Best Bet York r3 Nutwood ; Caught wide throughout first up but didn’t shirk the task , running a brave 4th beaten 3 lengths behind Arcadia Grace. That filly could be a major player in the summer carnival . Blinkers on indicate a positive ride on pace which suits York.
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Come Magic ; At first glance, $2.40 for a four start maiden in a Saturday 1mw 60+ isn’t too attractive. Let me try and justify it. Went down fighting to Wilchino first up , that mare would be long odds on to win here. Drawn 2 with Pike on she lands in front and from there either controls it or takes a sit on Type Won. Goes extremely close in either situation.
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Best Value Northam r7 Oceanzara ; Only 1 win from 14 but 6 minors indicate a mare who always tries hard just lacks a killer punch. 4kg claim and does no work from barrier 1 to help run out the mile . No General Grant in this c1 and the each way price available is all honestly factoring in the inexperienced 4kg apprentice. The favourite ran 11th in the same General Grant race where Oceanzara finished 0.4 length 3rd and is $3 win . At that disparity we have to back the young fella in.
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Best Bet Belmont r2 Rain God ; Trial leading in really caught my eye. Weaved through from last under no pressure and let down nicely. Started at $1.60 on debut and justified it. At only other start finished 3rd in a small field behind the smart Panzdown then put away to mature. Drawn to get a great run tomorrow .
Belmont r5 Jarman ; Heavily supported first up and was good just beaten by the wide barrier. Next start drew wide again and jockey took her chances on the inside but the run never came. Middle draw this time and dry ground indicate he’s a solid each way chance.
Belmont r6 Agent Kensington ; I don’t have much between the 3 at the top of the weights and the market agrees. Barrier 1 was absolute gold on the weekend and on a good 4 I can’t see it being a disadvantage again. Box seats and fights out the finish.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r2 City Invasion ; In a modest maiden full of team Fernie runners it makes sense to side with the one Pike is on from the perfect stalking draw. American Grin will give him a decent head start and The Slug is well named , suited to the drop in grade but very one paced and likely to need further.
Best Value Kalgoorlie r6 All In Red ; Her wins last prep on dry tracks in Geraldton were dynamic. This time in she has struck very wet tracks and hasn’t gone a yard on them. At $16 I’m prepared to have an each way investment to see if she’s purely a dry tracker. No idea on reason for stable change . She is actually a half sister to Lucky Duck Prize Pursuit and joins ex Lucky Duck Startthefriar . Both get in very light after the use of the claims. The old boy loves Kalgoorlie but is not an easy horse to ride and jockey booked is very inexperienced.
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Belmont r3 Sassy Trader ; Providing the track dries out to a soft 5 or better he should lead , control it and defy running down.
Belmont r5 Campese ; Not suited by the inside draw last start , getting restricted room and running out of time. Out to 1400m and Chris Parnham jumps back on.
Best Bet Belmont r6 La Farola ; Very progressive 4yo mare who went enormous first up. Took a very talented horse to run her down . Take winner out and she bolts in , no horses of that caliber here . Hopefully a race to race double to Parnham on the Lane Train runners.
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Northam r6 Celebrity Witness ; Is going really well this campaign. Won it’s maiden this track and distance and I feel it can give the favourite something to run down at the better odds. Sparkling Jewel is obviously talented and produced a big finish to win her maiden on debut. We have mentioned before the difficulty in going from a maiden to a c1 and this is a c3. Can definitely win but shouldn’t be odds on. Small bet on our selection instead.
Best Bet Northam r8 Winnie’s Wine (Place) ; Is going much better since dropping back to the sprint trips. Although stepping up to a c3 it stays on the minimum and 1100 suits better than the 1000m. 1 win from 29 suggests we best stick mainly to the place . Jarman goes close with a repeat of first up run. Like most of these mixes his form and not sure about drop in distance.
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Belmont r2 Rulelee ; Has had 2 starts over the 1000m and both times it has come from miles back to finish off hard. Extra 200m looks ideal . Nitro Fred was equally impressive on debut but was used early to lead and gave a good kick to only just get run down. If it jumps better and gets it softer then it will be hard to run down . Early money has been for the newcomer Red Fifty Three . Was a nice trial but drawn to do some work if it wants to race forward hence I’m going with the swooper at the better odds of the three.
