Best Bet Esperance r8 Baby Blues ; 2/2 at Esperance , both wins full of merit . Just has to extend her current form out to 1600m and she is the one to beat again and we are getting each way odds.
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.Best Value Belmont r2 Frantic War ;
Frantic War is a much more seasoned horse this time in , hopefully gets across to outside the lead then gets some cover or slots in . If he reproduces the turn of foot displayed in his trials then he will be right in the finish.
Betting Strategy ; 20 % Win 80% place . Very confident he runs a big race but I really want to maximize the profit on the place . Best current odds is $7.50 / $2.45 (BET365) .
Novelties ; 4.8.11/4.8.11/2.3.4.8.11.12/2.3.4.8.11.12 $3 quinella , $24 trifecta , $72 first 4
Belmont r3 Fries With That ; Pike rode him to his only win 3 starts ago and he then ran a narrow 2nd to Gage Roads with 60kgs . That horse franked the form by running 3rd in the Breeder’s Classic Sunday. Forgive the latest fail when apprentice ridden. Reel Themoff has improved this prep and is the main danger . Banking on a head start with Pike getting everything out of Fries to fend him off.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; field , 4 8 11 , 1 3 , 5 6 . $84 for 100%
Best Bet Belmont r6 Hola Marea ; Won in the same grade and the same track & distance as a short priced favourite first up two weeks ago. While he goes up 1.5kgs and is yet to place 2nd up (2/3 first up ) , this is very winnable. Wary of Predetermined , eastern states provincial form is good enough for this and the stable have won heaps of races with these types. Goes in the quaddie.
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 5 6 , 1 2 5 6 9 , 1 2 , 3 6 9 $60 for 100%
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Best Value Pinjarra r9 Miss Intention : Only won 2 / 29 but those wins were both at Pinjarra and recent. The form out of the last start 2.4 lengths 6th is stronger than what it meets here. At $10 I’m happy to play each way.
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Best Bet Ascot r3 Wee Ripper ; Ran 2nd first up same track & distance and it’s second up record is far superior . This is no harder if not easier.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 2 3 , 1 (field) , 2 4 , 2 $6 for 100% ($54 field )
Best Value Ascot r7 Nobellity ; Won this grade over 1000m at 20’s then stepped out to 1200m and led everywhere but the post at 30’s in quick time. Should find the front again and this is no harder so $8.50 each way looks a great bet.
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Best Bet Ascot r3 Wee Ripper ; Ran 2nd first up same track & distance and it’s second up record is far superior . This is no harder if not easier.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 2 3 , 1 (field) , 2 4 , 2 $6 for 100% ($54 field )
Best Value Ascot r7 Nobellity ; Won this grade over 1000m at 20’s then stepped out to 1200m and led everywhere but the post at 30’s in quick time. Should find the front again and this is no harder so $8.50 each way looks a great bet.
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Best Value Belmont r9 Vonsnip ; Absolutely let rip to win her first race in 7 attempts last start . Started in the market in ok 2yo form races last season and this is wide open . Can take the confidence from last time and go on with it at $9 each way.
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1.5.7.10/2.6.8.9.11/2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9/13 $160 for 100% * Obviously spending $160 on a quaddie standing out a $9 pop in the last is high risk . Consider a smaller flexi stake or go for glory!
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Best Bet Geraldton r1 Ihts Closing Inn ; Narrowly beaten in a Pinjarra 1500m maiden first up . Fitter , drawn to get every chance and the journey to the bush should pay dividends.
Geraldton r3 Designated Drinker ; Is 3/3 since arriving here this season and all victories have been full of merit. Patchwork is the obvious danger with no weight on her back but she is unproven at the trip whereas our tip got the job done with 60kgs last start despite jumping 500m in distance and overcoming difficulties in the run.
Geraldton r4 Mocha Dream ; Apprentice ridden , first up , I can’t label a $1.55 pop a “Best Bet” but I can justify the short odds. It’s trial win was against stablemate Rockaria who won at Pinjarra on debut so this 3yo really should get the job done. At $1.75 I would of considered having a fair dinkum crack but the risk vs reward is now too great. Use it with the other two in a multi or trixie (2/3 have to win for a collect). There’s no such thing as a good thing in racing unfortunately.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 8 , 1 2 3 4 , 2 6 , 5 . $8 for 100%
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Best Bet Mt Barker R5 Zac Luvs To Fly,: Type o f horse who rarely wins but is never far away . The fact he should lead at a great track to do so and is coming from a win and 2nd in Pinjarra , Belmont c3/s makes him very hard to beat. Rosebush is going aswel as she can and is the clear danger/ quinella horse
Best Value Mt Barker r7 Chevel DE Vega ; Tough On Pacer who simply doesn’t lie down. While there will be a line of them having a crack late the fact he is each way odds encourages me to back him to fight them off.
