Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r2 Market Stryke; Last start was up in distance and leading into a very strong headwind. Both starts prior it was run down by better horses than it meets here. Back to 1400m suits. I’ve been following Chad’s Me Dad closely purely because it is a half sister to Starthefriar. Shown glimpses at trials but so far yet to show much on race day. If she’s anything like her brother then 1400m and ridden with cover could help her improve at big odds.

Blackbooker Belmont r4 Bitofmerit ; Undefeated at trials and at only start when winning effortlessly against stakes performed horses In Buzoom and Champagne Dame. My concern is it’s almost 3 months between runs and resumes off no trial. Bookies aren’t risking him at $2.05 and I would have to see him in the mounting yard or at the very least see market support before taking those odds. On ability he would be $1.50 ish but Crypto Queen is very fast and Story Book gets the camp on both with Pike in the saddle so if he’s not fully wound up he could be vulnerable late. My suggestion ; watch the market and if he drifts slightly to around $2.50 then gets some late support yes , If he drifts past $3 then just put him in your blackbook and watch for the future.

Mad Roughy Belmont r8 Amber Mamba ; Has won 2 from 15 , 1 on debut and 1 2nd up last time in work , both at massive odds. The 2nd victory knocked off our very own Prize Pursuit (still bitter lol). All other runs have been hopeless so for whatever reason she can pull a fresh run out of the blue. Currently 50s you’d expect she jumps closer to 100’s and I’m talking $1 win $9 place just in case she bobs up.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r6 Warm N Fuzzy & Significant Hero ; Thinking this was the strongest of the heats . Warm N Fuzzy took hold of the apprentice, bolted out in front and was entitled to tire late . Senior jockey goes on and is the likely leader on a day where leading should be advantageous. Significant Hero gave up too big a headstart due to the breakneck tempo and rattled home into 2nd. So with our two bet strategy we have the most likely leader and the best credentialed swooper. Left out the winner of the heat in Delago De Hero as it got the perfect drop on the tearaway last time and draws wide this time.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Elite Street ; Undefeated this time in against the same horses and now meets them at level weights . Hopefully the expected hot rail conditions have evened out by race 8 which they often do . He can win from anywhere regardless as he did against the pattern last start and he looks the bet of the carnival to me.

First Four * Jackpot means it will pay all right even if Elite Street and Wilchino runs top 2. We missed the Railway by 3rd and 4th coming in wrong order so will have another go.

1st ; 2

2nd -4th 1 3 8 11 12 15 16 ($7 Exacta $42 trifecta $210 f4)

Quaddie (r6-9) : 8 10 , 4 (6) ; 2 , field . $24 for 100% ea combo . Skinny Version

Wide Version ; Field , 4 , 2 , Field. $180 for 100%

Threw Media Baron in as a mad roughy vs Midnight Blue to try and get some value in the skinny version. Could consider spending less on that combo.

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Friday Fill Up

Best Bet Albany r8 Mr Causeway ; Looks primarily a race in two between the two newcomers to the state who both won impressively here on opening day. Mr Causeway won a c2 1100m leading all the way whereas Blue Line won a 1000m maiden coming from the back. Those who follow my tips regularly know I’m against maiden winners next start 99% of the time hence I’m with the Favourite from barrier 1 to lead and win.

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 3 , 10 , 4 8 , 2 3 4 5 9 . $20 for 100%

Quaddie (r5-8) ; 2 3 , 5 6 , 1 2 3 5 7 , 2 . $20 for 100%

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Thursday Tips

Northam r2 Marinsky Ballet ; From a good family and gets Pike on debut in a small field where nothing stands out as above average. Has had 4 trials so fitness wont be an issue and the latest 2nd was in quick time for maiden class. Bred to get further than 1100 so perfect starting point.

Northam r3 Lady Toronado ; If Marinsky Ballet wins r2 then this will jump favourite. Won the trial mentioned above showing good speed throughout. Ignore the 10/10 in 400m trial when missing the kick and racing greenly. Primative did finish 10 lengths in front of it in that 400m trial before racing greenly herself on debut so can threaten with race experience. Hoping Dance Session has to do some work to get across as she’s very fast but hails a cab late.

