Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r2 Valency; She is not the first and won’t be the last inexperienced horse that fails to make up quick ground , ducking back to the inside as happened last start. If given a clearer path she can beat these out to 1400m.

Belmont r7 Oceanzara ; Went into the blackbook early in the campaign with the notes wait for senior rider. Senior rider went on but she went to stakes level racing . She ran out of her skin considering the class and returns to her level but with the 4kg apprentice back on. While she is pitchforked in with 53.5kgs she is the type of horse that everything has to go right in the run hence the strike rate of 2/19. With a senior on I would be having a good bet , with the kid on I will tame it right down , especially at the skinny odds of $2.70. At least he has ridden her on multiple occasions including a win and I wish the young lad all the best.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r1 Frantic War : Not an actual tip but If you want to have something on for moral support I suggest 20/80 % win / place at current odds of $5.50 / $1.95 (Tabtouch). Wouldn’t be going too hard with the limited form to work with. Have a little nibble and help cheer the black silks with the gold duck home!

Best Bet Ascot r2 Blazing Away ; Chased a horse who over raced and went way too hard last start so did a great job to hold onto 2nd. The winner of that race ran 2nd in a similar race last Saturday. Controls the tempo from the breeze and looks hard to run down.

Ascot r8 The Spruiker ; Is just a winner who knows how to put his head out and find the line first , having done it 8/14 times already in his career. Think this horse can win at a higher level in WA at least . Scared stiff of Pro Consent , his 1400m record is not as good as The Spruiker but dropping down to 54.5kgs will assist his booming finish no doubt.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r2 Border Force ; A close 2nd in 3yo restricted grade on debut followed by a maiden win indicate he has his fair share of ability. Forever Dreaming is priced on strong trial and 2yo form. Luckless on resumption , I still prefer the security of recent winning form.

Best Bet Belmont r4 Soviet Spy ; Odds on in a weak stayers event makes me extremely nervous however this horse looks like an out and out stayer who finally showed something when stepped up sharply in trip last start. Brother to group 1 winner Come Play With Me , Pike and Durrant in a midweek stayers race , should be winning.

Belmont r6 Danni Bella ; Was very keen to take the favourite on at even money and found this mare who ran 1.7 lengths 3rd behind Mercanto 1st up . Has won 3/4 at the distance and should get the right run on speed.

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Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Valency ; Was well supported in 3yo OMWLY grade on debut but blew the start before running on well late over 1000m. A better jump , 1200m and maiden grade should see her run a big race.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r4 Acromantula ; Although like most 1000m races this has a tonne of speed in it , still can’t see anything holding Acromantula out . First up ran like last weeks pay out in front and was nabbed on the line by the smart The Front Bar , spacing the rest. The favourite Go Forward is coming from a much weaker race and either gets trapped wide or settles back.

That’s All I got today , wide open raffles including the cup which s one of the weakest editions in ages .

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Belmont Bangers

Best Bet Belmont r6 Divine Pair ; Last campaign it won a 3yo OWLY midweek 1100 at Ascot before finishing within two lengths of horses such as Hot Zed and Graceful Girl. That is outstanding form for this . Record suggests he might prefer a wet track however he resumed on good and ran 2nd. 40/60 % each way.

Belmont r7 Arno The Fox ; 8yo gelding who has only started 23 times for 2 wins. Last two starts he has run 2nd to a now Saturday winner and won a c1 by 5 lengths , both over today’s 1600m. Somehow the penny has dropped or he has got over some soundness issues and he looks a good each way bet.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Vevinsky ; Last start 3rd was behind Playz With Fire (Yesterday’s best bet that bolted in. That was the first time it has showed anything in five starts however the failures were as a 2yo so perhaps it has improved with maturity. This is a weak maiden and Pike jumps on.

Pinjarra r 5 Bell Lap ; Going against my usual rule of backing a last start maiden winner however the form out of the maidens looks stronger than most of rivals. If it finds the front easy enough it can go back to back at the same track and distance.

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Belmont Bangers

Best Value Belmont r3 Nobelium ; Won a trial in quick time before running a credible race first up against better opposition . No good thing but $10 / $2.30 (Tabtouch) is a juicy enough price to play on a 25/75 % basis.

Best Bet Belmont r6 Playz With Fire ( $2.10 bet365) ; Benefited from the run on debut to beat a handy maiden in Reliable Choice 2nd up with a sharp turn of foot. That horse then jumped at $1.40 and won effortlessly. Don’t usually back maiden winners at their next start but the strength of the form and the odds available on bet365 compared to odds on everywhere else swayed me to have a crack.

Belmont r7 Cable Guy (Place) ; In career best form and trying his guts out up on pace. The form from some of the efforts isn’t dynamite but you know he is going to be up there and fighting right to the line. Around $3.50 the place at maybe 10/90 % ratio just in case he pinches it.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Albany r6 Cockyjoy ; Technically up in class but it doesn’t look that harder , especially factoring in the drop in weight. Initially concerned with the drop back to 1100m , it looks a concern for most of the main fancies so happy to play .

