Thursday Tips

Pinjarra r5 1200 MDN; 3 PRIZE PURSUIT MITCHELL PATEMAN ( 4 ) 56.5 kg

After an encouraging 2nd over 1000m on debut , Prize Pursuit has opened $3.70 favourite ($3.10 after scratchings / support ) for an all aged 1200m maiden at Pinjarra Park this Thursday. He derived great benefit out of his first up run and his work since suggests he will be fighting out the finish. Drawn perfectly in 4 , he has good natural pace and will come out positive. If something wants to keep him out or attack relentlessly from out wide then he is versatile enough to let them go and run on. Mischievous Diva is the class dropper and Heels a Plenty knocking on the door , both will have to either do some work or give us a head start from their wider draws.

Betting Strategy ; 100 % Wins . Was hoping for $1.80 place to go each way , you might even get it closer to jump. Looks like one of those races that punters will back a few . For now I suggest just a medium win bet and no need to go yet .

Novelties ; * This Mornings scratching of n2 has made the novelties pretty hard to find value. 3 horse boxed tri’s are hard to get but better than wasting bigger amounts on skinny dividends.

1st ; 3 8 9

;2nd ; 3 8 9 $3 quinella / $6 exacta

3rd ; 3 8 9 $6trifecta

4th ; Field $36 First 4

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r1 Hot Mix ; Won impressively on debut after solid trial. Maps to get same run in transit , sitting just off a hot speed. Warm n Fuzzy won a trial by 5 . I personally don’t like backing horses that run along in trials , they often race flat under race pressure and this is 1100m. Leaders Ascot very suitable however and if able to cross no surprise if he keeps going , $2.20 too short to find out. $9 for More Snitzel worth a small saver.

Ascot r7 Excellent Dream; Very fast albeit enigmatic gelding who ran 2nd to Trekking in a trial without blinkers. From barrier 2 it should lead or be right in the firing line and hard to run down. I could entertain having a very small nibble at $18 Mastering. The stable rarely miss with their interstate tried horses. It’s best form which has been missing for some time would be competitive.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Bunbury r8 Beret ; Horses out of Angelique’s Fame races just keep winning. She spanked us first up with a great turn of foot. 1400m suits even more and looks like she is going to rise through the grades this campaign. Pretty short at $1.95 currently but only bad luck or my odds on curse beats her!

Bunbury r7 Angelique’s Fame ; her favourite track and distance Sunday and is set to run another huge race. Her last 2 starts have seen her explode from the back and run into the placings in some serious last 600 sectionals. One day we will draw a decent barrier and settle closer but tomorrow the curse continues as we jump from 8/12 . Apprentice jockey Maddi Derrick has ridden her well in difficult circumstances and now knows what she has under her. With a bit of racing luck we are sure to be in the finish in a race that looks to have chances galore on paper. There are possible showers forecasted , if there was enough to downgrade the track and cut up the inside it would enhance her chances significantly.

Betting Strategy ; Last time the 20/80 win and place worked a charm and I suggest we go the same here. Current odds of $6 / $2,20 seem about right , anything over $2 the place looks acceptable.

Novelties

1st ; 2 3 7 9 10 $6 quinella

2nd ; 2 3 7 9 10 $20 exacta

3rd ; 2 3 4 6 7 9 10 11 $120 trifecta

4th ; 2 3 4 6 7 9 10 11 $600 first 4

*very tough novelties , flexi betting suggested!

Good Luck Ducks , lets hope Santa comes early to Bunbury tomorrow.

Bunbury Quaddie (r5-8); 3 5 6 7 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 , 2 3 7 9 10 , 4 $120 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r5 Tollman; Climbing up in the weights but every time he steps up in class and distance he handles it with aplomb. It’s impossible to see him not fighting out the finish from the perfect draw. Em Tee Eye is a bulldog out in front and in great form down in the weights. First try 1800 , won’t be easy for a 3yo holding off some talented older horses but track likely to assist his cause.

