Thursday Tips

Northam r6 Celebrity Witness ; Is going really well this campaign. Won it’s maiden this track and distance and I feel it can give the favourite something to run down at the better odds. Sparkling Jewel is obviously talented and produced a big finish to win her maiden on debut. We have mentioned before the difficulty in going from a maiden to a c1 and this is a c3. Can definitely win but shouldn’t be odds on. Small bet on our selection instead.

Best Bet Northam r8 Winnie’s Wine (Place) ; Is going much better since dropping back to the sprint trips. Although stepping up to a c3 it stays on the minimum and 1100 suits better than the 1000m. 1 win from 29 suggests we best stick mainly to the place . Jarman goes close with a repeat of first up run. Like most of these mixes his form and not sure about drop in distance.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r2 Rulelee ; Has had 2 starts over the 1000m and both times it has come from miles back to finish off hard. Extra 200m looks ideal . Nitro Fred was equally impressive on debut but was used early to lead and gave a good kick to only just get run down. If it jumps better and gets it softer then it will be hard to run down . Early money has been for the newcomer Red Fifty Three . Was a nice trial but drawn to do some work if it wants to race forward hence I’m going with the swooper at the better odds of the three.

Best Bet Belmont r4 Smashing; While she’s no star , I keep coming back to our carnival last year where she was only beaten 4.5 lengths in the Guineas and 2.7 in the Lee Steere. Last start wasn’t a hot field by any stretch however she got lost then flew home to score. The 2nd horse has since won.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r5 Blazing Billy ; Won his first up run to make it 3/6 when running down Strathmore Rose on a heavy 10. That horse then won in this grade next start. Extra fitness , just as effective on dry ground , Pike and barrier 1 look to be a winning combination.

Belmont r9 Captain Kaos ; Has a 50% winning strike rate and is rapidly rising through the grades. Has a sharp turn of foot and his 1200m record is impeccable.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Northam r6 Lonehand Larry ; Close up finishes behind horses in graduation company just has to be the right form here, especially last start. Back on top of the ground should suit . Looks very hard to beat.

Northam r7 Starlift ; Pretty much backing the fact that Pike will give it every possible chance from the good barrier. Castillo Del Lago most likely has lengths on these ability wise , but will have to do some work in the run first up for a young jockey still finding her feet. For this reason only I’m backing “Pikeinthelast”.

Northam Quaddie (r4-7) ; 11 , field , 2 , 1 2 5 8 . $40 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r7 Campese ; Stable brought him over from Victoria with a big opinion on him. Horror start with him pulling up sore first up as a heavily backed favourite. 2nd up he showed he had recovered with a barnstorming 2nd alongside Kaptain Kaos who boasts a 50% winning strike rate. Will be storming home over the top again providing he see’s daylight. * Trainer’s opinion is he is a better horse on top of the ground. Current rating of soft 5 is fine , if it deteriorates past a 6 closer to the heavy range then I would not be betting.

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Thursday Tips

Pinjarra r8 Angelique’s Fame ; At the current odds $8 / $3 (bet365) I’m happy to play on a 10/90 % basis . ie $1 win and $9 place for every $10 spent. While she hasn’t won for a while she also hasn’t been beaten far. Will be disappointed if she doesn’t go very close to placing in this line up.

Novelties 1st & 2nd ; 1 4 ($1 Quinella $2 Exacta)

3rd & 4th ; 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 ($16 trifecta $112 first 4 )

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r2 Treasured Crown; Is 2/2 in clashes with Zaratite yet still opens 2nd favourite vs odds on. Granted Zaratite was unlucky the first clash but Treasured Crown took a sit in a sprint home. Next clash the jockey turned it into a true staying test and he clearly had his measure. Vital CJP uses these tactics again, then we are a huge chance. As close to a good thing quinella you will ever see.

Best Bet Belmont r4 Nobel Laurance ; Always rated this horse and last start was his best win. Aided by a rails hugging gem of a ride , he beat home Reign of Fire who franked the form with an effortless victory next start. Should be ready for a peak performance 3rd up, the only question is price. $1.95 is rock bottom , most likely includes “Pike tax”.

Belmont r6 Lonsdale Lady ; Has a superb wet track record and has run well in much better races than this. Beat Zaratite who was long odds on a month ago. That’s the burning question , why so long between runs when the tracks have been super wet . If she’s 100% she’s a great bet. Will have to rely on the market as an indication.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r5 Ghobella; Faces very similar conditions (wet ) to last start where she was heavily backed and never looked like losing. Carries the same weight after 3kg claim . Strawberry Mist is a nice horse and will be fitter for the rematch. Wouldn’t think she could make up nearly 5 lengths though .

