Best Bet Bunbury r3 Mischievous Diva ; Hasn’t learnt how to put a field away hence is always catching the eye running on without winning. Drawn better in a very weak field, she wont get a better opportunity.
Bunbury r4 Ginger Baker; Was beaten by the current favourite Apache Patrol first up over 1200m. Then won his maiden over 1400m which he stays at for the return clash. 3rd up with a run at 1400m under his belt gives him his chance to turn the tables.
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Best Bet Albany r3 Losing Ticket ; Last three runs in this distance range were good enough to run a big race here at each way prices.
Albany r4 Big Bada Boom ; Although Sowar has the ratings to win this , I can’t accept $1.90 for a horse that has only won 2 from 17 and has to carry 61kgs even with a 3kg claimer on. His Albany record does suggest he is the one to beat but at the odds I prefer to go with Pike on a horse that appreciated getting to the mile at just start 3 .
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Best Bet Geraldton r4 All In Red ; Half sister to our very own Prize Pursuit and is showing real potential . Loves this track and distance , $5.50 each way looks overs.
Ascot r3 La Farola; $3.50 for a last start Saturday winner who also ran out of her skin against the older horses first up vs $2 for a gelding that demolished a weak maiden on debut. Interestingly Parnham got off last start and Pike picked up the ride. The same thing as happened here with Parnham getting back on after riding the fav on debut. Going for the value, hopefully he has chosen right this time.
Ascot r2 Sniparoochy ; Looks a race in two and am of the belief the favourite has too much speed despite drawing outside her main rival. The stable is flying.
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Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Ginger Flyer ; Expecting a case of deja vu from her first up run where she jumped to the front and won with a leg in the air over this distance.
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Best Bet Ascot r6 Naughty By Nature ; Run of the race in the Starstruck when undone by the lack of pace. Faces same conundrum here but hoping the step up to 1800m see’s the on pace runners out. Very confident she runs top 3 and she is an each way price.
Ascot r5 Platinum Bullet ; Was 3 wide without cover last start and still managed to out bob a smart one . Pike jumps on and she should be charging at the line again.
Perth Cup ; Not a straight out betting race for me. Truly Great has a lap on them class rise but barrier 12 with 60kg’s out to 2400m is still a test for any horse. Neufbosc is flying and should get every opportunity from barrier 5 with 54kgs. Adornment is flying but will need to go forward and find a spot from barrier 16.
Novelties
1st ; 1 4
2nd ; 1 4 6 13 $6 quinella / exacta
3rd ; 1 3 4 5 6 7 9 12 13 14 15 16 $60 trifecta
4th ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 12 13 14 15 16 $600 first 4
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Best Value Pinjarra r7 Flower Of Scotland ; On paper she is drawn and weighted terribly with an inexperienced apprentice booked. She will be posted off the track all the way with 61.5kgs in a much harder race than last time. Funny thing about this mare is that’s when she runs her best races. She has won 4/7 this track and at $26/$6 we don’t have to have much on to have a throw at the stumps.
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Best Bet Ascot r8 Neufbosc; Put the writing on the wall last start with a strong finishing 2nd where the winner got a picnic in front. The grand final will be next weeks Perth Cup however looks like taking this out on the way.
Ascot r2 Hot Mix; Unbeaten filly who faces her toughest test to date but looks capable of going on with it. Has a sharp turn of foot. I presume Chris Parnham had the choice over La Farola who now gets Pike. She is the clear danger and quinella horse.
Ascot r4 Son Of A God ; Trialed like a beast and maps to get world perfect trail on Ziebell who is flying but suspect at 1200m. Price is gone ($2.20 - $1.80 ) but good multi leg.
Ascot r5 Mr Kunafa ; Very quietly ridden 2nd up after getting back to last. Expect a peak performance today at each way price. Kelly’s Callisto is the horse to beat. Definitely at least save on him.
Best Value Ascot r7 Agent Jay; Won’t need to work as hard early from good gate this time. Was still only beaten 1.7 l and has the option of taking a sit with good speed engaged. Suggest 20/80 staking plan.