Ascot r3 Don’t Fuss ; Ascot has been a leaders paradise lately , especially in the early races. Don’t Fuss won’t lead and has a pretty ordinary Ascot record. However they could break the landspeed record early here with two speed freaks involved in Condor Heroes and Ziebell . Throw in Mia Dolce and the sparks will be flying. Hopefully Pike will just rail up from barrier 1 and check off heels and pounce. The 1.2 length 4th to Elite St looks a handy form reference for this !

Ascot r8 Midnight Blue; Has taken til this prep to start showing his true potential, not unusual for a traditional staying type. Is eligible for easier but is flying and gets the services of Pike. Has way more upside than most and looks most suited at 2200m out of the key hopes.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Geraldton r6 Kenyluck; This horse takes luck out of the occasion by jumping to the front and from there it’s catch me if you can. Mycroft is coming back from 1600m and Hot Style is yet to win in 5 previous first up attempts . Both are to be respected on their class.

Geraldton r1 Bentley Beau ; Should of won on debut at Bunbury. Trainer places her horses to perfection and the money usually comes in truckloads. Losing odds on pops is a tipsters worst nightmare however I’m willing to put it on the line here.

Geraldton r5 Pagani ; The form out of her two runs this prep stacks up well for this race.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r1 Son Son ; In my opinion the best horse in the race , hoping the instructions are to jump and run from barrier 2 to keep it simple for 4kg claimer engaged. In a field of six , he should get his chance and is weighted to win.

Ascot r5 Gunmetal Grey ; Trialed like a good horse and won well on debut. Drawn to get every chance in running and 3kg claim for inform apprentice makes her well placed to remain undefeated.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Pinjarra r5 Miss Ivy League ; Tried to pinch it out in front first up when racing keenly and running 3rd in a 1200m c3 behind Beret and our very own Angelique’s Fame. That’s very strong form for a c1. First Pinjarra meeting of the season so hard to predict a pattern however seasons gone bye have favored on pace runners . Should be leading halfway up the straight , last 100m could be the query.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Phoneme ; His first few runs for gun trainer Michael Lane were nothing special. He obviously worked him out because towards the end of last campaign and beginning of this one he is flying. Absolutely no luck last run when forced to go back from horror gate and being hopelessly held up before rocketing home. Unplaced at 1600m in five attempts however as stated previously , a different horse now. Another tricky draw to overcome and 60kgs makes jockey Chris Parnham’s job very difficult however on a brutally tough day , I’m happy to make him the best bet on a 30/70 % each way basis.

Ascot r7 Celebrity Queen ; The only question is the 1400m. If she gets it she simply wins. This is often the question for this race with Winterbottom horses stretching out to the 1400m. Class usually prevails and she looks the good thing of the day but is priced accordingly ($2).

Ascot r9 Angelic Miss; Basing this tip on her 1200m form and the fact Chris Parnham gets the best out of her. The form behind her last win is very questionable and failed at Northam yesterday but she is drawn to get a lovely run and is an each way quote.

Ascot r8 Kinstown Town Classic; Quick Overview of the group 1 ; Impossible! Pre barrier draw Inspirational Girl looked close to a moral with the ease with which she won the Railway. Drawn the car park and up to wfa is a task . A horse hasn’t been able to do the double since 2009. We found Truly Great at 50’s in future markets. Ready for the 1800m and further , I expect him to be ridden further back than ok run in the Railway. Not super confident but happy Chris Parnham is back on and $20 is still a decent price . Too Close The Sun looks the barrier draw winner. Much better suited to 1800m and can’t see him not being in front and the one to chase down. The 3yo’s are always very hard to beat under wfa conditions. I don’t rate these ones as good as past 3yo winners but you must respect them. The Three highlighted go in my quaddie and exotics if thats any help.

