Saturday's Bookie Bashers

Best Bet Ascot r6 Key To Fame; Conditions expected to suit leaders today and this one loves to lead.  Had to breeze last start and only run down late.  Out to 1400m and drawn in, expected to get it pretty soft out front and prove very hard to run down.

Following both r3 Carocapo and r4 Sasso Circus who LDR have tipped successfully in the past.  Carocapo will be tough to beat if finds front and Sasso's Circus looks well placed after going close last start however both look slightly under the odds at this stage.

Gold Coast r5 Egyptian Symbol;  Was unlucky (slaughtered by jockey) on Millions day last year and looks perfectly placed here for what looks like a huge day for trainer Bjorn Baker.  He also has the boom sprinter Winning Rupert in r7 and if you like backing odds on fav's the 1.60 looks more than reasonable.

Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Sandown r5 Stone Warrior; Ran a very nice third in a bm70 at Flemington last start, dropping back to 64 grade at Sandown sees it hard to beat.

Sandown r8 Fast Tycoon; Is always right in the market, has a win and 2nd at two starts here and will fight out the finish again.

Saturday Selections

Best Bet Pinjarra r5 Celebrity Dream; Back on the Pike bandwagon, I rate this sprinter much higher than today's opposition, short but sweet.

Pinjarra r7 Sasso's Circus; Got the money as our best bet last start ears pricked and no reason it can't repeat the dose for Pike again and LDR trainer Jason Miller.

Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Geraldton r4 Danehill Matilda; Was born to run at Geraldton with a record of 5 starts at track for 3 wins and a second.  Looks the goods,  use the boost options with various operaters.

End the Year with a BANG

Best Bet Ascot r3 Carocapo; Was well supported on debut and showed great speed and got the job done.  Expected to find front again and prove very hard to run down.

Ascot r4 Cosmic Storm; Looks the short multi anchor horse for the day, winning two legs of this mares series and was ridden too close other leg.  As long as Pike gets it off the fence from barrier one in time it should finish over the top of them.

Ascot r6 Three Votes; Has a good record of 3 wins from 6 starts.  Has been taught to take a sit at the trials and it seems to have worked, winning it's latest with a blistering turn of foot.

 Ascot r7 Volkoff; The pace looks frantic in this and Volkoff can sit just off them and sprint over the top. One of the bets of the day.

Eagle Farm r8 Ocean Embers; This mare is unbeaten first up.  Drawn the carpark but comes from last with an absolute booming finish anyway and at $10 looks the clear value bet of the day.

Check the homepage at Lucky Duck Racing for the Perth Cup Preview.  Have a great end to 2016 and see you next year!!

Couch Cricket and Winners

Best Bet andwick r6 Malice; roke a two year drought last start but this race is no harder and carries same weight.  Think we might get a little better than $3 if patient.

Santa's Sack Of Winners

Best Bet: Ascot r7 Star Exhibit; ATA Stakes is the final lead up to the Perth Cup and Star Exhibit put the writing on the wall last start, looming up to challenge Kia Ora Koutou before peaking late.  That was it's first go at a trip and the winner is my early cup tip.

Ascot r 3 Travellin; Beat key rival last start, good track and distance stats, no star by any means but always tries his heart out and $5 looks value.

Sandown r6; Rewarding Effort: Racing very consistently and ready for Saturday mission.  Even money is rock bottom however.

Hot Tip For a Hot Day

Best Bet Ascot r7 Tonkatuff; Finally won his maiden last start, winning easily against General Husson who bolted in next start and then won the first today at $2.40.  Why we are getting $7.50 each way I don't know but unless it has lost a leg that seems very generous.  Has always shown enough to have more upside than most of these.

Sunday Session Cash.

Best Bet Bunbury r4 Hakuna Matata; Giving him one last chance.  3rd up out to a suitable trip if he doesn't beat this maiden field then our relationship is over.  Surely today's his day!

Saturday Sack Fillers

Best Bet Flemington r5 Boom Time; Ex WA galloper that ran 3rd behind Delicacy in the Derby.  The form of that race is strong, he is racing in red hot form this time in and has a lot of upside compared to the others.

Best ValueAscot r7 Respondent; A former WA Derby winner who is finally coming back to his best form, breaking a long drought last start.  I rate him along with Kia Ora Koutou (3rd in same race) as my leading Perth Cup chances so $13 today looks outstanding each way value.  Odds on for the fav Perfect Reflection looks way unders, stepping up in trip for first time.  Tradesman at $8 worth a saver on too.

