Best Bet Northam r3 All Man ; This is considerably easier than what he’s been contesting lately. The last time he was in this grade he won with 59kgs. Would change my tip to Special Picture on a soft 6/7 , that’s about the only concern using form. A bigger concern is backing anything in a weak staying race where they can take turns. Looks the one though on a pretty ordinary meeting.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 2 , field , 1 , 3 (2) $12 for 100% ($24 to include n2) .
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Best Bet Northam r1 Speckles ; She has more ability than her record suggests , particularly in this distance range. Should of just about won last start but was slow away and held up several times in the straight. Leaving the barriers is a worry as she’s done it before but if she can hold a spot from the barrier she is the one to beat in a weak maiden.
Best Value Northam r2 Admiration Express ; This is a cracker of a 3yo maiden and clearly the race of the day. My selection is a nice horse ready to run a race on debut to keep the party going from yesterday for Jason Miller Racing. There are a stack of exciting prospects headed by the fav Sentimental Belle but from barrier 2 she should get the right run to be competitive at $12 each way.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 Prize Pursuit ; He was never going to lose last start and with the same weight , perfect barrier and almost identical strength of opposition ( you could argue it’s weaker) , it’s not hard to see why punters have zeroed in . Love Drunk Baby looks the only possible threat . Perhaps he can lead from the inside depending on what the enigmatic Sneaky Fox does . With normal racing luck Prize should be gunning him down regardless.
Betting Strategy ; 100% wins Actually hoping money comes for Love Drunk Baby to make it worth our while. At around $2.20 - $2.40 I’m willing to have a bet , Odds on is no longer my cup of tea no matter how confident.
Novelties ; 1 (5) , (1) 5 , field , field $1 quinella/exacta , $8 trifecta , $56 first 4 . (costs dbl if you have both numbers 1st and 2nd. )
Early Quaddie (r2-5) 1 3 (4) , 2 3 4 5 6 , 2 3 (4) , 1 (5) . $20 for 100% ( $90 to include bracketed numbers)
Best Value Kalgoorlie r6 STARTTHEFRIAR ; If he runs up to his best at his favourite track and distance he runs an almighty race at odds here. He’s runs since winning last years Hannans 12 months ago have been average however he is a quirky horses for courses animal that either runs a cracker or flops badly. I’m generally concerned about his 2nd up record and his attitude , he could be looking for the retirement paddock but this is the race to find out if he’s got anything left to offer. Small each way play. If Excellent Dream backs up from Thursday then he and Yeah Dardy have the obvious form lines for novelty players.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r6 Dawn Amnesty ; Has been hitting the line hard this track when allowed to drop out early. Usual racing pattern offsets wide barrier. It thrashed current favourite No Whispering only a month ago so I don’t understand the price differential ($2.75 vs $10) . Great each way price .
Best Value Kalgoorlie r7 Creator ; This horse doesn’t go a yard in the wet so the stable brought him to kal and were instantly rewarded. Yes a Hannan’s Handicap is a much tougher assignment but he also goes from 62kgs / 59.5kgs down to the minimum of 54kgs and gets a good run on top of the speed. At $18 I suggest it will give them something to catch .
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 2 3 4 5 9 , 5 11 , 2 3 5 6 7 9 12 13 , 2 (5 11) $80 for 100% ( $40 for 25%)
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Best Bet Geraldton r1 Central Force ; The two cerise n white 3yo’s (different trainers) dominate the market and they are coming out of the same race where both were on debut. Central Force beat Classic Encounter home and while he had the better run in transit , to my eye looked a lot more ready to go whereas the filly was very green. The money has already seen a positive push towards the gelding and I’m happy to go that way. Dented Romance and Vital Times just as dangerous if they run up to their best first up.
Novelties ; 6/1.3.8/1.3.7.8/1.3.7.8 $3 exacta , $9 trifecta , $18 first 4 .
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Best Bet Belmont r7 Cosmopolitan Girl ; Looking for a repeat of last two starts where she has been ridden positively early to find the front and never looked liked losing. Rathmine Lady has the best form to challenge , tricky draw though.
Best Value Belmont r9 Miss Alfie ; She was only 2nd up when she ran a promising 2nd to Chokslam over 1900 at York. Not sure about the last 100m for both of them but at $15 each way I’m prepared to have a bet .
