Best Bet Pinjarra r4 My Boy Chris ; Good run first up considering he did a little work early and cast a plate in running. The winner has since franked the form with another brilliant win.
Best Value Pinjarra r8 Outrageous ; The run in the Winterbottom was outrageous from last . First up raced very well again without luck. Drawn to get a better run and $9 each way looks outrageous value in a great race.
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Published this Friday night and was very confident on the best bet Damn facebook didn’t publish it for some reason.
Ascot r4 My Baby Blue Jean ; In the two races she has been able to lead she has won comfortably. I think she can find the top again. Via Monte beat her home the day she didn’t lead on debut , clear danger , especially if we don’t find the front or have to work hard to get there.
Best Bet Holy Enchantment ; Trainer has taken his time getting him to the staying trip but he has always looked like he will appreciate it. Last run was a ripper considering the weight and time between runs. Finishes off his races hard and if he runs out 2200m I’m very confident he wins.
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Ascot r4 My Baby Blue Jean ; In the two races she has been able to lead she has won comfortably. I think she can find the top again. Via Monte beat her home the day she didn’t lead on debut , clear danger , especially if we don’t find the front or have to work hard to get there.
Best Bet Holy Enchantment ; Trainer has taken his time getting him to the staying trip but he has always looked like he will appreciate it. Last run was a ripper considering the weight and time between runs. Finishes off his races hard and if he runs out 2200m I’m very confident he wins.
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Best Bet Belmont r3 Cafe Nera ; Up and coming stayer who has won 2 of his last 3 against a typical midweek stayers race ie battlers with poor strike rates. 2kg claim means it stays at same weight.
Belmont r4 Georgeous Gossip ; Only 1 win from 17 starts but last start ran 2nd in the 3yo magic millions at 150s. Has raced predominantly in harder races and gets it’s chance to breakthrough. Can No Dice run a strong 1200m? Big danger if it can along with the flying Cobbanco . 25 / 75 % each way if it remains a field of 8 runners.
Best Value Belmont r9 Wild Galah ; Brought up win number 3 from 62 starts here (Transferred from Narrogin) as a $2.80 favourite. Ran 2nd previous start in a c3 , same class as today. Couldn’t possibly have the favourite Kohli who was very plain last start when backed off the map . I was one of those punters so keen on revenge and happy to play each way at $11. The three 3yo’s Mama Tembu , Private Scene and to a lesser extent Rommels War make more appeal than the favourite . Box Trifecta with Wild Galah for $24 and if Kohli wins connections can thank me !
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Best Bet Geraldton r6 Admiral Husson ; Finds the front early then it will take some beating on runs this preparation. On paper it looks very likely but other jockeys may think their best chance is making it work. For this reason I am having a saver on Human Nature who beat it home last start, 3rd that day was our roughie who saluted at Belmont Wednesday in Melody’s Secret.
Ascot r2 Rulelee ; Has gone from a tease maiden horse to putting them away very softly at last two last starts. Westpeed Platinum races are not typical Saturday grade races so the step up isn’t as big as it looks. 1400m , 1300m back to 1200m some concern but she should settle close enough to use her turn of foot to round them up.
Best Multi Ascot r3 Trade War into r5 Trix of the Trade ; Try hard not to tip odds on favourites as they rarely indicate their true chances of winning. Trade War @ $1.95 is justifiable given he doesn’t run into the flying Cheval de Vega and conditions are expected to be much more favourable than last time when leaders dominated. Trix of the Trade just looks classes above his opposition. While the winning margin wasn’t a space job last time . the jockey was very kind to him and this is no harder , in fact it’s a near identical field. The current multi price of $2.83 is a decent bet .
Best Bet Ascot r7 Cristal Dane ; Has gone from an inconsistent mare capable of a big run on her day to a most consistent performer since the stable change. From an outsider she seems to have relished the tactics change of now going forward in her races. If Watson can get her to at least outside the leader without burning too much petrol then she should prove very hard to catch . The 3kg claim is ideal however punching into a strong south westerly headwind may not be so monitor earlier races for a guide.
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Best Bet Albany r5 Spirit of Prophecy ; Has beaten a few of these home recently in running 2nd at it’s last two. Maps to get the perfect run behind the speed. Record of 1 win from 33 with 12 minor placings suggests we definately go each way to cover stake. Special Royale has the obvious upside being 1/1 and from the state’s leading yard. Should go close but is short enough for a narrow Mt Barker maiden winner.
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Belmont r1 Marchamley ; Sat outside the leader over 1200m on debut and while no match for the winner , he stuck on bravely for 2nd. Added fitness , race experience and the ideal barrier (2) suggest he can go one better. The favourite Cwyer looks a nice horse in the making however giving away experience and a tricky draw (9) makes me lean me towards taking the better price.
Best Bet Belmont r7 She’s A Sweet Deel ; Ran home satisfactorily off an unsuitable tempo behind a smart one last start. Likely to get a fair way back again but is 3/4 at Belmont where the long straight suits. By Dundeel the step up to a mile shouldn’t be an issue.
