Best Bet Albany r3 Space Academy ; Soft Ascot c1 winner following competitive runs in the same grade. That form should stack up very well in a country c2.
Best Value Albany r4 Crystalist ; Can unleash a sharp sprint when he gets the right run and besides 1 run at Barker where something wasn’t right , he has been in the finish of all his races lately . $13 each way looks great value.
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Best Each Way Bunbury r2 Lash Out ; This horse ran out of it’s skin last start , trapped off the track the whole way with 60kgs , he just kept coming and split a pretty talented pair. That was only a c1 but 1st and 3rd are better than c1 grade and he has only had 6 starts , plenty of room to keep progressing. Candle Smoke is talented but 1200m is well short of his best distance , Playing Rio is a massive class dropper. Heavy place each way for Lash Out is the way I’m playing it.
Best Bet Bunbury r4 Lillian ; Since narrowly missing in a 1200m country 58+ at Geraldton first up , she has won a 1500m cl3 , 1800 Grad and 2200m 66+ at Ascot. Stays in the same grade and only goes up 0.5 due to the 2kg claim. She simply maps to get the best run in transit and it’s hard to see anything ending the winning streak.
Bunbury r5 Galway Shawl ; Has won 4/6 and all 4 have been at her home track here at Bunbury. Beaten into 2nd last start in a harder race , she had to push into the clear , while the winner had all the momentum down the outside. If Whiting can keep her in the clear today , she looks awfully hard to hold out. Just Walter John can pull hard out in front but he can really run them along and is hard to catch. If leaders are proving difficult to run down then he becomes a serious challenger , especially if Lash Out runs a good race in r2.
Exacta 4 / 6 . Other Novielties Field Field ; Desert Life could ruin the exacta or make the novelties very skinny from the soft draw on the minimum. Her 2 non 1000m runs have been her worst , tomorrow we will find out if it was map related .
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Best Bet Belmont r2 Searchin Times ; Your either in the corner of So Si God turning the tables from the better draw / smaller field or sticking with Searchin Times . I’m sticking , thinking making the run in clear air is still better than looking for a run boxed up. Small fields are tacticul affairs and at least Nottle should have options.
Belmont r5 Tahni Talk ; If he repeats the booming finish from his first up maiden victory when heavily backed , he goes close to toppling the odds on fav in Sentimental Legend . Perhaps he wasn’t quite ready , the winkers might sharpen him up , just felt it wasn’t a run to warrant odds on. They look the two , maybe the obvious quinella can be a saver .
Belmont r6 Cannykev ; On 1000m stats , especially nearly running down Haida Gwai last start , he should be winning. My concern is get back sprinters over 1000m at Belmont are not suited , hence the short odds are a risk vs reward query.
Best SRM Belmont r7 ; No’s 3 & 9 Top 3 ; History Won’t Care couldn’t of done any better from it’s settling position first up. He has a level of ability that can easily win this however he is a hard horse to catch. Swift Talker was ultra impressive on debut and a complete flop 2nd up. He presents first up off a great trial and is the other main winning chance. Clearly the two to put in the quaddie , both finishing top 3 should be paying .
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Best Bet York R5 Bill Selects : 6yo mare in career best form. Won in this grade 4 back and then has placed in 3 consecutive metro/ provincial c3’s . The latest was behind Saturday winner Magical Sequence . Outstanding form for this , if it wasn’t York (quirky track ) with an apprentice on I would be unloading . Still a great chance of a collect .
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Best Each Way Esperance r7 Outspoken Lad ; Has resumed with two 66+ runs in town , beaten 2.29 and 3.88 lengths . Those margins indicate he is well placed to beat the local form which is considerably weaker imo at his peak distance (4 starts 1 w 3 2nds) . Logically Arcadia Night is hardest to beat using the same theory , with CJP coming down for 1 ride. He is 6 weeks between runs and 2.90 vs $7 each way ….. It literally just firmed to $4 on tabtouch while typing. I just took $5.50 on tab.com.au
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Pike Pike Pike
You either call him a Wizard or a Butcher , love him or hate him , Pike is on 10/10 pre post favs as we speak tonight. at an average of 2.59 . The Multi price to ride the card is $9715 , the actual odds of that happening is much bigger however I do have several of the 10 on top so picking the right ones to multi up is the task we are left with . Throw in some quaddies and novelties banking on a few and there is still good money to be made , take him on successfully and you can retire!
