Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Vevinsky ; Last start 3rd was behind Playz With Fire (Yesterday’s best bet that bolted in. That was the first time it has showed anything in five starts however the failures were as a 2yo so perhaps it has improved with maturity. This is a weak maiden and Pike jumps on.

Pinjarra r 5 Bell Lap ; Going against my usual rule of backing a last start maiden winner however the form out of the maidens looks stronger than most of rivals. If it finds the front easy enough it can go back to back at the same track and distance.

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Belmont Bangers

Best Value Belmont r3 Nobelium ; Won a trial in quick time before running a credible race first up against better opposition . No good thing but $10 / $2.30 (Tabtouch) is a juicy enough price to play on a 25/75 % basis.

Best Bet Belmont r6 Playz With Fire ( $2.10 bet365) ; Benefited from the run on debut to beat a handy maiden in Reliable Choice 2nd up with a sharp turn of foot. That horse then jumped at $1.40 and won effortlessly. Don’t usually back maiden winners at their next start but the strength of the form and the odds available on bet365 compared to odds on everywhere else swayed me to have a crack.

Belmont r7 Cable Guy (Place) ; In career best form and trying his guts out up on pace. The form from some of the efforts isn’t dynamite but you know he is going to be up there and fighting right to the line. Around $3.50 the place at maybe 10/90 % ratio just in case he pinches it.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Albany r6 Cockyjoy ; Technically up in class but it doesn’t look that harder , especially factoring in the drop in weight. Initially concerned with the drop back to 1100m , it looks a concern for most of the main fancies so happy to play .

Thursday Tips

Best Multi : Pinjarra r2 Reliable Choice Win ; Pikes first ride back from suspension is on a Peter’s Investments odds on favourite. In fact his first two are but I think this one is the most reliable choice! Considering the current 2nd favourite Madam Wu ran a seven length 10th in the same race she ran 3/4 length 2nd in on debut , with natural improvement and an extra 100m she should be winning.

Pinjarra r7 Prize Pursuit (Place) ; The Scratching of Yuna Mailman has changed this race on it’s head. Now it’s up to Blazing Warrior to decide how much company Wuhan Warrior has in the lead. It’s a lot softer tempo regardless. Prize Pursuit still gets the ideal drop on them but now they get a better chance to run it out strongly. Should be a great three way tussle with Trade War needing luck from the barrier but dangerous if he gets it.

Current Multi Price is $2.40 ( $1.85 & $1.30)

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r1 Story Book (Place) ; Hard to line up Pinjarra 1000m form but she also ran a good 2nd to Rockin Rupert mid November. Most likely gets back to last but with only seven in it I’m happy to go 10/90 % each way despite it being pay 1 & 2 only . The favourite OH SOPHIA won her maiden same day, track and distance in near identical time. Hardest to beat hence why $2.35 place vs $2.30 win looks a good bet.

Ascot r7 Pure Devotion ; Blinkers on and the 4kg weight swing against Black Shadow make me lean her way in the final major lead up to the Perth Cup. Add the teams ability to peak at the right time and she should be fighting out the finish. Huge respect to Paddy’s Shadow and Stafford’s Lad .

r7 Novelties 1st - 2nd ; 2 7 8 ($3 Quinella $6 Exacta )

3rd ; 1 2 7 8 9 10 ($24 Trifecta)

4th ; field ( $168 first 4)

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Geraldton r3 Admiral Husson ; Strike rate of only 2 wins from 36 is usually a concern but last start it took Three Sessions the whole straight to get past it. That horse started deep in the red and has a big boom on it. 3rd up today, only has to repeat last effort to hold these off for a well deserved victory.

Geraldton r6 Sans Le Sou ; Last two starts indicate she is a mare in peak form. Unlucky close 2nd over 1400m then bolting in over 1600m. Drops a kilo and draws to get a great run. Not concerned with the drop back to 1400m.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r1 Vonsnip ; The Harrison stable is one of the big early 2yo stables in the state and out of multiple entries for Wednesday’s race , this was the one that was reserved for this harder assignment. Coming off an all the way trial win in quick time where it had pressure applied from another runner before giving a good kick . 3rd in that trial won Wednesday’s race. Obviously if Revitup produces a similar run to last start then she could be too quick. Just thought from the better draw and at an each way qoute it was worth the risk.