Best Bet Northam r4 Acting God ; This one is lucky to not be in the sack file after not finding much last start despite being presented at the right time. Hopefully it was a case of the 2nd up blues and no disrespect to connections of the others but it’s a very thin maiden on paper. My massive concern is staying at 1300m , especially from the draw but if it can get a tow in on the corner it really should be running past these.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r4 Ghost Who Walks ; Predicting a speed war between two apprentice ridden leaders in Trevern and Shock Result. If he can stick to the rail somewhere close behind those two and get a gap on straightening then he has the ability to run them down. Trevern’s Mercanto form is very strong for this so if he can conserve some petrol he will go close. Market watch on anything first up for the Lane stable (Llessur) .

Best Bet Belmont r5 Safety Bay ; This time I’m hoping rather than expecting the apprentice can rate this inform mare outside another speedy mare in Spillinova rather than engaging in a speed war. Massive plunge pulled off on her last start and she was never going to lose after finding the front with ease. This is a considerably harder race but has a nice weight and back 100m suits.

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Sunday Prayers

Belmont r3 Awesome Chatter ; Good enough effort at only start as a 2yo to be competitive here. The trial win leading up to this first up run was soft , indicating he has come back even better.

Belmont r5 Market Stryke ; At both runs so far has made the winner earn their victory. Both winners have then won there next start in higher grade. Only has to run the 1650m to take this out.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Kasanori ; Bred to be real smart and both starts to date have been very good. Don’t generally like backing horses straight out of maiden grade but considering he was first up over 1300m without a trial last time there should be plenty of improvement to come.

Belmont Quaddie (r5-8) ; 2 , 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 10 11 , 5, 1 2 3 4 8 9 10 12 $72 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r1 Reliable Star ; Taking on a Pike odds on favourite in race 1 of the Perth Masters with great trepidation. Pure Devotion is the better stayer and Pike is obviously the better jockey however …. The favourite goes up 4kgs to a hefty 60kgs and our pick drops 1kg to 52.5kgs for a 3/4 length 2nd same track and distance last start. Yes it’s Pike vs an apprentice and you could argue that’s worth more than 4kgs but you only live once!

Ascot r3 Brave Angel ; This time I’m backing in the class of the race to carry the big weight of 59kgs. Is a listed stakes class winner at this track and distance back a long way in grade. Looks primed 3rd up from a spell .

Ascot r6 Hot Zed ; Has been trying his guts out with massive weights in fast run races . Now drops considerably in weight and drawn to get a softer run .

Best Bet Ascot r7 Treasured Star ; Banking on the addition of blinkers enabling Pike to settle her a touch closer than her usual racing pattern . If she gets clear galloping room from midfield and produces the turn of foot we have seen previously then it should be lights out for her opposition. To the naked eye it seemed Buzoom peaked on the run last week in the Champion fillies and is drawn to have to go right back again. That leaves the best credentialed male in It’sarayday as the one to run down. He is extremely talented but still quite raw. Likely gets the box seat so if it’s playing on pace like last week then his chances of holding her out increase significantly.

Ascot r8 ; Selections 12. Notorious One 16. Western Empire 6. Comfort Me 2. Massimo / 17 Media Baron if gets start.

Just feel Backing Notorious One each way is a better bet than Western Empire at ridiculous odds.

Novelties

1st ; 12 16

2nd ; 6 12 16

3rd ; 2 4 6 12 16 (17)

4th ; 2 4 6 8 10 11 12 16 (17)

Quaddie 1 (skinny) 2.​13/12.​16/6.​9.​11/1.​3.​8.​10.​11.​12.​13.​14.​15 $108 for 100% . Includes It’sarayday first leg and main chances last two legs.

Quaddie 2 (wide) 13 / 12 16 / field field . $390 for 100% standing out our best bet first leg then taking field last two legs.

For both quaddies you could take a smaller percentage with Notorious One compared to Western Empire as if it wins the quaddie will pay a substantially bigger dividend. This is how I will be playing.

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Wednesday Winners

Have ended up with 6/9 short priced favourites on top at Today’s Belmont card . Couldn’t separate them in terms of best bet / staking plan so I am having $5 on the 20 trebles combination. ($100) This means that 3 of the 6 have to win to get a return . Most bookies offer this product. A brief description of all 6 runners below .

Belmont r2 Wuhan Warrior ; Very fast horse who has drawn inside the equal favourite Rockin Rupert and after the claim carries 0.5 kg less. Rupert’s trials have been electric but to sit outside a speedster in Wuhan on debut and get over him will be a big effort.

