Best Bet Ascot r2 Silent Act ; Bit risky making a ten start maiden a special but recent 2nds behind Beau Zoom and Brave Dream should be good enough form to win this.
Best Value Ascot r8 Masquerade ; Has run ok in much stronger races behind horses that would start very short in this. $8 is a good value each way play.
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Best Bet Ascot r1 Sassy Trader ; Competitive with Kissonallforcheeks form is far superior to what everything else brings to the table. Very keen on this one today.
Ascot r9 Elite St ; Was showing great signs at the midweeks before a break. Came back even stronger by putting away a strong field with an electrifying burst of speed. Battle Storm was good from last in the same race but again draws poorly and will be giving them another big head start.
Flemington r8 Arcadia Queen ; Horses that run well in the Cox Plate invariably go close in this race. She was enormous , picking herself up after nearly falling and running on to be only beaten 4 lengths. Back on top of the ground she is clearly the one to beat here providing she has a run left in her. She is short enough considering the big jockey change. Suggest seeing how she parades in the yard to get a guide on her mood as mares can be cranky when they’re over the top.
Flemington Quaddie (r6-9) ; 2 3 , 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 , 9 , 11 15 $48 for 100%.
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Best Bet Flemington r3 Ancestry ; Been singing his praises all prep and am pleasantly surprised by the current price of $3.50. If this was around a bend I’m guessing he would be very close to odds on. He has failed at his only attempt at straight racing , went solo that day against the pattern and it was 1200m. Over 1000m I’m going to take the chance he will handle it .
2nd Best Bet Flemington r9 Written Beauty ; Broke Nature Strips track record on a lightning fast Moonee Valley last start and looked like it still had gears to use. Outside draw looks perfect to build the revs and blow them away again. Add Pike in the last and I can see this being one of the goes of the carnival Australia wide. Minhaaj has September Run form this track and distance , That’s red hot form and at $8.50 can easily save on her Obvious Quinella.
Flemington Quaddie (r6-9); 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 11 12 , field , 1 *11 , *4 6.
$144 for 100% standing out the 1 and 6 last two legs.
$576 to include the 11 r8 and 4 r9 ( I suggest a small percentage of this one as insurance)
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Best Bet Flemington r5 Ain’tnodeeldun ; Will be at Bunbury races cup day so I have settled on local champ Damian Lane to steer us home on this exciting 3yo Dundeel colt. Held Victoria Quay at bay in Adelaide this distance. That filly then won Saturday’s Wakeful so the form stacks up.
Melbourne Cup ; 1st 17 The Chosen One 2nd 12 Prince of Arran 3rd 13 Surprise Baby 4th 15 Russian Camelot. Best Roughie (Besides 17 ) 20 Etah James .
Summary
Don’t have a firm opinion this year so have gone with the odds in selecting The Chosen One . I could easily pick another 10 horses and miss the winner such is the difficulty that is the Melbourne Cup. Great race to pool some money together with your mates and try and jag a slice of the huge novelties on offer. Good luck Ducks and give us your own tips in the comments.
Novelties 1st & 2nd ; 12 13 15 17 $6 quinella
3rd ; 1 5 7 12 13 15 17 20 21 $84 trifecta
4th ; 1 4 5 7 11 12 13 15 16 17 20 21 24 $924 first four.
Ascot r8 Tonkatuff ; Faces same conditions as last start where he was a convincing winner.
Best Value Ascot r9 Solaia ; This is a cracking race. Tipped her as a moral first up at Northam where she got too far out of her ground over 1000m. Went forward 2nd up in town and gave them a thrashing over 1200m , the trainer almost declared her a certainty for the guineas , such is his confidence in her. He obviously 1400 to 1600m will suit even more. Didn’t back her that day and now I’m trying to get back on the bandwagon in a very good field. Magical Dream was breathtaking last start , Kissonallforcheeks is explosive , Snickerdoodledandy desperately unlucky in Magical Dream race , heaps of winners have come from races she has won easily. Blowmeout’s maiden win was emphatic and it doesn’t stop there!
Bunbury r8 Airlie Queen ; Ran them down on debut over 1000m then went to a very strong 3yo omwly where she hit the line nicely. This is much easier and if they are making ground out wide she will be steaming over the top of them with only 53kgs on her back after claim for in form apprentice.
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Best Bet Mount Barker r4 London Miss ; Finished locked together with our very own Angelique’s Fame at her only trial this time in. Had a minor foot issue last time in hence the disappointing results. Her previous form is strong enough for this.
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Best Bet Ascot r6 Niccovi ; Has only won the 1 race but has always raced in top company , including placings at listed and group 3 level in Victoria. 1000m was always going to be too short first up but hit the line hard into 3rd in what should prove to be a hot form race. Does have to give Comes a Time 4kgs , the obvious danger for quinella and quaddie players.