Best Roughie Belmont r10 Melody’s Secret ; First up in early December she won a Northam cl3 over today’s 1000m. Two failures at Belmont since , things went wrong on both occasions. Most recent run at Geraldton was a decent enough effort. They are more than likely going to go too hard in this and she should be parked in behind them so I’m going to have a little each way at $51 / $7.50 .
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Pinjarra r6 Karli’s Karma ; Basing this tip on this preparation’s form and her liking of the Pinjarra track. First up she beat home recent Saturday winner Pink Carat’s at 20s. Concede she got the world perfect run but she sprinted quickly when the run presented and held them comfortably to the line. 2nd up was just as impressive when she did it tough out wide , before unleashing a powerful sprint from the rear into 3rd at $8. Determined to find some value today, I was hoping the market missed her, but her opening price of $6.50 is very disappointing . Considering the jump from c3 to 66+ class I was expecting double figures at the very least. I’m still committed to playing each way as I think she gets a dream run from the good barrier.
Best Bet Pinjarra r8 She’s Greysful ; In a shocking edition of a 250k magic millions race , this filly has the draw advantage over the very few horses in the field with any form whatsoever. Was strong at the end of 1100m against most of today’s main rivals , indicating the extra 100m should be right up her ally. Sheeza Belter was a very brave 2nd in that race after doing a power of work , Street Parade encouraging 3rd from the back , Man Crush 4th and All The King’s Men 5th raced without much luck. They are all jumping from barriers 12-17 before scratchings with our tip jumping from 6. 2yo’s can improve rapidly with race experience and a couple of the roughies went ok on debut in easier races but some of these are seriously making up the numbers and could get in the way in a capacity field. To put it in perspective we easily qualified with Frantic War who ran 6th in both career starts . While we took the cautious approach that he wasn’t mentally ready for 1200m and didn’t want to risk burning him out for the thrill of racing for 250k, he’s form would suggest he could of beat a fair few of these home. No knock on anyone having a throw at the stumps, just can see a lot of traffic issues with tired horses getting in the way down the straight.
Belmont r4 Arno The Fox ; 8yo gelding in the form of his life. Racing once a month and loving it , winning his last 2 with ease . Tricky little draw to overcome (8/9) but the long Belmont straight should give him his chance. 3kg claim for same jockey as last time has him extremely well weighted.
Best Bet Belmont r5 Kohli ; Satisfactory WA debut 3rd where 2nd is now a recent Saturday winner. Has a good 2nd up record in Victoria whereas the favourite Phoneme is yet to place 2nd up in 7 attempts.
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Pinjarra r2 My Boy Chris ; Only race form is 2yo wet track races. Recent trial was very good and this race lacks depth. Dazzling Dane the clear danger.
Best Bet Pinjarra r3 Paddy’s Art ; The form out of his last two starts is superior to his rivals. Drawn for a lovely run .
Pinjarra r7 O’lara’s Prince ; Green horse who’s still learning but when balanced last start he exploded past our best bet in race 3. Open race but I feel this one has the most upside going forward. Should appreciate the new long straight.
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Ascot r4 Trade War ; Has run two fast finishing 2nds behind the flying Chevel De Vega since it’s first up win. We’ll get to the winner later in the program but the only issue is the map. Jockey will be forced to get right back again , a tow in on something’s back and it’s as good as over , having to sustain a run solo from last is a much harder task but not impossible.
Best Bet Ascot r6 Chevel De Vega ; Amazingly going for 5 straight this preparation and it doesn’t matter how the race is run , where he lands or who is riding him. He simply adapts to the situation and puts in 100% every time. This is yet another step up in class but he drops 5.5kgs after the claim for an apprentice who is 3/3 on him. The last time Chilli is Hot was at 1600m she beat Pro Consent . Nothing has separated Ginger Baker and Vital Flirt , in the past. Ginger drops in weight and Vital is big odds for a last start winner. Bruce Almighty bolted in last start but none of them are reliable as the favourite .
Novelties 1st 8 , 2nd 3 6 10 11 , 3rd & 4th , 1 3 6 10 11.
Best Value Ascot r7 Acromantula ; Best 1000m horse in this race by the length of the straight . Forget the 60kgs , not an issue. Can he cross Mood Swings and Kramden at the start and find the rail from 11. He is lightning fast but will need to be. If he does then $6 is way overs. If he doesn’t then Brooklyn Pier is the best credentialed to run past them and worth a smaller bet to save. Pink Carats has the sprint on him but is very green for this level at this stage of his career. Even though our top tip is each way odds I’m going on the nose as I think he wins or fades badly late.
Novelties 1st 1 2 , 2nd 1 2 10 ,3rd & 4th 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 .
Ascot r8 Miss Conteki ; Yes she is creeping up in the weights and stretches to 1200m but she is simply too brilliant for them in my opinion. Price only thing stopping me from getting too excited.
Tipping a lot of favourites again. Hopefully we can get something out of the novelties.
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Geraldton r2 Thunder of Guns ; The 2.5 lengths behind Burnya to Survive caught my eye in this moderate line up. Hoping the addition of blinkers helps it find a length or two which would be sufficient to win this.
