Belmont r6 Kasonori ; Won it’s maiden well as a odds on favourite then things haven’t worked out next two. Raced outside the leader into gale force winds where leading was a no go zone then was caught wide in a c3. Drops back to a c1 and were getting $7.50/$2.40 each way .
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Ascot r1 Safety Bay : Should find the front with 54kgs on her back and from there be hard to catch. The drop back to 1200m really helps. There will be a wall chasing late but think we can cling on . Providing there is 8 runners I’m going 40/60% to cover bet.
Ascot r5 Proconsent ; Put the writing on the wall with a fast finishing 2nd behind Comfort Me who then ran 2nd in a Railway . Then looked in trouble before exploding with 60kgs on his back and winning eased down. Same weight , track and distance, he’s my “Best Winning Chance “of the day but at odds on I can’t label it as my best bet. $2 even with a boost and I suggest having a crack.
Best Bet Ascot r8 Marocchino ; Has won 3/4 this distance including 2/2 at Ascot. Last start chased a leader who was going breakneck speed and then was left a sitting duck down the straight but held them reasonably comfortably on the line. Should get an easier run on speed this time and last preparation he put 5 wins in a row together so he should be in this for a very long way. $7.50 each way looks outstanding value.
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Best Bet Geraldton r5 Billy Jack ; Has strung two wins together , appreciating the step up in distance each time. This is a step up in class but drops considerably in weight.
Geraldton Quaddie (r5-8) ; 4 , 1 , field , field . $132 for 100%
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Ascot r2 The Velvet Queen ; Came from last at a very short quote first up and had to really dig deep to catch a horse that has won easily herself at it’s next start ,thrashing the rest. Again the “pro’” are looking for leaders with the rail out 11 into fresh easterlies but we are yet to see anything but a fair track at Ascot. I’m backing her class in a small field to run them down. This is a very good field for a midweek but can’t get Marinsky Ballet that long in the market ($26). Spewing it’s pay 1 & 2 only so will have novelties instead.
First 4 ; 1st 9 , 2nd - 4th 1 2 7 8 ($24 for 100%).
Best Bet Ascot r3 Trevern ; Tipping him to jump and run and from there he looks very hard to catch. No spoils at $1.80 ( in from $2.15) , thinking we will get $2 +if we’re patient unless leaders are dominating.
Ascot r5 Westriver Miracle ; Usually against last start maiden winners but all the main chances in this are in the same boat or maidens . Won too easy last start and this is not much harder.
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Ascot r3 Written Matter ; Solid first up win in an easier race to make it 3/4 . The pace will be hectic anytime Ziebell is engaged , add Kenyluck with an apprentice booked and Starfield Impact and the sparks should be flying off the firm deck. Watching the replays of his first two starts , his 2nd win was visually more impressive so hoping he shows the same improvement this time in as he will need to in this line up.
Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1.4.6.11/4/2.3.4.5.7.10.13.14.15/6 $36 for 100% *both standouts are very risky but I prefer to go for it rather than going wide and relying on a big dividend , especially with early quaddies where the pool is generally smaller.
Best Bet Ascot r7 Sheza Chalmer ; Is a horse that can find trouble in her races , no more evident than last start in the 1200m leg of this mares series , but when things fall into place she is dynamic. Angelic Miss beat her home last start but has to sustain her big sprint from near last an extra 200m . The favourite Bright Diamond was also desperately unlucky and has only missed a place once in 10 starts . Swap the silks and jockeys and Sheza Chalmer starts favourite over 1400m in my opinion but very wary. La Farola comes from a different race . She always flies first up but to win like she did with 58kgs she has to be respected , barrier 1 a tricky draw for her , will need luck getting a run. Plenty of knockout chances aswell in a great race.
Ascot r8 Western Empire / Regal Power ; With Western Empire strangling the market and for good reason we will have the quinella with the only possible danger in Regal Power. .WFA conditions , wide draw and my record of getting “morals” beat in multi’s means I’m staying well clear of the $1.40. (Punters who are on breathe a huge sigh of relief!). Many will include the filly Searchin Rocks due to the weight advantage but I’m not convinced this years 3yo form is strong enough to compete with two absolute a graders. The rest are going to battle to turn their Railway Stakes spanking around. It’s another jackpot first 4 so we will try and jag it for minimum spend.
