Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Stormy Ruler; Thin race and should get run of race for a top trainer/jockey combination.
Pinjarra Quaddie (r6-9); 1 2 3, 2 , 1 2 3 4 7 8 11 12 , 2. $24 for 100%.
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Best Bet Belmont r6 Delta Belle; Try not to tip Odds on Favs as best bets but willing to suggest $1.95 is good value. Showed last start it just needed a middle distance to show it’s true potential. Concede that was a weak maiden and this is much stronger. Also concede 2nd fav’s Magic Las Vegas form lines and weight after claim would have it start favourite without “Pike Tax” but I’m willing to pay the taxman today.
Belmont r4 Black Russian; Full brother to exciting stayer Come Play With Me who also showed a liking for this distance range. Now he has hit his straps expect him to go much further than this level.
Belmont Quaddie (r4-7) ; 4, field, 7, field . $99 for 100%
Doomben r6 Winter Passage; Big drop in class on latest efforts. Would prefer a slightly softer track but should go very close.
Doomben r7 Char Char; Recent efforts have been very good in stronger races.
Multi / Betfair * Short price favs that should win for multi’s or shop for beeter odds.
Belmont r2 Western Queen; Shown enough at trials to beat these.
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Best Bet Flemington r4 Lord Belvedere; Imported stayer who has shown a turn of foot, winning first up over 1600m and running on well over 1800m in a stronger field. Has won over 2400m in England so should be ready for this 3rd up.
Flemington r9 Usain Bowler; Has finished within 5 lengths of Sunlight in the group 1 Newmarket handicap down the Flemington straight. Also bolted in first up down the straight last prep. With 54kgs today looks set to give it an almighty shake. Never been tried over 1000m so hopefully doesn’t leave it too late!
Randwick r4 Slow Burn; This is a huge drop in class and a smart use of claim to get her into a 78 with 59kgs at each way odds.
Randwick r5 Attorney; French Import this time and unbeaten in two Australian starts. Placed 2nd behind a smart sprinter over 1200m in a trial before winning over 1600 and 1900m. Still on the way up.
Morphetville r3 Counter Drive; Banking on it finding the front unopposed and when that happens is always hard to catch.
Morphetville r6 Fill The Flute; Another speedster who when leads is rarely caught , especially at this level.
Multi/Betfair; The following horses are currently odds on but clearly on top . Use as Multi legs or shop on Betfair for better odds.
Belmont r2 Battle Storm; $1.45 actually looks reasonable , he could be a group 1 sprinter in time.
Belmont r4 Mystery Miss; Class filly facing limited opposition but $1.24 makes options limited.
Morphetville r2 Westport; Had no right to win last start but did it easy. Creeping out towards even money which would be acceptable.
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Best Bet Warwick Farm r1 Splendid Surprise ; 3yo who’s effort on debut rated higher than the 2yo fav over the same track and distance. You would expect the 3yo has more upside and your getting better odds.
Warwick Farm r5 Terwilliker; While most of the chances are stepping up in trip , he is dropping back from very solid efforts over longer on heavy tracks. Hence he has a massive fitness edge and the slightly drier conditions suit. Each way.
Warwick Farm r6 Think Free; There has been a massive push for Handspun but for mine they both came out of the same race and although Handspun didn’t get it run to suit , my pick still finished 2 lengths in front of it.
Sunshine Coast r4 Great Powers; Finds it hard to win but finds an easier race to do so after going close in better races.
Sunshine Coast r8 Full Nelson; Won on debut so might race best first up and it’s best will run a good race here at decent each way prices.
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Best Bet Belmont r8 Lordhelpmerun; Looked set to win last start before peaking late and failing to get past another smart one in The Velvet King. Maps to get every possible chance just behind the leader. My one concern is 1600m might be his limit with 60kgs but class will carry him a long way.
Caulfield r1 Can’t Be Done ; 2yo with strong winning form around him , handles the likely tough conditions.
Caulfield r2 Charlayne; Racing well in pretty strong city NSW races. Drawn to get lovely run and pounce in the straight if rail is ok.
Caulfield r6 Tavirun; The race conditions look almost identical to last start where he ran them into the ground.
Doomben r2 Another Dollar ; It’s form in QLD is strong against better opposition than it meets today.
Doomben r3 Ingear; Has a big wrap on her from 1 trial and one start, showing great speed at both ends in both to win by a space. This is much tougher but they will be giving her a start and will have to sprout wings to catch her.
