Best Bet Albany r6 Heeza Beau ; It’s debut win was in a pretty moderate maiden but it was strong all the same. It’s trials leading in indicated it is up to this much harder race and is drawn to settle a touch closer in running. The trainer / jockey combo are having a great start to the season.
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Geraldton r1 Rocket Storm ; 3 starts for 3 3rds all at Northam. The form , especially from the last one is more than strong enough for this . $2.15 acceptable , won’t be surprised to wake up to odds on.
Geraldton r3 Reaction ; Rare for a 9yo to be in career best form but he is . One of those horses who tries his heart out every start but rarely wins. This distance is right in his wheelhouse whereas it looks too short for the better credentialed runners. Chix Chatter can easily win but will give a head start on a track that can heavily favour on pace.
Best Bet Geraldton r4 Westozi ; Last start he got every conceivable and made the most of it , holding off Patchwork over 1400m. I was mad keen on Patchwork that day but the extra 200m has me firmly in Westozi’s corner this time. Considering he will lead or box seat again , I’m expecting the same result.
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Bunbury r6 Sky Duke ; Dropping in grade for it’s first up assignment and drawn to get the world perfect sit on the speedy favourite. Who could go against a Parnham trained Playing God after yesterday!
Bunbury r7 Our Nemesis ; Was absolutely plunged last start and won accordingly. The form stacks up and drawn to get a great run.
Best Bet Bunbury r9 Valley of Queens ; Been hampered by wide barriers since joining The Lane Train . Missed by a pimple last start and comes to the same home track , distance and class from a better gate. Surprised it didn’t open favourite and kicking myself for not being quick enough.
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Best Roughie Ascot r2 Rocking The Casbah ; These Westpeed Platinum series can throw up a result so I have gone with an on speed runner drawn to take advantage of barrier 2 with a very much inform Michael Poy in the saddle. Yes has to go to another level from it’s fighting Bunbury maiden win but if you ignore his Northam flop , the Malkari Pindarri form reference stacks up for a $26 chance.
Beast Each Way Ascot r6 Iht’s Closing Inn ; Exiting staying prospect who won 5 on the bounce last prep , culminating in the Belmont Classic. She has a turn of foot that makes her very dangerous first up nice and fresh over 1400m and she gets Pike from a good gate.
Best Value Ascot r8 The Velvet Queen ; Group 1 Handicap that is as wide open as I can remember hence I have settled on a mare with an exceptional turn of foot who loves the track & distance despite the wide gate. She’ll need to find a tow into the corner and let rip but it’s going to be one hell of a race
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Best Bet Narrogin r3 Fanz ; Ran a close 3rd at Scone in August with 60kg in 58+ grade . That rates considerably higher than this lowly 46+ at Narrogin. He’s had a tick over trial since arriving in the West and if he can handle 62kgs and the heat then he’s hard to beat. The name is a good omen for extra confidence!
Narrogin r4 Frantic War ; Last start he was the only one to half stick with the tearaway winner who spaced them from start to finish at a frantic tempo. While he was beaten by a margin he also beat the rest comfortably. He’s not overly big so the 59..5 kgs over 1190m is a concern at the price but he will get a very similar run from barrier 1. Quinella with Mantelli & Zac Loves to Fly ( 1 , 4 , 9 )
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Best Value Bunbury r4 Smokey Mountain & Bayezid ; Hot day , fast deck , extremely likely to favour on speed runners so backing two at odds. Not the only speed in the race but the two in the best form.
Best Bet Bunbury r6 Becalotti ; In my opinion has these covered quite comfortably ability wise and should settle close enough. The money has been relentless for Hesket which suggests they are going to hold the front . He looked home last start but a roughie got off the canvas and worried him out of it so I’m backing the mare to overcome any bias.
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Best Bet Ascot r2 Special Sort ; Takes a good fit and happy horse to win 4 on the bounce no matter where they are and every time they step him up in class he looks stronger and stronger. Considering the 2nd favourite brings Albany form it looks like Durrant has found the perfect race to stretch it to 5 wins. Leaders bias always a concern when betting at Ascot but he shouldn’t be too far back and can run over the top.
Best Value Ascot r4 Admiration Express ; Would of liked to see her hit the line better first up but she went back from the wide gate in a fence dominated race. She has to bounce back quickly but with barrier 3 , 54kgs and a start in the Railway on the line expect a much more positive ride and performance. Enough in the $9 each way to think she can at least run top 3.
Ascot r8 Oscars Fortune ; He’s unbeaten including trials and he still looks to be learning his racing manners. If he gets the 1200m and I think he will then $2.20 looks generous. If he doesn’t then Augment is the clear danger.
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Best Bet Bunbury r3 Lost City ; Has been competitive in all her trials in quick time , including the latest which she won and looked to be traveling with more to give. Gets Pike and a barrier to get the right run. Bonny Rock had excuses first up , does she have a knock out punch? Royal Accolade has to overcome the gate , Royal Accolade ran well first up and is good odds. 3yo filly taking on older horses on debut , we deserve a better price but she’s the one to beat.