In Order
7/1/4.6.8.9.10/3.4.6.8.9.10 $25 for 100%
Quaddie (r6-9) FD/5/1/2.3.4.8.9.10.11.12.13 $81 for 100% * again standing out Sheza Chalmer is a huge risk but if Western Empire wins as expected then the dividend wont be massive.
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Multi “Good Thing”Northam r2 Heavenly Waters ; Very speedy 1000m specialist who should find the rail first and prove too quick. She’s still pretty green , has an apprentice on and is $1.70 . What could possibly go wrong!
Best Bet Northam r4 Sweet Admiration ; Latest trial really caught the eye , flashing home from last in quick time into a close up 3rd. The winner of that trial Lady Toronado missed the start on debut and made up many lengths . The runner up Marinsky Ballet won on the same day. Both were heavily supported and both raced on pace in the trial which gave the trial effort even more merit. At $4.20 / $1.75 40/60 % split of stake each way is the safest option, alternatively use the place as a multi leg with Heavenly Waters win. Civvy Street finds a dry track first time and is also off a nice trial. If we can get the favourite beat it could be a nice novelties race around these two.
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Best Bet Belmont r2 Market Stryke; Last start was up in distance and leading into a very strong headwind. Both starts prior it was run down by better horses than it meets here. Back to 1400m suits. I’ve been following Chad’s Me Dad closely purely because it is a half sister to Starthefriar. Shown glimpses at trials but so far yet to show much on race day. If she’s anything like her brother then 1400m and ridden with cover could help her improve at big odds.
Blackbooker Belmont r4 Bitofmerit ; Undefeated at trials and at only start when winning effortlessly against stakes performed horses In Buzoom and Champagne Dame. My concern is it’s almost 3 months between runs and resumes off no trial. Bookies aren’t risking him at $2.05 and I would have to see him in the mounting yard or at the very least see market support before taking those odds. On ability he would be $1.50 ish but Crypto Queen is very fast and Story Book gets the camp on both with Pike in the saddle so if he’s not fully wound up he could be vulnerable late. My suggestion ; watch the market and if he drifts slightly to around $2.50 then gets some late support yes , If he drifts past $3 then just put him in your blackbook and watch for the future.
Mad Roughy Belmont r8 Amber Mamba ; Has won 2 from 15 , 1 on debut and 1 2nd up last time in work , both at massive odds. The 2nd victory knocked off our very own Prize Pursuit (still bitter lol). All other runs have been hopeless so for whatever reason she can pull a fresh run out of the blue. Currently 50s you’d expect she jumps closer to 100’s and I’m talking $1 win $9 place just in case she bobs up.
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Ascot r6 Warm N Fuzzy & Significant Hero ; Thinking this was the strongest of the heats . Warm N Fuzzy took hold of the apprentice, bolted out in front and was entitled to tire late . Senior jockey goes on and is the likely leader on a day where leading should be advantageous. Significant Hero gave up too big a headstart due to the breakneck tempo and rattled home into 2nd. So with our two bet strategy we have the most likely leader and the best credentialed swooper. Left out the winner of the heat in Delago De Hero as it got the perfect drop on the tearaway last time and draws wide this time.
Best Bet Ascot r8 Elite Street ; Undefeated this time in against the same horses and now meets them at level weights . Hopefully the expected hot rail conditions have evened out by race 8 which they often do . He can win from anywhere regardless as he did against the pattern last start and he looks the bet of the carnival to me.
First Four * Jackpot means it will pay all right even if Elite Street and Wilchino runs top 2. We missed the Railway by 3rd and 4th coming in wrong order so will have another go.
1st ; 2
2nd -4th 1 3 8 11 12 15 16 ($7 Exacta $42 trifecta $210 f4)
Quaddie (r6-9) : 8 10 , 4 (6) ; 2 , field . $24 for 100% ea combo . Skinny Version
Wide Version ; Field , 4 , 2 , Field. $180 for 100%
Threw Media Baron in as a mad roughy vs Midnight Blue to try and get some value in the skinny version. Could consider spending less on that combo.