Ascot Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 3 10 , field , 8 , 2 4 7 . $66 for 100%
Ascot Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1 3 4 5 6 , 1 2 3 9 10 , 2 , 1 6 9 10 11 12 . $150 for 100%
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Best Bet Bunbury r5 Real Passion; Pike travels to Bunbury for team Cerise N White on a regally bred daughter of Pierro on debut. Latest trial was eye catching , weaving through from last under little riding. It is short enough due to the connections and rider but should open her account on debut.
Best Value Bunbury r8 Adore Me; Made ground from last on debut over 1100m. The run was missed by punters as she went round at $26 next start and finished over the top of them over 1400m. If she improves again and can get a reasonable run from tricky gate she can run a race at $12/$3.40.
Bunbury Quaddie (r5-8); 7 8 , 1 2 8 9 10 , 1 , 1 9. $20 for 100%
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Best Bet Ascot r8 Dew West ; Was given an absolute peach by Pike first up , landing in the one one from the outside barrier and strong on the line with 60kg. Drops to 55.5kgs and if Pike can slot in again she will be awfully hard to beat. If Miss Ivy League can cross Ladies of London then she can run a cheeky race at each way prices.
Novelties
1st ; 5 12
2nd ; 1 5 11 12 ($6 boxed trifecta $6 exacta)
3rd ; 1 5 8 10 11 12 ($24 trifecta)
4th ; 1 2 5 7 8 10 11 12 14 ($144 First 4)
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Pinjarra r5 1200 MDN; 3 PRIZE PURSUIT MITCHELL PATEMAN ( 4 ) 56.5 kg
After an encouraging 2nd over 1000m on debut , Prize Pursuit has opened $3.70 favourite ($3.10 after scratchings / support ) for an all aged 1200m maiden at Pinjarra Park this Thursday. He derived great benefit out of his first up run and his work since suggests he will be fighting out the finish. Drawn perfectly in 4 , he has good natural pace and will come out positive. If something wants to keep him out or attack relentlessly from out wide then he is versatile enough to let them go and run on. Mischievous Diva is the class dropper and Heels a Plenty knocking on the door , both will have to either do some work or give us a head start from their wider draws.
Betting Strategy ; 100 % Wins . Was hoping for $1.80 place to go each way , you might even get it closer to jump. Looks like one of those races that punters will back a few . For now I suggest just a medium win bet and no need to go yet .
Novelties ; * This Mornings scratching of n2 has made the novelties pretty hard to find value. 3 horse boxed tri’s are hard to get but better than wasting bigger amounts on skinny dividends.
1st ; 3 8 9
;2nd ; 3 8 9 $3 quinella / $6 exacta
3rd ; 3 8 9 $6trifecta
4th ; Field $36 First 4
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Best Bet Ascot r1 Hot Mix ; Won impressively on debut after solid trial. Maps to get same run in transit , sitting just off a hot speed. Warm n Fuzzy won a trial by 5 . I personally don’t like backing horses that run along in trials , they often race flat under race pressure and this is 1100m. Leaders Ascot very suitable however and if able to cross no surprise if he keeps going , $2.20 too short to find out. $9 for More Snitzel worth a small saver.
Ascot r7 Excellent Dream; Very fast albeit enigmatic gelding who ran 2nd to Trekking in a trial without blinkers. From barrier 2 it should lead or be right in the firing line and hard to run down. I could entertain having a very small nibble at $18 Mastering. The stable rarely miss with their interstate tried horses. It’s best form which has been missing for some time would be competitive.
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Best Bet Bunbury r8 Beret ; Horses out of Angelique’s Fame races just keep winning. She spanked us first up with a great turn of foot. 1400m suits even more and looks like she is going to rise through the grades this campaign. Pretty short at $1.95 currently but only bad luck or my odds on curse beats her!
Bunbury r7 Angelique’s Fame ; her favourite track and distance Sunday and is set to run another huge race. Her last 2 starts have seen her explode from the back and run into the placings in some serious last 600 sectionals. One day we will draw a decent barrier and settle closer but tomorrow the curse continues as we jump from 8/12 . Apprentice jockey Maddi Derrick has ridden her well in difficult circumstances and now knows what she has under her. With a bit of racing luck we are sure to be in the finish in a race that looks to have chances galore on paper. There are possible showers forecasted , if there was enough to downgrade the track and cut up the inside it would enhance her chances significantly.
Betting Strategy ; Last time the 20/80 win and place worked a charm and I suggest we go the same here. Current odds of $6 / $2,20 seem about right , anything over $2 the place looks acceptable.