Best Bet Belmont r4 Smashing; While she’s no star , I keep coming back to our carnival last year where she was only beaten 4.5 lengths in the Guineas and 2.7 in the Lee Steere. Last start wasn’t a hot field by any stretch however she got lost then flew home to score. The 2nd horse has since won.
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Blazing Billy ; Won his first up run to make it 3/6 when running down Strathmore Rose on a heavy 10. That horse then won in this grade next start. Extra fitness , just as effective on dry ground , Pike and barrier 1 look to be a winning combination.
Belmont r9 Captain Kaos ; Has a 50% winning strike rate and is rapidly rising through the grades. Has a sharp turn of foot and his 1200m record is impeccable.
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Best Bet Northam r6 Lonehand Larry ; Close up finishes behind horses in graduation company just has to be the right form here, especially last start. Back on top of the ground should suit . Looks very hard to beat.
Northam r7 Starlift ; Pretty much backing the fact that Pike will give it every possible chance from the good barrier. Castillo Del Lago most likely has lengths on these ability wise , but will have to do some work in the run first up for a young jockey still finding her feet. For this reason only I’m backing “Pikeinthelast”.
Northam Quaddie (r4-7) ; 11 , field , 2 , 1 2 5 8 . $40 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r7 Campese ; Stable brought him over from Victoria with a big opinion on him. Horror start with him pulling up sore first up as a heavily backed favourite. 2nd up he showed he had recovered with a barnstorming 2nd alongside Kaptain Kaos who boasts a 50% winning strike rate. Will be storming home over the top again providing he see’s daylight. * Trainer’s opinion is he is a better horse on top of the ground. Current rating of soft 5 is fine , if it deteriorates past a 6 closer to the heavy range then I would not be betting.
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Pinjarra r8 Angelique’s Fame ; At the current odds $8 / $3 (bet365) I’m happy to play on a 10/90 % basis . ie $1 win and $9 place for every $10 spent. While she hasn’t won for a while she also hasn’t been beaten far. Will be disappointed if she doesn’t go very close to placing in this line up.
Novelties 1st & 2nd ; 1 4 ($1 Quinella $2 Exacta)
3rd & 4th ; 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 ($16 trifecta $112 first 4 )
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Belmont r2 Treasured Crown; Is 2/2 in clashes with Zaratite yet still opens 2nd favourite vs odds on. Granted Zaratite was unlucky the first clash but Treasured Crown took a sit in a sprint home. Next clash the jockey turned it into a true staying test and he clearly had his measure. Vital CJP uses these tactics again, then we are a huge chance. As close to a good thing quinella you will ever see.
Best Bet Belmont r4 Nobel Laurance ; Always rated this horse and last start was his best win. Aided by a rails hugging gem of a ride , he beat home Reign of Fire who franked the form with an effortless victory next start. Should be ready for a peak performance 3rd up, the only question is price. $1.95 is rock bottom , most likely includes “Pike tax”.
Belmont r6 Lonsdale Lady ; Has a superb wet track record and has run well in much better races than this. Beat Zaratite who was long odds on a month ago. That’s the burning question , why so long between runs when the tracks have been super wet . If she’s 100% she’s a great bet. Will have to rely on the market as an indication.
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Ghobella; Faces very similar conditions (wet ) to last start where she was heavily backed and never looked like losing. Carries the same weight after 3kg claim . Strawberry Mist is a nice horse and will be fitter for the rematch. Wouldn’t think she could make up nearly 5 lengths though .
Belmont r6 Darcele ; Could almost just copy and paste the reasoning behind the tip above. Raced on the same day but this time only got run down late by the favourite , beating everything else convincingly. The dangers according to the betting again come from the same race so in the same conditions she must be the one to beat. These stayers do mix their form more than others though so a little more cautious.