Belmont r6 Darcele ; Could almost just copy and paste the reasoning behind the tip above. Raced on the same day but this time only got run down late by the favourite , beating everything else convincingly. The dangers according to the betting again come from the same race so in the same conditions she must be the one to beat. These stayers do mix their form more than others though so a little more cautious.

Belmont r9 Angelique’s Fame ; Not a tip but a rundown on our own runner’s chances. Raced on the same day as the two tips above. 2nd up after a big first up run in testing conditions with 59kg’s all proved a bit too much but as usual she fought it out and wasn’t beaten far. Hopefully the track plays fairer or aids backmarkers tomorrow as doing no work early and rushing home late seems to be her go. She drops to 55kgs to go up to c5 company , same as when she ran a nose 2nd first up. As far as a tip goes I can’t split the three favs in Ohbeeh , Jag the Joker and Snippy Miss. Obh will look to cross from the wide gate and the other two slot in right behind him. These 3 dominate the market then it’s dbl figures the rest. Our current price of $14/$3.70 is about right , she will need luck due to her racing pattern but if conditions enable horses to run on she won’t be far away.

Box Trifecta 1 7 8 9 ; Hopefully our girl adds some value into the trifecta. You could literally pick any runner to put in with the three favs so obviously we will throw her in.

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r3 Wilcino ; Forget first up run when blew out in the market and pulled up with issues. Despite that run she was hammered as soon as markets opened 2nd up and bounced back to her brilliant best. Her best runs have been on good tracks where she has smashed the clock so drier ground should assist a peak performance. Best winning chance of day but not much value in the $2 on offer.

Best Bet Belmont r4 Vital Flirt ; Unlike previous race this one has a clear advantage on really wet tracks. If the rain doesn’t arrive on time she has still won 3 races on good and it won’t be rock hard by any stretch. Has gone from a Northam c1 winner at $34 to Saturday winner this prep when one of the favourites , such has been her improvement. The whole field has some hope but $5 for a mare in her form is a good bet.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Decoy Belle; Won her maiden with authority this track and distance last start as a Lucky Duck best bet. History says that beating horses who have won 1 race is definitively harder than horses who haven’t. This makes the current $3.30 (hammered in from $4.20 opening and now slowly getting out again) pretty skinny. She is drawn to get the run of the race and should have natural improvement left so seeing as finding winners has been like finding hen’s teeth the last few weeks we are going to go again.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r7 Miss Vasari ; Demolished a very moderate midweek field first up on heavy. This is much harder but can only be fitter and small field means her turn of foot will be very dangerous no matter how the track plays. No value in current price but it’s a pretty ordinary days racing and this is the horse I’m most confident can win.

Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1 7 , 7 ,field , 1 7 . $40 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r1 Kelly’s Hero ; Luckless at Kal debut when couldn’t get a run . 1400m should suit and Chris Parnham takes the ride in search of the Australian Jockeys Premiership.

Kalgoorlie r4 Star Present ; Ex Hong Kong galloper which is very rare for a mare and obviously she appreciated the change of environment as she won her maiden easily despite racing greenly. Thre is more depth to this field but natural improvement makes her hard to beat.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r4 Treasured Crown ; Appreciated the step up to a staying trip first time this prep when put into the race a long way out and smashing them in the heavy conditions. Rock hard fit and facing another wet track , I’ll lean his way over the favourite Zaratite. He is 3rd up from a long spell and stepping up from 1650m. Both Peters Investments horses , Williams vs Durrant , Pike vs Parnham , sets up an intriguing clash. Hopefully Parnham turns it into another real staying test and the race fitness wins out.

Best Value Belmont r7 Spookwood ; Don’t ask me where this 6yo’s form has come from but it’s last 3 starts for 2 wins and a second have been full of merit. Scratchings have dented the value tag somewhat for this tougher assignment however from the draw a repeat of it’s recent runs has him fighting out the finish. Each way bet over the deserved favourite Notorious One. If his manners ever get sorted he could even have a big race victory in him , very hard to beat but also hard to ride and hard to invest money on.

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Thursday Tips

Pinjarra r4 Wise Cracker ; Good thing beaten last start when having our best bet tag (sigh) . Held up most of the straight before being swamped by a roughie who had all the momentum in clear air down the outside. Needs to win 1 sooner rather than later but has placed 6/7 and we butter up again.

Pinjarra r5 Wings Away ; Was a month between runs last start when in the fight but failed to land the knockout punch. Two prior placings were good form references for this. From the draw should get a soft run and be fighting it out again.

Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Decoy Belle ; Was first up over 1500m on heavy when he put in a huge performance to come 3rd in a hot form race despite working wide throughout. The winner bolted in yesterday and runner up won a weak maiden ears pricked last week.

