Weekend Winners

Best Bet Broome r2 Fire The Guard ; Looks a genuine race in 2 with Private Sapling and holds a barrier / map advantage over that galloper .

Belmont r3 Madhi Girl ; Has rediscovered her best on the winter wet tracks over 1000m and is presented with another very similar race going for the hatrick.

Belmont r8 Kervette ; 2/2 at the midweeks since arriving in the state and both wins were very strong late. Form has been franked Wednesday , looks very hard to hold out on the minimum.

Win Multi Paying $19.64 Place $2.65 (Tabtouch)

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Weekend Winners

The Pinjarra track was very poor last week from a punter’s perspective and with this weeks meeting again transferred , It is really a non event. Nothing against the club , they are providing a surface that at least see’s the meeting go ahead . Instead of finding winners I have analyzed a couple of runners that have been good to us recently and rated their chances .

R2 Be Awesome ; It’s recent wet track form is as good as most in this . Considering the $4 fav is a last start maiden winner , the $21 is probably a little disrespectful. Vital the rain has arrived to consider , she needs it wet (3/6 on soft , 2/2 at Pinjarra.

R8 Dirty Chai ; Lining up her Carnarvon dirt form with today’s race is next to impossible however there is no denying how well she’s going for the new stable. Her winning margins have been out of this world , including one trip to Bunbury on a soft track. Not as well weighted , extra 100m drawn 14/14 and will have company trying to cross over , it looks like the bubble may burst . Connections are right to have a crack though , if she does cross she most likely gives cheek at $20 .

Northam Numbers

Best Each Way Northam r7 El Patron ; Hasn’t fired a shot this prep but drops 5kgs coming out of graduation company with the use of a 4kg claimer. I had Climb On Top clearly on top coming from the same form reference and El Patron a place chance so naturally after the scratching we go each way. His Ascot form last prep is good enough , maybe better suited on good tracks , let’s find out.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r2 Zourun Run ; 1100 to 1400 , 54kgs to 59kg’s , 3 weeks between runs , this filly has certainly been set a task however her win last start was too impressive to ignore . Trusting Neville Parnham knows what he’s doing!

Mad Roughie Belmont r5 Squillionaire ; Has a very solid record of 23 starts for 6 wins and 7 placings. Her 1000m record is 6 starts for 3 wins , 2 placings. Soft track stats 4 starts for 2 wins 1 placing. Why is she 100-1 then ? Her trial was lackluster and her 2nd up record is much better than 1st up . When she’s not on song she can really put in a stinker and other times she surprises at odds. The new batch of 3kgs apprentices are cleaning up and from barrier 1 I’m going to waste a couple of bucks chasing the dream.

Best Bet Belmont r6 Triple The Chant ; Broke through at start 5 recently with a soft come from behind victory over 1600m. Had no luck at her previous runs , some by her own doing , some out of her control. Not many horses win c1’s straight after maidens but providing you can make ground as is her racing pattern , she won too easily not to tip as the best bet on the program.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Double

Port Hedland R 1 Sansanee ; 16 starts for 1 2nd and 4 3rds and being asked to take $1.90 ???? First start on the dirt was a close 2nd to Gold Spy with a gap to 3rd. If you followed the tip on him at Carnarvon on Friday then you would understand why we are so keen . He destroyed a much harder field.

Port Hedland R5 Border Control ; 4/4 at Port Hedland , I have him marked considerably shorter than $2.50 to make it 5/5 .

The Double is currently paying $4.75 Tabtouch

Kalgoorlie r3 SRM

Pearly Nugget Top 2 , Magnasonic Top 3. . I have the fav clearly on top and if we are on her back then we should be the only danger and would be bitterly disappointed if we didn’t at least run top 3.

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Weekend Winners

Best Each Way Pinjarra r8 Canny Jack ; A very in n out customer , he’s last two runs have been rippers on soft tracks . A repeat of nearly beating Asphalt just about wins this Heavy will be no problem and would suit him more than most . Trusting him to produce 3 good runs in a row is dangerous but the odds look overs in the suitable conditions , especially top 3.

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Carnarvon Cash

Best Bet Carnarvon r6 Gold Spy ; First start in the state was here over 1000m when he rounded up a maiden field from well back to score . Yes this is considerably stronger but the fav led that day and there was a big gap to third so I can see him improving again out to 1200m and he is yet to miss the money 2nd up .

