Best Bet Belmont r4 Justabittapress ; Late season 2yo who has shown above average ability at both trials , winning by a space in quick time relative to the day. $2.20 from barrier 10 on paper is questionable but if it had of drawn a gate you would be looking at odds on so there is enough in the price to have a bet for mine.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 2.4.5/FD/4/1.3.5.7 $96 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Let’s Deal ; . He is a staying type who can sprint well fresh in this distance range. Has won 3/4 first up including 1 at today’s 1400m . Whether he can round them up with 60.5kg is a genuine concern. On one hand it’s disappointing to miss the $8 when markets opened , on the other hand the support ($8 - $4.6 - $6 ) indicates he is ready to run a race.
Belmont r9 Prize Pursuit ; resumes from a spell first up in the lucky last (R9) at Belmont tomorrow. Punters have naturally gravitated to #PIKEINTHELAST on progressive mare Category Three. She was given every possible first up and comes here off a setback. Barrier 2 and Pike , she could easily get every possible again . Aztec Ruler looked real smart in his first campaign , winning both starts. Forget next prep which was abandoned after 1 run and go off two nice trials in preparation for this , very hard to beat. Universal Flair seems to be a heavy tracker. Good track against , light weight and drawn to lead means I’ll be keeping him safe. Trade War is a get back and run on type better suited to 1400m but he’s a dry tracker and better chance than his odds suggest. While the market has written Prize Pursuit off , he has run 3 2nds in 4 first up runs to date and is drawn to get a great sit behind them .
Betting Strategy : While I have 4 or 5 rated above him , $31 / $6 is good value for a nibble each way . It’s a jackpot first 4 and looks very wide so I’ll be playing that for a small % which still could pay anything.
FIRST 4 NUMBERS ; 4.8.9.10.11/1.4.5.6.8.9.10.11/1.4.5.6.8.9.10.11/1.2.4.5.6.8.9.10.11
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.12.13.14/1.2/2.3/4.5.8.9.10.11 $240 for 100%
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Best Bet Northam r6 On The Full ; He will be somewhere near the top and he will take some running down. While Northam has been better out wide / swooping all season , 1000m on a drier surface with the rail in the true position it should be ok. At least by race 6 the jockey can try and edge out there if required.
Best Value Northam r7 Riding Hood Fame ; She brought up win number 2 at start 70 in a near identical race last start. Both wins and most of her places have been at Northam on a good surface . She will get back and sustain a run down the middle . Her stats say winning back to back races is unlikely but at $8 I’m willing to spec each way.
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Best Value Belmont r6 Requisition : Finds a very similar race to last time when he loomed large but couldn’t reel in Hint of Mint. That horse got a dream inside run and didn’t go round a horse. While he could possibly get the same run we can back our tip at $9.50 / $3 each way .
Best Bet Belmont r7 Village Girl ; Was unwanted in betting first up but pushed a short priced favourite who found the fast lane out wide all the way to the line. Jumps quickly to 1400m but while you can get $5 each way she should get a soft enough run to fight it out.
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Fear The Wind ; He and stablemate Queen Alina have a stranglehold on the market. He’s going for 5 in a row and while he hasn’t beaten much , he seems to keep improving every start. Pike sticks , he’s obviously rock hard fit for the conditions and is the one to beat. Queen Alina was set a big task 2nd up and I was keen. She was pretty one paced but that was WFA jumping sharply in trip on Heavy. This is much more suitable but the stablemate is the safer option.
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Best Roughie Belmont r4 Loopy’s Ladies ; Has placed 4 of 7 including last start’s easy maiden victory. The jump from maiden grade to c1 is often very difficult due to a head scratching ratings system where you get a big weight penalty for winning one. This is offset a little by the 2kg claim and she’s drawn for a good run. Untried on wet is another massive query but she is paying enough , around $16 , to have a nibble each way and find out.
Best Value Belmont r5 Weaponize ; Unwanted in betting last start but he defied the drift with a great turn of foot on a wet track. This one has to lump the 60kg for winning a maiden but has ticked the wet track box. The favourite Charming Belle has to do it first up from a wide draw , Snazzler looks vulnerable at 1200m , hence I can see value in the $13 on offer.
Best Bet Belmont r6 Fearless Talk; Fought tooth and nail and went down to a progressive mare in Duchess of Gossip by the barest of margins last start at the same track , distance and class in wet conditions. That mare then went to a Saturday race and should of won. No weight on her back and she’s bound to give a sight at $7 each way .