Belmont r3 Acefire ; His form looks superior and Pike replaces an inexperienced 3kg claimer. Does have to handle the 6 day back up and you do have to take short odds to find out.

Belmont r4 Beauty In Me ; Was not in the picture on straightening on debut over 1000m before rattling home into 3rd. Hopefully the step to 1200m from a middle draw means she can settle a touch closer and Pike sticks. Cold Shizzle has been hammered into favouritism off the back of her strong 2yo form lines. 2yo form is never a given first run as a 3yo but the money is there to suggest she is working well.

Belmont r5 Astrape ; Another 3yo with strong 2yo form taking on the older horses who ran 2nd in a good 3yo race on resumption. Should get a great run just off the speed and hopefully with the help of the 3kg claim run down the likely leader Crypto Queen who has the strongest form of the older horses. The trainer’s whole team is firing on all cylinders.

Belmont r6 Go Forward ; Found this one on Cup day and boy wasn’t he impressive. Was over $4 last night and is now $3.20 and still attracting support . Most likely gets back again from the draw but if he can get any sort of tow in and shows the same turn of foot as last time he is better than them. Another tried horse going places for the Gangemi’s . War Warrior has ability and it’s D Day for Sniparoochy .

Belmont r9 Antique Jewel ; These moderate staying affairs are more about who’s Pike on than form and although this is a higher grade than last start’s easy kill it should get every possible from the draw and drops in weight. #PIKEINTHELAST

Early Quaddie (r2-5) 1 4 , 5 , 5 11 , 1 3 . $8 for 100%

Quaddie (r6-9) ; 2 , field , 1 2 4 5 6 7 9 , 7. $77 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

*Best Bet Ascot r1 Nowhiteflag; Has carried a fair bit of expectation on him as the brother of brilliant mare Fabergino but unlike his sibling , was a bit suspect at the end of his 1000m runs in his debut prep. Resumed off a blistering 930 trial at 1200m which was a question mark on breeding but he destroyed them with the ears pricked. This is considerably tougher but he has drawn inside the other speed horses and it’s going to take a sustained sprint to run him down if he reproduces 1st up effort. $20 Island Charm interests me as a small side bet in case they over do it up front.

*At the time of writing the price has firmed from $2.10 into $1.85 before my eyes. That’s a terrible price but I will leave the tip here in hope it gets back out to black figures.

Next Best Ascot r5 Kaptain Kaos ; Despite the 2.5kg weight swing in Kissonallfourcheeks favor for being beaten by her last time they clashed , I am banking on the race shape for him to turn the tables . This will very likely be a sit and sprint so he might have to get going early and sustain it but he has done that off slow tempo’s in the past. The small field aids his cause and I’d rather be in clear air than searching for a run. I have been against the fav when she won and with her when she hasn’t all prep so I’m fearing the worst.

Best Value Ascot r6 Media Baron ; Was pretty ordinary as favourite in the Kalgoorlie Cup but that was on soft and his record suggests he’s a dry tracker. Almost a month between runs , back to 1400m in the Asian Beau , it was held up for most of the straight. From barrier 10 he should get clear air this time and if they are making ground he can unleash a big last 200m on his day. Not the worst at $21/$5.

Geraldton r7 Warm N Fuzzy ; Has found his calling in Geraldton and was never going to lose on Melbourne Cup Day when carrying the Lucky Duck Best Bet and bank balance on his back. The draw and slightly stronger opposition make this race a little trickier however he showed he doesn’t have to lead when running into 2nd behind Savage One start prior. Not a moral this time but still very hard to beat.

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Thursday Tips

Belmont r3 Seeable / Frigid Quinella While I acknowledge why Frigid is favourite to turn the tables on Seeable tomorrow I don’t want to take odds on about it. If that’s the right form for this race ( I think it is ) , then the quinella looks the go as there shouldn’t be much between them again. (4/7)

Best Bet Belmont r5 Acting God ; Settled last and thundered home into 3rd first up over 1200m. I am a little concerned he may be looking for further than 1300m already but the barrier should ensure he settles closer and this looks a pretty thin race. Let’s Galahvant opened $10 and was worth a saver at that price but it has halved in price in a couple of hours. Another quinella horse maybe.