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Bunbury Best Bets

Best Each Way R6 Like No Other ; Only knows one way , flop out of the barriers and fly home late , usually into 4th or 5th by a narrow margin. Will that suit sand fibre racing ? Doubtful , however he is currently $8.50 / $2.60 and he’s recent form lines are more than good enough considering the narrow beaten margins. With his racing pattern , has to be each way and to maximize profit , heavy place.

Best Multi

R5 Girls On Fire Win : City placed 2yo (3yo as of tomorrow) in a very weak all aged maiden. Should win at a good things price . (currently $1.45)

R6 Like No Other Place : see above

R6 One Punch Win & Place ; Was a frustrating non winner with ability for the previous stable , bolted in on the sand first up for the new stable at start 17. Same distance , half a kilo less , only very slightly stronger opposition makes him very hard to beat.

Multi 1 : Win Place Place $4.67 (Tabtouch)

Multi 2 Win _____ Win $2.90 ( Leave out middle race)

Quaddie

1 2 3 4 5 6 9 10 , 9 , 1 3 4 6 8 12 , 1

$48 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Best Each Way ; Kalgoorlie r2 Luminous Lady ; 3yo filly who made solid ground out wide on debut before peaking late. With natural improvement , perhaps settling closer in the run , I think she can run a race at each way prices. You would have to be crazy to back Heavy Metal at $1.40. Of course she is hard to beat but just because Pike is on doesn’t make a 15 start maiden with head issues a 1.40 pop. Luminous Lady heavy place is a better bet.

R2 Novelties ; 5.​10/3.​5.​10/FD/FD

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 Secret Attire ; Is going very well at moment , both here and in the metro area. Drawn to sit behind the speed and pounce . Hard to bet against your own horse but Magnasonic just can’t draw a barrier. He is ready to win , I just can’t see a scenario where he can settle close enough both to the front and the rail. Horses haven’t made ground out wide all season. If that miraculously changes today then he is not out of it , especially top 3.

SRM Secret Attire Top 2 , Magnasonic Top 4 .

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Weekend Winners

We finally get to Belmont and don’t the other tracks need a rest ! While the track has been given the green light , I for one will not be going too hard tomorrow without evidence of a fair and stable surface. Last Saturday was basically Pike outriding his peers , finding the outside better going from all sorts of different angles . While that is nothing new , we then saw some of his rides start ridiculous unders midweek. He started 1.10 in the Jockey' challenge Thursday and failed to ride a winner. He didn’t do much wrong either , the odds were just putrid. My three tips for today’s meeting are all Pike rides and all three currently have a heavy Pike tax attached . I have created two multi’s to consider , hopefully they pay a bit more closer to jump.

R1 King of Light ; Brilliant winner on debut , coming from last over 1300m . Pretty rare for a 2yo to start at 1300m so the 1400m is almost guaranteed to suit . From the draw you expect he will settle close to last again and at $1.55 on race 1 on a refurbished track , it might not be all plain sailing.

R2 Supernatural ; The question last start was 1400m first time. She won so softly you’d suggest it might turn out to be her pet distance. This is harder but stays on the minimum weight . $2 is rock bottom with Sunny Honey & Cool Memory the main dangers .

R6 Essentric Nature ; His first up run in the state was a a blinder when he put paid to a midweek c3 field back in January. He didn’t beat much that day so I was expecting a much better price in this first up assignment. At around $4 he would be my best bet of the day but everytime I check he is getting shorter and shorter. $2,80 is very short without inside word that he is ready to fire.

Win Win Win multi is currently paying $8.68 on Tabtouch. Win Place Place Is $2.69

I suggest having both , the split % of stake is up to you.

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r6 Decision Maker ; The leap in both class and weight when transitioning from maiden to c1 is usually not punter friendly. In this case however I am making the decision ( get it ! ) based on this horse being a wet tracker and mile plus horse based on it’s win last start in a weak maiden. Setagaya is the clear danger. A 40/60% split is the safest option.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Each Way Pinjarra r5 Be Awesome ; Ran 3rd in a c1 over 1400m on soft , ran last over 1600m on good then won easily over 1600m on soft . Going to use the last win to suggest he is a wet tracker and I’m going to use his breeding to suggest he will get the 2000m. In a typically wide open mid week stayers event , the each way odds appeal as the best bet of the day.