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 Hole in One ; Beat the stablemate and favourite Hidden Ruby home recently . Hoping CJP can use barrier 3 to settle a touch closer than usual and finish over the top of her again.
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Belmont r2 Princess Lacillia ; Debuted as a heavily backed favourite over 1200m on a soft track and won effortlessly. Gets identical conditions here and expecting a repeat. Rope Them In was huge on debut also , that was 1000m from the back of the field. Will have to sustain an even bigger run over an extra 200m to reel in the fav if she runs up to expectations .
Best Bet Belmont r8 Vast Art ; Not much separates the trifecta in the 1400m Raconteur Stakes market wise for today’s 1600m Belmont Guineas . Vast Art drew one , got out at the right time and run down Rusty Dreams in the shadows of the post. Both draw wide this time and both are expected to settle back and try and swoop from the back. Vast Art is already proven at the distance and is versatile enough to overcome the barrier. Although Upper Limits is drawn better than the other two I still expect it to get back. To my eye it had Vast Art’s back last start and finished off well but the margin between them was growing . Demolish and I Love Your Smile can give cheek at odds . Saintorio’s best would be good enough but it’s a quick turnaround from his flop in the Racontuer, there is very little natural pace in this race if they decided to go forward .
R8 Novelties ; 2/1.3.4.8.10/FD/FD $5 exacta , $45 trifecta $360 first 4 .
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Best Bet Northam r7 Beat The Bro ; Extremely hard horse to catch who hasn’t won for a long time however he is racing well in decent fields . The way Northam is playing at the moment , the barrier may work out ok , sitting three wide with cover or near last and letting rip down the outside in the straight. Ryewood has upside but is $2.45 coming from a weak c1 into a c5 . The scratching of Yeman Lass really assists Zadar Rock finding the lead on his terms , vital to his chances.
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Best Bet Belmont r3 Red Square ; 2yo debutante who has trialed like a smart horse , winning all three in a professional manner. Why Me is talented and coming from a narrow 2nd in Saturday grade. The obvious danger however 10 days is a very quick back up for 2yo’s and the draw favours Red Square.
Belmont r6 Falcon Trader ; You don’t need me to find this one , just expressing my opinion it will justify the odds on quote if you want to take a double with the best bet. BELLE JOURNEE’S older siblings love a wet track and her first up run suggested she is on track. Include in the novelties.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r6 Galaxy Affair ; Handy 3yo for this region who is drawn to get the run of the race. Has won 2nd up previously and ran 2nd in a harder race first up .
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1 2 3 4 5 , field , 3 , 2 3 4 5 . $200 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r7 Queen Alina ; 2nd up over 2000m on quite possibly a heavy track is a big ask , add the wfa conditions and statistics says she’s up against it. Going to take a punt that she is the only genuine stayer in the race and she definitely has a turn of foot so if she’s fit enough she can buck the odds. She has already been best backed so I’m not the only one with this theory.
One week in to winter wet tracks and the winners once again have been hard to find. Tomorrow is no exception and I recommend small stakes .
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Best Bet Pinjarra r1 Regal Statue ; Well bred filly who did enough on debut to suggest she is better than these and will be suited by the extra 200m. $2 going from a good to heavy 9 is a significant risk but it’s the horse that stands out on the program.
Pinjarra r4 Torpedo Man ; The outside fence has been dynamite down the straight 1000m this season and he is drawn to find it. Wet track could possible change things but I’d rather take the chance at $4.20 than odds on about the fav who is first up and untried at 1000m.
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Best Bet Belmont r6 Divine Pair ; Extremely hard horse to catch who hasn’t won for a long time , is drawn wide and has to carry 60 kgs. The positives are down in class and more importantly loves wet ground whereas the others in the market are virtually untested in the conditions.
As is typical for midweek winter racing the confidence is only fair and I suggest smaller stakes .
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Best Bet Northam r9 Abloh ; Absolutely airborne at present with a barnstorming victory in the Provincial Championship at Belmont last start. If he can repeat that finishing burst over 1600m then he is clearly the one to beat. Who knows what sort of surface we will be dealing with come r9 , he has a great soft track record so should get through it. Surveillance has a remarkable track & distance record (4/5) considering he has won 5 career races. 2nd up record reads much better than first up and no doubt this race was penciled in months ago. Definitely include at big odds.