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Best Bet Albany r8 Mr Causeway ; Looks primarily a race in two between the two newcomers to the state who both won impressively here on opening day. Mr Causeway won a c2 1100m leading all the way whereas Blue Line won a 1000m maiden coming from the back. Those who follow my tips regularly know I’m against maiden winners next start 99% of the time hence I’m with the Favourite from barrier 1 to lead and win.
Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 3 , 10 , 4 8 , 2 3 4 5 9 . $20 for 100%
Quaddie (r5-8) ; 2 3 , 5 6 , 1 2 3 5 7 , 2 . $20 for 100%
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Northam r2 Marinsky Ballet ; From a good family and gets Pike on debut in a small field where nothing stands out as above average. Has had 4 trials so fitness wont be an issue and the latest 2nd was in quick time for maiden class. Bred to get further than 1100 so perfect starting point.
Northam r3 Lady Toronado ; If Marinsky Ballet wins r2 then this will jump favourite. Won the trial mentioned above showing good speed throughout. Ignore the 10/10 in 400m trial when missing the kick and racing greenly. Primative did finish 10 lengths in front of it in that 400m trial before racing greenly herself on debut so can threaten with race experience. Hoping Dance Session has to do some work to get across as she’s very fast but hails a cab late.
Best Bet Northam r4 Acting God ; This one is lucky to not be in the sack file after not finding much last start despite being presented at the right time. Hopefully it was a case of the 2nd up blues and no disrespect to connections of the others but it’s a very thin maiden on paper. My massive concern is staying at 1300m , especially from the draw but if it can get a tow in on the corner it really should be running past these.
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Belmont r4 Ghost Who Walks ; Predicting a speed war between two apprentice ridden leaders in Trevern and Shock Result. If he can stick to the rail somewhere close behind those two and get a gap on straightening then he has the ability to run them down. Trevern’s Mercanto form is very strong for this so if he can conserve some petrol he will go close. Market watch on anything first up for the Lane stable (Llessur) .
Best Bet Belmont r5 Safety Bay ; This time I’m hoping rather than expecting the apprentice can rate this inform mare outside another speedy mare in Spillinova rather than engaging in a speed war. Massive plunge pulled off on her last start and she was never going to lose after finding the front with ease. This is a considerably harder race but has a nice weight and back 100m suits.
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Belmont r3 Awesome Chatter ; Good enough effort at only start as a 2yo to be competitive here. The trial win leading up to this first up run was soft , indicating he has come back even better.
Belmont r5 Market Stryke ; At both runs so far has made the winner earn their victory. Both winners have then won there next start in higher grade. Only has to run the 1650m to take this out.
Best Bet Belmont r7 Kasanori ; Bred to be real smart and both starts to date have been very good. Don’t generally like backing horses straight out of maiden grade but considering he was first up over 1300m without a trial last time there should be plenty of improvement to come.
Belmont Quaddie (r5-8) ; 2 , 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 10 11 , 5, 1 2 3 4 8 9 10 12 $72 for 100%
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Ascot r1 Reliable Star ; Taking on a Pike odds on favourite in race 1 of the Perth Masters with great trepidation. Pure Devotion is the better stayer and Pike is obviously the better jockey however …. The favourite goes up 4kgs to a hefty 60kgs and our pick drops 1kg to 52.5kgs for a 3/4 length 2nd same track and distance last start. Yes it’s Pike vs an apprentice and you could argue that’s worth more than 4kgs but you only live once!
Ascot r3 Brave Angel ; This time I’m backing in the class of the race to carry the big weight of 59kgs. Is a listed stakes class winner at this track and distance back a long way in grade. Looks primed 3rd up from a spell .
Ascot r6 Hot Zed ; Has been trying his guts out with massive weights in fast run races . Now drops considerably in weight and drawn to get a softer run .
Best Bet Ascot r7 Treasured Star ; Banking on the addition of blinkers enabling Pike to settle her a touch closer than her usual racing pattern . If she gets clear galloping room from midfield and produces the turn of foot we have seen previously then it should be lights out for her opposition. To the naked eye it seemed Buzoom peaked on the run last week in the Champion fillies and is drawn to have to go right back again. That leaves the best credentialed male in It’sarayday as the one to run down. He is extremely talented but still quite raw. Likely gets the box seat so if it’s playing on pace like last week then his chances of holding her out increase significantly.