Best Roughy Ascot r7 Vital Flirt ; Firstly let me point out it’s 100/1. It’s very likely to run unplaced but here’s my reasoning. It has never done much 1st or 2nd up and last start it was held up most of the straight and not really tested. Last preparation it ran same cracking races including a 60+ graduation win. Now considering the favourite Dance Music is coming out of the Railway and Kingston Town we are obviously facing a stiff ask. But when you consider a horse like Beret is $5.50 and a legitimate chance if the favourite doesn’t cope with the hard prep then I’m willing to waste a couple of bucks each way in case she pulls out a career peak performance at 100-1. I actually have Oceanzara in my blackbook . My notes read going much better than numerical form suggests , wait for senior rider to go back on and drop in class. Well the senior goes on but she jumps into the deepest end possible. Should be 300-1 but it provides another novelty option. Angelic Miss looks the other main winning chance.

Best Bet Ascot r9 He’s A Lucky Lad ; 3yo who was only beaten 4.5 lengths in the guineas then finished all over the top of the older horses in a midweek c3 . Steps up in grade and distance but has stayer written all over him and has plenty of upside . Looks a Derby type in the Autumn and this race is well within his reach.

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Thursday Tips

Best Roughy Pinjarra r4 Amber Mamber ; Last time she was 2nd up she knocked our horse Prize Pursuit off at 100s. We specked her first up on this basis and she ran well , finishing 5th but right alongside 3rd and the winner has won again since. Stack of speed engaged here and she will sit out the back and try and run on . Small each way speck at 20’s.

Best Value Pinjarra r5 Chad’s Me Dad ; Tipped she would improve stepping out to 1400m and she ran a bottler at big odds. Her 1/2 brother Starthefriar found 1600m a stretch but she was hitting the line hard behind a winner who went back to back yesterday. Wide open race with a long tail so $9 each way looks a decent play.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r6 Kasonori ; Won it’s maiden well as a odds on favourite then things haven’t worked out next two. Raced outside the leader into gale force winds where leading was a no go zone then was caught wide in a c3. Drops back to a c1 and were getting $7.50/$2.40 each way .

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r1 Safety Bay : Should find the front with 54kgs on her back and from there be hard to catch. The drop back to 1200m really helps. There will be a wall chasing late but think we can cling on . Providing there is 8 runners I’m going 40/60% to cover bet.

Ascot r5 Proconsent ; Put the writing on the wall with a fast finishing 2nd behind Comfort Me who then ran 2nd in a Railway . Then looked in trouble before exploding with 60kgs on his back and winning eased down. Same weight , track and distance, he’s my “Best Winning Chance “of the day but at odds on I can’t label it as my best bet. $2 even with a boost and I suggest having a crack.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Marocchino ; Has won 3/4 this distance including 2/2 at Ascot. Last start chased a leader who was going breakneck speed and then was left a sitting duck down the straight but held them reasonably comfortably on the line. Should get an easier run on speed this time and last preparation he put 5 wins in a row together so he should be in this for a very long way. $7.50 each way looks outstanding value.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Geraldton r5 Billy Jack ; Has strung two wins together , appreciating the step up in distance each time. This is a step up in class but drops considerably in weight.

Geraldton Quaddie (r5-8) ; 4 , 1 , field , field . $132 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Ascot r2 The Velvet Queen ; Came from last at a very short quote first up and had to really dig deep to catch a horse that has won easily herself at it’s next start ,thrashing the rest. Again the “pro’” are looking for leaders with the rail out 11 into fresh easterlies but we are yet to see anything but a fair track at Ascot. I’m backing her class in a small field to run them down. This is a very good field for a midweek but can’t get Marinsky Ballet that long in the market ($26). Spewing it’s pay 1 & 2 only so will have novelties instead.

First 4 ; 1st 9 , 2nd - 4th 1 2 7 8 ($24 for 100%).

Best Bet Ascot r3 Trevern ; Tipping him to jump and run and from there he looks very hard to catch. No spoils at $1.80 ( in from $2.15) , thinking we will get $2 +if we’re patient unless leaders are dominating.

Ascot r5 Westriver Miracle ; Usually against last start maiden winners but all the main chances in this are in the same boat or maidens . Won too easy last start and this is not much harder.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r3 Written Matter ; Solid first up win in an easier race to make it 3/4 . The pace will be hectic anytime Ziebell is engaged , add Kenyluck with an apprentice booked and Starfield Impact and the sparks should be flying off the firm deck. Watching the replays of his first two starts , his 2nd win was visually more impressive so hoping he shows the same improvement this time in as he will need to in this line up.

