Weekend Winners

Best Bet Rosehill r5 Reelem In Ruby; Yet to miss a place in 6 starts and just failed to reel in the winner last start when that galloper got a dream inside run and pinched a break. Was strong to the line however and maps to get a gun stalking run.

Rosehill r8 Asterius; Was very unlucky first up and with the extra 100m will be hard to hold out .

Morphetville r1 Andrea Mantegna; Out of the three chances it looks more progressive than Exalted Lightning and gets 5.5kgs on Mr One Eleven who has to back up after a very tough run where it was outclassed in much tougher.

Morphetville r4 Meli Melo; Guarenteed to get the trip and ran 3rd in much tougher race last start. Record indicates a soft track would be highly desirable.

Doomben r8 Princess Jenni; Having a faultless prep and the strength of the Qld lead up races is questionable.

Belmont r8 Leading Girl; Hard not to like on it’s 3yo form behind two star fillies and 2nd to very smart sprinter first up. If it’s handles the jump from 1200 to 1600 2nd up then it wins.

Belmont Quaddie (r5-8); field, 5, field, 11 $154 for 100%

Betfair/Multi

Belmont r6 Galaxy Star; Should be winx odds in my opinion. Small field no risks will be taken this time and she will zap them from last down the outside in clear running.

with Ruby & Leading Girl $7.78

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Sale r6 Pakaya Prince; Genuine wet tracker who only faded late first up and has won 2nd up 3 times.

Sale r5 Tata Da Goose; Still needs to make the final field but if she does she is dropping in grade and won this track and distance two back. Wet no problem. Each Way.

Warwick Farm r1 Sedgemoor; Looks to get a soft lead on paper and just missed first up.

Warwick Farm r5 Eighteen Carrot; Finished 1 length 2nd to Fun Fact when seven weeks between runs. Winner then won group 3 in Brisbane Saturday. In a wide open race $12/ $3.70 looks a good each way bet.

Warwick Farm r7 Love My Cashews; Unbeaten mare who bolted in at start 2 over 1200m. This is harder but drawn to get a lovely run and has the ability to be right in the finish.

Multi/Betfair *short priced favs where the odds look acceptable

Ipswich r5 Guise

Belmont r3 Showmanship

Belmont r7 Devoted Star

$5.97 for treble

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Sandown r4 Gold Medals; Has rock hard race fitness advantage over fav and is usually a faultless jumper.

Sunshine Coast r7 Hold the Line; Only beaten 2.2 on only try wet in much stronger grade.

Multi/Betfair

Nowra r1 Brix

Muswellbrook r1 Margie Bee

with Gold Medals $7.87 Hold the Line $5.90 both $17.71

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r8 The Velvet King; Led over 1200m first up and only run down late by smart sprinter who is flying and was race fit. Much better suited at 1400m and is the one to catch. We will be looking over our shoulder late however for first upper Mystery Miss. She has an unbelievable turn of foot on her but is first up from a long spell / serious injury.

Belmont r2 Money Maher; Has a distinct class advantage here , demonstrated by his effortless win first up. Was coming back from a bad tendon injury so as long as he is not flat 2nd up he has them covered.

Belmont r3 Catherine Wheel; Only defeat so far was to the very quick Dance Machine. May have to do some work from the gate but like her back to the 1000m.

Belmont r5 Not To Be Mist; Seems to win it’s races effortlessly in first gear. This is a step up but can stalk the other undefeated horse Flower Of War and run over the top.

Belmont Early Quaddie (r1-4); 1 2 3 4 9, 4, 3, 7. $5 for 100%.

Belmont Quaddie (r5-8); 2, 1 2 3 4 5 8 9 11 12 13 14 15, 1 2 6 7, 6 $48 for 100%

Flemington r1 Sebrakate; Stretched the neck of Slipper winner in previous prep and jumped out brilliantly for return.

Flemington r7 Swift Sis; Would be more confident with Damian Lane on but can’t let her go around at massive prices down the Flemington straight where her last two wins were explosive. Each Way.

Randwick r3 Nobu; Queensland Derby favourite who’s win last start was breathtaking. If it reproduces that turn of foot up in the weights then look out Queensland !

Eagle Farm r4 Quilista ; She was brutal from the front last week. If she can back up she will take no end of catching.