Betfair/Multi Banker;
Rosehill r5 Spiritual Pursuit; Unbeaten on heavy tracks , drawn to get every chance.
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Best Bet Morphetville r4 Westport; Has to jump from a 2yo provincial maiden to city BM64 but did jump at $1.07 in that maiden and justified the odds. From top stable and only other run was unlucky run in group 3 Blue Diamond Preview.
Morphetville r3 Disco Rebel; Racing pattern and breeding suggest the slight increase in distance will suit. If the track deteriorates further then Sanima Star becomes a big threat. Has stronger form however needs it wetter than a soft 5 to show best.
Morphetville Early Quaddie (r2-5); 1, 2 4 , 9, 1 4 7 8 10 11 12 16 $16 for 100%
Sandown r2 Desert Dreamer; Has ticked the 1400m wet track box and debut in city was very good effort without luck.
Sandown Early Quaddie (r1-4); Field, 1, Field, 6. $54 for 100%
Betfair/Multi; The following horses are tipped to go very close but are currently too short in my opinion. Shop on betfair or use them in multi legs if you agree.
Sandown r4 Mirimar; Finishing in front of and next to Future Score last two starts is the right form. $1.90 for a record of 3 wins from 20 ?
Doomben r2 Removal; Will handle the conditions but $1.80 for a horse that keeps just missing.
Morphetville r2 Blow Torch; Big drop in class should help.
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Best Bet Belmont r8 Great Again; Had to bite my tongue last start when a visiting apprentice decided to take a sit on a horse who first up ran them into the ground in similar conditions. The booking of Noske is a very strong indication of a return to aggressive tactics and the winners stall.
Belmont Early Quaddie (r1-4); 3 8 9 , 5, field, 1. $33 for 100%
Belmont Quaddie (r5-8); 1, 1 2 3 4 5 6 9 10 11 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11, 1. $99 for 100%
Flemington r6 Wealthy Wolf; Hasn’t had much luck of late , will run the trip out and handles all conditions . Good each way value.
Flemington r7 Milwaukee; Straight track specialist who just arrived over 1100m last start and is better suited over today’s 1200m.
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Best Bet Belmont r3 Arsinoe; Looked in need of the run first up and had to come from well back from bad draws both runs this prep. Should be ready to peak and will be running on hard.
Belmont r5 Apollo; Was badly held up last start and should of gone close. Start prior was a good third against better horses.
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Best Bet Sunshine Coast r3 Savacool; Has the strongest form lines by some distance and expecting her to improve several lengths again on the wet track.
Sunshine Coast r5 Tardis; Last start win at this track and distance was dominant and start before was a win on heavy which he most likely faces today.
Sunshine Coast r8 Jamaican Rain; Won this race last year and is a supreme wet tracker.
Sunshine Coast Early Quaddie (r2-5); 1 2 , 4 ,field, 7. $32 for 100%
Rosehill r4 Itz Lily; Proved it had more to give after it’s QLD oaks campaign with a good win back in Sydney. Loves wet ground and this is no harder.
Rosehill Early Quaddie (r2-5); 2, 1 2 8 11, 7, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 13. $36 for 100%
Belmont r6 Lordhelpmerun; Looks ready for the 1600m , wet or dry no problem and drawn to get soft run.
Belmont r8 Free Trade; Has enough speed to get over comfortably enough and sit just off a likely hot tempo. Is flying and at the weights is the one to catch.
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Best Bet Sandown R2 Spryzen; 2 from 2 solid victories, both on wet tracks. Sandown should suit for metro debut and not much wet track form amongst the others.
Randwick r7 Broom Broom; It’s only win to date was on a heavy track. Has been running ok on unsuitable good 4s and soft 5s so having a stab that $23 / $4.50 is worth a go on a Heavy 10.
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Best Bet Belmont r7 Mystery Miss; Hard meeting to tip with the track rated good 4 in glorious sunshine Friday but with Winter Solstice rains expected to unload overnight and throughout the weekend. However she ran a barnstorming 3rd 2nd up from a long injury enforced spell on a soft 6 this track and distance against the older horses last start. Peaks here and goes very close.
Belmont r3 Festival Miss; First up for the all conquering cerise and white / Pike combo. She needs slightly longer than today’s 1000m to show her best but her class can still get her over the line against this lot.