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Best Bet Belmont r2 Duchess of Gossip ; Got close to Falcon Trader over 1200m , big gap to 3rd , then beat up on maiden battlers over 1300m. Falcon Trader has franked the form since. Considering one of the main dangers China Spirit is now scratched and it’s still around the same odds as Wednesday , it now looks the best bet of the day.
Belmont r7 Bitofmerit ; 4/4 first up , all over the 1000m. He has soundness issues which is why his campaigns don’t last long but his trial indicates he’s ready to go. They will absolutely fly in this which will make holding out a horse with his turn of foot out very difficult. providing he can hold a position midfield early. $2.60 (in from $3) is getting skinny but he’s always had a boom on him.
Belmont r9 Man Crush ; Has bounced back into top form last two . When he found the top last start he didn’t look like being beaten. Noted front riding jockey Holly Watson retains the ride and if she can cross from out wide he will be awfully hard to beat. Puli might make the first part difficult.
R9 Novelties ; 1.4.6.7/1.4.6.7/1.3.4.6.7/1.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10
Best Value Belmont r 10 Bonjoy ; Only won a c3 first up but did it with arrogance from near last . This is wide open and she has a lethal turn of foot . Has already firmed into $6 but at least it’s still each way.
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Best Value Belmont r3 Kelvinator; Has been racing consistently in Saturday grade and the one time he came back to the midweeks he was far too good. Michael Poy has hit the ground running in WA and if he finds his preferred position in front he should take running down. There are a few in this that will be chasing him down late so it’s handy that he is each way odds.
Best Bet Belmont r4 Falcon Trader ; Undefeated this time in , leading and running them into the ground over 1200m on both occasions. He actually drops in weight after the claim and I see no reason why he wont rinse and repeat for the hattrick.
Belmont r8 Duchess of Gossip ; Got close to Falcon Trader over 1200m , big gap to 3rd , then beat up on maiden battlers over 1300m. $2.40 is short enough as this is a fair deal tougher but Falcon Trader has already franked the form and if he wins again as expected she could firm again.
If your a multi punter I suggest place , win , win , always have something on the singles as well
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Best Value Sandown r3 Frigid ; Peter’s Investments mare who won 3/5 in WA before heading East . Both her runs in Victoria have been well spaced and she has finished off nicely in both without threatening . 2/2 2nd up and loves a wet track , she looks ready to run a race at $10 each way.
Belmont r4 Sessions Peak ; Both Ginger Baker & Knot Secret beat him home in a very similar race last time however he had to come from last in a very slowly run race after drawing poorly. Meets them both better at the weights and draws the fence so hopefully settles much closer and turns the tables at better odds.
Best Bet Belmont r8 The Velvet Queen ; Looks a rematch with Bustler from the 1400m Belmont Sprint and I’m hoping Chris Parnham can tactically use barrier 2 vs 1 to his advantage over his brother Stephen and turn the tables over 1600m. Both will need to get out at some stage but both are capable of sprinting hard off any tempo .
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Belmont r1 Antique Miss ; The further in trip this filly gets out to , the better she goes . In a field of 6 Pike can sit back and put her into in at the top of the straight without being too far back. Opened around $1.70 , now $1.90 , we really should be getting $2 minimum considering Manavendra has better form and both he and Warralea Diamond are proven on soft. In summary she is a risk at the odds but specking she has the most upside at this distance and further.
Best Bet Belmont r5 Red Rebel ; Placed at his last 3 starts and strikes a very weak maiden . Drawn to get every chance , yet to see a wet track so that is the query.
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Best Value Belmont r5 Vane Tempest ; Has won 3/5 first up plus a 2nd and trialed really nicely alongside the very smart The Velvet Queen to indicate she is ready to fire. $8.50 looks good each way value.
Best Bet Belmont r6 Devine Belief ; Her two wins have been dominant , albeit against weaker opposition. If she can get across to outside the speed without burning too much petrol than I expect her to be too explosive for those behind her to run her down.
Belmont r9 No Dice ; Ran a close up 3rd at her first attempt at 1400m in slightly higher grade than this. If she can get some cover from the awkward gate and a tow into the race then I expect her to be very hard to hold out. If Ex Sport Girl runs out 1400m she’ll take catching and must be respected. Debonaire is coming from a Northam maiden win. Can’t have it as favourite , seeing as it’s #Pikeinthelast it might even shorten but you only live once so I’m leaving it out of everything.
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