R9 Boxed trifecta 2 5 6 10 .
Quaddie (r7-10) 4 , 2 , 2 5 6 10 , 1 2 4 6 7 10 11 $28 for 100%
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Best Bet Northam r6 Boy Blue ; Worked hard on debut over 1400m when running a top 3rd to Fly Away Home who won a Saturday race yesterday. Straight out to 1600m and tried to lead all the way , fighting them all off besides one who is favourite in the next race. Manhattan Rain is dropping in class and from a red hot stable but I’m not convinced it’s going that well. I am convinced the market is the wrong way round and I’m going to have a decent bet here.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; field , 3 , 1 4 ( 3 5 ) , field $162 for 100% ($40.50 for 25% as back up)
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Belmont r5 He’s A Lucky Lad ; Have had this horse in the black book as a progressive Saturday stayer since his early 3yo days. 4/5 at Belmont and prefers dry ground which he gets tomorrow. The knock is the price. He likely gets back to last and making ground at Belmont has been next to impossible. Plenty of pace engaged for a staying race so I will leave it with trainer & jockey to hatch a plan to overcome the gate. Surely we get better than $3.20 .
Early Quaddie (r2-5) , 1 3 4 9 , 1 2 5 7 , field , 3 $144 for 100% (very risky standing out last leg tip , hopefully where playing for a decent dividend to warrant the risk
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Belmont r5 He’s A Lucky Lad ; Have had this horse in the black book as a progressive Saturday stayer since his early 3yo days. 4/5 at Belmont and prefers dry ground which he gets tomorrow. The knock is the price. He likely gets back to last and making ground at Belmont has been next to impossible. Plenty of pace engaged for a staying race so I will leave it with trainer & jockey to hatch a plan to overcome the gate. Surely we get better than $3.20 .
Early Quaddie (r2-5) , 1 3 4 9 , 1 2 5 7 , field , 3 $144 for 100% (very risky standing out last leg tip , hopefully where playing for a decent dividend to warrant the risk
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Important Track Update ; We have woke up to a drying soft 5 . Seeing as I’ve tipped a rough as guts wet tracker that’s not ideal. I will leave the tip there with novelties but I don’t suggest spending much on them.
Best Roughie Belmont r8 I’m Eugene ; Record suggests it is far more effective on soft tracks. Hopefully by the last it hasn’t dried out too much. Last start before a quick freshen up spell he ran 3rd to Let’s Galahvant this track and distance. That horse has won Saturday races since so @ $30 I will have a little spec each way . The favourite Tiffany Street is quite small so 57kgs against the older horses at odds on is not my cup of tea . If I was asked the most likely winner she would still go on top , just not a betting proposition at the price.
R8 Novelties ; 6.8/2.3.4.6.7.8/2.3.4.6.7.8/.2.3.4.6.7.8 $10 exacta , $40 Trifecta $120 first 4.
Quaddie (R5-8) ; 1 2 , 4 7 , 2 3 4 , 6 8 $24 for 100%
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Sluice Box ; Trainer openly told punters Sluice Box was not ready last start. with today and the Kalgoorlie Cup in mind. Thought he was the only danger to the now scratched General Grant so naturally goes on top. The new fav No Apology has changed ownership but remained in the same stable as the scratched fav. It was heavily backed in the Coolgardie Cup and won softly. I have doubts at the longer trip but am very wary of the market moves , especially with the Kalgoorlie Cup being Sluice Box’s main aim.
Novelties : 6/1.3.4.5.10/1.3.4.5.10/1.3.4.5.7.9.10 $5 exacta , $20 trifecta $100 first 4
Best Value Kalgoorlie r8 Blue Turns to Grey ; In career best form and coming off a soft win this track and distance. Again up in class but drawn to get a great run with a very light weight and is each way odds. The form around Lincoln’s Law reads very well for this and I will be backing both.
Novelties ; 6.15/1.2.3.4.6.15/1.2.3.4.6.15/1.2.3.4.10.11.12.16 $10 exacta $40 trifecta $256 first 4
Quaddie (r5-8) 2.3.8.9.11.12/1.2.4.5.6.7.9.10.12.14./ 6 / 6.15 $120 for 100%
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 General Grant ; Tough win last start with 59kgs. The big step up in class is offset by the drop to the minimum of 54kgs. Trainer openly told punters Sluice Box was not ready last start. Did beat the fav home in May by 5 lengths however a 5kg swing in the weights has me firmly in Grant’s corner.