Trixie : A trixie takes the 3 doubles and 1 treble combination for equal stakes. At these current prices , 2/3 will be money back / tiny profit while all 3 will be a decent collect. I use 365 which allows you to combine the 3 separate boost odds combined , if you wait til race day it also includes drift protector however I’m concerned they will firm even more overnight. I’ll leave that decision up to you.
Race 4 Wonderfully Made (1.70-1.83) ; We kick off with the shortest of the 10 who is 2/2 this campaign and I’m tipping this run will continue right through and include the Oaks. She beat up extremely limited c1 horses last start but it was literally a barrier trial. She again gets it too easy close to the speed for anything to run past her.
Race 7 Magical Sequence ( 2.20 -2.40 ) ; Has won 3/4 this prep and the one time she lost was the only time Pike wasn’t on. While 1400m with 59kgs might be a query , think she gets too soft a run in this grade to be too concerned. If something does run her down it might be Later Alligator who is racing well and is the Quinella / Exacta horse.
Race 9 Hubble’s Dragon ( 2.00 - 2.20) 3yo with upside , working his way through the grades . His last start was a solid 2nd in the Magic Millions 3yo behind the very smart Twisted Steel . 4th in that race was Champagne Crusader and that filly made light work of C3 opposition on Wednesday. Should get a lovely , soft run just behind Kelvinator and take him when Pike presses the button , leaving Hey Pino & Macciateau to try and run him down.
Novelties : 7 , 5 8 9 12 , s2 , s2 . If we get to r9 and we have a lot riding on the Dragon winning we can consider going all ways for insurance.
Early Quaddie (r3-6 ) 3 , 2 , 2 3 5 6 8 10 11 12 , 3 4 5 . $24 / 100%
Quaddie (r7-10 ) 3 , 2 3 , 7 , Field . $20 / 100%
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Best Value Bunbury r6 Grandad’s Addiction ; Won a 1400m Bunbury maiden first up last prep, beating a short priced favourite by over 2 lengths. Presents first up same track & distance in a c1. $23 / $4.60 is juicy enough to see if he can repeat .
Best Bet Pinjarra r3 Batista ; Debut 3rd in a 3yo 0MW , dropping in weight to a maiden with barrier 1 , looks an ideal set up . I honestly expected him to open a short priced favourite with Wynn Las Vegas drawing poorly. He is 1.95 out to 2.35 , Batista is 7 into 4.80. Always respect the market but I still think it’s odd.
Best Quinella Pinjarra r5 No’s 5 & 6 ; Just Walter John looked home last start before he tired late . Perhaps went too hard out in front. If he can control it better today he is a massive chance of going all the way this time. He will have Gangster Goddess on his tail however. Although the form didn’t stack up yesterday , he still had to take a narrow run and sprint sharply over 1000m to score first up. Kept changing my mind on which one wins so will go the obvious quinella instaed.
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Best Bet Ascot r4 Bohemian Diamond ; We know she is dynamite first up and she won as she liked 4 weeks ago this track & trip. Looking through the crystal ball , you would imagine they have kept her as fresh as possible in the 4 weeks in between to replicate .
Exacta 5 , 6 . Rolling Ruler’s best runs in his career so far are when he gets back and savages the line. From barrier 1 I just cant see him getting the run in time to run Diamond down . The race lacks serious depth behind these two and I’m keen on the mare to beat the gelding.
Albany r2 Flick The Switch
Exacta 2 , 1
; Not much between her and Storm Commander , they clearly stand out from the rest. Mother and daughter Faithful are very hard to beat at Albany.
Best Bet r5 Buster’s Girl ; Hoping she can find the front for the 4kg claiming apprentice . Under that scenario I think she can hold the fav Call Time off , like she did on the 31st Jan. Call Time won last week but that was 1300m.
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Belmont r6 Luna Ascending & Searchin Times ; Luna is the map horse , coming off a dominant win in a maiden . Used it’s good barrier to advantage on that occasion and draws best here to repeat. Searchin is a well related filly who despite racing very green , showed she has inherited the family ability last start. They both look over the odds around $6 - $7 range so we can back both to win with equal units.
SRM 1 4 10 All Top 4 ; So Si God won a 3yo OMWLY on debut and now presents as fav in a c1. Clearly hardest to beat.
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Best Bet Ascot r6 Playin It Sweet ; She has won 6/ 11 including a few at listed level and yet to miss top 3 in her career. Under the set weight and penalties she gets in with 56kgs against a mixture of c2/1 and maidens . She has won over 1400m and is out of Playing God so 1500m shouldn’t pose a problem. There are a few odds on favs earlier in the program who look very hard to beat but have way more things against them such as wide barriers and weight so the rapidly disappearing black figures seem generous. I suggest we get on now .