Belmont r5 Friar Fox; Hasn’t won for a while but her first up run from a failed Melbourne trip was full of merit in a stronger race. Bound to be fitter and this is perfect race to gain some confidence.
Belmont r8 Great Again; Got back to Belmont (6/6) and wet ground (4/4) last start. Provided the rain arrives it’s hard to tip against a record like that!
Belmont Early Quaddie (r1-4); 1 2 5 6 8, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 , 9 , 13. $50 for 100%
Randwick r7 Monsieur Sisu; Not the best horse in the race but gets conditions to suit. Outstanding heavy track record and ready to win.
Randwick r9 Spiritual Pursuit; 1/1 on heavy and was very brave first up when caught deep. Drawn to lead and has run some cracking races in tougher grade than this.
Randwick Quaddie (r6-9); 1 2 3 8, 5 15, field , 13. $104 for 100%
Flemington r7 Bams on Fire; 3/3 this prep and all wins have been impressive on pace against good horses. 2/2 soft so as long as not bottomless should run another bold race.
Flemington r9 Blazejowski; Real up an comer who is so versatile and loves a wet track. No reason he can’t win again.
Flemington Quaddie(r6-9) ; 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 , 1 2 4, 2 4 , 4 6. $108 for 100%
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Best Bet Sandown r4 Collectable; Went straight in the black book when she won last start in dominant fashion as our best bet. Besides her unlucky SA Oaks run she has been in dominant form. Will be rock hard fit for the heavy 9 and her soft track performances suggest she is a fair chance of getting through it.
Canterbury r3 Guise; Was on a Qld oaks path and proven on heavy tracks so must be hard to beat back to this level.
Canterbury r4 Austria; Last start hard finishing 3rd at this track and distance and the winner has won again since.
Canterbury r5 Aim For Perfection; On target to live up to it’s name , unbeaten at races and trials. Can win better races than this.
Canterbury Quaddie (r4-7); 7, 4, 2 3 4 5 8, field. $45 for 100%
Doomben r2 Gratuitous; One of very few go forward horses in the race so should be hard to catch in a weak race.
Doomben r7 Rationale; Can’t work out why it is $7.50 vs fav who is $2.45 after beating it home last start. Was hoping for a wetter track but safer bet each way than fav.
Doomben r9 Mewstone Rock; Winning strike rate not great and always needs luck in running as usually gets back but if she gets it she should be charging over the top of these. Each Way.
Belmont r7 Apollo; Hoping it can settle close enough from barrier one and finish in the money at odds. Although coming back in distance the Playing Marika 3rd is strong enough form for this and has a solid 1000m record. Each way.
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Best Bet Sandown r2 Silent Roar; Should get it’s own way out in front , 4/5 at this distance including 1/1 at track and handles soft ground. 3/3 2nd up and her runs have been spaced to replicate that scenario.
Sandown r5 Pacodali; Relishes soft ground and last winter beat Sixties Groove and Trap For Fools. Both of those would be deep in the red here.
Sandown Early Quaddie (r2-5); 2 , 2 5, field, 1. $24 for 100%
Morphetville r2 Meli Mello; Gets back on to preferred wet ground and has the strongest form lines. Each Way.
Morphetville r5 Wherever Whenever; 2/2 in much easier class in Victoria but both wins ultra impressive to the eye. Soft no problem , good use of claim and still has massive upside. Scr from Sandown for this.
Belmont r4 Stoicism; Can really finish off his races with a bang and should settle a bit closer from ideal draw here. Seems to handle big weights so 2kg claim down to 58kg for inform apprentice is a bonus. Each Way.
Belmont Quaddie (r5-8); 5, 3 5 7 10 11 12, 2 3 5 10 11 15, 1 7 8. $108 for 100%
Rosehill Quaddie (r6-9); 1 4 7 , 1 2 3 4 6 9 10 11 12 14 , 12 , 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 $360for 100% (flexi up) * If you like the odds on fav in last take it one out for 100% ($30) and the others for 10% ($36) . I think it is under the odds.
Multi/Betfair
Back ; Short price favs that I think will win.
Belmont r5 Galaxy Star; Crying out for the 1600m plus and unbeaten on wet ground. As close to a moral since Winx you’ll get.
Rosehill r2 Galapagos; Like it on it’s last start 3rd to Kolding and Quackerjack, that is outstanding form for this but… $1.95 is way too short. It was still beaten 4 lengths and started at $61. I would need around $2.40 before backing.