Novelties : 6.8/6.8/1.2.3.4.5.7.9.10/1.2.3.4.5.7.9.10 $1 quinella $16 Trifecta $112 first 4.
Best Value Kalgoorlie r8 Blue Turns to Grey ; In career best form and coming off a soft win this track and distance. Again up in class but drawn to get a great run with a very light weight and is each way odds. The form around Lincoln’s Law reads very well for this and I will be backing both.
Novelties ; 6.15/1.2.3.4.6.15/1.2.3.4.6.15/1.2.3.4.10.11.12.16 $10 exacta $40 trifecta $256 first 4
Quaddie (r5-8) 2.3.8.9.11.12/1.2.4.5.6.7.9.10.12.14.15/8 (6) /6.15 $132 for 100% ($33 for 25%)
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Best Bet Belmont r2 Cywer ; Yet to finish worse than 2nd in her 5 start career and you could argue she should be unbeaten this preparation. Wide draws on bias tracks have proven a hindrance , last time they bucked the odds and went forward . While she only fell in in a Northam c1 she was coming off a gap between runs and showed great heart to fight a talented rival off who had every chance. Drawn wide again I think Harvey will go forward and sit outside equal favourite Vogue’s Choice. Should be a dogfight down the straight and hoping the Pontiff can lift her home.
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Best Bet Caulfield r7 Showmanship ; Use this horse as my punting ATM and I’m very bullish I’ll be withdrawing again tomorrow . Hard to bet early when the pre post favourite is 2nd emergency in I Wish I Win. He was awesome first run in Australia but had the race run to suit . Showmanship is 8/10 , 4/4 1400m and handles all conditions. Will sit midfield and explode . Can get $7.50 / $2.60 if you shop around which is awesome each way value.
Best Value Graceful Girl ; Winterbottom winner and stablemate to Showmanship , she looks ready to show her best 3rd up. Wouldn’t want it too wet (soft 6 max) but she has the ratings to provide great back up to the main bet on a small stake at 10 / 90 % basis.
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Northam , favourites and my Tips rarely combine for a fill up however the latter half of the program really does look like a favourite lovers paradise. For this reason I am suggesting a system 2 / 3 win bet ( min 2 out of 3 have to win to collect ) and a decent go at the quaddie for units.
Northam r6 Strike Now ; Looked slightly disappointing last run . Maybe the wheels were spinning in the soft conditions or he was looking for further and today he gets a firmer surface , 1600m and easier opposition.
Best Bet Northam r7 George Gently ; Greenness may be the only reason he hasn’t won his maiden yet. He can take some balancing but once he does he can really attack the line. Gets a wonderful opportunity to park in behind them and pounce down the straight. Starchienne was a decent debut and looks the clear danger.
R7 Novelties ; 2 8 , 2 8 , 7 9 10 , field . $1 quinella , $6 trifecta $54 first 4 .
Northam r8 Defending ; Won a c3 1300m then went to the same race as Strike Now and finished off okay not far behind him. This is much easier , the 60kgs from the wide gate is more of a concern than the opposition. Pepper Assault is 0/5 at 1300m , last 100m sees her out but if she can get a cushy run she might be the danger.
Quaddie (skinny) ; 1 4 7 12 , 1 , 2 (8) , 1. $4 ($8 ) per 100%
(wide) ; 1 4 7 12 , field , 2 , 1 . $64 per 100%
my staking plan ; 7 * $4 skinny ($28) 2 * $8 skinny ($16) 1 * wide $64 Total Spend $108
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Best Bet Belmont r3 Mega Reward ; Has to carry 60.5kgs but he has a very much in form Paul Harvey, who is the king of lifting them over the line. Wet ground no problem , just has to get across outside the leader without burning too much petrol early. 40/60 % each way. Stars Aplenty gets a softer run and is a big danger. Romero finished right behind Mega Reward recently and gets 2kg swing . Keen to take on the favourite Costume Party today. Her best form wins this but it’s 2yo form which can be misleading . First up no trial on a soft 7 with no wet track data to go off . Too many ifs to back her as favourite.