Eagle Farm r7 The Candy Man; This horse has put a picket fence together in easier grade on heavy ground with a big finish. Good ground a query but will be fit and wont know himself with 54kgs. Each Way.

Morphetville r3 Jay Jay D’ar ; It’s Flemington form looks stronger than the locals.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet York r6 Starthefriar; Putting it on the line by tipping our own horse as the bet of the day. Loves York (2/2) including a win over this distance first up and is set to peak 3rd up. The obvious danger in Threesun has to lump 60kg hence giving us 2.5kgs. Check feature post on homepage for novelties.

York Quaddie (r5-8); 3 4 6 , 3, 2 4 5 8, 1 2 4 5 6 10 11. $84 for 100%

Hawkesbury r5 Breaking Cover; It’s debut 2nd indicated the step up in distance will be ideal. Always respect locally trained horses at the provincials!

Pakenham r5 Bianconi Magic; Has won 3/4 including barnstorming win here on the synthetic first up. Lovely use of claim, very hard to hold out.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Pinjarra r1 Eye of the Day; Last start 3rd was in stronger grade when only run over late. Drawn the right side to be on pace and very hard to get past.

Pinjarra r9 Driftstar; This horse is extremely volatile and seems to be hard to handle which makes the apprentice booking a concern. If he can jump well and lead without burning too much petrol he should take no end of catching. If he doesn’t lead or is taken on then his chances are next to none. Banking on the first scenario.

Pinjarra Quaddie (r6-9); 2 4 5 6 10 11 12, 7, 3 4 7 9 10 11 12 , 3 .* (11 12). $49 for 100% ($98 for 100%)

I suggest two quaddies with a smaller percentage with the back up runners in last leg.

Canterbury r2 Maddi Rocks; I’m a sucker for 2yo’s with race experience over first starters and this one fits the bill. The winner from her own debut 2nd has since run well.

Multi/Betfair

Pinjarra r7 Western Pride ; It’s hard for me because we have a runner in the race but looks a clear standout on debut win. Bred to get a trip so step up in trip looks perfect. For novelties and info on our very own Atomize see feature post on homepage.

With Eye & Maddi win $8.73

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Pelican Pick; A 2nd to our very own STARTTHHEFRIAR followed up by a dominant win at Northam should be good enough for this race.

Bendigo r 6 Tigeen ; Strong winner against mares no worse than these last start. Each Way.

Bendigo Quaddie (r5-8) 3, 9, 1 3 5 9 11 12 , field $60 for 100%

Multi/Betfair

Casterton r3 Garbo ; The Warnambool carnival form keeps producing winners, even the maiden races .

Bendigo r5 Harbour Views; As Above

Strathalbyn r2 Queen’s Song; Better than this grade.

Take Top Tote or boosted odds for the 3 shorties above and then add Pelican Pick for value in a 2nd one.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r6 Free Trade; Was really impressed with it’s last 200m 2nd up where it put the race to bed effortlessly. If it can improve again 3rd up then it will go very close.

Rosehill r4 Star Of The Seas; I don’t usually tip in races full of Waller runners but the claim for my Fav Sydney Jockey Robbie Dolan yet to miss a place in 10 starts and great track record convinced me he is the one.

Flemington r6 Fidelia; Was in all sorts last start before launching from last when finally clear and winning by a length pulling away. On that the 1600m looks ideal. Very wary Sure Knee who has very strong form but banking on the wide draw and 2kgs being enough in our favour.

Flemington Early Quaddie (r2-5); field, 2 3 6, 2 3, 9 $66 for 100%

Doomben r8 Sixties Groove; In a wide open Doomben Cup he is 4/4 at 2000m including a win over Trap For Fools. His first up run was a perfect pipe opener over 1600m where he finished hard for 3rd in a good form race. Heavy place each way .

Doomben r9 Scarlet Dream; I usually stay clear of Oaks favourites in lead up races. They aren’t usually fully wound up with the final in mind and don’t want a gut buster in preparation for the longer distance. However the set weights makes her irresistible here coming an unlucky 2nd to the very smart Very Ellegant in the AJC Oaks. Doomben a concern but class will take her a long way.

Multi / Betfair

Back Doomben r4 Zoustyle; 5/5 and all wins ultra impressive in quick time. Some are tipping Plague Stone but good luck giving this horse a start and running him down.