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Thursday Tips

Northam r1 3Y SW MDN 1000m ; 3 PRIZE PURSUIT PETER KNUCKEY 6 57

Nothing more exciting than selecting and buying a yearling , watching them grow and mature into a racehorse , then getting to the racetrack for their debut .Huey has really impressed us with his work in training and trial performances so far. Peter Knuckey has been on his back since he was broken in and has always said he feels like a very talented horse. He is doing it on raw ability as he is still physically immature and will come back even bigger and stronger next prep. In time we envision 1400-1600m to be his pet distance however he has shown good speed at his trials to give us confidence he can run a race on debut.

At current odds of $4.80 / $2.25 (NTD )I’m Happy to suggest a 40/60 % split of your stake.

1st ; 3 4

2nd 2 3 4 $3 quinella $4 exacta

3rd 2 3 4 $4 trifecta

4th field $12 first 4

Good Luck Ducks and go Huey!

Northam r5 Trevern ; Northam can often suit front runners , that’s where he should settle , hard to run down.

Northam r7 Amelia Bedelia ; The form out of her first up 2nd has been franked by others including our own Angelique’s Fame. Competitive race but is the one to beat on that effort.

Good Luck Ducks GO HUEY!

Wednesday Winners

Bunbury R6 3UP CL3 54+ HCP 5 ANGELIQUE'S FAME MADI DERRICK (A2.0) 6 58.5

Don’t like anything at backable odds today so sharing my blog on our own runner. This is not a tip as such as I have OBEEH (1) rated on top but I will not be betting against my own horse. Below is my assessment of her chances and my bets on the race should you wish to follow.

Her two runs this time in have been full of merit, running good time against quality opponents. It doesn’t get any easier Wednesday with a competitive field nominated to face the starter. Madi Derrick gave her every chance last start and gets another go , her 2kg claim and barrier 6 gives us a great chance to be in the finish.

I have decided against tipping in order for this race.

25/75 % Each Way I have her marked at $8 / $2.60 . She has opened and remained rock steady at $6 / $2,15 (tabtouch) Should ease when percentages come down.

1st ; 1 5 *( 2 3 )

2nd; 1 2 3 5 $6 Quinella / Exacta

3rd ; 1 2 3 5 *$24 trifecta (include 2 and 3 for first in box trifecta)

4th ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10. $60 first 4

• The Early money has been for n8 Leica Jaguar. Consider adding him for 2nd/3rd or include in box trifecta if you want a safer option. I will leave him out at my peril with Angelique’s regular jockey on in Chris Parnham , it will be nervous times if they are fighting it out down the straight!

  GOOD LUCK DUCKS!

Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Geraldton r1 Don’t Argue Buster ; Has a little bit of Metro maiden form , that should be winning this. Jockey Troy Turner is usually very reliable at Geraldton.

Best Value Geraldton r3 Dance of The South ; 3yo filly who at start 2 finished 6 lengths behind Fashion Queen at Bunbury over 1400m. That winner would start $1.04 against these. Put simply it’s a terrible field and specking she can improve as the distances increase while everything else has had their chance. Each Way.

Geraldton r8 Family Discussion ; Has only won 3 from 26 and is going for 3 in a row at this track and distance! Fair to say he has found his calling as a racehorse.

Geraldton r5 Starthefriar ; Special mention of our former warrior . If this was 1400-1500m he would be a bet to nothing. Back down in the weights he can run a big race however will have to sustain a long run from the back . When we had him 1600m was stretching him to his limit. For this reason it’s not a tip but we will be cheering for him all the same. Definitely goes in the Quaddie.

Geraldton Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 3 , 1 2 7 8 10 , 5 9 , 1 . $10 for 100%

Geraldton Quaddie (r5-8); 3 4 5 6 10 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 11 , 1 7 , 4. $90 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r3 Island Missile ; Finally broke a very long drought last start winning a midweek c5 with a solid finishing burst. Hasn’t done much wrong since landing in WA and while this is technically a Saturday race in the middle of the masters , It’s only a 1 metro 57+ and the opposition doesn’t look much tougher. Has a good record at 1400m.

Ascot r4 I’m Pretty ; Steps up to 1400m first time this prep and even more importantly gets Pike. Pike can improve any horse but this horse has looked a Saturday horse at times when Pike rides and ordinary midweek battler without. The Each Way bet of the day.