Thursday Tips

Best Multi : Pinjarra r2 Reliable Choice Win ; Pikes first ride back from suspension is on a Peter’s Investments odds on favourite. In fact his first two are but I think this one is the most reliable choice! Considering the current 2nd favourite Madam Wu ran a seven length 10th in the same race she ran 3/4 length 2nd in on debut , with natural improvement and an extra 100m she should be winning.

Pinjarra r7 Prize Pursuit (Place) ; The Scratching of Yuna Mailman has changed this race on it’s head. Now it’s up to Blazing Warrior to decide how much company Wuhan Warrior has in the lead. It’s a lot softer tempo regardless. Prize Pursuit still gets the ideal drop on them but now they get a better chance to run it out strongly. Should be a great three way tussle with Trade War needing luck from the barrier but dangerous if he gets it.

Current Multi Price is $2.40 ( $1.85 & $1.30)

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r1 Story Book (Place) ; Hard to line up Pinjarra 1000m form but she also ran a good 2nd to Rockin Rupert mid November. Most likely gets back to last but with only seven in it I’m happy to go 10/90 % each way despite it being pay 1 & 2 only . The favourite OH SOPHIA won her maiden same day, track and distance in near identical time. Hardest to beat hence why $2.35 place vs $2.30 win looks a good bet.

Ascot r7 Pure Devotion ; Blinkers on and the 4kg weight swing against Black Shadow make me lean her way in the final major lead up to the Perth Cup. Add the teams ability to peak at the right time and she should be fighting out the finish. Huge respect to Paddy’s Shadow and Stafford’s Lad .

r7 Novelties 1st - 2nd ; 2 7 8 ($3 Quinella $6 Exacta )

3rd ; 1 2 7 8 9 10 ($24 Trifecta)

4th ; field ( $168 first 4)

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Geraldton r3 Admiral Husson ; Strike rate of only 2 wins from 36 is usually a concern but last start it took Three Sessions the whole straight to get past it. That horse started deep in the red and has a big boom on it. 3rd up today, only has to repeat last effort to hold these off for a well deserved victory.

Geraldton r6 Sans Le Sou ; Last two starts indicate she is a mare in peak form. Unlucky close 2nd over 1400m then bolting in over 1600m. Drops a kilo and draws to get a great run. Not concerned with the drop back to 1400m.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r1 Vonsnip ; The Harrison stable is one of the big early 2yo stables in the state and out of multiple entries for Wednesday’s race , this was the one that was reserved for this harder assignment. Coming off an all the way trial win in quick time where it had pressure applied from another runner before giving a good kick . 3rd in that trial won Wednesday’s race. Obviously if Revitup produces a similar run to last start then she could be too quick. Just thought from the better draw and at an each way qoute it was worth the risk.

Best Roughy Ascot r7 Vital Flirt ; Firstly let me point out it’s 100/1. It’s very likely to run unplaced but here’s my reasoning. It has never done much 1st or 2nd up and last start it was held up most of the straight and not really tested. Last preparation it ran same cracking races including a 60+ graduation win. Now considering the favourite Dance Music is coming out of the Railway and Kingston Town we are obviously facing a stiff ask. But when you consider a horse like Beret is $5.50 and a legitimate chance if the favourite doesn’t cope with the hard prep then I’m willing to waste a couple of bucks each way in case she pulls out a career peak performance at 100-1. I actually have Oceanzara in my blackbook . My notes read going much better than numerical form suggests , wait for senior rider to go back on and drop in class. Well the senior goes on but she jumps into the deepest end possible. Should be 300-1 but it provides another novelty option. Angelic Miss looks the other main winning chance.

Best Bet Ascot r9 He’s A Lucky Lad ; 3yo who was only beaten 4.5 lengths in the guineas then finished all over the top of the older horses in a midweek c3 . Steps up in grade and distance but has stayer written all over him and has plenty of upside . Looks a Derby type in the Autumn and this race is well within his reach.

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Thursday Tips

Best Roughy Pinjarra r4 Amber Mamber ; Last time she was 2nd up she knocked our horse Prize Pursuit off at 100s. We specked her first up on this basis and she ran well , finishing 5th but right alongside 3rd and the winner has won again since. Stack of speed engaged here and she will sit out the back and try and run on . Small each way speck at 20’s.

Best Value Pinjarra r5 Chad’s Me Dad ; Tipped she would improve stepping out to 1400m and she ran a bottler at big odds. Her 1/2 brother Starthefriar found 1600m a stretch but she was hitting the line hard behind a winner who went back to back yesterday. Wide open race with a long tail so $9 each way looks a decent play.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r6 Kasonori ; Won it’s maiden well as a odds on favourite then things haven’t worked out next two. Raced outside the leader into gale force winds where leading was a no go zone then was caught wide in a c3. Drops back to a c1 and were getting $7.50/$2.40 each way .

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r1 Safety Bay : Should find the front with 54kgs on her back and from there be hard to catch. The drop back to 1200m really helps. There will be a wall chasing late but think we can cling on . Providing there is 8 runners I’m going 40/60% to cover bet.

