Best Bet Port Hedland r7 Awesome Chatter ; Everything in this bar Our Norman has been beaten convincingly by the favourite recently . Norman is having his first run on dirt and jumping quickly in distance. Surprised we are getting black figures and happy to have a decent bet here.
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The winter tracks are really struggling , both Belmont Wednesday and Northam Thursday were extreme bias to the outside fence. With it being a little drier Saturday and the rail changing from 20m to 8m , who knows what it will throw up. We can only watch the first few races and judge it from there. Rather than looking for horses to take advantage of any bif ias that appears , I prefer just to not bet .
Best Bet Belmont r6 Queen Of Jerusalum ; Should be undefeated last 4 and it’s hard to see what could threaten her in this other than bad luck. Manzor Magic at least brings some alternate form if she happened to not perform and you wanted a little saver.
Belmont r9 Ice Pick Nick ; 2nds behind Rope em In and Stormchaser are very good form references for this. Drawn to stalk a hot speed behind horses suspect at 1200m , $4 looks generous.
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Best Value Northam r7 Lucky Lily ; First up, won her maiden impressively from the back over 1000m. Never going to win 2nd up but thought it finished off ok. Steps up to 1300m today and it ran a close 3rd over 1200m last campaign to indicate it should suit. The favourite is way too short in my opinion so $9 each way is the bet. It was $18 before the important scratching .
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Belmont r1 Sky Duke ; Was keen on him first up and he was only run down on the line by Bonnie Lad who was heavily backed and has since won a Saturday race. He also looked a little round in the yard so with added fitness and Brad Parnham jumping on he looks hard to beat.
Best Value Belmont r2 Lyn’s Star ; Both runs at the end of the 2yo season were good enough to be competitive here and $8 is juicy enough to back on a heavy place each way basis.
Best Bet Belmont r7 So So Lucky ; She ran past maiden company on debut like they were glued to the rail . She only warmed up late so the extra 100m looks ideal. This is a deal tougher but she gets dodges the big weight hike by going to a c3.
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Best Roughie Belmont r3 Gold Merits ; Impossible horse to catch but 2 of her 3 wins from 39 starts have been at this track & distance from 6 attempts. First up she tramped wide throughout and stuck to her guns admirably , running 2nd to Covert Rose who we are tipping as the best bet of the day. She’s far from a safe bet but neither are the favourites so at $21 she’ll get some of mine each way.
Best Bet Belmont r8 Covert Rose ; She has really turned a corner this prep with two dominant Bunbury c3 victories. Seems to be really appreciating the wet tracks , has Pike and drawn perfectly. Steps up to Saturday Graduation company but it’s not a very strong one .
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Best Each Way Pinjarra r3 Argyle Star ; Has been knocking on the door all prep with Apprentices in the saddle and now Chris Parnham jumps on.
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Belmont r3 Rissoles ; Blackbooker who was enormous in defeat last time , coming wide from last against a horrible bias. He started $26 that day and this is potentially a deeper race so the $7 is short enough but he can be in the finish each way.
Belmont r4 Sophia’s Symphony ; They should go like the clackers in this and that suits Sofia’s Symphony down to the ground. She is dropping in grade from a great return in The Beaufine Stakes and is a 2 time track & distance winner. Any sort of clear air at the top of the straight she will be charging over the top of them. Valency is a two time first up winner who I’d prefer over 1200m but if the speed is as hot as anticipated , she can add value to the novelties.
SRM Sophia’s Symphony Top 2 , Final Siren Top 3 , Valency Top 4.
Best Value Belmont r7 Puli ; I can concede that his last start win in the Beaufine was somewhat by default with the likely winner going amiss and he being left out in front on a day that played on pace bias all day. However he was backed into $10 that day and is currently $16 despite it looking a no harder race. Should find the front for fun , run them along and take some catching.
Best Bet Belmont r9 Berbere ; Destroyed them first up in quick time to make it 4/8 and drawn to get every chance for #PIKEINTHELAST followers.
Again faced with a deteriorating track in expected increasing rain. Again we suggest small stakes and look out for any distinct bias.
Bunbury r3 Undercover Sniper ; He was slightly held up in restricted room behind Magnasonic last time . Wouldn’t of beaten us but could of cost him a minor placing. Barrier 1 on a backmarker type sprinter not ideal but if CJP can weave some magic and the inside is ok then he can run top 2 . The inside must be a concern though.
Best Bet Bunbury r6 Sky Duke ; Is a 2 time first up winner who won a trial recently by 9 lengths on a soft track. His race record on wet is a concern but he should be highly competitive in this grade.
Not a day we can bet with confidence . With Magnasonic flying the flag for us I have done the form but suggest small stakes and looking for value.
Belmont r4 Magnasonic ; Last start win and overall form suggest he is as good a chance as any in an open event. The conditions that are expected to deteriorate further are unknown for both favourites , the wide draw could assist or hinder.
Best Value Belmont r6 Secret Deploy ; If we come out smiling with Magnasonic then his form will be franked and his 2 best runs have been on soft tracks. Omen punters love a grey in the wet and on an impossible day he is going well enough to spec each way.