Ascot r9 Betting Strategy; Stageman each way.

Novelties

1st ; 1 8 16

2nd ; 1 2 8 16 ( $6 quinella $9 Exacta)

3rd ; 1 2 4.​6.​7.​8.​12.​13.​16 ($ 63 Trifecta)

4th ; 1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​12.​13.​15.​16 ($567 First4)

Ascot r10 Money Maher ; Injury has robbed this very talented horse of a shot at some of the big races. He should be nearing peak fitness 3rd up off a long spell and somewhere near his best would account for this field . Each way.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Narrogin r5 Orange Strudel ; 7yo mare who hasn’t won for a while but along with Foo Trouble , has generally raced in stronger company. I’m not a fan of backing horses with 60+ kgs which leaves me with Orange Strudel as the one to beat.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Bunbury r6 Sheza Chalmer ; Been impressed with her two starts to date . Gave a good kick this track and distance last start to easily hold off a highly regarded odds on favourite. The step from maiden grade to c1 is never easy but with natural progression she is the one to beat.

Bunbury r5 Black Venture ; Not many Blackfriars progeny look sharp over 930m at lark hill trials , this fella has been doing it with seemingly plenty left in the tank.

Bunbury r8 On Red Alert ; Was a class above them this track and distance last start. C1 to C5 is a massive step up however both horse and jockey are flying. The money has already come for Tradensia. I thought 60kg’s first up was an ask however home track , 2/2 at the distance and this stable rarely miss when the money is on so very wary.

Bunbury Quaddie ; 8 , 8 , field , 4 . $14 for 100% * While three standout legs is very tough to land it keeps it cheap and If we back them to win as singles then if 2/3 win we still come out on top.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Bunbury r7 Agent Jay ; Impressive win first up , running on hard over 1000m same track. Loves Bunbury and 1200m suits 2nd up.

Bunbury r4 Treasured Prize; Solid 3rd on debut despite working. Has Pike to negotiate the tough draw today.

Bunbury r6 ( 1 2 ) 4 5 ; Duckgirl ie Angelique’s Fame is 2nd up today. Think it is primarily a race between her and Beret. Snippirahana and Miss Ivy League other chances. Box trifecta or just cheer hard for Angelique’s. She’s a bit short to back for mine .

Bunbury r9 Heaven’s Gift ; Looks ready for the trip 3rd up. Her form behind Chantrea in this distance range is very strong for this.

Bunbury Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; field , 9 , 9 , 1 2 . $22 for 100%

Bunbury Quaddie (r7-10) ; 2 6 , 2 10 , 3 , 3 4 9 . $6 for 100%

Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r9 Pym’s Royale / Flow ; Two bet strategy for our best bet today as I’m keen to take on the favourite. Pym’s was 6 weeks between runs when running on into 2nd behind Money Matters in the Hannans at Kalgoorlie . That horse controlled the race from the front and was flying at the time. Again ran on late in the Northam Cup over 1600m on a leaders track behind another all the way winner. Nice tick over trial since and has the turn of foot to win this. Flow has run 2nd at his last two , again in the Northam Cup and last week behind key Railway hope Truly Great where they put a space on the rest. Laverod is a nice horse but gross unders at $3 in my opinion.

Ascot r1 Long Beach ; We rock up to Railway Stakes day and race 1’s market is fittingly dominated by a Peter’s horse to be ridden by Pike . Can be a bit hit and miss , but in a field of 6 he should get clear air and round these up. Boomtastic will give him something to catch and looks the quinella / exacta horse.

Ascot r 8 RAILWAY STAKES

SELECTIONS ; 1ST 4 KAY CEE , 2ND 11 INSPIRATIONAL GIRL 3RD 15 TRULY GREAT 4TH 2 MATERIAL MAN

BETTING STRATEGY ; 50% of stake on KAY CEE win and 50% on TRULY GREAT each way.