SRM No 1 Top 2 , No 7 Top 4 , Think Naughty Lord is the one at odds to include , looking for extra ground from a good draw and solid enough form for a $20 chance.
Novelties 1 , to beat 2 5 7 10 . Perhaps a small percentage boxed aswell .
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Track Watch : Pinjarra has favored on pace more often than not in recent times. I am tipping on a fair track scenario but as always , the evidence of the early races will effect confidence as the day goes on .
Pinjarra r2 True Player ; 2/2 2nd up both at today’s 1600m with Pike in the saddle and he clearly prefers dry tracks. Wary of Ex Williams horses at moment , the results haven’t been great but Pike sticks in a typically open Westpeed Platinum Saturday race. * Will likely get back and race 2 is too early to know an obvious pattern so we will just have to trust Pike .
Pinjarra r6 Galway Shaw ; Has been expertly placed to win 4/5 and now gets in a winnable 80k Saturday race with 54.5kgs. Hoping a horse like Pingers (51kgs) tries to run them ragged which will allow her to use her sharp turn of foot from a midfield position. * Looks enough speed to suit , this time we will have evidence to see if they are making any ground at all.
Best Quinella / SRM Pinjarra r7 No’s 8 & 9 Top 2 No 13 Top 4.
Thereallsisters & Maria Lucia have the form on the board and the draws to fight out the finish . Yamanex made good ground on debut and can save every inch from barrier 1.
Best Bet Pinjarra r8 Twisted Steel ; Although his 2/2 2yo wins were in winter , he still created a big impression on the clock. His 3yo spring was good first up behind an exceptional filly and a forgive from a wide draw. First up he was ridden quietly and then 2nd up he was ridden like the best horse and bounced back with a dominant win. Has a class edge on most of these and Heeza Phoenix is drawn extremely wide. Very Hard to beat. * Expect him to be ridden aggressively , outside leader at worst.
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Best Bet Belmont r1 Sharpassa ; She is sharp and she’s drawn to dictate from the front. From there it will take a big sustained sprint to run her down. Punters connected to Fernie’s stable believe Gangster Goddess will do so with that filly annihilated into odds on in early betting. Better odds for us hopefully.
Pike Multi : After taking him on , riding the odds on pop in r1 , I then change teams and back him in to ride a treble on short priced favourites ! Can he go 1/4 and rub my face in it ? time will tell .
Race 2 Cinque Steele ; Trials indicate this expensive yearling has a level of ability that should be far too good for her limited opposition , unless one of the other unraced runners have been hiding at trials. $1.65 for a horse on debut is still a risk.
Race 3 Excess Baggage ; Will find this considerably easier than her first up run in the Breeders Plate where she was still only beaten 2.5 from a mile off them. She will get back again from the wide draw so we need a fair track that you can make ground . Was my best bet at $2.15 this morning but I wasn’t quick enough.
Race 5 Wonderfully Made ; She smoked a 3YO 0MWLY first up over 1400m and drops in grade to a thin c1 over 1600m .If we get to this last leg , I’m supremely confident she will justify the $1,60 and take us to the payout Que.
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Best Each Way Mt Barker r3 Secret Stones ; Jumped from barrier 11 this track and distance and brought up back to back victories . Draws softer today and each way in a field of 8 seems generous.
Best SRM 3 4 6 all top 4. : I have doubts on the fav Vomo Island running the 1300m out strong with 61.5kgs and Flying South seems to be racing below his best . Both Imposing Brook & Gingerquest are racing consistently well therefore the three of them only have to beat 1 of the favs and the roughies home to collect .
Best Bet Mt Barker r4 Lordgivemestrength ; Forget last start when wide and back from the bad gate and go off today’s likely map where he should park right behind the speed, Polynova should have to work over to cross and seems to always be vulnerable late and while anything from the Weinert stable deserves upmost respect , Sky God’s form doesn’t warrant $3 favouritism. Good race to shop around and use any boosts you might have and then potentially lay off In The Run on Betfair.