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Best Bet Ascot r1 Trespassing ; Led first up and was only beaten half a length . Has enough natural pace to be right up there again and that’s a massive advantage at Ascot .
Best Value Ascot r3 Amarlie Miss ; She only won a Geraldton Maiden on debut but it was the way she did it . She was near last in a big field on straightening and after weaving through she charged past the leader who had established a handy break. Only 7 in this and from the draw she should settle much closer.
Ascot r8 Highest Award ; Lightly raced mare who is yet to miss a place in her 2nd prep including 2/4 wins. Drawn to get all the favors close to the speed with a nice weight and her breeding suggests not only will she get 1600m she should lap it up.
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Best Value York r7 Bandelera Miss ; She has a win and a place from her last two starts , both at Ascot and at 66+ level. The topweight has made this race very compressed at the weights so she is very well suited on the minimum and goes round at around $9.50. Heavy place each way bet.
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Best Bet Ascot r6 Casino Seventeen ; Conditions didn’t suit first up in the 1600m Northam Cup but he still ran a cracker to say he’s up for a big campaign. Drawn to get the run of the race with Pike in the saddle I have it rated much shorter than the $2.40 currently on offer. No Perth Cup Futures market available but if there was he’d be right near the top.
Ascot r7 Rope Them In ; Jumped at $26 first up in the Belgravia despite winning 2 / 3 Winter 2yo races and he went enormous. Trapped deep without cover he hung tough and was only beaten just over a length into 4th. Drawn to get a far more economical run and considering the 3 who beat him home aren’t here , he has to be a solid each way chance on his way to a tilt at the Guineas. ($17 All In )
Best Value Ascot r9 Rockin Rupert ; It’s $5 the field and although he doesn’t win often he’s racing really consistently. The winner received a Pike peach last time and thought he did a great job to run 2nd from a long way back. He should get the right run from the barrier and hit the line at $9 each way.
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Best Value Flemington r8 Ethel Maude ; Local Breeder / Owner Trevor Delroy loves his stayers and is not afraid to have a throw at the stumps with his 3yo’s at the classics every year. This filly s coming from a dominant Pakenham maiden win over 2000m. Before that it ran two encouraging races here at Flemington over 1800 and 1600m against similar opposition that it meets here to say she’s not hopeless . Yes others rate better chances but at $31 (she was as short as $15 last week ) I’m prepared to have a small each way bet and hope she can outstay them.
Best Bet Northam r3 Hezangelic ; Latest trial with Blinkers on caught the eye and 2nd in that trial has run 2 seconds in stronger races than this. Pike jumps on for his debut and I think he can lead all the way .
Northam r4 Rule The Empire ; Full brother to the short priced favourite in the last , I just thought it might find the rail over the 1000m at Northam first which has been a massive advantage over the favourite Esprit Gardon who is first up no trial and drawn 8/8 . Reading the gear he’s racing with he might have his quirks like his older brother but $6 vs $1.70 makes the gamble worthwhile .
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 , 1 2 3 6 7 9 , 2 , 2 7 $12 $100%
Quaddie (r4-7) ; 2 7 , 8 10 11 , 5 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 $$42 for 100%
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Melbourne Cup Soulcombe ; Considering he bombed the start hopelessly in the Caulfield Cup he’s run was more than acceptable as a pointer for today. Loves Flemington and is drawn soft for a good run in transit for the magic man Moreira providing he jumps. The blinkers are off to try and improve his barrier manners and Waller is the Master of peaking them on Grand Final day.
Ascot r2 Bayezid ; Had 3 starts in WA and been ok in all 3 without much going right. Should settle in the first couple from the draw and that’s been gold at Ascot and last time he led it took boom horse Keshi Boom the whole straight to run him down.
Best Value Ascot r7 Big Swoop ; Just a tough stayer who races on pace and doesn’t go down without a fight. He won at $20 last start and I don’t think he should be that rough in this. Dun With The Blues is very progressive but hasn’t raced for 6 weeks . If she’s ready she’s very hard to beat but would need a push from the trainer at the skinny odds.
Bunbury r1 Brave Spirit ; Goes from running 3rd in a 3yo Saturday race to a Bunbury maiden and the Pontiff comes to Bunbury for the ride. Really should be justifying the short qoute.
Best Bet Geraldton r7 Patchwork ; Is absolutely flying at this track and distance lately, the only defeat coming when grabbed on the line by Special Sort . That horse has since come to Ascot and won 2 races in 3 days . Drops to the minimum and maps perfectly. It’s a marathon day but do your self a favor and save some for this race !
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Best Bet Albany r2 I Dreamed A Dream ; It’s 2yo form , in particular a 5th in the sires behind Super Smink who could be anything is more than good enough to win this ears pricked. 2yo form is hard to trust but if it’s come back then it is far superior than Albany maiden form.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1.3.4.5.6.8/11/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.10/4 $54 for 100%
Albany r7 Frantic War ; Not a tip just some late mail on our own runner. . We expected more first up but you always have to forgive 1 poor run. He maps to either hold the lead or sit leaders back . Looks deserves favouritism on his trial , the winner of that trial was scratched from this and won at Ascot yesterday. Starauthoress always run well this track . In summary a peak run would see him winning but he’s hard to back off his first up run at the odds.