Novelties
1st ; 2 3 7 9 10 $6 quinella
2nd ; 2 3 7 9 10 $20 exacta
3rd ; 2 3 4 6 7 9 10 11 $120 trifecta
4th ; 2 3 4 6 7 9 10 11 $600 first 4
*very tough novelties , flexi betting suggested!
Good Luck Ducks , lets hope Santa comes early to Bunbury tomorrow.
Bunbury Quaddie (r5-8); 3 5 6 7 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 , 2 3 7 9 10 , 4 $120 for 100%
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Best Bet Ascot r5 Tollman; Climbing up in the weights but every time he steps up in class and distance he handles it with aplomb. It’s impossible to see him not fighting out the finish from the perfect draw. Em Tee Eye is a bulldog out in front and in great form down in the weights. First try 1800 , won’t be easy for a 3yo holding off some talented older horses but track likely to assist his cause.
Ascot r3 Don’t Fuss ; Ascot has been a leaders paradise lately , especially in the early races. Don’t Fuss won’t lead and has a pretty ordinary Ascot record. However they could break the landspeed record early here with two speed freaks involved in Condor Heroes and Ziebell . Throw in Mia Dolce and the sparks will be flying. Hopefully Pike will just rail up from barrier 1 and check off heels and pounce. The 1.2 length 4th to Elite St looks a handy form reference for this !
Ascot r8 Midnight Blue; Has taken til this prep to start showing his true potential, not unusual for a traditional staying type. Is eligible for easier but is flying and gets the services of Pike. Has way more upside than most and looks most suited at 2200m out of the key hopes.
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Best Bet Geraldton r6 Kenyluck; This horse takes luck out of the occasion by jumping to the front and from there it’s catch me if you can. Mycroft is coming back from 1600m and Hot Style is yet to win in 5 previous first up attempts . Both are to be respected on their class.
Geraldton r1 Bentley Beau ; Should of won on debut at Bunbury. Trainer places her horses to perfection and the money usually comes in truckloads. Losing odds on pops is a tipsters worst nightmare however I’m willing to put it on the line here.
Geraldton r5 Pagani ; The form out of her two runs this prep stacks up well for this race.
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Best Bet Ascot r1 Son Son ; In my opinion the best horse in the race , hoping the instructions are to jump and run from barrier 2 to keep it simple for 4kg claimer engaged. In a field of six , he should get his chance and is weighted to win.
Ascot r5 Gunmetal Grey ; Trialed like a good horse and won well on debut. Drawn to get every chance in running and 3kg claim for inform apprentice makes her well placed to remain undefeated.
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Best Bet Pinjarra r5 Miss Ivy League ; Tried to pinch it out in front first up when racing keenly and running 3rd in a 1200m c3 behind Beret and our very own Angelique’s Fame. That’s very strong form for a c1. First Pinjarra meeting of the season so hard to predict a pattern however seasons gone bye have favored on pace runners . Should be leading halfway up the straight , last 100m could be the query.
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Best Bet Ascot r2 Phoneme ; His first few runs for gun trainer Michael Lane were nothing special. He obviously worked him out because towards the end of last campaign and beginning of this one he is flying. Absolutely no luck last run when forced to go back from horror gate and being hopelessly held up before rocketing home. Unplaced at 1600m in five attempts however as stated previously , a different horse now. Another tricky draw to overcome and 60kgs makes jockey Chris Parnham’s job very difficult however on a brutally tough day , I’m happy to make him the best bet on a 30/70 % each way basis.
Ascot r7 Celebrity Queen ; The only question is the 1400m. If she gets it she simply wins. This is often the question for this race with Winterbottom horses stretching out to the 1400m. Class usually prevails and she looks the good thing of the day but is priced accordingly ($2).
Ascot r9 Angelic Miss; Basing this tip on her 1200m form and the fact Chris Parnham gets the best out of her. The form behind her last win is very questionable and failed at Northam yesterday but she is drawn to get a lovely run and is an each way quote.