Ascot r7 first four   2 7 14, S1, 1 2 5 6 7 8 10 14 , S3.

Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Sasso's Circus; dropping back from Saturday grade, great track and distance record and Pike jumping on. The 59kgs is only concern.

Warwick Farm r3 Peaceful Sea; Be on me next time run first up, Bowman on and up to 1400m suits.

Both currently around $2.30 so hopefully a dbl to pay for some christmas cheer.

Peking Duck Winning Recipe

Today is International Day at Sha Tin, Hong Kong a must for bucket lists of racegoers.  While local and Japanese horses dominate the feature markets, plenty of Aussie jockeys and a couple of runners in Takedown and Rebel Dane in the sprint give us true blues something to cheer for.

R5 ; Our sprinters have always been rated very highly on the world stage as other countries focus on middle distance to staying horses.  While not one of our very best, Takedown comes from winning Perth's group one Winterbottom Stakes and looks a good each way bet.  He races on speed and tough which should suit.  There is no clear standout this year as fav Lucky Bubbles was beaten convincingly by expat Notlistentome in the lead up, I believe Takedown's Aus Form to be stronger.

Pinjarra r9 Hakuna Matata; closer to home we are waiting for the Lucky last.  Our selection is currently massive value at $17.  He absolutely flew home first up, no match for the odds on favourite but beat everything else easily, coming from last.  Back 100m 2nd up is a concern given he is a stayer but look for him charging late once again.  Today's Odds on fav Macavity (nicknamed phil) is very untrustworthy for mine, guilty of burning punters on many occasions.  Stack your bet towards the place and I'm confident we will get a result.

Smoking Hot Saturday Tips

Best Bet Ascot r4 Chocolate Holic; Disappointing only five runners accepted for a group 3 but competitive race all the same.  While not suited at WFA, 1400m is it's favourite distance and Pike back on makes the son of Blackfriars top pick.

Best Each Way Ascot r6 First Affair; Big win last start coming from miles back.  Down to 54kg after the claim for it's first try at 1800m in an open race, $6.50 looks good value.  Trained by LDR Trainer Jason Miller.

Best Quinella ascot r7 Dark Alert(4) / Kia Ora Koutou (9), both horses heading towards the Perth Cup placed behind Respondent last start who isn't here.  Kia another talented son of Blackfriars trained by Jason Miller.

Shares still available in LDR'S own Blackfriar's 2yo with Jason Miller, priced for entry level, Bred for success, get in touch for details.

Hot to Trot Friday

A sensational night of Harness racing including The Interdominion Final and Golden Nugget on a warm Summer's night.  I encourage Perth Ducks to get to Gloucester Park and here are some winners to pay for a good night.

R3 Master Jaxon; In sparkling form going for four in a row, can do work and still finish off or swoop depending on race pattern.  Very hard to hold out.

R5 Ideal Alice; Very competitive field with Alice being the poorest drawn of the main chances.  As a result you can get $13 which in my humble is overs for a horse that has matched it with our open class horses. Each way even heavy on the place.

R8 Run Oneover; Will be onspeed hopefully leading and making it very hard to run down.  Tabtouch account holders, the $50 cash back for 2nd and 3rd looks perfect.  For full race analysis check out homepage blog.

First 4 ; 2 9, 1 2 5 9 10, s2, fld.

Quaddie (r5-8) 1, 1 4 5, 1 4 7 8, 2 9

R9 Sunnys Little Whiz; Cardigan Boko is the states best trotter but Sunny is the only one that has beaten him home.  Tonight's handicap conditions see Sunny (10m) gain a 30m headstart on Cardigan (40m).  The current odds of $3 vs $1.70 is wrong in my opinion and with a safe getaway I'm tipping the upset.  Standing start Trotters however prevent you from having a real crack.

Wednesday Winners

Ascot r2 Handled.  On a very tough day Australia wide this selection put in a real eye catcher last start, flashing home from well back for 2nd behind an inform horse.  Distance a query but at $7.50 eway in a field of 8, gets the nod from Lucky Duck.

Saturday Selections

Best Bet ; Morphettville r2 Astrolobe, Like backing Melbourne form in Adelaide.  This one has solid enough form and was scratched from a winnable race this week to cross the border which shows stable confidence

Very slim pickings today so I will talk about the punting dilemma of whether to back up on horses that have let you down.

pr4 Chin Strap; The Positive is Damien Oliver replacing Jake Casey.  That should equal massive improvement.  $8.50 for a maiden in a listed race however looks unders and I'll be risking.

pr7 Jestajingle; Punters are still scratching their heads and fuming at Peter Hall's decision to race 3 and 4 wide on speed last start over 1200m on a swooper.  He has been riding very poorly for a while now and the fact that he rides again with the rise in distance to 1400m which is a query means I'll be risking.