Belmont r9 Angelique’s Fame ; Not a tip but a rundown on our own runner’s chances. Raced on the same day as the two tips above. 2nd up after a big first up run in testing conditions with 59kg’s all proved a bit too much but as usual she fought it out and wasn’t beaten far. Hopefully the track plays fairer or aids backmarkers tomorrow as doing no work early and rushing home late seems to be her go. She drops to 55kgs to go up to c5 company , same as when she ran a nose 2nd first up. As far as a tip goes I can’t split the three favs in Ohbeeh , Jag the Joker and Snippy Miss. Obh will look to cross from the wide gate and the other two slot in right behind him. These 3 dominate the market then it’s dbl figures the rest. Our current price of $14/$3.70 is about right , she will need luck due to her racing pattern but if conditions enable horses to run on she won’t be far away.
Box Trifecta 1 7 8 9 ; Hopefully our girl adds some value into the trifecta. You could literally pick any runner to put in with the three favs so obviously we will throw her in.
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Belmont r3 Wilcino ; Forget first up run when blew out in the market and pulled up with issues. Despite that run she was hammered as soon as markets opened 2nd up and bounced back to her brilliant best. Her best runs have been on good tracks where she has smashed the clock so drier ground should assist a peak performance. Best winning chance of day but not much value in the $2 on offer.
Best Bet Belmont r4 Vital Flirt ; Unlike previous race this one has a clear advantage on really wet tracks. If the rain doesn’t arrive on time she has still won 3 races on good and it won’t be rock hard by any stretch. Has gone from a Northam c1 winner at $34 to Saturday winner this prep when one of the favourites , such has been her improvement. The whole field has some hope but $5 for a mare in her form is a good bet.
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Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Decoy Belle; Won her maiden with authority this track and distance last start as a Lucky Duck best bet. History says that beating horses who have won 1 race is definitively harder than horses who haven’t. This makes the current $3.30 (hammered in from $4.20 opening and now slowly getting out again) pretty skinny. She is drawn to get the run of the race and should have natural improvement left so seeing as finding winners has been like finding hen’s teeth the last few weeks we are going to go again.
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Best Bet Belmont r7 Miss Vasari ; Demolished a very moderate midweek field first up on heavy. This is much harder but can only be fitter and small field means her turn of foot will be very dangerous no matter how the track plays. No value in current price but it’s a pretty ordinary days racing and this is the horse I’m most confident can win.
Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1 7 , 7 ,field , 1 7 . $40 for 100%
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r1 Kelly’s Hero ; Luckless at Kal debut when couldn’t get a run . 1400m should suit and Chris Parnham takes the ride in search of the Australian Jockeys Premiership.
Kalgoorlie r4 Star Present ; Ex Hong Kong galloper which is very rare for a mare and obviously she appreciated the change of environment as she won her maiden easily despite racing greenly. Thre is more depth to this field but natural improvement makes her hard to beat.
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Best Bet Belmont r4 Treasured Crown ; Appreciated the step up to a staying trip first time this prep when put into the race a long way out and smashing them in the heavy conditions. Rock hard fit and facing another wet track , I’ll lean his way over the favourite Zaratite. He is 3rd up from a long spell and stepping up from 1650m. Both Peters Investments horses , Williams vs Durrant , Pike vs Parnham , sets up an intriguing clash. Hopefully Parnham turns it into another real staying test and the race fitness wins out.
Best Value Belmont r7 Spookwood ; Don’t ask me where this 6yo’s form has come from but it’s last 3 starts for 2 wins and a second have been full of merit. Scratchings have dented the value tag somewhat for this tougher assignment however from the draw a repeat of it’s recent runs has him fighting out the finish. Each way bet over the deserved favourite Notorious One. If his manners ever get sorted he could even have a big race victory in him , very hard to beat but also hard to ride and hard to invest money on.
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Pinjarra r4 Wise Cracker ; Good thing beaten last start when having our best bet tag (sigh) . Held up most of the straight before being swamped by a roughie who had all the momentum in clear air down the outside. Needs to win 1 sooner rather than later but has placed 6/7 and we butter up again.
Pinjarra r5 Wings Away ; Was a month between runs last start when in the fight but failed to land the knockout punch. Two prior placings were good form references for this. From the draw should get a soft run and be fighting it out again.
Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Decoy Belle ; Was first up over 1500m on heavy when he put in a huge performance to come 3rd in a hot form race despite working wide throughout. The winner bolted in yesterday and runner up won a weak maiden ears pricked last week.
Pinjarra Quaddie (r5-8) ; 5 , 3 10 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 , 1 6 8 $48 for 100%
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