Northam r1 Ciscojoe ; Hit the line hard into a close up 4th on debut . The Trifecta in that race all look capable of going through the grades. Extra 100m should suit.
Best Bet Northam r3 Dais ; Got out too late on debut and just missed. This looks no harder and should get every chance to go one better from the perfect draw.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r6 Three Eze ; If you ignore he’s run in town over a trip and 1 failure here , the surrounding runs are good enough to win here , especially the latest effort. Granted he has a terrible winning strike rate however so do most of the others. Confident he runs top 3 so suggest 40/60 % split of stake at current odds .
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Best Bet Belmont r4 Staralign ; Has been in sparkling form at Kalgoorlie under big weights. Again has weight , comes to town and stretches out to 1600m. Placings to horses such as Naughty by Nature and Billy Aint Silly over the mile suggest it shouldn’t be a issue. A replacement jockey for Harvey is yet to be named so may not even turn up .
Belmont r7 Stageman ; If your a thrill seeker then follow me in in backing this enigmatic sprinter who generally flops out of the barriers , finds all sorts of trouble and erupts late. 1000m at Ascot just adds to the task but if anyone can pull it off it’s Pike. Just missed this race last year and trial was sharp.
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Best Bet Northam r4 Belle’s Fantasy ; Ridden conservatively on debut from a tricky barrier and really attacked the line late into 2nd. The booking of apprentice Kristy Bennett from the good gate (3) suggest positive intent to be shown early and the extra 200m suitable.
Warnambool r5 In The Boat ; Was a big fan of this horse in WA. It’s form over here is better than what it meets here. Smith’s horses fly at his home track . Soft 7 , maybe worse by race time is the big query however can’t see any standout wet trackers in the field. Market usually tells the story with this stable , especially at home. Have your finger ready on the button!
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Best Value Ascot r5 Miss Marietta ; Looks ready to peak 3rd up from a spell at a more suitable distance. Is one of the few runners I looked at today with a good record at Ascot , most are bringing their strong Belmont form with a poor record here. Mr Delegator looks extremely hard to beat / run down. I am suggesting 25/75% each way at $11 / $3.30 . Wouldn’t talk you out of at least saving on $3.30 win Mr Delegator.
Best Bet Ascot r5 Kaptain Kaos ; Toss of the coin between the two favourites , Chris Parnham sticking with Kaptain has convinced me to go his way. Flying , rock hard fit vs a very talented mare in Kissonallfourcheecks who was very brave under 59kgs 1st up. Both most likely make their runs together from the back , seeing the mare live 1st up she just might need 1 more to top her off.
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Best Value Northam r8 Arnie’s Boy ; I put his race record of only 4 wins but a further 20 placings and $223k in stakes down to his racing pattern. He generally races best when doing nothing early then flooding home when the race is all over. He is extremely well weighted after the claim and at $14 / $3.60 I suggest a 25/75 % split of stake. Actually have Far Too Strong on top but can’t accept $3 win compared to the each way value. Track pattern will be vital to Arnie’s chances.
Best Bet Northam r9 Spritely Star ; Granted Buzzoom looks very hard to beat but 1400m is a big query for me where as it’s looks further the better for Spritely . Being first up , the market will tell the story for us but Peter’s Investments has taken a ridiculously strong team up and this could well cap off a big day . Hopefully we can jump on the #PIKEINTHELAST bandwagon.
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Kalgoorlie r3 Pretty Friar ; She is jumping up in class this time compared to most of the others who are dropping in grade. I just feel she is on an upward spiral where as the others may have already peaked. There is winning form out of both her last two starts here and she drops 3 kgs .
Kalgoorlie r5 Staralign ; This time I’m tipping one on class despite the big impost (60kgs) , banking on the man on his back (Pike) to help him carry it with an economical well timed run . Carried 59.5kgs when beating Hannans handicap winner Starthefriar (still can’t believe I’m typing that!) and 61kgs when running 2nd to him so is a proven weight carrier. Indigo Blue is the weight horse and hardest to beat.