Ascot r4 Notorious One ; Big raw gelding that has no idea how to race properly. If the penny drops then he blows them away . It’s a big if however so I suggest saving on Heaven’s Gift , very confident one of the two wins.
Best Value Flemington r7 Cetshweyo; Was awesome at just start two over 1800m Flemington. Last start was run as a snails pace and was caught flat footed however was still running strong to the line. Back to Flemington and dry ground , bred to eat up the distance and winkers added to keep him focused. $18 looks a good each way play.
Kalgoorlie r1 Starthefriar ; Our beloved Donald has found a new lease on life at his new stable. This is a massive step up in class however he will not know himself with 52.5kgs , dropping 5.5kgs on his narrow defeat this track and distance last start. Will drop out to last and come wide , in a field of five that is not as hard as it seems. Fingermark is also very well in at the weights and hardest to beat.
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Best Bet Northam r7 Phoneme ; Took a few runs for gun trainer Michael Lane to get the best out of him since arriving from the east but was heavily backed and bolted in prior to a freshen up. Have it on good authority that he is good to go and has big barrier advantage on key rival On Red Alert.
Northam Quaddie (r4-7); 1 4 9 10 , 2 4 , 3 4 6 7 8 9 , 1 7 . $96 for 100%
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Best Bet Ascot r3 Red Hot Hope; 1/2 sister to group 1 winner Kay Cee who showed her own potential with a last to 3rd finishing burst over 1200m on debut . Conditions are predicted to suit swooping today . Straight to 1500m will take some doing but she is definetly the one to follow .
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Best Bet Northam r7 American Choice ; Comes with superior form lines along with stablemate Nuhad . Drawn to get the better run and looks very hard to beat. Backing it straight out then going wide in the quaddie for insurance.
Northam r9 Samsurian; If it can stretch it’s 1100-1200m form behind numerous Saturday city winners to 1400m then it is clearly the horse to beat.
Northam Quaddie (r6-9); 2 3 , 1 2 4 6 7 , 1 4 7 , 7. $45 for 100%
Been a tough couple of weeks so here’s hoping the punting gods are listening .
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Best Bet Ascot r5 Naughty by Nature; If I rate her a legitimate Railway horse then obviously I think she can win here. Has the barrier advantage over very talented dangers in Western Pride and Dom To Shoot. Expecting her to settle in the front half on the fence and jockey Clint Johnson Porter will leave no stone unturned to get her into the clear and keep the Railway dream alive. Can go each way at current prices.
Best Value Ascot r6 Oristano ; When markets opened Thursday morning I had to hold myself back from unloading at $8.50. With three emergencies all right in the market securing a start it has blown out to $12/$3.75. Scratching my head trying to work out why , I can only presume they are predicting fence / on pace conditions. He doesn’t have to get as far back as last start in a stronger race. 3 wide with cover would be perfect and if that is no disadvantage then we are getting outrageous value on a horse with an explosive turn of foot at the top of his game.
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Best Bet Moonee Valley r4 So Si Bon ; Coming out of Group 1’s to a field of 5 and only 4kg from top to bottom , he really should be winning here. If the promised deluge arrives , confidence soars as his main danger Iconoclasm has a terrible wet track record. I will be waiting for a track downgrade before deciding how hard to go.
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Best Value ; Ascot r5 Paddy O’furniture ; 8yo who broke through at start 9 last start so obviously has soundness issues. That was 2nd up jumping from 1000m to 1400m so should appreciate the extra 200m at first attempt with added fitness. Drawn 1 in a wide open race it’s obviously no good thing , just trying to squeeze some value out of the overs gods , usually a very difficult task!
Ascot r7 Tonkatuff; Another 8yo who is still showing a zest for racing. Last 3 runs have all been full of merit and has the draw today to settle a touch closer. Each way .
Best Multi;
Ascot r1 Outback Jack (win); $1.50 in a field of 5 including 3 maidens actually looks generous if your a thrill seeker.
Geelong r7 Steel Prince (place) ; Went to bed last night thinking $2.15 the place will be my best bet of the day. Woke up to $1.50 damn it. On current form I’m supremely confident it can beat all the Australian horses home. Too many unknowns with the internationals, four of them all looking for a Melbourne Cup start. Skyward has recent Anthony Van Dyke form over this distance, hence the place is a safer option.
$2.25 for the double seems pretty reasonable , $4.50 if you want to add Tonkatuff @ $2 place.