Ascot r8 Kinstown Town Classic; Quick Overview of the group 1 ; Impossible! Pre barrier draw Inspirational Girl looked close to a moral with the ease with which she won the Railway. Drawn the car park and up to wfa is a task . A horse hasn’t been able to do the double since 2009. We found Truly Great at 50’s in future markets. Ready for the 1800m and further , I expect him to be ridden further back than ok run in the Railway. Not super confident but happy Chris Parnham is back on and $20 is still a decent price . Too Close The Sun looks the barrier draw winner. Much better suited to 1800m and can’t see him not being in front and the one to chase down. The 3yo’s are always very hard to beat under wfa conditions. I don’t rate these ones as good as past 3yo winners but you must respect them. The Three highlighted go in my quaddie and exotics if thats any help.
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Northam r1 3Y SW MDN 1000m ; 3 PRIZE PURSUIT PETER KNUCKEY 6 57
Nothing more exciting than selecting and buying a yearling , watching them grow and mature into a racehorse , then getting to the racetrack for their debut .Huey has really impressed us with his work in training and trial performances so far. Peter Knuckey has been on his back since he was broken in and has always said he feels like a very talented horse. He is doing it on raw ability as he is still physically immature and will come back even bigger and stronger next prep. In time we envision 1400-1600m to be his pet distance however he has shown good speed at his trials to give us confidence he can run a race on debut.
At current odds of $4.80 / $2.25 (NTD )I’m Happy to suggest a 40/60 % split of your stake.
1st ; 3 4
2nd 2 3 4 $3 quinella $4 exacta
3rd 2 3 4 $4 trifecta
4th field $12 first 4
Good Luck Ducks and go Huey!
Northam r5 Trevern ; Northam can often suit front runners , that’s where he should settle , hard to run down.
Northam r7 Amelia Bedelia ; The form out of her first up 2nd has been franked by others including our own Angelique’s Fame. Competitive race but is the one to beat on that effort.
Good Luck Ducks GO HUEY!
Bunbury R6 3UP CL3 54+ HCP 5 ANGELIQUE'S FAME MADI DERRICK (A2.0) 6 58.5
Don’t like anything at backable odds today so sharing my blog on our own runner. This is not a tip as such as I have OBEEH (1) rated on top but I will not be betting against my own horse. Below is my assessment of her chances and my bets on the race should you wish to follow.
Her two runs this time in have been full of merit, running good time against quality opponents. It doesn’t get any easier Wednesday with a competitive field nominated to face the starter. Madi Derrick gave her every chance last start and gets another go , her 2kg claim and barrier 6 gives us a great chance to be in the finish.
I have decided against tipping in order for this race.
25/75 % Each Way I have her marked at $8 / $2.60 . She has opened and remained rock steady at $6 / $2,15 (tabtouch) Should ease when percentages come down.
1st ; 1 5 *( 2 3 )
2nd; 1 2 3 5 $6 Quinella / Exacta
3rd ; 1 2 3 5 *$24 trifecta (include 2 and 3 for first in box trifecta)
4th ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10. $60 first 4
The Early money has been for n8 Leica Jaguar. Consider adding him for 2nd/3rd or include in box trifecta if you want a safer option. I will leave him out at my peril with Angelique’s regular jockey on in Chris Parnham , it will be nervous times if they are fighting it out down the straight!
GOOD LUCK DUCKS!
Best Bet Geraldton r1 Don’t Argue Buster ; Has a little bit of Metro maiden form , that should be winning this. Jockey Troy Turner is usually very reliable at Geraldton.
Best Value Geraldton r3 Dance of The South ; 3yo filly who at start 2 finished 6 lengths behind Fashion Queen at Bunbury over 1400m. That winner would start $1.04 against these. Put simply it’s a terrible field and specking she can improve as the distances increase while everything else has had their chance. Each Way.
Geraldton r8 Family Discussion ; Has only won 3 from 26 and is going for 3 in a row at this track and distance! Fair to say he has found his calling as a racehorse.
Geraldton r5 Starthefriar ; Special mention of our former warrior . If this was 1400-1500m he would be a bet to nothing. Back down in the weights he can run a big race however will have to sustain a long run from the back . When we had him 1600m was stretching him to his limit. For this reason it’s not a tip but we will be cheering for him all the same. Definitely goes in the Quaddie.
Geraldton Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 3 , 1 2 7 8 10 , 5 9 , 1 . $10 for 100%
Geraldton Quaddie (r5-8); 3 4 5 6 10 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 11 , 1 7 , 4. $90 for 100%
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