Here's hoping Murphy's law doesn't strike again.

Inters Night 3 and Mooney Valley Night Racing

Best Bet Mooney Valley R3 Four Carat; Has been racing consistently in much stronger races than this, a last start 4th in the Sandown Cup behind Melbourne Cup 4th placegetter Qewy over 3200m.  Pays for it with sharp rise in weight but $2.70 vs $1.85 for Bullish Stock who ran 3rd in a BM78 last start.

Inters Heat 7

Series favourite Hectorjayjay goes around at prohibitive odds again and has the speed to cross and lead all the way again.  One warning tonight is no driver will want to cook there horse in their third run in a week one week before the final, especially if they already have enough points to qualify.  Polemarker John of Arc has been very brave from tough draws and gets his chance to test the favourite.  Suggested Bet Quinella 1 & 5 .

Heat 8 Well the mocca worked again Tuesday when the unbeatable Lennytheshark was poorly driven and only managed 4th.  Draws the pole tonight but has a very fast beginner drawn next door.  With no backline however leaders back would be perfect spot for all so the 2 gets it if desires.  If crossed early will probably come straight off and sit outside lead or have a crack to get it back.  Either way should redeem.  Suggested bet First four 1, 2 3 4 8, s2, s2.

Heat 9 Wide open as no Hector or Lenny involved with tactics so important and hard to read.  A few of these need maximum points to secure a runin final.  Smolda is the favourite, he is pretty one dimensional in that if he doesn't get the front he will keep trucking along in the breeze and try and out stay them.  Tonight's increase in distance suits but too skinny quote for mine.  Simply Susational has the speed to lead from one which at Gloucester Park is a huge advantage.  Bling it On is in career best form now they drive him with a sit.  If he gets the right run he is very dangerous.  Beaudiene Boaz is talented enough but has a very tricky draw to overcome.  Suggested Bet , Bling itOn each way.

Quaddie (r5-8)  1 2, 1, 1 3 6 7, 1 2 cost $16 / unit

Best Bet R5 Ideal Alice ; Usually races in open company and from barrier one over 2100m should lead all the way.  The presence of NZ mare A Piccadilly Princess, also very talented and equal fav tonight means we get a backable price.

Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Bunbury race 9 Black Freda; Blackfriars mare tasted defeat for the first time last start, taking a day to wind up and running on into 2nd.  Fitter for the run, can easily atone today in the hopefully lucky last.  We sure are due for some and a decent ride.

Canterbury race 5 Sugar Bay Leonard; racing well this campaign with strong form lines.  Has the ability and racing pattern to dominate this race.  Slight concern is the jockey change to Josh "below" Parr.

Inters Round 2

The First round of heats went to script with all favs winning.  There since has been numerous scratchings and the two Victorian stablemates Lennytheshark and Hectorjayjay dominating betting both tonight and the series.

Tonight Bunbury hosts 3 heats, for some reason again over the 2100m, I believe 1700m would of been more interesting however it is what it is.

Heat 4; No Hector or Lenny makes it both the weakest and open heat.  To me it comes down to who leads.  If Run Oneover gets there first it takes a stack of beating.  If Freyberg holds up it's anybodies race.  While Our Jimmy Johnstone was dissapointing Friday it will get a very soft run tonight and might be place value.

Heat 5 ; Hectorjayjay is $1.14 and drawn for a stroll in the park (2).  No one will want to take him on and earn no points for the final. Phoenix Warrior is paying $9.50 a place in a field of 8.

Heat 6; Lennytheshark is currently $1.70 due to the tricky draw of inside the back line.  In my opinion he is simply way too good regardless and this is a great price if you like backing short price fav's especially with the boost options with some bookies.

Bunbury Quaddie ; R5-8 Not much value but for a bit of fun interest this quaddie looks a moral.

2, 8, 1 2 3, 1 3 4 5.  @ $12 a unit lets hope it pays more than $12 !!!!

Saturday Standout

Lucky Duck Going All In on our one best bet today.

Ascot Race 4 Lenience; If I'm tipping State Solicitor (check main blog) in the Winterbottom then how could I possibly not like Lenience.  Took that galloper the entire straight last start to reel in Lenience over same distance.  No such opposition today and very confident it can lead all the way.