Oaks Day Oracle

Best Value Belmont r1 Chad’s Me Dad ; 1/2 sister to the champ Starthefriar who won a trial over a horse that won on Tuesday. Knowing the breeding, 1000m is going to be a touch short but she ran 3rd beaten a length on debut down the Pinjarra straight. Each way . Also keep an eye on any market support for Beauty in Me . Rarely do you get $10 on a Pike mount.

Best Bet Belmont r3 Pray Again ; Two main chances on paper so I have decided the better draw and bigger odds is the way to go. Market Stryke the obvious danger.

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Cup Day Collects

Best Bet Geraldton r5 Warm N Fuzzy ; Had to go to the Mid West on Melbourne Cup day to find a special but as long as it lobs who cares! 3 runs at the track for a first up win and two 2nds behind a metro raider in Savage One. From barrier 1 he leads or sits in the box seat and from there we should start to get that warm n fuzzy feeling halfway up the straight. Opened $2.50 (bet 365) , that’s spot on in my opinion.

Ascot r5 Go Forward ; Was solid at WA debut behind Triple Missile who would absolutely brain these. Hoping he steps better than that occasion so he can go forward and slot in within striking distance of Crypto Queen. She should lead this for a long way but banking on her getting a stitch late .

Ascot Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; field , 1 2 3 4 6 7 , 1 5 10 11 , 11 $192 for 100%

Ascot r6 Arcadia Grace ; When she flopped in 3yo stakes company last start as a Lucky Duck Best Bet I immediately noted 1 more chance with blinkers and up in distance. Well here she is but instead of the Listed Burgess Queen , she turns up in a c3 against the older horses.. Definitely D Day and at $1.65 she is not an attractive win bet. I would rather have the early quaddie above and hope for some value in the early legs.

Melbourne Cup :

Don’t like this years race as a betting proposition but it would be Un Australian of me to not have a go . Can’t see any of the locals beating the favourite so it’s up to the internationals .

Win ; (2) Incentivise $3 is getting to a backable price but in a field of 24 still a risk vs reward question.

Best Roughie (24) Sir Lucan ; Purely speculative as it’s an import unseen in Australia with 50kg in an edition where at least 1/2 the field look to be making up the numbers.

Box Trifecta 1 2 3 16 24 $60 for 100%

First 4 1st ; 1 2 3 2nd/3rd ; 1 2 3 16 24 ; 4th 1 2 3 6 12 13 16 19 21 23 $288 for 100%

If following these novelties please only bet what you can afford via flexi betting and understand that it’s a next to impossible race and unlikely to come in . If you do win big off them then you can thank me by buying a share in 1 of my 2yo’s !

Have A Great Cup Day Ducks wherever you may be.

Weekend Winners

Best Value ; Ascot r9 Miss Conteki ; Get back sprinter that can really explode late . Either peaked under 59.5kgs first up or lost concentration. Up to WFA, you wouldn’t expect her to get to the front too early this time . Elite St is a group 1 winner who was back to his brilliant best 1st up . Suited by the WFA conditions , it looks like the perfect race for him on the way to defending his Winterbottom crown. I’m more confident of Miss Conteki running top 3 then Elite St winning hence at the current odds of $7.50/$2.20 each way vs $2.30 the win , she looks the safer bet.

Best Bet Ascot r10 Kissonallforcheeks; Was a run short first up and still only went down by a nostril with 59kgs. Made amends 2nd up with an effortless victory from last in what looked like 2nd gear. Drops to the minimum for today’s group 3 and has beaten the favourite home before. I can’t help but think he’s price is heavily influenced by the owner/trainer/jockey combination. Very nice horse but first up from a narrow Derby win doesn’t scream short priced favourite to me.

Ascot r11 Son Of Bacchus; Has always shown above average ability and just maybe at 6 years of age the penny may have finally dropped. A first up 4th , running on hard behind the electric Graceful Girl followed up by running down a mare who was flying at the time over 1600m indicates he has come back really switched on.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Northam r2 Butterfly House ; While logic points to Famous Jurney who is dropping from consecutive 2nds in c5 company, Butterfly won her maiden 1/2 a second quicker same track and distance . Backing O’donnell to stalk the inexperienced apprentice and sprint over the top.

Northam r4 My Dilemma ; If the blinkers can improve her a length or two then she should go close in a pretty moderate maiden . Gets 3kg swing on Noble Scot but he gets Pike . Her only other starts were as a 2yo where she was too green to figure.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Pray Again ; Loomed to win first up but just couldn’t get past Belle’s Fantasy to the delight of those who followed our tip that day. That filly ran another promising race on Sunday , running 2nd in a c1. She has trialed well on wet ground and her debut 4th was on heavy in a very strong form race.

Best Value Ascot r5 Safety Fuse ; Beat the very talented Real Danger home in her maiden victory , sitting outside the leader and fighting her off over 1000m. Next start jumped to a hot c3 over 1100m and was only beaten 2.8 lengths by Treasured Star despite tramping wide throughout. That filly is favourite for all the 3yo features coming up in futures markets . The last 100m is the query , especially on wet ground which she is untried on however back to a c1 with 53kg on her back from a good draw , she should get her chance at $7 each way. Very wary of Sparkling Blue who won easily on debut in a weak maiden. Her recent trial was sharp and if she remains firm in the market I could have a saver on her too.

