriar ; Ex Duck who has found a new lease on life since moving north. To see him run 2nd by a nose over 1200m first up no trial really does indicate he is flying. 1400m is his perfect trip. The one negative is the weight. Prefer him up in class , down in weight . Rises 6kg on first up run but the claim for a jockey who gets the best out of him means he is still relatively well placed. At $9.50 / $3.10 a 25/75% each way bet looks the go.

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