Ascot r8 ; Selections 12. Notorious One 16. Western Empire 6. Comfort Me 2. Massimo / 17 Media Baron if gets start.
Just feel Backing Notorious One each way is a better bet than Western Empire at ridiculous odds.
Novelties
1st ; 12 16
2nd ; 6 12 16
3rd ; 2 4 6 12 16 (17)
4th ; 2 4 6 8 10 11 12 16 (17)
Quaddie 1 (skinny) 2.13/12.16/6.9.11/1.3.8.10.11.12.13.14.15 $108 for 100% . Includes It’sarayday first leg and main chances last two legs.
Quaddie 2 (wide) 13 / 12 16 / field field . $390 for 100% standing out our best bet first leg then taking field last two legs.
For both quaddies you could take a smaller percentage with Notorious One compared to Western Empire as if it wins the quaddie will pay a substantially bigger dividend. This is how I will be playing.
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Have ended up with 6/9 short priced favourites on top at Today’s Belmont card . Couldn’t separate them in terms of best bet / staking plan so I am having $5 on the 20 trebles combination. ($100) This means that 3 of the 6 have to win to get a return . Most bookies offer this product. A brief description of all 6 runners below .
Belmont r2 Wuhan Warrior ; Very fast horse who has drawn inside the equal favourite Rockin Rupert and after the claim carries 0.5 kg less. Rupert’s trials have been electric but to sit outside a speedster in Wuhan on debut and get over him will be a big effort.
Belmont r3 Acefire ; His form looks superior and Pike replaces an inexperienced 3kg claimer. Does have to handle the 6 day back up and you do have to take short odds to find out.
Belmont r4 Beauty In Me ; Was not in the picture on straightening on debut over 1000m before rattling home into 3rd. Hopefully the step to 1200m from a middle draw means she can settle a touch closer and Pike sticks. Cold Shizzle has been hammered into favouritism off the back of her strong 2yo form lines. 2yo form is never a given first run as a 3yo but the money is there to suggest she is working well.
Belmont r5 Astrape ; Another 3yo with strong 2yo form taking on the older horses who ran 2nd in a good 3yo race on resumption. Should get a great run just off the speed and hopefully with the help of the 3kg claim run down the likely leader Crypto Queen who has the strongest form of the older horses. The trainer’s whole team is firing on all cylinders.
Belmont r6 Go Forward ; Found this one on Cup day and boy wasn’t he impressive. Was over $4 last night and is now $3.20 and still attracting support . Most likely gets back again from the draw but if he can get any sort of tow in and shows the same turn of foot as last time he is better than them. Another tried horse going places for the Gangemi’s . War Warrior has ability and it’s D Day for Sniparoochy .
Belmont r9 Antique Jewel ; These moderate staying affairs are more about who’s Pike on than form and although this is a higher grade than last start’s easy kill it should get every possible from the draw and drops in weight. #PIKEINTHELAST
Early Quaddie (r2-5) 1 4 , 5 , 5 11 , 1 3 . $8 for 100%
Quaddie (r6-9) ; 2 , field , 1 2 4 5 6 7 9 , 7. $77 for 100%
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*Best Bet Ascot r1 Nowhiteflag; Has carried a fair bit of expectation on him as the brother of brilliant mare Fabergino but unlike his sibling , was a bit suspect at the end of his 1000m runs in his debut prep. Resumed off a blistering 930 trial at 1200m which was a question mark on breeding but he destroyed them with the ears pricked. This is considerably tougher but he has drawn inside the other speed horses and it’s going to take a sustained sprint to run him down if he reproduces 1st up effort. $20 Island Charm interests me as a small side bet in case they over do it up front.
*At the time of writing the price has firmed from $2.10 into $1.85 before my eyes. That’s a terrible price but I will leave the tip here in hope it gets back out to black figures.