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Wednesday Winners Updated

• Have added 1 and slightly adjusted 1 due to the track going from a heavy 8 to a soft 5 this morning. With the late start and glorious weather I presume it will get very close to an upgrade into the good range.

Ascot r4 Safety Bay ; Saw the wet track combined with the step up to 1400m as enough negatives to saty away. Now back on close to dry I’m back on board , especially with the claim giving her a distinct advantage at the weights.

Ascot r5 On Red Alert ; Talented gelding that does a lot wrong in his races , hence only the 3 wins. At 7 years of age his manners are unlikely to get better however from barrier 1 and a cutaway in play he can hug the fence and prove hardest to beat. The drier track makes me more wary of Pat’s Got Sass. Should get a soft run and coming from strong 3yo stakes races.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Kentucky Blue ; Beaten a length this track and distance in a c3 last start. Drops to a c1 and only goes up 1kg. Each Way odds a very nice bonus .

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Wednesday Winners

• Suggest small stakes today on a wet track that hasn’t coped with wet conditions in the past.

Ascot r5 On Red Alert ; Talented gelding that does a lot wrong in his races , hence only the 3 wins. At 7 years of age his manners are unlikely to get better however he will handle the wet track and from barrier 1 and a cutaway in play he can hug the fence and prove hardest to beat.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Kentucky Blue ; Beaten a length this track and distance in a c3 last start. Drops to a c1 and only goes up 1kg. Untried on wet an obvious query but he is at each way odds.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet York r2 Noble Scot; Barrier 1 with an apprentice that can rate leaders is a good scenario at York. Last two efforts good enough to win this providing he handles the quirky track .

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Ascot r2 My Marlaina : Has had two starts in maiden company . She ran a fast finishing 2nd on debut despite racing greenly and the winner has measured up in a harder race since. Her manners improved with race experience and she got the job done impressively 2nd up. I don’t usually side with horses jumping from maiden grade to c1’s let alone Saturday grade however there are no stars in it , she’s drawn for a great run (2) and is $12 each way so worth a bet.

Best Bet Ascot r7 It’sarayday ; Punters have truck loaded into this horse every time he’s raced. He’s first defeat came from his first attempt at stakes level last time but it was a huge 2nd , sitting 3 deep without cover and fighting on for 2nd behind a smart filly who has run 2nd at this level again since. This field lacks depth and the class horse is horribly out of form. With 54kgs it looks a case of running out the 1400m to me and I can’t see why he wouldn’t. At $2.10 he’s not hard to find yourself but I’m thinking he jumps odds on .

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Oaks Day Oracle

Best Value Belmont r1 Chad’s Me Dad ; 1/2 sister to the champ Starthefriar who won a trial over a horse that won on Tuesday. Knowing the breeding, 1000m is going to be a touch short but she ran 3rd beaten a length on debut down the Pinjarra straight. Each way . Also keep an eye on any market support for Beauty in Me . Rarely do you get $10 on a Pike mount.

Best Bet Belmont r3 Pray Again ; Two main chances on paper so I have decided the better draw and bigger odds is the way to go. Market Stryke the obvious danger.

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Cup Day Collects

Best Bet Geraldton r5 Warm N Fuzzy ; Had to go to the Mid West on Melbourne Cup day to find a special but as long as it lobs who cares! 3 runs at the track for a first up win and two 2nds behind a metro raider in Savage One. From barrier 1 he leads or sits in the box seat and from there we should start to get that warm n fuzzy feeling halfway up the straight. Opened $2.50 (bet 365) , that’s spot on in my opinion.

Ascot r5 Go Forward ; Was solid at WA debut behind Triple Missile who would absolutely brain these. Hoping he steps better than that occasion so he can go forward and slot in within striking distance of Crypto Queen. She should lead this for a long way but banking on her getting a stitch late .

Ascot Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; field , 1 2 3 4 6 7 , 1 5 10 11 , 11 $192 for 100%

Ascot r6 Arcadia Grace ; When she flopped in 3yo stakes company last start as a Lucky Duck Best Bet I immediately noted 1 more chance with blinkers and up in distance. Well here she is but instead of the Listed Burgess Queen , she turns up in a c3 against the older horses.. Definitely D Day and at $1.65 she is not an attractive win bet. I would rather have the early quaddie above and hope for some value in the early legs.