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1.​4.​6.​11/4/2.​3.​4.​5.​7.​10.​13.​14.​15/6 $36 for 100% *both standouts are very risky but I prefer to go for it rather than going wide and relying on a big dividend , especially with early quaddies where the pool is generally smaller.

Best Bet Ascot r7 Sheza Chalmer ; Is a horse that can find trouble in her races , no more evident than last start in the 1200m leg of this mares series , but when things fall into place she is dynamic. Angelic Miss beat her home last start but has to sustain her big sprint from near last an extra 200m . The favourite Bright Diamond was also desperately unlucky and has only missed a place once in 10 starts . Swap the silks and jockeys and Sheza Chalmer starts favourite over 1400m in my opinion but very wary. La Farola comes from a different race . She always flies first up but to win like she did with 58kgs she has to be respected , barrier 1 a tricky draw for her , will need luck getting a run. Plenty of knockout chances aswell in a great race.

Ascot r8 Western Empire / Regal Power ; With Western Empire strangling the market and for good reason we will have the quinella with the only possible danger in Regal Power. .WFA conditions , wide draw and my record of getting “morals” beat in multi’s means I’m staying well clear of the $1.40. (Punters who are on breathe a huge sigh of relief!). Many will include the filly Searchin Rocks due to the weight advantage but I’m not convinced this years 3yo form is strong enough to compete with two absolute a graders. The rest are going to battle to turn their Railway Stakes spanking around. It’s another jackpot first 4 so we will try and jag it for minimum spend.

In Order

7/1/4.​6.​8.​9.​10/3.​4.​6.​8.​9.​10 $25 for 100%

Quaddie (r6-9) FD/5/1/2.​3.​4.​8.​9.​10.​11.​12.​13 $81 for 100% * again standing out Sheza Chalmer is a huge risk but if Western Empire wins as expected then the dividend wont be massive.

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Thursday Tips

Multi “Good Thing”Northam r2 Heavenly Waters ; Very speedy 1000m specialist who should find the rail first and prove too quick. She’s still pretty green , has an apprentice on and is $1.70 . What could possibly go wrong!

Best Bet Northam r4 Sweet Admiration ; Latest trial really caught the eye , flashing home from last in quick time into a close up 3rd. The winner of that trial Lady Toronado missed the start on debut and made up many lengths . The runner up Marinsky Ballet won on the same day. Both were heavily supported and both raced on pace in the trial which gave the trial effort even more merit. At $4.20 / $1.75 40/60 % split of stake each way is the safest option, alternatively use the place as a multi leg with Heavenly Waters win. Civvy Street finds a dry track first time and is also off a nice trial. If we can get the favourite beat it could be a nice novelties race around these two.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r2 Market Stryke; Last start was up in distance and leading into a very strong headwind. Both starts prior it was run down by better horses than it meets here. Back to 1400m suits. I’ve been following Chad’s Me Dad closely purely because it is a half sister to Starthefriar. Shown glimpses at trials but so far yet to show much on race day. If she’s anything like her brother then 1400m and ridden with cover could help her improve at big odds.

Blackbooker Belmont r4 Bitofmerit ; Undefeated at trials and at only start when winning effortlessly against stakes performed horses In Buzoom and Champagne Dame. My concern is it’s almost 3 months between runs and resumes off no trial. Bookies aren’t risking him at $2.05 and I would have to see him in the mounting yard or at the very least see market support before taking those odds. On ability he would be $1.50 ish but Crypto Queen is very fast and Story Book gets the camp on both with Pike in the saddle so if he’s not fully wound up he could be vulnerable late. My suggestion ; watch the market and if he drifts slightly to around $2.50 then gets some late support yes , If he drifts past $3 then just put him in your blackbook and watch for the future.