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Best Bet Ascot r2 Work In Progress ; Genuine 1000m horse drawn to get a gun run right on the leaders backs. Has been heavily supported into $2.60 which is pretty skinny considering the rise in class but is the best bet on a pretty lackluster program.
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Esperance r6 Baby Blues ; Was a talented mare early days before losing her way in the metro/provincial circuit. First run here resulted in a soft win. This is a big jump in class but there isn’t much difference in these country meetings and she drops to the minimum to compensate. Market flucs while writing this post last 5 mins have been $7 , $4 fav, $5 . Seems the bookies are guessing a fair bit , definitely need to go each way.
Best Bet Esperance r7 Count Grundy ; Out of all the horses in the market (virtually 4 equal favs) , he is the only one that has recent winning form at the distance . Gets in well after the claim and draws for an economical run.
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Best Value Pinjarra r2 Rockaria ; Was super impressed by his last trial , was run down for 2nd in quick time and looked like it had something left in the tank. !000m straight on debut with some ok form amongst the favourites is a bit of a guessing game but at $9 I’m willing to play each way.
Best Bet Pinjarra r5 ZaZa Rock ; Has run 2 close 2nds at only 2 starts and most of the field has either had plenty of chances or not shown much at trials. Horses in their first preps can train off at the drop of a hat but if she performs to her best she is extremely hard to beat.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 10/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9/4.6.7/1.2.3.6.7.8.10.11.12 $243 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r6 Seberate ; Hasn’t won for an eternity but has been competitive in races with form that is lengths better than what he meets here. Won’t get a better opportunity to break the drought from the perfect barrier.
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1.2.3.6.7/1.2.3.5.6.7.8/2/2.3.4.5.6.7 $210 for 100%
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Ascot r4 Prize Pursuit ; Up considerably in class , down 5.5kgs in weight and coming off a career best run at the same track & distance. Out of 7 runners we are literally the only runner not interested in the lead hence the sparks should be flying and we plan to have last shot at them . If he can replicate his finishing burst from last in a bigger field with 60kg then he has to be a chance. All The Kings Men deserves his favourite tag on the back of his last prep. First up no trial after a freshen up , hopefully he’s underdone and the rest are all around our level. Shame it’s only 7 runners so small win stake only and a crack at the novelties.
4.7/4.7/1.3.5.6..8/1.3..5.6..8 $10 trifecta , $40 first 4
Ascot r8 Roch Legacy ; Raced without luck 2 weeks ago in a very similar race where he got shuffled out of it before making ground ducking and weaving through traffic. Clearer air and I see no reason why he can’t be right in the finish at each way odds. Our Norman and Mr Fahrenheit coming out of the same race look the main dangers .
Best Bet Ascot r9 Buster Bash ; Had him on top for take 1 and my confidence has actually risen for the re run. Had a 1450m trial on Monday otherwise it would of been 5 weeks between runs which is the scenario Alaskan God now faces . Truly Inspired gets a long way back and loses Pike , that’s very important for mine. All Buster has to do is run the 2400m out strongly and he will be awfully hard to run down . Each Way special.
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Pinjarra r5 Lo Lo Lohnro ; Has had 1 1000m trial since arriving in WA which he won quite impressively. Hasn’t done much in NSW but this is very weak so speculating he is ready for the 1600m first up. Small stake bet.
Best Bet Pinjarra r8 Bopping Blue ; First up last prep he was too speedy for a similar field , same track and distance. Has changed stables but trial was very quick so a repeat could be on the cards. Ex stablemate Material Witness is 2/2 down the Pinjarra straight. Not an easy ride for an apprentice but looks the main danger.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1.2.8.9.10.13.15/1.2.4.5.7.8.9.10/1.8/1 (2) $112 for 100% ( $28 for 25% back up))
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Belmont Trixie : A trixie is a 4 combination bet ( 3 doubles and 1 treble ) involving 3 selections. Basically you need 2/3 to collect and 3 for a fill up. I often use this system when 2 of the selections are short priced favs. * Ain’t No Other Man is scratched leaving us with the double and making the quaddies redundant.