Novelties

1st ; 4 11 15

2nd ; 2 4 11 14 15 ($10 quinella $12 exacta )

3rd & 4th ; 1 2 4 9 11 12 14 15 ($72 trifecta $360 first4 )

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Northam r7 American Choice ; Although it ran last at latest run it wasn’t beaten that far and this is a massive drop in class. Should get every possible from gate 1 and the 3kg claim comes in handy.

Northam r6 Mr Delegator; Promising middle distance type first up over 1300m. Better over further however this isn’t strong and he won a 1200m trial leading in.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r8 Aberdeen Queen ; Sits 4 ratings points above the 2nd highest rated runner and has a 50% career winning strike rate. Great opportunity for visiting Victorian 3kg claiming apprentice Carleen Hefel to win a metro race. First up no trial , the market will play a key role in telling us if she’s ready. Definitely advise to wait and see , a big drift would turn me off betting.

Ascot r6 Holyoake ; She has been getting a long way back and flying home over 1400m. 2nd up she broke her maiden and 3rd up she ran 2nd to the talented Brave Dream. Ready for a crack at 1600m .

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r7 Snickerdoodledandy ; Looks best suited to the step up to 1600m considering it only got going late in the Burgess Queen (1400m) and was pulling away from them on the line. Wet track no issue at all. Magical Dream has same explosive turn of foot however likely to get too far back .

Ascot r3 Eeyore Wayz ; Drops from WFA to a 66+ and carries same weight (58.5kgs). Very effective over 1000m and on wet ground. Hate betting against The Lane Train. Resortman is all class however draw and 1000m not ideal .

Ascot r4 Kelvin; Hard horse to catch both as a punter and when he’s on song and running along in front. Big effort first up when working hard early and only run down late by two smart ones. Kinder map gives him a big chance.

Ascot r5 Truly Great ; Last chance to qualify for the Railway. He is my early pick for both the Railway and Kingston Town so need him to win. We already found him at $51 for the Kingston . I’m more interested in the $13 for the Railway (Bet 365) than piling into the $1.85 to qualify. 1500m is the only concern, hopefully you can make ground today , small field helps with that. The Media Baron from last prep would be very hard to beat. No surprise if he ran a big race at $19.

r5 Novelties; 1st 9

2nd 3 8 $2 exacta/Quinella

3rd / 4th field $14 trifecta $84 first four.

Ascot r8 Stageman ; Making a bad habit of blowing the start. Been flooding home from impossible positions in similar fields. Only needs to jump and hold a midfield spot to be right in the finish. Each way.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Bunbury r1 Kimberley Boy ; On debut coming off some impressive trials. From leading yard and looks a Saturday horse in the making. Currently $1.90 , I’m hoping for even money minimum.

Bunbury r2 Testing Love ; Stormed home on debut behind an all the way winner. That runner then went back to back yesterday. Another shorty that should be winning, a good multi option with our best bet in r1.

Bunbury r4 Noble Laurence; Came from last to 3rd on debut . 2nd then won a Saturday race and the winner ran 2nd again yesterday in a c3.

Bunbury Early Quaddie (r1-4); 3 , 10 , 1 2 3 4 8 12 , 7 . $6 for 100%

Bunbury r7 ; Selections 1st 7 ANGELIQUE'S FAME , 2nd 5 AGENT JAY 3rd 4 AMELIA BEDELIA 4th 6 FOO TROUBLE

Summary ; In a likely wide open market , luck in running or best ride probably decides the winner. No better combination than Michael Lane and Chris Parnham operate out of Bunbury and we are called Lucky Duck so putting us on top! No surprise to see Agent Jay alongside the whole way , Amelia Bedelia getting every opportunity and Foo Trouble the best of the leaders. The chances don’t end there.

Betting Strategy ; Has Opened $5 / $2 Think it will drift out. I suggest 20/80 split to maximize profit out of place.

Novelties 1st ; 5 7

2nd ; 4 5 6 7 ($6 Quinella / Exacta )

3rd ; 2 4 5 6 7 10 12 ( $60 Trifecta)

4th ; 2 4 5 6 7 10 12 ($240 first4)

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