Melbourne Cup :

Don’t like this years race as a betting proposition but it would be Un Australian of me to not have a go . Can’t see any of the locals beating the favourite so it’s up to the internationals .

Win ; (2) Incentivise $3 is getting to a backable price but in a field of 24 still a risk vs reward question.

Best Roughie (24) Sir Lucan ; Purely speculative as it’s an import unseen in Australia with 50kg in an edition where at least 1/2 the field look to be making up the numbers.

Box Trifecta 1 2 3 16 24 $60 for 100%

First 4 1st ; 1 2 3 2nd/3rd ; 1 2 3 16 24 ; 4th 1 2 3 6 12 13 16 19 21 23 $288 for 100%

If following these novelties please only bet what you can afford via flexi betting and understand that it’s a next to impossible race and unlikely to come in . If you do win big off them then you can thank me by buying a share in 1 of my 2yo’s !

Have A Great Cup Day Ducks wherever you may be.

Weekend Winners

Best Value ; Ascot r9 Miss Conteki ; Get back sprinter that can really explode late . Either peaked under 59.5kgs first up or lost concentration. Up to WFA, you wouldn’t expect her to get to the front too early this time . Elite St is a group 1 winner who was back to his brilliant best 1st up . Suited by the WFA conditions , it looks like the perfect race for him on the way to defending his Winterbottom crown. I’m more confident of Miss Conteki running top 3 then Elite St winning hence at the current odds of $7.50/$2.20 each way vs $2.30 the win , she looks the safer bet.

Best Bet Ascot r10 Kissonallforcheeks; Was a run short first up and still only went down by a nostril with 59kgs. Made amends 2nd up with an effortless victory from last in what looked like 2nd gear. Drops to the minimum for today’s group 3 and has beaten the favourite home before. I can’t help but think he’s price is heavily influenced by the owner/trainer/jockey combination. Very nice horse but first up from a narrow Derby win doesn’t scream short priced favourite to me.

Ascot r11 Son Of Bacchus; Has always shown above average ability and just maybe at 6 years of age the penny may have finally dropped. A first up 4th , running on hard behind the electric Graceful Girl followed up by running down a mare who was flying at the time over 1600m indicates he has come back really switched on.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Northam r2 Butterfly House ; While logic points to Famous Jurney who is dropping from consecutive 2nds in c5 company, Butterfly won her maiden 1/2 a second quicker same track and distance . Backing O’donnell to stalk the inexperienced apprentice and sprint over the top.

Northam r4 My Dilemma ; If the blinkers can improve her a length or two then she should go close in a pretty moderate maiden . Gets 3kg swing on Noble Scot but he gets Pike . Her only other starts were as a 2yo where she was too green to figure.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r2 Pray Again ; Loomed to win first up but just couldn’t get past Belle’s Fantasy to the delight of those who followed our tip that day. That filly ran another promising race on Sunday , running 2nd in a c1. She has trialed well on wet ground and her debut 4th was on heavy in a very strong form race.

Best Value Ascot r5 Safety Fuse ; Beat the very talented Real Danger home in her maiden victory , sitting outside the leader and fighting her off over 1000m. Next start jumped to a hot c3 over 1100m and was only beaten 2.8 lengths by Treasured Star despite tramping wide throughout. That filly is favourite for all the 3yo features coming up in futures markets . The last 100m is the query , especially on wet ground which she is untried on however back to a c1 with 53kg on her back from a good draw , she should get her chance at $7 each way. Very wary of Sparkling Blue who won easily on debut in a weak maiden. Her recent trial was sharp and if she remains firm in the market I could have a saver on her too.

Weekend Winners

Ascot r2 Call Again ; Think the jockey change and back 100m in trip really suits the horse and I’m not the only one going by the early flucs. Has gone too hard in front last two . Pateman is a strong rider who excels on front runners.

Ascot r5 Sniparoochy ; Hoping she can jump cleanly and quickly as she needs to cross without doing too much , then she has the upside to be too quick for these. Good betfair in the run bet if she does. If she doesn’t she will be vulnerable late.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Arcadia Grace ; I have this horse as the next superstar to wear the cerise and white. 1000m was always going to be a risk last time . As it turns out probably only bad luck beat her as she was climbing all over them up the straight. While I expect her to be at her best at 1600m plus , I still believe she has the class to take this out on her way to the Guineas and Kingston Town where she is right up amongst the favourites in futures betting.

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