Flemington r5 Be Good Toya Mother; Good advice and a very good horse in blistering form. Controls his races from the front and can sustain strong speed.

$2.97 for the dbl , add Free Trade $10.69 or Fidelia $7.13 or both $25.66

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Wyong Race 4 Blazing Miss; Big fan of 2yo’s with race form vs ones on debut. She has form around the best 2yo’s. Wyong not the best place to draw wide but important scratchings have made her task easier.

Hamilton r10 Street Style; Won here last start and 2/3 on soft. Races best fresh and presents here in that manner.

Pakenham r2 Alshahad; Having a bit of a “Tom” prep running 2nd at all 3 starts but they have been in stronger maidens and draws to control race from on speed.

Pakenham r6 Whosyourhousemate; Set to peak 3rd up and only just caught in stronger grade 2nd up.

Multi

Hamilton r3 Goodwood Zodiac

with Blazing Miss $3 for the dbl add Alshahad $6.60 or Street Style $13.20 or Housemate $13.20 be a little crazy and its $127.77 for all of them.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Sandown r7 Sovereign Award; 2nd to a very smart one on debut with a gap to third then a 7 length romp in maiden grade at prohibitive odds. This is a deal tougher but drawn the inside and looks Saturday class at least.

Sandown r3 Skelm; Got too far back last start then really motored late . Always hard to beat this grade.

Warwick Farm r5 Nangami; Untested in two soft victories and times have been good while looking to have more up her sleeve.

Ascot r2 Lipstick Flickers; Beaten under a length by a very smart type first up. 1100m is a concern but has shown good pace at trials previously.

Ascot r6 Gessato ; First up 3rd behind a subsequent Saturday winner and the fav State Attorney is bound to be short however is not trustworthy in my opinion.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r3 Velago; Can’t get the last start performance out of my head. Missed the start, went bush around the entire field half way round and put a gap on them which he maintained if not increased to the line. His manners are atrocious but if he jumps he should be winning.

Caulfield r1 Eastender; I’m having great difficulty with this meeting due to unknown track condtions. It has been very wet over most of Victoria with meetings being abandoned or raced on very heavy conditions. As I write this the only rating I can find is soft 5 and most tv hosts have suggested between a soft5/good 4 track which I find strange. Won’t matter with this Tassy raider as he is effective on heavy ten to good 4’s. Never easy to give the whole field 4kgs plus but he won last start with 65kgs so obviously carries it well.

Caulfield r4 Guizot; This looks no harder than his last start win , great record at the track and again most importantly handles all conditions.

Caulfieldr7 Bam’s On Fire; It’s 2yo runs over here in the West were top shelf. First up this time went round at $1.16 in A Benalla maiden and you won’t see an easier win. This is much harder but keeps shortening and expected to get a head start on favourite. No starts on wet, if we get those conditions I would skip race.

Doomben r2 Ef Troop; The jury is out weather it gets a strong 1200m and also if it can reproduce his early 2yo form. I’m giving him a chance to lead these a merry dance under suitable conditions.

Doomben r7 Gem Song; Sailed past them with ease first start in Qld. 3yo taking on pretty handy older horses but should track up from inside gate and finish over the top. Potential top liner going places.

Doomben r8 Osborne Bulls; Fascinating clash between 1 absolute speed freak in Nature Strip who only knows one way and big concerns last 50m vs the bull who’s problem is the opposite in that often gets too far back but then unleashes. Doomben advantage Nature but the Bull is more trustworthy.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Hawkesbury r5 Taken Everything; There have been winners galore from her smart debut win and she looks better than these.

Hawkesbury r8 Wild Impact; This is easier than first up run and looks suited to the 1800m.

Hawkesbury Quaddie (r5-8); 3, 1 2 3 4 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 , 8. $28 for 100%

Pakenham r3 Shezandi As; Has been around the place in harder maidens and looks like a great race to break through.

Multi

Hawkesbury r2 Savigne

Seymour r3 Head Noises

with Taken Everything $4.90

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Flower of War; Two starts for two impressive wins. Has race fitness and will get a head start on main rival Devoted Star who looked very smart on debut but trial was a bit plain.

Ascot r4 Not To Be Mist; Has a big weight to lump but on potential has a big margin on them.