Quaddie (r4-7) 4/1.2.7/1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10/4.7.9 $90 for 100%
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Ascot r1 Special Sort ; Found him Wednesday and if Durrant is happy to send him around again then I’m happy to stick with him. Drawn to stalk the speed again and use his turn of foot to power past them.
Best Bet Ascot r2 Malkar Pindarri ; Blinkers on , especially first time can have a positive effect but the difference they have made to this horse is incredible. She’s gone from a non winner to a mare who looks like she can rocket through the grades like her finishing bursts. Stays in the same grade and gets 1.5kgs plus an extra 100m to turn the tables on last start nemesis Laquetta’s Gift who got a Pike peach vs the favourite being shuffled back and missing by a nose.
Best Value Ascot r8 / Railway Stakes Futures Admiration Express ; This is the prep we see how good this girl really is and going by her trials she’s ready to make a statement. Genuine concern if by r8 the meeting has been dominated onspeed / rail but a fair track sees her motoring home late. It is an awkward map at this level so with that in mind I’m suggesting heavy place each way tomorrow and am more excited by the $21 i found (365) in futures betting for the Railway Stakes. Group 1 1600m under handicap conditions looks right in her wheelhouse.
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Best Bet Ascot r1 Weeraechoux ; Came from a mile off them first up and went straight past them . Only 5 in it this time and the extra 200m looks suitable. Ignoring the roughie in the small field theory , $2 actually looks good value.
Ascot r5 Wicked Venom ; Doubt he beat much on debut but he was strong to the line all the same , indicating the extra 100m shouldn’t stop him. Gets a great run from barrier 1 and there are no stars in this either.
Ascot r7 Special Sort ; Always hard when horses bring good country form to Ascot and that’s what were faced with here. He has won both starts this prep at Geraldton , using a sharp turn of foot to get out of a sticky position. Looks well weighted after the claim and considering the favourite brings a narrow Kalgoorlie win he looks a bet at $4.20 .
Ascot r8 Rockin Rupert ; Won in this class 3 starts ago and is dropping in class and weight from his latest assignments. Hard to know how Deetea is going after being untested due to lack of room first up but this is also a harder race and #Pikeinthelast believers will mean we get a decent price.
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 5 (1 3 6 7 8 9 10 11 ) 1 2 3 , 1 2 , 2 8 $12 for 100 % standing out 5 1st leg $108 to include the other numbers ( suggest flexi % insurance )
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Best Bet Laverton r6 Got Lucky ; Has only won 3 from 28 but his last two were his first runs on dirt , in this grade at this distance and he has won both effortlessly. I have it marked a lot shorter than the current $2.65.
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Best Value Ascot r6 Street Parade ; Simply a different horse when he leads. Was mad keen on his chances at Kalgoorlie and he didn’t fire a shot. Watched in horror as he led at Ascot next start and looked home before being caught late . He will almost certainly lead from barrier 2 with an out of form Halatorion coming across and Can’t Be Done on his back . Rusty Dreams is the best horse in the race by some margin and can definitely win. I just feel $9 each way is better value.
Best Bet Ascot r8 Almighty Class ; He was brilliant first up at 1000m and 1200m is only going to suit him better. He’s a beast so the extra 2kgs is not going to bother him. From barrier 2 he has options to lead or track the leader and pounce at the top of the straight. I’m very confident he hits the front , then I’ll be looking for Super Smink . The standout 2yo of last season returns off a lovely trial and will be rattling home , will need to produce something remarkable if Almighty Class is as good as I think he is .
Ascot Quaddie ; (r6=9) ; 3 9 , 1 2 5 6 7 9 10 12 13 , 2 3 , 1 3 4 5 7 8 9 11 12 $324 for 100%
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Best Multi Leg Geraldton r2 Major Mario ; 3 placings out of 4 starts in the provincial / metro area see’s him very well placed. One of those placings was behind a horse that is odds on to win at Ascot tomorrow (debatable that it should be). Wide draw on a good 3 at Gero is not a situation where i’d be confident having a decent crack at a shorty so I’ll just include him at top tote in a multi.
Best Bet Geraldton r5 The Slap ; Punters find it hard to line up Synthetic form whenever horses switch to turf however in hindsight the $9 was a crazy price first up considering the opposition and the fact he was beaten 0.3 lengths at his only start in Victoria. Gets another soft run from the draw and can definitely handle the rise in grade. Numbers 1 , 3 , 4 and 5 are dropping back from the same c2 and not much separates them which makes me more confident in the different form line of The Slap.
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Best Bet Ascot r8 Valour Road ; Maps to get the run of the race one or two pairs back and meets a similar field under similar conditions that he dominated first up. He isn’t a moral to win but $4.60 / $1.90 honestly looks one of the best bets of the year .
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