Next Best Ascot r5 Kaptain Kaos ; Despite the 2.5kg weight swing in Kissonallfourcheeks favor for being beaten by her last time they clashed , I am banking on the race shape for him to turn the tables . This will very likely be a sit and sprint so he might have to get going early and sustain it but he has done that off slow tempo’s in the past. The small field aids his cause and I’d rather be in clear air than searching for a run. I have been against the fav when she won and with her when she hasn’t all prep so I’m fearing the worst.
Best Value Ascot r6 Media Baron ; Was pretty ordinary as favourite in the Kalgoorlie Cup but that was on soft and his record suggests he’s a dry tracker. Almost a month between runs , back to 1400m in the Asian Beau , it was held up for most of the straight. From barrier 10 he should get clear air this time and if they are making ground he can unleash a big last 200m on his day. Not the worst at $21/$5.
Geraldton r7 Warm N Fuzzy ; Has found his calling in Geraldton and was never going to lose on Melbourne Cup Day when carrying the Lucky Duck Best Bet and bank balance on his back. The draw and slightly stronger opposition make this race a little trickier however he showed he doesn’t have to lead when running into 2nd behind Savage One start prior. Not a moral this time but still very hard to beat.
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Belmont r3 Seeable / Frigid Quinella While I acknowledge why Frigid is favourite to turn the tables on Seeable tomorrow I don’t want to take odds on about it. If that’s the right form for this race ( I think it is ) , then the quinella looks the go as there shouldn’t be much between them again. (4/7)
Best Bet Belmont r5 Acting God ; Settled last and thundered home into 3rd first up over 1200m. I am a little concerned he may be looking for further than 1300m already but the barrier should ensure he settles closer and this looks a pretty thin race. Let’s Galahvant opened $10 and was worth a saver at that price but it has halved in price in a couple of hours. Another quinella horse maybe.
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Have added 1 and slightly adjusted 1 due to the track going from a heavy 8 to a soft 5 this morning. With the late start and glorious weather I presume it will get very close to an upgrade into the good range.
Ascot r4 Safety Bay ; Saw the wet track combined with the step up to 1400m as enough negatives to saty away. Now back on close to dry I’m back on board , especially with the claim giving her a distinct advantage at the weights.
Ascot r5 On Red Alert ; Talented gelding that does a lot wrong in his races , hence only the 3 wins. At 7 years of age his manners are unlikely to get better however from barrier 1 and a cutaway in play he can hug the fence and prove hardest to beat. The drier track makes me more wary of Pat’s Got Sass. Should get a soft run and coming from strong 3yo stakes races.
Best Bet Ascot r8 Kentucky Blue ; Beaten a length this track and distance in a c3 last start. Drops to a c1 and only goes up 1kg. Each Way odds a very nice bonus .
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Suggest small stakes today on a wet track that hasn’t coped with wet conditions in the past.
Ascot r5 On Red Alert ; Talented gelding that does a lot wrong in his races , hence only the 3 wins. At 7 years of age his manners are unlikely to get better however he will handle the wet track and from barrier 1 and a cutaway in play he can hug the fence and prove hardest to beat.
Best Bet Ascot r8 Kentucky Blue ; Beaten a length this track and distance in a c3 last start. Drops to a c1 and only goes up 1kg. Untried on wet an obvious query but he is at each way odds.
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Best Bet York r2 Noble Scot; Barrier 1 with an apprentice that can rate leaders is a good scenario at York. Last two efforts good enough to win this providing he handles the quirky track .
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Best Value Ascot r2 My Marlaina : Has had two starts in maiden company . She ran a fast finishing 2nd on debut despite racing greenly and the winner has measured up in a harder race since. Her manners improved with race experience and she got the job done impressively 2nd up. I don’t usually side with horses jumping from maiden grade to c1’s let alone Saturday grade however there are no stars in it , she’s drawn for a great run (2) and is $12 each way so worth a bet.
Best Bet Ascot r7 It’sarayday ; Punters have truck loaded into this horse every time he’s raced. He’s first defeat came from his first attempt at stakes level last time but it was a huge 2nd , sitting 3 deep without cover and fighting on for 2nd behind a smart filly who has run 2nd at this level again since. This field lacks depth and the class horse is horribly out of form. With 54kgs it looks a case of running out the 1400m to me and I can’t see why he wouldn’t. At $2.10 he’s not hard to find yourself but I’m thinking he jumps odds on .
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