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Best Bet Caulfield r4 CETSHWAYO ; We made him our spring contender for the Vic Derby following his slashing last to first win at just his 2nd career start . Love stayers with a turn of foot and very happy to play at $6 each way , Jamie Kah and trainer Danny O’brien are both at the top of their game.
Ascot r3 Secret Plan ; Went straight in every WA racing followers black book when it put them to the sword from last over 1000m on debut. The question here is what price is acceptable. Gets back to last again from an awful gate in a much stronger field stacked full of potential . $2.50 is potentially too short but if he cruises past them again then we have a potential superstar on our hands. I will be watching the market and won’t be taking any shorter than $2.50.
Ascot r4 Notorious One ; Try not to tip odds on favourites unless on the rare occasions like this where the odds look generous. Unbeaten in two starts despite being green as grass and doing a lot wrong. Some gear changes have been tinkered with and if they work he’ll put these away.
Ascot r7 Valour Road ; Absolutely flies first up and maps to camp behind two speed demons and run over the top of them.
Ascot r9 Position of Power; If you can forgive his last run flop when he was vetted after a mounting yard incident then he’s form warrants serious consideration here . Sometimes those things effect horses mentally if not physically and with Harvey going back on I’m willing to take the gamble.
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Best Bet Ascot r2 Type Won ; The edition of blinkers and drop back to 1200m shows real intent to cross early and keep running. Jockey excels on front runners and comes from stronger races.
Ascot r3 Hell’s Belle ; Lacks a killer punch at the end of her races at this early stage of her career however her form warrants consideration here on an each way basis. Will settle on speed and battle away in an open race.
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Best Bet Geraldton r5 Showzali; Looks extremely well placed dropping from metro c3’s where she has been competitive to a Geraldton c2. Drawn perfect and claim helps.
Geraldton r3 La Chiave ; A repeat of her first run up here will see her go close in a very weak maiden.
Geraldton r6 Jag the Joker ; Hard horse to catch but a last start Belmont winner should measure up here.
Geraldton r7 Sans Le Sou; Looked home here last start at odds on before paddling late with big weight. Hoping the 2kg claim makes the difference and maybe they take a sit over leading.
Best Value Cranbourne r8 Aristia; In a feature race where you couldn’t rule out any, I think $17 for a group 1 winner getting up to her best distance range is overs. Damian Lane is an elite jockey and knows her best.
Cranbourne r6 Fine Dane & Ancestry ; Ancestry went straight into our blackbook when he smashed them first up at Caulfield. Has been kept fresh for this and both trainer and jockey stated there was heaps of improvement to come. Drawn 1 he’s bound to try and boot up and run them off their legs. He is 0/2 over the 1000m though so not willing to dive in to $2.25. Fine Dane has very strong 1000m stats in better company. Gets the perfect sit in running to pounce late. I suggest backing Fine Dane and having the quinella with Ancestry as a saver.
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Best Bet Ascot r9 Naughty By Nature ; After her trial I mentioned to put her in your black book and get ready for whatever she turns up in. Well here she is albeit over 1200m (short of her best) and from a horror gate (17 before scratchings). This is obviously not ideal but the favorites have drawn wide also and will have to do some work to get over. She will be back near last and wide on the corner but I expect her to be rocketing home late. The camp have Railway Stakes aspirations so we might be going 1 run too early but at $14 I’m willing to take the chance she can at least place. Obviously Ascot can play leaderish which will sink us but by the last we will know any pattern.
Ascot r5 Patristic ; Held off Inspirational Girl in almost identical circumstances last start. The fav will have to come from last again and Patristic will be on top of the speed with a light weight. Considering we can go each way (2.10 a place) , it’s better value .
Caulfield r3 Windstorm ; Nearly every Australian tipster’s best bet of the day. (some concern as these spruik horses often lose !) There looks to be good speed on and he will be storming over the top. Pike indicated before his last win that his trackwork had improved significantly . He has since reported that he hasn’t gone backwards.
Caufield r6 Russian Camelot vs Arcadia Queen; I am one of the Russian’s biggest fan. I have him going in a few multi’s in the Melbourne Cup and expect him to win the Cox Plate on the way. I don’t see the point in taking $1.55 today though. Arcadia Queen finally has the bar plates coming off. Pike has reported that she has worked brilliantly this week. I still think the Russian will prove too classy but will not be taking the shorts just in case. If she can even find a length or so with the bars off then she really should be running 2nd. Quinella if your a Queen fan , watch a great horse go round if you don’t trust her.
Caufield r9 Superstorm & Acherner Star; Superstorm is having a frustrating campaign. Just can’t buy a barrier and again looks like getting a long way back. If swoopers are getting home then he definately has the class . Will take a brilliant ride by Pike but he is confident of a big run. Small each way bet in a lottery of a race. Achernar Star is absolutely flying. 1600m is about as far as he wants in this class but from barrier 1 he does no work and is capable of sneaking into the money at big odds.