Pinjarra r8 Magical Sequence ; Had him marked as best value for last Saturday when he was reserved for this assignment. Actually preferred that bet at the value now he has been backed into favouritism but you have to trust both the trainer and early money that he is expected to run a big race. Will likely get back so we will need to see horses make ground out wide in the earlier races.

Best Multi

R2 Asphalt Win ; Superior wet tracker who gets conditions to suit but is a good things price.

R5 Be Awesome Place ; See Above

R8 Magical Sequence Place ; See Above , as it’s now favourite , the place goes in this multi .

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Carnarvon r5 Dirty Chai ; In four starts for the new stable , this mare has progressed from a 7 length romp at Dongara , 2.5 at Geraldton , 4.3 here at Carnarvon and finally 2.75 at Bunbury in OMWLY grade. Remarkable progression and add the 12000m record of 6/9 and it’s impossible not to tip her to make it five on the bounce. Getting “Tashed” instead of “Piked’ is becoming a thing , she is in outstanding form and Big Cities is dangerous for that reason , but it’s the only reason we are getting $2.70 .

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Derby r6 Lucky Landing ; Might of discovered the way to ride him by default last start. Jockey couldn’t hold him and rivals couldn’t get near him. Kyra Yuill takes over and it’s only an extra 20m so if he finds the front a similar result can be expected.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Northam r3 Zourun Run ; Ran on well to run 2nd on debut over the 1000m. On that run the extra 100m should suit. Both the equal favourite (Arizona Sky ) and 3rd fav (Who’s Bent) are coming off 1 trial and no trials respectively . That is an ask for 2yo’s over 1100m hence I will always side with the race experience / fitness.

Best Each Way Northam r6 Desert Dancing ; First two starts in WA have been good , ran down a hot favourite last start . Nicely Played is another favourite resuming without a trial. She is quick and will lead them into the straight , hoping there is enough pressure to have her vulnerable late and the each way odds are appealing . Nothing went right for Extreme Love first up , the trial was good and the Durrant stable are having a purple patch , good roughy.

r6 Novelties ; 6.​7.​10/6.​7.​10/1.​2.​6.​7.​10/1.​2.​3.​6.​7.​8.​9.​10

$3 quinella , $18 trifecta $90 first 4

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Weekend Winners

Best Each Way Bunbury r7 Sunny Honey ; Handles all track conditions , especially heavy and that’s important with a lot of rain forecast . Track should be nice and cut up by this stage and he is drawn perfectly to sit midfield and swim down the middle in the home straight. No Brainer is 4/5 , all on wet tracks. Hopefully the race fitness gives us the edge but he is paying enough to save on.

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Carnarvon Cash

Best Bet r3 Shasfa ; No doubt the plan will be to put the foot down from the start and make them eat her dust . If she jumps cleanly and gets there early , it will be a case of getting out the Rosemary beads in the last 100m. Admittedly $2 for a horse who has won 1 / 20 is awfully short , however at least it was on dirt over 1000m.

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r2 Diamonds’n’rubies ; The form out of her last two starts has been franked since and she now looks suited getting out to 1300m . Ankareeda is the danger as the market suggests.

Northam r4 Midnight Star ; Has the 1600m run under her belt and beat everything besides our Best Bet (flex) , comfortably 2nd up. Odds on so no spoils , Diamonds’n’rubies place into Midnight Star win is currently paying around $2.41 . That’s a confident bet.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Let’s Talk ; Think leading over 1200m at a more controlled tempo over the high pressure 1000m straight races is the right set up for him. The drop in class also helps. Happy to bet at the current odds , under $3 and I lose interest.

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Sunday Prayers

Bunbury r2 Buderim ; Bit of a spec on breeding here as it’s a half brother to a former smart sprinter from the same stable. Last trial indicated a level of ability that can take this out and has blinkers added for an extra edge.

Best Bet Bunbury r7 Bucket’s Ridge ; Ran 2nd in the Strickland Stakes on a Heavy 9 last start and is 1/2 at 2200m. Meeting is starting on a soft 7 with wild conditions forecast , if the meeting survives this long , I really expect him to be winning and see $2.30 as value .

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