Novelties ; 1 2 8 , 1 2 3 8 , 1 2 3 6 8 , field $27 trifecta $135 first 4 .
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 2 , field , 1 2 8 , 2 4 5 . $99 for 100%
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Best Bet York r1 Chokslam ; York is a quirky track with a downhill run down the back straight before the home corner. Horses with previous success are a good place to start. He is one from one this track and distance and coming off a last start 2nd in good time. Very hard to beat.
York r4 Rare Case ; On speed is generally advantageous at York and her last start 4th when leading was in a much better form race than she meets here. Was super keen at $2.35 , has just shortened into $2 before my eyes which is rock bottom.
Due to the odds I will concentrate on the early quaddie .
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 , field , 2 3 4 5 6 8 , 10 . $60 for 100%
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Belmont r6 Buster Bash ; There wasn’t much separating Buster Bash , Westriver Miracle and Blinder last time. The weight swing and drier track can help the latter two turn the tables. I still think Buster can find enough under the vigor of the Pontiff to hold them off.
Exacta ; 3 , 5 & 6 $2 / unit
Best Bet Belmont r8 Resortman ; Has come back off injury in beast mode . Only failure was a complete forgive on a bottomless heavy 10. He has overcome severe on pace bias in both his wins in harder races which is quite remarkable. If that bias was to present again then Phanta back in distance and dropping significantly in weight could take some catching.
Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) ; 3 ( 5 6 ) , 5 7 , 2 ( 7 ) ; 2 3 4 6 7 8 10 . $14 ( $84) for 100%
Back Up Version ; 3 ( 5 6 ) , 1 2 3 4 6 8 , 2 (7) , 2 3 4 6 7 8 10 . $21 ( $126 ) 50 %
How I am playing it ; 9 x $14 , 1 x $84 , 2 x $21 , 0.5 x $126 Total Spend $315 .
WA Runners Representing ;
Flemington r5 Regal Power; Very classy customer who is unbeaten at 1600m. On a firmer surface I would definitely be having a nibble at the $16s with Ollie on board. Will be following deeper into prep and can place today . Western Empire might also be looking for a firmer surface. Needs to improve on his first up run at WFA .
Best Bet Flemington r7 Kissonallfourcheeks; 2nd up 1400m is her ideal scenario and she is proven here at headquarters in this company. Track presents wetter than a 6 and I’m putting the cue back in the rack.
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Best Bet Northam r6 Legacy of Tara ; Caught deep without cover on debut but still proved too strong over 1300m. The jump from maiden to c1 class catches a lot out but being a 3yo filly she still gets in reasonably light. I like following small stables when they are in form and they got a winner yesterday.
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 3 10 , 1 5 6 7 8 , 8 , 2 4 8 .
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Best Bet Belmont r1 Universal Flair ; Going off the 7 length heavy 10 win two back she should be very hard to beat. Leads on her ear for an apprentice who is good out in front. Obviously Azena will be the one mowing her down late . Sticking with the proven swimmer who also gets a 1.5kg weight swing to reverse finishing positions from last start on a soft 5.
Belmont r4 Cheerful Moment ; Yet to win over 1400m or 2nd up but has a Flemington 2nd and loves it wet. If he can come a narrow 2nd over 1200m first up with a big gap to 3rd then he can beat this lot.
Belmont Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 , field , field , 1. $90 For 100%
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Runner Alert Kalgoorlie r3 Prize Pursuit ; We have gone to Kal to chase a firmer surface and a drying soft 5 is perfect. Norton bit on to try and get him to settle and back to 1200m on the advice of jockey Paul Harvey who rode him last time. His work leading in has been sharp. $3.50 fav for a 1200m experiment is not appealing personally , happy to watch , learn and hopefully add another photo to the pool room.
Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Dalhousie ; Has a turn of foot to be very dangerous in this company . First run at Kal was massive , storming home from last. This is a tougher field but Chris Parnham going on is a massive tick. Hoping he can settle her a touch closer .
Kalgoorlie r8 Sluice Box ; While I’m sure this is a campaign aimed at the Kalgoorlie Cup , the scratching of Savage One presents a wonderful opportunity to win today’s feature on the way. Gets the perfect trail into it and as long as he’s wound up enough he will finish over the top.
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