Rosehill r8 Sylvia’s Mother; Very promising 3yo filly with a big wrap on her. The trial did nothing to dampen that wrap ie it was awesome. It is however now very short in part to a couple of key scratchings and first up I would prefer at least even money.
Lay; short price favs I think are under the odds.
Rosehill r9 Kapajak; On weights and uncapped potential this should be winning but … It has barrier 1 and a 3kg apprentice in a capacity field in Saturday grade therefore I am willing to lay him if it remains odds on.
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Best Bet Ballarat r2 Maktabba; 2yo taking on older horses but a 4th to Yes Yes Yes is top shelf 2yo form and trial on the synthetic indicated surface will suit. The price is diminishing before our eyes so get on now!
Ballarat r7 Vassa Blue; Competitive race but he has grown a leg since racing at this track and distance which is a big advantage .
Gosford r4 Seeigisbelieving; Should work across to lead , control the race and take some running down.
Gosford r6 Nostro Re; Well bred speedster who bolted in on debut. Fav NSW jockey on.
Gosford Quaddie (r5-8) 2 4 6 8 9 , 7, 1, 1 2 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12. $50 for 100%
Pinjarra r6 Morning Song; Last start Indicates it will run out the distance stronger than it’s rivals.
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Best Bet Doomben r1 Curdled ; Won two in a row in similar grade before tackling stronger races. 2kg claim has it placed to win.
Doomben r3 Haalan; Debut 2nd was good enough whereas others have had a few chances.
Warwick Farm r3 California Salto; Has battled bad draws in two starts to date and done best work late. Should settle closer and finish too well. Mini Boom looks clear danger but thinking she might have to do some work to cross over and up 200m in distance might be vulnerable late.
Warwick Farm r7 Aperitif; Can see her getting a gun run right behind the speed and she is dropping in grade.
Sale r6 Iknewshewasmine; Two runs this prep have resulted in a close 2nd to subsequent metro winner and an easy on pace victory , both on wet tracks.
Sale r7 Trigger Point; Runs its best races fresh and on wet tracks. Gets those conditions today and won in this grade first up . $14 each way is a good price.
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Best Bet Mornington r5 Tata Da Goose; Handles the heavy , races on pace which is good for this track and is in winning form in the distance range.
Randwick r4 Accelerato; Well backed at first run for new stable off back of impressive trial. Didn’t fire but Victorian form indicates a liking for today’s soft conditions so expecting significant improvement.
Randwick r7 Amorita; 2/3 on soft and only beaten a length in a harder race last start , finishing off hard.
Balaklava r3 France’s Boy; Bolted in two back and is race fit while others in the market are resuming from spells.
Balaklava r5 Lord Gilbert; On debut 4th looks like it will appreciate step up in distance as it was finishing quite well. Each Way.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 On Ze Run; Fair 4th on debut in stronger field. Was slow out on that occasion so from barrier 1 in a big field needs to jump better and get a position. Likely to win from that scenario.
Kalgoorlie Quaddie (r4-7); 15, 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 , 3, 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 11. $64 for 100%
Hawkesbury r3 Petronius; Million dollar colt on debut. Has won two trials to prepare for this.
Hawkesbury r7 Warset; Ex Kiwi who is gradually getting there fitness wise after a long spell. Missed the start latest but prior runs were good and this isn’t any harder. Each way.
Swan Hill r9 Connery; Looks the runner in the field with the most upside. This is a step up again but last start was dominant this distance where he excels.
Edenhope r8 Do The Hippy; Dropping in grade and 100m on a firmer track which should suit. Only just run down last time so these conditions help.
Multi / Betfair
Swan Hill r6 Stealthy Lucas; Gun trainer of stayers and form from last start 3rd stands out here.
Kalgoorlie r6 Excaro; Very speedy and has been beating similar fields with ease. Pretty short though.
For multi lovers I suggest these two with any of the above as trebles.
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Best Bet Flemington r9 Sure Knee; Just failed to catch Fidelia who is airborne with 60kgs this track and distance last start. Form before that very strong and will be storming home.
Flemington r2 Kings Brook; Blinkers have done the trick with this filly. Bolted in same track and distance last start in quick time.
Flemington r7 Dr Drill; Import with in form stable who ran 2nd to Admiral’s Joker this track and distance last start. Winner has Mr Quickie form and there was a big gap to 3rd.