Belmont r1 Crystal’s Dream ; Yet to miss the podium in 4 starts and you could argue bad barriers cost her victory at her first 2 starts. Should appreciate the step up in distance , the rise to 59.5kgs the stumbling block at the short odds.
Belmont r4 Ain’t No Other Man ; Continues to jump favourite , continues to find 1 or 2 better on the day. Looked home again Cup Day until the flying duck Prize Pursuit ran him down . Beat the rest comfortably enough. Weaker race , less weight , finds the front . $2 is decent for his form and the race set up , will he put them away (I think he will) or will he wait for 1 to run him down , D Day!
Best Bet Belmont r6 Defiant Diorite ; Began the campaign with a shock victory at 100s , beating the talented Crystal’s Dream who starts odds on in r1. Since then it has backed it up with good runs in tougher company , especially last start when fighting to the line in a Saturday 3yo plate , only going down in the last stride in a 4 way photo. Either leads or gets a soft run from barrier 1, back in grade and looks hard to beat.
Early Quaddie (R1-4) ; 1/2.3.7.12/FD/1 $32 for 100%
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1/FD/4.11/1.2.3.5.6.7.8.9.12 $162 for 100%
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Belmont Trixie : A trixie is a 4 combination bet ( 3 doubles and 1 treble ) involving 3 selections. Basically you need 2/3 to collect and 3 for a fill up. I often use this system when 2 of the selections are short priced favs.
Belmont r1 Crystal’s Dream ; Yet to miss the podium in 4 starts and you could argue bad barriers cost her victory at her first 2 starts. Should appreciate the step up in distance , the rise to 59.5kgs the stumbling block at the short odds.
Belmont r4 Ain’t No Other Man ; Continues to jump favourite , continues to find 1 or 2 better on the day. Looked home again Cup Day until the flying duck Prize Pursuit ran him down . Beat the rest comfortably enough. Weaker race , less weight , finds the front . $2 is decent for his form and the race set up , will he put them away (I think he will) or will he wait for 1 to run him down , D Day!
Belmont r6 Defiant Diorite ; Began the campaign with a shock victory at 100s , beating the talented Crystal’s Dream who starts odds on in r1. Since then it has backed it up with good runs in tougher company , especially last start when fighting to the line in a Saturday 3yo plate , only going down in the last stride in a 4 way photo. Either leads or gets a soft run from barrier 1, back in grade and looks hard to beat.
Early Quaddie (R1-4) ; 1/2.3.7.12/FD/1 $32 for 100%
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1/FD/4.11/1.2.3.5.6.7.8.9.12 $162 for 100%
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Albany r3 Chad’s Me Dad ; Two promising runs to kick off the campaign then got too far back over 1400m. Her 2 career wins have been at 1600m and latest run indicates she’s screaming out for it.
Best Bet Albany r7 River Rubicon ; Looked in need of the run first up and got too far back 2nd up but he finished full of running both times. From barrier 2 he just needs to settle a little closer and get clear air to beat these.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1 3 5 6 8 , 3 4 5 7 8 10 , 3 , 2 4 6 $90 for 100%
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Best Bet Ascot r5 Goddess Of Giving ; Classy 3yo filly taking on the older horses which means she gets in on the minimum . Cheval De Vaga and Time Scale both like to lead and both are apprentice ridden so you would expect the pace to be on. This suits the filly perfectly and if the run appears she will be charging through. The early drift from $2.90 fav to $4,40 has me stumped. Not complaining though.
Best Value Ascot r6 Megazone ; Won 2 in a row this class track & distance , then went up in class and only beaten 1.5 by the very smart Alsephina before stepping up to 1800m and running 2nd . Maps to stalk Big Screen and he rarely shirks the task. 10/90% split at $15 / $3.70
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Best Bet Pinjarra r2 Northeast Eagle ; In a field with very little form , this 4yo geldings first two runs for the new stable at least indicate he is going well and will appreciate the extra 200m.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 3 5 6 , 1 , 1 3 8 , 1 2. $24 for 100%
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1 2 , 1 2 3 9 , field , 3 6 $96 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r1 Lucky Sue ; Cracking betting race where 5/6 have legitimate claims for different reasons. Sue has always shown ability and I’m thinking the soft kill when she destroyed a moderate maiden field over 1100 at Northam two starts ago has given her the confidence to now go through the grades. Backed it up when stepping up in grade and dropping back to the 1000m when getting the upper hand late. Think the 1200m will suit even better and the small field means she will be close enough to run over the top .
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