Best Bet Kalgoorlie r8 Media Baron ; Was 1400 up to 2100m in the Boulder Cup when running 4th vs key rivals but only got out late and was swallowing them up. Only 2kgs off the minimum with Paul Harvey back in the saddle , he looks a fantastic bet.
Kalgoorlie r9 Devine Beast ; A city 2nd to the smart Come Magic looks the right form. Track record of 6 starts for 3 wins and 2 2nds , good barrier to get a soft run midfield and pounce late.
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Kalgoorlie r2 Here’s Dreaming ; 3yo filly who had one start in midweek 2yo company , running 3rd despite racing greenly. The unraced Rebelzone looks the obvious danger off her trials. Drawn alongside , Parnham vs Pike , race experience even if only 1 start counts for something , hopefully it gets us over the line.
Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 All in Red ; First up in the region flopped out the back and went to the line untested against the rail as our best value bet. Next up the senior rider went on and we stuck fat , making her our best bet each way. Up 400m in distance , she set a hot tempo from the breeze , hit the front turning for home and got run down by the swoopers in the last 50m to run 4th. Back to 1600m , Parnham on , surely a case of third time lucky.
Kalgoorlie r5 Regal City ; Sat 3 wide no cover in the All in Red race which was run at a brutal tempo and kept whacking away under the urgings of Pike to run a tough 2nd. This looks considerably easier and Pike sticks.
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Best Bet Northam r1 Just Jerry ; Going where angels fear to tread and tipping a special in a stayers maiden. Beat Bentley Beau when both were having first run at a trip. Yes it had a better run but it was a decent enough margin and drawn 1 today it will get every chance to run over the top again.
Northam r4 Real Danger ; Forgiving the failure in decent 2yo company on debut , it was on a heavy track. Won a trial in good time since and being a daughter of I am Invincible for Peter’s Investments suggests they are still eying of carnival races . Tough one price wise as they usually open way unders then the punters decide whats acceptable. $3.10 2nd favourite looks decent, use 365’s drift protector if you can.
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Belmont r4 Call Again ; In an even race , this 5yo gelding is in career best form and maps to get a perfect run somewhere near the pace if not leading. Have a theory that the favourite Giant Leap is not an apprentice horse so at $2.20 I prefer the $7 each way on Call Again.
Best Bet Belmont r5 Kissonallfourcheeks ; This classy mare was a brilliant winner first up no trial over 1200m at Ascot last prep. Can play a part in the Summer Carnival features and if she’s forward enough she will be mighty hard to hold out.
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Best Value Kalgoorlie r6 Starthefriar ; Career best win last start , first time in his career he has put a field away convincingly and was still running away from them past the line. Considering he wasn’t even wearing blinkers he is obviously feeling a million dollars. 50% strike rate at track including 2/2 at distance. Drawn widest is perfect , he’ll do his thing out wide and just keep coming. The catch is missing out on the $30 and then declaring $7 good value but it’s almost the same field and he again gets in with a featherweight which is when he produces his best. Has to be a massive top 3 chance and the odds allow each way.
Best Bet Kalgoorlie r8 All in Red ; Buried last on the fence last start and went to the line virtually untested behind stablemate Starthefriar. Senior rider going on looks a sign of intent and this is an easier race. Was hoping for double figures but at $7 each way it gets another chance to capture it’s brilliant form from last campaign.
* In my personal opinion the Belmont track is really struggling after a very wet winter. For the last month at least the rail has been white hot no matter where it’s positioned on the day. While we have found a couple of winners banking on this pattern , it’s very tough to bet confidently in this scenario. Only a couple of horses will get the necessary run and jockeys will be more and more desperate to find it. Until I see something different I will be playing very small stakes until we get back to Ascot.
Best Bet Ascot r4 War Gem ; Drawn 2 , I’m hoping it pops straight onto the stablemate and likely leaders back in Born to Talk (drawn 1) , peels off at top of straight or even better gets a rails run and goes bang. The favourite will need a recent track pattern reversal from out there.