Pinjarra Quaddie (r5-8) ; 5 , 3 10 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 , 1 6 8 $48 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

* Once again we are faced with a very wet track for this midweek meeting. Doing the form the night before on a soft 7 but predicting it to get into the heavy range. Last Saturday the rail was red hot , there is a cutaway in play tomorrow so who knows if there will be a bias . Can only tip on the presumption it plays fair. Suggest small stakes and if a clear bias emerges early then save your money for a better day.

Best Bet Belmont r1 Takemehometonight; On pace runner that handles wet ground. Somethingready looked unlucky last start but has a habit of looking unlucky every start. The two newcomers have trialed ok , tough conditions to debut in .

Best Value Belmont r4 Divine Quest ; Two months ago ran consecutive 2nds over 1400m against horses that would start pretty short priced favourites in this , 1 of them on heavy. Last start over 1600 was very disappointing however it can bounce back here. Only the 2 wins from 26 means definately go each way. Drawn wide to swoop down outside so any rail bias like Saturday a big issue.

Belmont r7 Forest War ; Took ground off an all the way winner in Saturday grade on heavy last start. Needs a fair track and to run out a strong 1200m but is the one to beat on that run.

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r4 Blackwater Bay ; Things haven’t worked out last two but given a decent run in transit he is at least capable of running the trip on wet ground.Most of the others are on trial at the trip and in testing conditions that wont be easy.

Best Bet Belmont r5 Tena Koutou ; Won the Aquanita with ears pricked over 2000m indicating the extra 200m would only suit better and is unbeaten on soft ground.

Belmont r9 The Spruiker ; Jumped off last start due to the barrier but slotted in perfectly and made it 3/3 for the preparation. Draws well this time and this is no harder. Back on the bandwagon .

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Thursday Tips

Northam r5 Angelique’s Fame ; for full write up head to the main blog but happy to back her on a 25/75 basis from the ideal draw on her preferred wet surface off a good trial win.

Best Bet Northam r6 Campese ; Lightly raced 4yo with upside having first start in the West for the Lane Train Has a great fresh record , handles wet ground and his Victorian form is good enough to be very competitive here. Smaller bet on the inform Little Flirt for insurance.

Best Value Northam r8 Gallant Ranger ; Has been building nicely all three runs this time in . First two got back from bad gates and found the line strongly, last start was back to 1400m and the last 100m indicated he is screaming out for the mile. Hopefully tops off a huge day for the Lane / Chris Parnham combo at a big each way price.

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Wednesday Winners

* Wet and Windy conditions combined with midweek quality horses confront us today. We will be betting small stakes as it’s hard to be confident in such a scenario.

Belmont r2 Wuhan Warrior; Kicked off it’s campaign in Saturday grade when took a sit on the front runners and ran into 3rd in restricted room. With strong winds forecast, barrier 11 could be an issue if he’s caught wide punching into it but if he can get across or slot in he should run a big race.

Belmont r3 Luke’s Choice ; Good win here 2 back over 1650 on soft before stretching out over 2200 and being caught deep throughout. Back to 1700 on wet ground with the use of a 3kg claim see’s him ideally placed to run top 3.

Best Bet Belmont r9 Vital Flirt ; 4yo mare having a brilliant campaign. Ran straight past our own Prize Pursuit, then should of beat Luke’s Choice (see how he goes r3) , then brained them in a class 3 at Northam. This is a step up again and yet to win on soft ground however she is a different horse to previous campaigns and if she handles the conditions I think she’ll win again. Wetter the better for Street Fair so conditions should suit , if you can win out wide from the back then he should run a big race also.

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r3 OHbeeh ; Loves it wet and can sit either in front or outside the leader and keep kicking. Classy Macro the clear danger.

Best Favourite Belmont r4 Zaratite; 2nd to Naughty By Nature stands out like a beacon here. The scratching of Playing Marika however has put him into a good things price.

Best Value Belmont r5 Bandelera Beau ; Was our best bet at the midweeks when was ridden aggressively on speed and left a sitting duck for Multinational who gave it windburn. Hoping they revert to taking a sit and considering it was $2.20 that day and is $13 today I’m backing it each way at the value. Multinational and Searchin Rocks will be hard to hold out.

Belmont r7 Vane Tempest; In a purple patch of form and puts in every time. The 3kg claim and low draw should see her get every opportunity to chalk up another win.

Belmont r10 Sentimental Queen; Today might not be the day to race first up over 1400m without a trial but her win this distance first up last prep was breathtaking. Watch the market for a guide on stable confidence and go each way unless she blows out in betting then give it a miss.

Best Bet Belmont r10 Puli ; Loves leading and soft tracks so this race sets up perfectly . Should prove extremely difficult to run down if on pace is ok. By race 11 we should have an idea!

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Wise Cracker; Made up a lot of ground first up on soft over 1000m , indicating both the wet conditions and 1200m should suit. Has placed 5/6 and wont get a better opportunity to break it’s maiden.

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