Flemington r8 Iconoclasm; Staying at 1200m 2nd up chasing group 1 glory didn’t quite work but now he presents here at 1400m where is 2/2 (track&distance) 3/3 (distance) 3/4 (track). Those stats combined with the drop in class point to a big run.
Flemington Quaddie (r6-9); field, 12,3 4 9 17 , 4. $40 for 100%
Eagle Farm r1 Jami Lady; Two starts ago ran 3rd behind an unbeaten star in Zoustlye then backed it up with a good 2nd behind another smart sprinter. 20/80 at $9.50/2.50 looks a great bet. Fav Plague Stone looks the big danger and quinella horse.
Eagle Farm r2 Con Te Tappiro; American mare who made her Aus debut with victory in a group 3. Hit a flat spot that day and looked gone before coming again and getting over Savitiano who then thrashed a quality field in Qld next start. Think she leads th4 is and might roll along in clear air rather than sit and sprint.
Eagle Farm r4 Noble Boy; Biggest test to date but you don’t win 7/8 anywhere without being a serious horse. First up in Qld was a romp. Will need a gap to pounce in straight but should be good pace which can open the field up.
Eagle Farm r7 Re Edit; Good run from well back in Oaks lead up but didn’t make field. Went to wfa over 2200m instead and ran cracking 3rd behind older multiple group 1 winner. That run would of won Oaks so must be an each way chance if she handles the back up.
Eagle Farm r8 The Bostonian / Tyzone ; Typical wide open group 1 handicap which means we can back two each way and still make a good profit. The Bostonion is 5/5 in Qld and simply never runs a bad race. Topweights very rarely win handicaps at this level but will be in the finish. Tyzone’s last win was too good not to include. Sailed home from near last out wide under hands and heels riding to cover them easily. Drops to 53kgs and Is another that is always in the finish.
Eagle Farm Early Quaddie (r2-5); 6 8, 2 3 4 6 11 16, 10, 1 5 13 15 $48 for 100%
Eagle Farm Quaddie (r6-9); 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8, 2 6 16 17, 1 13, 3 4 7. $192 for 100%
Randwick r6 Simply Optimistic; Long time between runs indicates its had issues but form in NZ indicate fair level of talent. Trial back home was impressive to the eye and doubt they would be here if not ready to run a race. Each Way.
Belmont r5 Battle Storm; Could be anything over the short trips if debut campaign was anything to go by. Wet no problem.
Belmont r6 Misty Metal; Back to her fav track and distance where I actually like the wide draw in the small field. Has the speed to make her way over under her own steam and either lead or breeze and sustain it to the line.
Belmont r8 The Velvet King; Unbeaten on soft and will be up on speed controlling it again. Harder than last time but he did things wrong and still bolted in when backed off the map last start.
Belmont Quaddie; (r5-8); 7, 4, 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 , 6 8. $22 for 100%
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Best Bet Seymour r8 Collectable; The 3rd to Princess Jenni / Sure Knee over this distance at Caulfield is a very strong reference for this. As long as she has some petrol left in the tank following SA Oaks run she will take no end of beating. Has had a month to freshen up.
Seymour r4 Stinging Remark; First up and only career start two was a real eye catcher running on hard to just miss over 1600m. This trainer/jockey combo are dominating at present.
Seymour r5 First Water; Showed his liking for this distance range with a seven length maiden romp. This is much harder but banking on it being the best stayer. Each Way.
Wyong r7 Romantic Whisper; The most likely map scenario has it getting a soft lead. In that scenario and in current form she is the one to beat. Jockey is a gun and still claims 1.5 here which is a bonus.
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Best Bet Canterbury r2 Blazing Miss; Went too hard out in front first up hence the blinkers have come off. My fav Sydney jockey Robbie Dolan goes on and runs on soft in group company were solid,.
Canterbury r7 Guipure; Ready to peak 3rd up where the extra distance and soft track look in his favour.
Sandown r4 Mirimar; Tipping the big weight swing on a heavy track will be enough to turn the tables on the fav at the better odds. 40/60 split each way looks the go.
Belmont r5 Delectable Dolly; Lovely looking filly who indicated she has improved out of sight with a good win at York on resumption. York to Belmont not easy but this isn’t strong. Barbie Will Do strong danger but she will get back and require luck. Each Way.
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