Ascot r5 Proconsent ; Put the writing on the wall with a fast finishing 2nd behind Comfort Me who then ran 2nd in a Railway . Then looked in trouble before exploding with 60kgs on his back and winning eased down. Same weight , track and distance, he’s my “Best Winning Chance “of the day but at odds on I can’t label it as my best bet. $2 even with a boost and I suggest having a crack.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Marocchino ; Has won 3/4 this distance including 2/2 at Ascot. Last start chased a leader who was going breakneck speed and then was left a sitting duck down the straight but held them reasonably comfortably on the line. Should get an easier run on speed this time and last preparation he put 5 wins in a row together so he should be in this for a very long way. $7.50 each way looks outstanding value.

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet Geraldton r5 Billy Jack ; Has strung two wins together , appreciating the step up in distance each time. This is a step up in class but drops considerably in weight.

Geraldton Quaddie (r5-8) ; 4 , 1 , field , field . $132 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Ascot r2 The Velvet Queen ; Came from last at a very short quote first up and had to really dig deep to catch a horse that has won easily herself at it’s next start ,thrashing the rest. Again the “pro’” are looking for leaders with the rail out 11 into fresh easterlies but we are yet to see anything but a fair track at Ascot. I’m backing her class in a small field to run them down. This is a very good field for a midweek but can’t get Marinsky Ballet that long in the market ($26). Spewing it’s pay 1 & 2 only so will have novelties instead.

First 4 ; 1st 9 , 2nd - 4th 1 2 7 8 ($24 for 100%).

Best Bet Ascot r3 Trevern ; Tipping him to jump and run and from there he looks very hard to catch. No spoils at $1.80 ( in from $2.15) , thinking we will get $2 +if we’re patient unless leaders are dominating.

Ascot r5 Westriver Miracle ; Usually against last start maiden winners but all the main chances in this are in the same boat or maidens . Won too easy last start and this is not much harder.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r3 Written Matter ; Solid first up win in an easier race to make it 3/4 . The pace will be hectic anytime Ziebell is engaged , add Kenyluck with an apprentice booked and Starfield Impact and the sparks should be flying off the firm deck. Watching the replays of his first two starts , his 2nd win was visually more impressive so hoping he shows the same improvement this time in as he will need to in this line up.

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1.​4.​6.​11/4/2.​3.​4.​5.​7.​10.​13.​14.​15/6 $36 for 100% *both standouts are very risky but I prefer to go for it rather than going wide and relying on a big dividend , especially with early quaddies where the pool is generally smaller.

Best Bet Ascot r7 Sheza Chalmer ; Is a horse that can find trouble in her races , no more evident than last start in the 1200m leg of this mares series , but when things fall into place she is dynamic. Angelic Miss beat her home last start but has to sustain her big sprint from near last an extra 200m . The favourite Bright Diamond was also desperately unlucky and has only missed a place once in 10 starts . Swap the silks and jockeys and Sheza Chalmer starts favourite over 1400m in my opinion but very wary. La Farola comes from a different race . She always flies first up but to win like she did with 58kgs she has to be respected , barrier 1 a tricky draw for her , will need luck getting a run. Plenty of knockout chances aswell in a great race.

Ascot r8 Western Empire / Regal Power ; With Western Empire strangling the market and for good reason we will have the quinella with the only possible danger in Regal Power. .WFA conditions , wide draw and my record of getting “morals” beat in multi’s means I’m staying well clear of the $1.40. (Punters who are on breathe a huge sigh of relief!). Many will include the filly Searchin Rocks due to the weight advantage but I’m not convinced this years 3yo form is strong enough to compete with two absolute a graders. The rest are going to battle to turn their Railway Stakes spanking around. It’s another jackpot first 4 so we will try and jag it for minimum spend.

In Order

7/1/4.​6.​8.​9.​10/3.​4.​6.​8.​9.​10 $25 for 100%

Quaddie (r6-9) FD/5/1/2.​3.​4.​8.​9.​10.​11.​12.​13 $81 for 100% * again standing out Sheza Chalmer is a huge risk but if Western Empire wins as expected then the dividend wont be massive.

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Thursday Tips

Multi “Good Thing”Northam r2 Heavenly Waters ; Very speedy 1000m specialist who should find the rail first and prove too quick. She’s still pretty green , has an apprentice on and is $1.70 . What could possibly go wrong!

Best Bet Northam r4 Sweet Admiration ; Latest trial really caught the eye , flashing home from last in quick time into a close up 3rd. The winner of that trial Lady Toronado missed the start on debut and made up many lengths . The runner up Marinsky Ballet won on the same day. Both were heavily supported and both raced on pace in the trial which gave the trial effort even more merit. At $4.20 / $1.75 40/60 % split of stake each way is the safest option, alternatively use the place as a multi leg with Heavenly Waters win. Civvy Street finds a dry track first time and is also off a nice trial. If we can get the favourite beat it could be a nice novelties race around these two.

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