Best Bet Geraldton r5 Significant Hero ; This is a significant drop in class and Rawiller at a regular country Geraldton meeting is a handy get. Just has to carry the weight and should be too classy.
Geraldton Quaddie (r4-7) ; field, 2 , 3 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 11 . $72 for 100%
Best Value Belmont r1 Frantic War ; Has race experience and a good barrier , both worth their weight in gold in 2yo racing. $10 / $3.20 looks the right price to have an each way bet . Go Plucka!
Best Roughie Belmont r1 It’s All A Rumour ; Also having a small each way bet on this as it was luckless on debut and only finished 3 lengths off the winner. Looks overs.
Race 1 Trifecta ; Boxing numbers 1 2 3 4 for $24 . Sticking with the race experience and going around the rest who are all on debut.
Best Bet Belmont r7 No Dice ; Ran straight past a long odds on favourite first up . Night’s Mystery will run them along , Belmont is a hard track to lead and win at this summer . State of Power has the right 2yo form , I prefer to see them reproduce it when back as a 3yo hence sticking with No Dice.
Belmont r12 Gambler’s Gold ; Backed up it’s first up maiden win with a fast finishing 2nd with limited room to move. Drawn to get it soft and with a little more room can make amends. Both trainer and jockey are on fire.
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Best Bet Belmont r6 Come Right Back ; Put practically the same field as this to the sword last start. Yes he loses Pike for an apprentice and that’s a big difference in staying races however all Pike did that day was keep him out of trouble . Considering it allows him to meet logical danger Black Chips better at the weights I’m going to back the young hoop in to repeat the result.
Belmont r11 Burnya To Survive ; Undefeated this prep , he is flying through the grades with a devastating turn of foot . Always hard to jump on a horse going for 4 in a row and the price is pretty ordinary to be honest . Races like 1400m will suit even better and the rise in class is offset by the 1kg weight drop.
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Best Bet Mt Barker r7 Shake Baby Shake ; 3yo filly from the states leading stable with a white hot jockey in the saddle. Should find the top or close enough to it and from there the odds on favourite will have to run her down first up. Not easy to do at Mt Barker.
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Pinjarra r5 Private Scene ; Most of these have had plenty of chances , even our tip has had 6 cracks at it but looks to be ready stepping out to the mile after being held up latest before attacking the line behind a winner who was expected to win.
Pinjarra r6 Prize Pursuit ; If he showed up at his best and got a good steer / luck from the barrier then $8.50 each way looks a steal. Too many ifs to have a decent bet though so either small stake or throw him in the quaddie.
Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Vevinsky ; Found him when he led all the way in emphatic style in a weak maiden . Found himself way back next start before making up big ground late. Should settle closer and appreciate the 1800m.
Pinjarra Quaddie (R5-8) ; 1 6 10 , 1 5 7 , 4, 3 6 9 10. $46 for 100%
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Geraldton r3 Exquisite Star ; Has run a couple of Northam 3rds and resumes here off 3 horse trial romp. Form of trial no guide but horse is obviously feeling well for first run in the region and should get the right run for Turner who rides the track well. Each way.
Geraldton r8 Son Son ; Is a city Saturday grade horse and maps to get the world perfect trail on the back of local speedster Kenyluck. Kenny has never raced better and if it was 1100m I wouldn’t be able to split them.
R8 Novelties
1st 2
2nd 3 12 ($2 exacta)
3rd 1.3.4.9.10.11.12 ($12 Trifecta)
4th field ($120 first 4)
Best Bet Geraldton r9 Corn Cob ; 2/2 despite racing very greenly. Stays in the same grade and you would imagine will improve his manners with race experience so must be very hard to beat again.
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Best Value Ascot r7 Pro Is Here ; Tough ask to bring Albany maiden and Mount Barker c1 form straight to town but both wins were arrogant and he ran strong through the line indicating 1500m no issue. Wolfe is a master of getting them ready at home and then picking the right race to come to town. Think he leads and gives a kick at $10 each way.. Cheval De Vaga will have to run them down with 59.5kgs and Trade War from a long way back but both are hard to beat.
Best Bet Ascot r9 Miss Conteki ; Mouth watering clash between two brilliant mares. Chris Parnham had the choice and went with Miss Conteki. She will be near last and hoisted to the outside to unleash her unbelievable turn of foot. Clairvoyance will be tearing along up front. Her trainer stated he didn’t want to go to Albany last week because of the extra 30m (1230m), first up off serious injury. Considering this field would absolutely brain that one, she would want to be a long way in front to hold off Miss Conteki late. Don’t completely rule out Hot Zed.
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Best Bet Pinjarra r2 My Baby Blue Jean ; Tipping the slightly easier tempo of 1200m racing will help her after she got caught working outside the leader over 1000m on debut. She was sensationally backed that day and held on for third in a maiden with some ok form . Jockey trainer combo are always hard to beat.
Pinjarra r4 So Likeable ; His initial campaign was two starts on heavy tracks as a 2yo so no real guide . Has had four trials including two over 1450m to prepare for the 1500m first up. The latest one he led all the way and won softly . This race is pretty weak so I’ll spec that he has enough ability to go close.