Ascot r6 ; See main page for full race analysis GO STARTTHEFRIAR!!

Ascot Early Quaddie (r1-4); 1 2 3 14, 4, 1 2 4 5 6 9 10 11, 3. $32 for 100%

Ascot Quaddie (r4-7); 3, 1 2 3 4 5 8 9 11 , 1 3, 3 6 7 8 9 10 11 12. $128 for 100%

Sandown r5 Vanuatu; Has the right form to be very confident but untried on wet tracks.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Northam r2 Prince Devoutly; Market has it as a race in two and the other equal favourite has had 15 chances to breakthrough. Prince was placed on debut and has Pike on to offset bad gate.

Northam r7 Wanna Be Good; Doesn’t have to be that good to breakthrough here. If it handles the quick back up from Wednesday and the track is playing fairly ie you can make ground from wide draws then he is clearly the one to beat.

Bendigo r5 Skelm; I am obsessed with the Grinzinger Star form and so far the only time it has let me down was with the horse himself yesterday but there were genuine excuses. A repeat of last run and he goes very close here, won a couple in this distance range last prep and gets a dry track.

Bendigo r6 Adversary; Winner at this track and distance, genuine excuses only recent fail and that was in a hot form race.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r8 Little Fish; Caught off the track last start and was left a sitting shot for eventual winner who tracked him home. Better run midfield with cover and it is clearly the one to beat.

Ascot r7 Ping Me Another; Coming off an Oaks and Derby placing, if she has anything left in the tank then deserves to win this. Very well placed at the weights, just needs to get a spot from tricky draw.

Flemington r3 Fidelia; Has the runs on the board and better formlines.

Flemington r5 Grinzinger Star (Next Best); Beat Mr Quickie then older horses including Divanation who ran 3rd in Warrnambool Cup. Smart use of claim.

Flemington Early Quaddie (r2-5) field, 1, 1 4 6 10, 1. $52 for 100%

Randwick r9 Aggassi; Bolted in with 62kgs which is no easy task. That was after finishing 1 length off Ringerdingding in a group 3. Will take running down.

Morphetville r6 Mirette; Has a sense of timing about her. Was very brave behind todays fav when trapped very wide two back then justified short odds albeit narrowly in a traditional lead up race. Should get a gun run and has placed on slow and heavy. I suggest heavy place staked each way bet.

Gold Coast r3 Accession; The Brisbane 2yo features are nearly always raided by the NSW top stables and this one looks too classy.

Multi/ Betfair Plays * These are short priced favs you could use in Multi’s or shop for better prices on betfair.

Ascot r2 Dance Music; Ultra impressive despite working first up and too classy for these.

Ascot r5 Rebel Knight; Pretty weak race for a Saturday and he just missed a smart one in Cup Night at listed level. Just needs a little luck in getting out from inside draw.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Warrnambool r5 Skyway Star; Only beaten 5 lengths in a Wakeful last prep. Bolted her maiden in on soft, locally trained and has plenty of upside.

Warrnambool r4 Satori; Unbeaten first up (3/3), distance (1/1) and soft (1/1).

Warrnambool r6 Bea Tempted; Came from the back first up and bolted in to add to her already impressive record. Very promising mare from inform stable.

Warrnambool r8 Divanation; A four year old mare in a traditional slugfest at start 6 is hardly ideal but I’m going on the Grinzinger Star formline. Her mum could stay just quietly and as the distances increases I expect her to jump out of the ground. Next season you just never know, she could be the Melbourne Cup fairytale racing needs. Each Way.

Wyong r6 Apollo Prince; Started $1.45 on debut and justified it. Has drifted from $1.85 to $2.30 this morning so monitor market but is related to some former smart types.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Warrnambool r8 Inn Keeper; It’s record at this distance on wet tracks is superb including 1/1 at this track.

Warrnambool r5 The Closer; Unbeaten on soft and coming back a long way in grade from group races.

Warrnambool Early Quaddie (r3-6); 1 2 3 5 7 11 12 13 14 , 1 5, 1, 2 6. $36 for 100%

Warwick Farm r3 Embracer; Trials have been ultra impressive, is from a top stable and has been heavily supported already.

Warwick Farm r7 Ronstar; Never runs a bad race and with the claim for a very accomplished rider looks well placed.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Geelong r5 Pressure; Ran a top 3rd first up behind two smart types then ran in a group 3 on a soft track. The Grinziger Star reference (then beat Mr Quickie) ; is irresistible here.