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Best Bet Belmont r4 Kisses From Kelly ; We went with him last start and Antique Miss proved far too good despite our tip having every chance. The map looks identical but this time the favourite loses Pike for an apprentice. In a staying race , especially on a backmarker , that is enough of a carrot to try and turn the tables.
Belmont R7 Petrouchka ; She beat the girls over 2000m and beat most of these comfortably in the Guineas. She is clearly the best winning chance of the day if your willing to take odds on . The Old risk vs reward debate.
Best Roughie Belmont r8 Paddy’s Flyin ; 3/3 at the track & distance , 3/4 on soft. Drawn 1 would of been great last week , who knows this week with the weather but Harvey can do no work behind a hot speed and try and take a split late at 30s . Each way spec.
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Pinjarra r2 Timeless Gem ; Has trialed just as impressive as the favourite and has race experience .
Best Bet Pinjarra 3 Tivacisaurus ; Big raw gelding who has finished off hard from the back at both career starts to date. Short enough on the 7 day back up at just his 3rd career start but the 1800m looks ideal in a thin race. Any on pace bias would be a problem as he will take time to wind up.
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Best Roughie : Belmont r3 Rissoles ; Started 6/4 last start in a maiden and won well. Yes this is much harder but there are still no Jokers Grin’s level horses in it who he raced against 2 starts ago. Good speed engaged here will allow him to sit out the back and hopefully charge home into at least a place at big odds.
Best Bet Belmont r6 Sentimental Hero ; Is 4/6 at Belmont including 1/1 at 1600m and is 3/5 on wet tracks. Effortless win last start , should get a very similar run and carries the same weight with the use of the claim. The fact it’s $5 the field and you can get each way is a big bonus.
Best Each Way Belmont r8 Ghost Who Walks ; Won this race last year and even though he is drawn terrible he will get back and charge home anyway. Trialing the house down.
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Best Bet Belmont r3 Kisses From Kelly ; Should be rock hard fit on the 7 day back up and going for 3 in a row in this distance range. Antique Miss is also flying and on the quick back up. She is jumping up 500m for her first start at a staying trip however so I’m backing Kelly to be too strong late.
Best Each Way Belmont r8 Kings Honour ; Looks a genuine 1000m specialist and is drawn to hopefully be ridden aggressively to hold the front from the other speedsters. Likely to be a wall chasing him late , headed by Stormchaser but he is nice each way odds so hopefully he can at least hang on for a place.
One month in to winter racing and I’m reminded just how hard it is to find winners. I suggest small stakes and like always Please Gamble Responsibly.
Best Bet Bunbury r5 Cherry Can Run ; Finally ended a run of 2nd’s last start to break through this track and distance range. 2nd from that race has won twice since , including yesterday (Saturday grade) . While she’s only won 2 from 30 , this is her sweet spot distance wise while others in the market may be suspect at the end.
Bunbury r6 Let’s Galavhant ; Has been placed to perfection his entire career , earning connections over 800k and just continues to compete , every time they raise the bar. 2nd in the Hyperion over at 50’s , then winning the Strickland at 10s , we are now faced with $2.35 . Granted it’s hard to join in now but the way he hit the line last start it’s hard to see any of his rivals turning the tables barring a savage leader bias.
Broome r4 Deep Point ; Absolutely made speed engaged here , and all of that speed might be paddling the last bit , giving the fav his chance of reeling them in as he has won over 1200m .
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Best Each Way Belmont r7 El Patron ; Was a talented 2yo who lost his way but recent runs indicate he is back on track. Drawn to get a much more economical run than last start where he was “Piked” on the line up the inside after doing a mountain of work .
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Belmont r2 Magnasonic (Place);Two satisfactory trials when not asked for much of an effort have him primed for this first up assignment. He has shown enough at his 2 career starts to be ultra competitive today and if the addition of blinkers have the desired effect then he should be up there contending for a top 3 finish. Jokers Grin looks a very nice type and is clearly hardest to beat hence the main play is a place providing the field remains 8 runners .
Best Bet Belmont r7 Pearly Nugget ; A mare who has only won 2 / 16 but has gone down narrowly both runs this prep and has competed competitively enough in stronger company to suggest she is the one to beat here.
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Falcon Trader ; Ever consistent gelding who has won 6/15 including 2 of his last three. Handles all conditions and he is versatile enough to make full use of the barrier.
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Best Bet Belmont r4 Sunlit Fresco ; First start in maiden grade saw her win well , fighting off 2nd and spacing the rest. While jumping up 3.5kgs into a c1 is never easy , especially for a 3yo , she has raced in harder company previously and considering the 2nd fav is 1/23 she should have the upside to be very competitive.
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Best Bet Bunbury r2 Elle Of A Boom ; Has placed both at the distance and on soft ground . Has only had 6 starts so in a very thin distance maiden that has to stand for something.
Bunbury r4 Sunlit Fresco ; Dropping back from a 2nd in a c1 at career start 2 into a maiden see’s her very well placed to win.
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Belmont r2 Lucky’s Way ; Ran on well over the 1000m last start in this grade and now gets back out to the more suitable 1200m.
Best Each Way Belmont r5 Duchess of Gossip ; Has a sensational track/distance/soft track record and was really good first up to show she has come back well.
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