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Best Bet Northam r4 I’m A Dreamer ; Banking on natural improvement seeing this 3yo fighting out the finish. Maps to get a perfect run tucked in behind them and the fact it ran 2nd as an early season 3yo over 1600m at just start two indicates he could improve considerably with each run. The Durrant / CJP combo are on fire , especially with lightly raced maidens. The favourite Gold Friars is going well enough but it’s ceiling is more exposed for an odds on pop . A repeat of last weeks run by Tibetan Black would go close here , her previous form was well below that effort.
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Belmont r2 Rulelee ; The winners in all 3 of her races are strong form references. I’m concerned with her racing pattern of getting back and hitting the line , Belmont has been very on pace lately. Small win bet .
Belmont r5 Pepper Assault ; 2/2 whereas the rest have had 20 plus starts for 2 or 3 wins. If she can handle the weight differential , she should remain undefeated.
Best Bet Belmont r8 Agent Kensington; Was super impressed with last win. In form runner up had pinched a break whereas AK was held up. When clear she pinned the ears back and charged through to score. Rocky Path is the value runner , needs a fair or swoopers track however.
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Best Bet York r3 Nutwood ; Caught wide throughout first up but didn’t shirk the task , running a brave 4th beaten 3 lengths behind Arcadia Grace. That filly could be a major player in the summer carnival . Blinkers on indicate a positive ride on pace which suits York.
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Come Magic ; At first glance, $2.40 for a four start maiden in a Saturday 1mw 60+ isn’t too attractive. Let me try and justify it. Went down fighting to Wilchino first up , that mare would be long odds on to win here. Drawn 2 with Pike on she lands in front and from there either controls it or takes a sit on Type Won. Goes extremely close in either situation.
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Best Value Northam r7 Oceanzara ; Only 1 win from 14 but 6 minors indicate a mare who always tries hard just lacks a killer punch. 4kg claim and does no work from barrier 1 to help run out the mile . No General Grant in this c1 and the each way price available is all honestly factoring in the inexperienced 4kg apprentice. The favourite ran 11th in the same General Grant race where Oceanzara finished 0.4 length 3rd and is $3 win . At that disparity we have to back the young fella in.
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Best Bet Belmont r2 Rain God ; Trial leading in really caught my eye. Weaved through from last under no pressure and let down nicely. Started at $1.60 on debut and justified it. At only other start finished 3rd in a small field behind the smart Panzdown then put away to mature. Drawn to get a great run tomorrow .
Belmont r5 Jarman ; Heavily supported first up and was good just beaten by the wide barrier. Next start drew wide again and jockey took her chances on the inside but the run never came. Middle draw this time and dry ground indicate he’s a solid each way chance.
Belmont r6 Agent Kensington ; I don’t have much between the 3 at the top of the weights and the market agrees. Barrier 1 was absolute gold on the weekend and on a good 4 I can’t see it being a disadvantage again. Box seats and fights out the finish.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r2 City Invasion ; In a modest maiden full of team Fernie runners it makes sense to side with the one Pike is on from the perfect stalking draw. American Grin will give him a decent head start and The Slug is well named , suited to the drop in grade but very one paced and likely to need further.
Best Value Kalgoorlie r6 All In Red ; Her wins last prep on dry tracks in Geraldton were dynamic. This time in she has struck very wet tracks and hasn’t gone a yard on them. At $16 I’m prepared to have an each way investment to see if she’s purely a dry tracker. No idea on reason for stable change . She is actually a half sister to Lucky Duck Prize Pursuit and joins ex Lucky Duck Startthefriar . Both get in very light after the use of the claims. The old boy loves Kalgoorlie but is not an easy horse to ride and jockey booked is very inexperienced.
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Belmont r3 Sassy Trader ; Providing the track dries out to a soft 5 or better he should lead , control it and defy running down.
Belmont r5 Campese ; Not suited by the inside draw last start , getting restricted room and running out of time. Out to 1400m and Chris Parnham jumps back on.
Best Bet Belmont r6 La Farola ; Very progressive 4yo mare who went enormous first up. Took a very talented horse to run her down . Take winner out and she bolts in , no horses of that caliber here . Hopefully a race to race double to Parnham on the Lane Train runners.
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