Weekend Winners

Ascot r2 Call Again ; Think the jockey change and back 100m in trip really suits the horse and I’m not the only one going by the early flucs. Has gone too hard in front last two . Pateman is a strong rider who excels on front runners.

Ascot r5 Sniparoochy ; Hoping she can jump cleanly and quickly as she needs to cross without doing too much , then she has the upside to be too quick for these. Good betfair in the run bet if she does. If she doesn’t she will be vulnerable late.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Arcadia Grace ; I have this horse as the next superstar to wear the cerise and white. 1000m was always going to be a risk last time . As it turns out probably only bad luck beat her as she was climbing all over them up the straight. While I expect her to be at her best at 1600m plus , I still believe she has the class to take this out on her way to the Guineas and Kingston Town where she is right up amongst the favourites in futures betting.

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Wednesday Winners

Northam r1 Ciscojoe ; Hit the line hard into a close up 4th on debut . The Trifecta in that race all look capable of going through the grades. Extra 100m should suit.

Best Bet Northam r3 Dais ; Got out too late on debut and just missed. This looks no harder and should get every chance to go one better from the perfect draw.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r6 Three Eze ; If you ignore he’s run in town over a trip and 1 failure here , the surrounding runs are good enough to win here , especially the latest effort. Granted he has a terrible winning strike rate however so do most of the others. Confident he runs top 3 so suggest 40/60 % split of stake at current odds .

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r4 Staralign ; Has been in sparkling form at Kalgoorlie under big weights. Again has weight , comes to town and stretches out to 1600m. Placings to horses such as Naughty by Nature and Billy Aint Silly over the mile suggest it shouldn’t be a issue. A replacement jockey for Harvey is yet to be named so may not even turn up .

Belmont r7 Stageman ; If your a thrill seeker then follow me in in backing this enigmatic sprinter who generally flops out of the barriers , finds all sorts of trouble and erupts late. 1000m at Ascot just adds to the task but if anyone can pull it off it’s Pike. Just missed this race last year and trial was sharp.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Northam r4 Belle’s Fantasy ; Ridden conservatively on debut from a tricky barrier and really attacked the line late into 2nd. The booking of apprentice Kristy Bennett from the good gate (3) suggest positive intent to be shown early and the extra 200m suitable.

Warnambool r5 In The Boat ; Was a big fan of this horse in WA. It’s form over here is better than what it meets here. Smith’s horses fly at his home track . Soft 7 , maybe worse by race time is the big query however can’t see any standout wet trackers in the field. Market usually tells the story with this stable , especially at home. Have your finger ready on the button!

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Ascot r5 Miss Marietta ; Looks ready to peak 3rd up from a spell at a more suitable distance. Is one of the few runners I looked at today with a good record at Ascot , most are bringing their strong Belmont form with a poor record here. Mr Delegator looks extremely hard to beat / run down. I am suggesting 25/75% each way at $11 / $3.30 . Wouldn’t talk you out of at least saving on $3.30 win Mr Delegator.

Best Bet Ascot r5 Kaptain Kaos ; Toss of the coin between the two favourites , Chris Parnham sticking with Kaptain has convinced me to go his way. Flying , rock hard fit vs a very talented mare in Kissonallfourcheecks who was very brave under 59kgs 1st up. Both most likely make their runs together from the back , seeing the mare live 1st up she just might need 1 more to top her off.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Value Northam r8 Arnie’s Boy ; I put his race record of only 4 wins but a further 20 placings and $223k in stakes down to his racing pattern. He generally races best when doing nothing early then flooding home when the race is all over. He is extremely well weighted after the claim and at $14 / $3.60 I suggest a 25/75 % split of stake. Actually have Far Too Strong on top but can’t accept $3 win compared to the each way value. Track pattern will be vital to Arnie’s chances.

Best Bet Northam r9 Spritely Star ; Granted Buzzoom looks very hard to beat but 1400m is a big query for me where as it’s looks further the better for Spritely . Being first up , the market will tell the story for us but Peter’s Investments has taken a ridiculously strong team up and this could well cap off a big day . Hopefully we can jump on the #PIKEINTHELAST bandwagon.

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Weekend Winners

Kalgoorlie r3 Pretty Friar ; She is jumping up in class this time compared to most of the others who are dropping in grade. I just feel she is on an upward spiral where as the others may have already peaked. There is winning form out of both her last two starts here and she drops 3 kgs .

Kalgoorlie r5 Staralign ; This time I’m tipping one on class despite the big impost (60kgs) , banking on the man on his back (Pike) to help him carry it with an economical well timed run . Carried 59.5kgs when beating Hannans handicap winner Starthefriar (still can’t believe I’m typing that!) and 61kgs when running 2nd to him so is a proven weight carrier. Indigo Blue is the weight horse and hardest to beat.

