Spring 2026 is here and that means the stars of the turf are back in action. Futures betting is fraught with danger , but with the high risk can come some serious rewards . There are two main types of markets with 1 very important difference. Pre Noms & All In . If the market is Pre Noms and your horse doesn’t end up nominating for the race your stake is refunded. These markets are offered a long way out of the major features and most of the smaller lead up feature races when noms are much closer to the race date. All IN means you lose your stake under all circumstances for non starters . Here are some of my methods to the madness when scouring the markets.
Probability of starting ; Races like the Caulfield & Melbourne Cups , Cox Plate are full of both International and local horses that have has much likelihood of turning up on raceday as me winning The Australian Open tennis title. The bookies love including them , knowing all too well that they won’t even be getting on the plane. Local Superstars like Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi will appear in nearly every market regardless if they are even seriously considering it. Then for the dreamers and big owners who nominate every horse they own you have to factor in the horses chances of even qualifying .
Odds ; Generally speaking , we are looking for horses who pass step 1 above who are at big prices. Will Ka Ying Rising win the Everest ? Very likely , will he start 1.50 or even run on a heavy track ? does he get injured at trackwork or any lead up runs ? This can happen to any horse but we can handle blowing $10 on something between 50-100s over doing hard earned dollars waiting for a 50% return. Another thing to consider is your position should your runner make the final field. I have $10 @ $61 on Zakouma in this years Melbourne Cup , plus a few wild bonus bet multi’s with AFL , Tennis and racing legs for a big collect. If I get him to face the starter on the 1st Tues of November then I could possibly be in a position to lay the horse at much shorter odds on Betfair for guaranteed profit. For the sake of $10 I will be riding, but bigger bets or live mult’s can be worth good coin no matter what the result of the race.
Local (Yallingup) Owner / Breeder Trevor Delroy loves his stayers and has a genuine hope in this years Melbourne Cup with Zakouma the wizard William Pike booked to ride. Lightly raced 6yo who is bred to stay all day and possesses a sharp turn of foot at the end of his races , with wins between 1600-2800m , the perfect attributes for Australia’s ultimate 2 mile test. Has won on all surfaces from good to heavy .
ZAKOUMA $26 (All In) ; While not in the preferred $50 + range , this still represents good value for the fact that he won a ballot free race in May . This means he only has to stay fit and healthy until race day and he takes his place . Trainer Graham Begg can concentrate on getting him to peak on the day without copping weight penalties trying to qualify. Saturday’s first up run was everything you would like to see. Allowed to settle last , Pike never left the rail and he worked home beautifully in the home straight , finishing midfield and in front of other cup hopefuls without being asked to do so.
Cosmic Crusader $9 Makybe Diva Stakes $3.25 Underwood Stakes (pre noms) $15 Cox Plate (All In)
None of these options are a suggested bet , I am just keen to follow the progress of WA’s N1 flag bearer throughout the spring. Out of the three options at least the $15 in the Cox Plate will likely shorten if he makes it that far into the spring , especially if he wins one on the way or a couple at the top of betting don’t end up there. The barrier killed his chances on the Weekend in the Memsie Stakes , to still run 3rd against the pattern was enormous and he can definitely be very competitive in whatever option connections take , there is just no value in guessing where and who it will be against in the current futures markets.