Mad Roughy Belmont r8 Amber Mamba ; Has won 2 from 15 , 1 on debut and 1 2nd up last time in work , both at massive odds. The 2nd victory knocked off our very own Prize Pursuit (still bitter lol). All other runs have been hopeless so for whatever reason she can pull a fresh run out of the blue. Currently 50s you’d expect she jumps closer to 100’s and I’m talking $1 win $9 place just in case she bobs up.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r6 Warm N Fuzzy & Significant Hero ; Thinking this was the strongest of the heats . Warm N Fuzzy took hold of the apprentice, bolted out in front and was entitled to tire late . Senior jockey goes on and is the likely leader on a day where leading should be advantageous. Significant Hero gave up too big a headstart due to the breakneck tempo and rattled home into 2nd. So with our two bet strategy we have the most likely leader and the best credentialed swooper. Left out the winner of the heat in Delago De Hero as it got the perfect drop on the tearaway last time and draws wide this time.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Elite Street ; Undefeated this time in against the same horses and now meets them at level weights . Hopefully the expected hot rail conditions have evened out by race 8 which they often do . He can win from anywhere regardless as he did against the pattern last start and he looks the bet of the carnival to me.

First Four * Jackpot means it will pay all right even if Elite Street and Wilchino runs top 2. We missed the Railway by 3rd and 4th coming in wrong order so will have another go.

1st ; 2

2nd -4th 1 3 8 11 12 15 16 ($7 Exacta $42 trifecta $210 f4)

Quaddie (r6-9) : 8 10 , 4 (6) ; 2 , field . $24 for 100% ea combo . Skinny Version

Wide Version ; Field , 4 , 2 , Field. $180 for 100%

Threw Media Baron in as a mad roughy vs Midnight Blue to try and get some value in the skinny version. Could consider spending less on that combo.

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Friday Fill Up

Best Bet Albany r8 Mr Causeway ; Looks primarily a race in two between the two newcomers to the state who both won impressively here on opening day. Mr Causeway won a c2 1100m leading all the way whereas Blue Line won a 1000m maiden coming from the back. Those who follow my tips regularly know I’m against maiden winners next start 99% of the time hence I’m with the Favourite from barrier 1 to lead and win.

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 3 , 10 , 4 8 , 2 3 4 5 9 . $20 for 100%

Quaddie (r5-8) ; 2 3 , 5 6 , 1 2 3 5 7 , 2 . $20 for 100%

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Thursday Tips

Northam r2 Marinsky Ballet ; From a good family and gets Pike on debut in a small field where nothing stands out as above average. Has had 4 trials so fitness wont be an issue and the latest 2nd was in quick time for maiden class. Bred to get further than 1100 so perfect starting point.

Northam r3 Lady Toronado ; If Marinsky Ballet wins r2 then this will jump favourite. Won the trial mentioned above showing good speed throughout. Ignore the 10/10 in 400m trial when missing the kick and racing greenly. Primative did finish 10 lengths in front of it in that 400m trial before racing greenly herself on debut so can threaten with race experience. Hoping Dance Session has to do some work to get across as she’s very fast but hails a cab late.

Best Bet Northam r4 Acting God ; This one is lucky to not be in the sack file after not finding much last start despite being presented at the right time. Hopefully it was a case of the 2nd up blues and no disrespect to connections of the others but it’s a very thin maiden on paper. My massive concern is staying at 1300m , especially from the draw but if it can get a tow in on the corner it really should be running past these.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r4 Ghost Who Walks ; Predicting a speed war between two apprentice ridden leaders in Trevern and Shock Result. If he can stick to the rail somewhere close behind those two and get a gap on straightening then he has the ability to run them down. Trevern’s Mercanto form is very strong for this so if he can conserve some petrol he will go close. Market watch on anything first up for the Lane stable (Llessur) .

Best Bet Belmont r5 Safety Bay ; This time I’m hoping rather than expecting the apprentice can rate this inform mare outside another speedy mare in Spillinova rather than engaging in a speed war. Massive plunge pulled off on her last start and she was never going to lose after finding the front with ease. This is a considerably harder race but has a nice weight and back 100m suits.

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Sunday Prayers

Belmont r3 Awesome Chatter ; Good enough effort at only start as a 2yo to be competitive here. The trial win leading up to this first up run was soft , indicating he has come back even better.

Belmont r5 Market Stryke ; At both runs so far has made the winner earn their victory. Both winners have then won there next start in higher grade. Only has to run the 1650m to take this out.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Kasanori ; Bred to be real smart and both starts to date have been very good. Don’t generally like backing horses straight out of maiden grade but considering he was first up over 1300m without a trial last time there should be plenty of improvement to come.

Belmont Quaddie (r5-8) ; 2 , 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 10 11 , 5, 1 2 3 4 8 9 10 12 $72 for 100%

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