Pinjarra r2 Orava; Ran fast finishing 2nd to Lookout on debut. That is pretty strong reference for this.

Pinjarra r4 Magic Empire; Has started favourite in most of it’s 9 runs and still to salute. Again opens at short odds but surely breaks the duck against this lot. Last chance but has run well in stronger maidens.

Pinjarra r5 Throwdown; Strong staying type that was very good first up over the mile. Extra fitness sees it go close.

Pinjarra Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; field, 4, 1 9 10 11 12 14, 4 $78 for 100%

Multi ( or back on betfair)

Geelong r1 Sovereign Award

Sha Tin r6 Santa Ana Lane

with Pressure & Magic Empire $10.28

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Hawkesbury r3 Erno; 2yo who is 2/2 and ticked off the 1300m box with aplomb last start. Maps to get the lead on his terms and will take no end of running down.

Hawkesbury r4 Irithea; Loves to lead so last start 2nd was brave when she had to ease on hot speed but came again to run 2nd at a stronger level. 2nd up stats strong, maps to lead unchallenged this time. Only query is record at distance (10-0-3-2) but all other stats say she is deserved fav.

Hawkesbury r8 Tom Melbourne (place); At 1400m he would be my best win bet. At 1600m I’m envisioning him getting an absolute dream run behind favourite Archedemus , peeling off his back at the top of the straight, putting a length or so on them and look home then tip toe late. Very confident he can hold on to 2nd or 3rd but it will be close your eyes stuff last 50m !!

Hawkesbury Early Quaddie (r2-5); 3 4 5 8 9, 1, 1 3 6, 3 11, $30 for 100%

Caulfield r2 Mandela Effect; Exciting prospect with a booming finish on him. Small field helps and looks too classy.

Caulfield r5 Halvorsen; Touch unlucky first up where today’s rival Columbus Circle got all the favours. Think it can turn the tables with even luck and added fitness.

Caulfield Early Quaddie (r2-5); 1, field, 3, 1. $7 for 100%

Caulfield Quaddie (r6-9); 2 3 4 5 8 11, 8, 1 2, 1 3 5 10 11. $60 for 100%

Morphetville r2 Equal Love; Her record of 7 starts for 4wins 2 2nds has been achieved against older horses in higher grade. The fav Lassiter won a 3yo maiden on debut albeit impressively. Considering we will most likely get a fair head start in running , happy to take the better odds but will be looking for the swooper late.. Maybe an exacta with the fav winning as insurance if you like to bet that way.

Morphetville r4 Scottish Rogue; Putting 3 wins from 18 down to the fact of what grade he was tested in early on. Back to this level, especially this prep he has been impressive and looks hardest to beat.

Morphetville r8 Star Missile; After a breathtaking win first up has had a mixture of bad luck and keeps running into Mr Quickie. He is $1.60 in Melbourne and we are getting $6 each way here! Great 40/60 bet.

Eagle Farm r2 Le Juge; Couldn’t find the line in a one horse race in NSW, has won 4 from his last 5 in Qld and $330k in stakes, each time attacking the line with vigour over 1600m. 1800m record is terrible but banking on that was the NSW horse.

Betfair Plays; New segment looking at my best short priced fav to shop around for a price and best fav to lay (offer odds to other users and hope it loses)

Back Eagle Farm r8 Gem Song; The short odds look justified in this field. Terrific run latest and locals look like stayers on a Derby path.

Lay Caulfield r8 Widgee Turf; Think Waging War is a big danger and Widgee will need luck from barrier 1. Happy to lay if it remains $1.70 (offer $1.80) but wouldn’t go too hard as it will go close just under the odds in my opinion.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Flemington r2 Bandipur; In form sprinter with race fitness on his side and has won down the straight before.

Flemington r6 Stars of Carrum; Looks like he will stay all day and has already proven himself in better races.

Flemington Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 5 7, 2, 1, field. $42 for 100%.

Flemington Quaddie (r5-8); 3 8, 1, 1 3, field $44 for 100%

Randwick r4 Julkiss; Progressive type who can show a nice turn of foot over a range of distances.

Randwick r8 Omar; 1000m specialist who will be very hard to run down.

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