Two Bet Strategy Mt Barker r6 What A Prince & Mister Popcorn ; The weights of this year’s cup indicate Prince is the clear class runner with 60.5kgs . Last start he led over 1900m and bolted in with 62.5kgs and will have no problems with the extra 100m. If Mister Popcorn can catch them napping again with his custom mid race move then he will be hard to peg back with only 54kgs. They are both trading over $4 so we can make profit with equal stakes on both. Duchee’s Demerit doesn’t have the same class as Prince but is nicely weighted on 54.5 and is the other main chance. All to run top 4 (no’s 1 5 7 ) is another SRM to consider.
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Best Bet Ascot r1 Just Walter John ; Did too much work first up but still only got run down by the stablemate who had a better run. Found the front in a weak maiden 2nd up and smoked them at the short odds. Like the horse and only has 5 horses to contend with for his graduation to Saturday company .
Best Place Bet Ascot r7 Camera Action ; For those who follow the tips regularly , you’d be aware this horse has been costly. I can’t put to much blame on the horse however , the mare has raced without luck . Top senior rider goes on for a red hot stable , one more roll of the dice. She does get back in her races and doesn’t map particularly well here hence I suggest 90% place.
R7 Box Trifecta / First 4 ; 3 5 6 8 ; Platinum Shot looks the other value in the race , hopefully both can add value to the novelties.
In The Run Bet Ascot r5 Triple The Chant ; If Camera Action has been costly then this mare has been a complete trainwreck. Again though , the luck in running has been non existent. She has contributed to this by jumping poorly and I’m convinced she’s much better suited to Belmont. Untried at 1800m , up to 59kgs and under each way odds , I thought instead of having a mental health bet we could discuss in the run betting on betfair. This way we can see how she jumps and is traveling before deciding to back her or not. I will try and do a live video during the race on Instagram if you would like to learn more about it.
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Best Bet Bunbury r6 Talkanco ; She’s 2/3 first up and she has raced exclusively in top company with great success. She will need a fair track from the draw , if their making ground down the middle then she will be storming over the top of them. If it’s an on pace day then this tip goes in the bin.
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Best Bet Ascot r7 Famous Dain ; Was mad keen on the equal fav Silver Eye who is now scratched . Im not as confident in Dain as I was in Silver but as long as Bruce Almighty keeps Battle Commander honest up front then he should be finishing over the top of them.
Best Value Ascot r8 Desennea ; $23 Desennea is a silly price. Hit the line ok in limited room behind Silver Eye last start and this is considerably easier. Hasn’t won since July 24 but this is the most suitable race he has seen for some time.
Best Speed Map Esperance r4 Meat Pie Artie ; Missed the start hopelessly at first start in the state , quickly making amends with back to back victories next two. Jumps from Cl2 to 5 however that’s not as hard in the country and drops 2kgs. Equal fav Zadows Landing is drawn awkwardly and coming back 300m which should mean Artie has a decent head start , providing he jumps cleanly. From this position we are in a great position to either lay off in the run (Betfair) or ride him home to the payout Que.
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Best Bet Ascot r7 Silver Eye ; Beat equal fav and fellow Oakland Park runner Famous Dain two starts ago over 1400m. Some will side with Dain due to the booking of Pike and 1.5kg weight swing , I am clearly in Silver’s corner on the basis he was stronger on the line and is a better horse.
Best Value Ascot r8 Desennea ; If I’m right about Silver Eye in the previous then $19 Desennea is a silly price. Hit the line ok in limited room behind that galloper last start and this is considerably easier. Hasn’t won since July 24 but this is the most suitable race he has seen for some time.
Best Speed Map Esperance r4 Meat Pie Artie ; Missed the start hopelessly at first start in the state , quickly making amends with back to back victories next two. Jumps from Cl2 to 5 however that’s not as hard in the country and drops 2kgs. Equal fav Zadows Landing is drawn awkwardly and coming back 300m which should mean Artie has a decent head start , providing he jumps cleanly. From this position we are in a great position to either lay off in the run (Betfair) or ride him home to the payout Que.
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Best Bet r3 Oxbridge ; When this horse is on song , he is simply electric at Albany , a great course to run them into the ground over the short course. That’s what he did in this grade mid December and he carried 63kgs that day so I’m not sure 64 will stop him. At around $4.20 I’m willing to label it a best bet in terms of value .
Best Each Way r5 Outlaw Music ; Led all the way this track & distance last start , holding out today’s fav Cruise To Rio in the process . Likely to find the top again so why there is such a discrepancy in price is baffling. Concede Rio can settle closer from the inside but the each way odds are more appealing .
SRM No’s 2 6 7 All Top 4 : Lady Coco looks the other major winning chance , just doesn’t map as well as the other two.
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