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r8 Media Baron ; Was 1400 up to 2100m in the Boulder Cup when running 4th vs key rivals but only got out late and was swallowing them up. Only 2kgs off the minimum with Paul Harvey back in the saddle , he looks a fantastic bet.

Kalgoorlie r9 Devine Beast ; A city 2nd to the smart Come Magic looks the right form. Track record of 6 starts for 3 wins and 2 2nds , good barrier to get a soft run midfield and pounce late.

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Thursday Tips

Kalgoorlie r2 Here’s Dreaming ; 3yo filly who had one start in midweek 2yo company , running 3rd despite racing greenly. The unraced Rebelzone looks the obvious danger off her trials. Drawn alongside , Parnham vs Pike , race experience even if only 1 start counts for something , hopefully it gets us over the line.

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 All in Red ; First up in the region flopped out the back and went to the line untested against the rail as our best value bet. Next up the senior rider went on and we stuck fat , making her our best bet each way. Up 400m in distance , she set a hot tempo from the breeze , hit the front turning for home and got run down by the swoopers in the last 50m to run 4th. Back to 1600m , Parnham on , surely a case of third time lucky.

Kalgoorlie r5 Regal City ; Sat 3 wide no cover in the All in Red race which was run at a brutal tempo and kept whacking away under the urgings of Pike to run a tough 2nd. This looks considerably easier and Pike sticks.

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Monday Money

Best Bet Northam r1 Just Jerry ; Going where angels fear to tread and tipping a special in a stayers maiden. Beat Bentley Beau when both were having first run at a trip. Yes it had a better run but it was a decent enough margin and drawn 1 today it will get every chance to run over the top again.

Northam r4 Real Danger ; Forgiving the failure in decent 2yo company on debut , it was on a heavy track. Won a trial in good time since and being a daughter of I am Invincible for Peter’s Investments suggests they are still eying of carnival races . Tough one price wise as they usually open way unders then the punters decide whats acceptable. $3.10 2nd favourite looks decent, use 365’s drift protector if you can.

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r4 Call Again ; In an even race , this 5yo gelding is in career best form and maps to get a perfect run somewhere near the pace if not leading. Have a theory that the favourite Giant Leap is not an apprentice horse so at $2.20 I prefer the $7 each way on Call Again.

Best Bet Belmont r5 Kissonallfourcheeks ; This classy mare was a brilliant winner first up no trial over 1200m at Ascot last prep. Can play a part in the Summer Carnival features and if she’s forward enough she will be mighty hard to hold out.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Value Kalgoorlie r6 Starthefriar ; Career best win last start , first time in his career he has put a field away convincingly and was still running away from them past the line. Considering he wasn’t even wearing blinkers he is obviously feeling a million dollars. 50% strike rate at track including 2/2 at distance. Drawn widest is perfect , he’ll do his thing out wide and just keep coming. The catch is missing out on the $30 and then declaring $7 good value but it’s almost the same field and he again gets in with a featherweight which is when he produces his best. Has to be a massive top 3 chance and the odds allow each way.

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r8 All in Red ; Buried last on the fence last start and went to the line virtually untested behind stablemate Starthefriar. Senior rider going on looks a sign of intent and this is an easier race. Was hoping for double figures but at $7 each way it gets another chance to capture it’s brilliant form from last campaign.

Weekend Winners

* In my personal opinion the Belmont track is really struggling after a very wet winter. For the last month at least the rail has been white hot no matter where it’s positioned on the day. While we have found a couple of winners banking on this pattern , it’s very tough to bet confidently in this scenario. Only a couple of horses will get the necessary run and jockeys will be more and more desperate to find it. Until I see something different I will be playing very small stakes until we get back to Ascot.

Best Bet Ascot r4 War Gem ; Drawn 2 , I’m hoping it pops straight onto the stablemate and likely leaders back in Born to Talk (drawn 1) , peels off at top of straight or even better gets a rails run and goes bang. The favourite will need a recent track pattern reversal from out there.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Northam r4 I’m A Dreamer ; Banking on natural improvement seeing this 3yo fighting out the finish. Maps to get a perfect run tucked in behind them and the fact it ran 2nd as an early season 3yo over 1600m at just start two indicates he could improve considerably with each run. The Durrant / CJP combo are on fire , especially with lightly raced maidens. The favourite Gold Friars is going well enough but it’s ceiling is more exposed for an odds on pop . A repeat of last weeks run by Tibetan Black would go close here , her previous form was well below that effort.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r2 Rulelee ; The winners in all 3 of her races are strong form references. I’m concerned with her racing pattern of getting back and hitting the line , Belmont has been very on pace lately. Small win bet .

Belmont r5 Pepper Assault ; 2/2 whereas the rest have had 20 plus starts for 2 or 3 wins. If she can handle the weight differential , she should remain undefeated.

Best Bet Belmont r8 Agent Kensington; Was super impressed with last win. In form runner up had pinched a break whereas AK was held up. When clear she pinned the ears back and charged through to score. Rocky Path is the value runner , needs a fair or swoopers track however.

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