Caufield r9 Exotics ; Box numbers 4 5 9 13 15 for a % percentage of hopefully a big dividend!
Caufield r10 The Chosen One ; Forget last start when vet tested at the barriers. First up win was superb and has performed at this track and distance in the past. Needs to win to guarantee a run in the Caufield Cup . Fingers crossed he does for Spring Contender followers. Each Way today.
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Best Bet Northam r4 Solaia; Although technically a c1 in a c3 she showed above average ability at her 3 starts as a 2yo. Easy maiden win then two decent runs in big feature races. Trialed brilliantly in quick time just behind Laverod recently. Ask yourself what price Laverod would be here , $1.20ish I would suggest. Massive chance.
Northam r3 Blue Eyed Girl; 4yo mare on debut who is regally bred. Trial was good enough to suggest she will be in the finish in an open affair.
Northam r7 Hip Wiggle; Is never far away and finished off hard off an unsuitable tempo first up. Form out of the race might be a touch stronger in the long run than the favourite who is very short.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 Beethoven ; Was a very talented 2yo before struggling to go on with it like many other 2yo’s before him. His win first up as a 4yo was breathtaking , steaming down the outside from last. Beat a stablemate that is in red hot form that day , indicating the new stable may have worked him out. Won’t be as far back from barrier two and no one rides the track better than Yuill. Drops 4kgs for the rise in class.
Best Value Kalgoorlie r7 Bartrader; Frustrating horse to follow. Tipped and backed by yours truly all last prep where he threatened to win one at big odds however failed to get it done. The efforts were still solid though and most were in much stronger races than this. More than happy to be on each way at current odds of over 20s.
Kalgoorlie r8 Ihtsahymn; Forget his run in the Boulder Cup. Was last on the fence on straightening with 60kgs and had to run at right angles to get out before running on near the outside fence to be only beaten 4 lengths. Reeked a bit of a tune up run for the big one . Should settle much closer and class will carry him a long way . Each way.
Caulfield r6 Steel Prince; Huge in defeat last start behind one of the Caulfield Cup favourites , earning the weekly nomination for our Spring Contender series. If you can overcome barrier 20 (before scratchings) at any track it is Flemington . With little pace predicted , hopefully they roll forward and try and find a spot close to the speed. Great each way bet under those circumstances.
Flemington r7 Superstorm.; We put this one in our blackbook after his luckless run in the Rupert Clark (1400m). Looked ready to win no matter where he turned up albeit I wasn’t expecting it to jump straight to 2000m in a Turnball stakes! It’s a big ask but he is down in the weights and his form from his 3yo runs in the guineas and all star mile indicate he is not out of place in this company. Each Way.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r3 Staaden; Has the most upside in this field by some way and certain to run the trip out strongly. We are taking on an equal favourite stablemate (both Durrant horses) . Magic Will Reign is bound to be in the finish , just one of those horses that needs to hit the front on the line whereas Staaden runs through the line stronger , especially over the longer trips.
Kalgoorlie r4 Get Over It ; Looks nicely weighted/placed considering the form around his last couple of runs has stood up. Is the fresh blood in a small field of local sprinters who have clashed many times over the season for mixed results.
Kalgoorlie r7 Money Matters; Tipping a huge day for the Durrant stable . Race in two with stablemate and favourite Massimo . Class wise they stick out like a sore thumb. Pym’s Royale has an amazing record at the track , (7/8) however is 7 weeks between runs. Going with the better value on a hunch he can find the front. From there he will be awfully hard to beat. I expect the fav to be right behind him and awfully hard to hold out hence I wont be losing on the race if he wins.
r7 Betting Strategy ; Equal units on both eg $100 on Money Matters @ $3.80 and $100 on Massimo @ $2.15
Spend $200 and get back $380 or $215 (Hopefully!) I am that confident one of these two wins I will then put $15 on quinella to try and make a bit more profit.
r7 First four; 1 2 , 1 2 , 3 4 5 7 10 , 3 4 5 7 8 10. $50 for 100%
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Xan Bio; Took 6 attempts to break her maiden but she broke it in style winning by 5 lengths in this distance range. Normally the jump to c1 is quite challenging however not as much with the stayers . 6yo mare so obviously took a long time to get right but she is in the zone and still getting better with each run.
Belmont r4 Oristano; This time we are jumping from maiden to c3, a very risky betting proposition. The dominance of his first up win and the red hot form out of his trial combined with the fact we found him first up has convinced me to go again. Hoping the win gave him the confidence he needed to rise quickly through the grades.
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