Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r1 My Marlaina ; Has won 2 / 3 this prep by running them along in front , latest might of only been Geraldton but she lumped a big weight and did it easily. Not sure what happened the 1 start in between where she didn’t lead and was terribly disappointing. From barrier 1 she kicks up and finds the front . Taking on the short priced favourite Alsephina purely on the map advantage . If you are eligible for Tabtouch’s money back 2nd promotion that’s a no brainer.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Northam r1 Blue Card ; Between them this 4 horse field has had 59 starts for 12 places. Our selection was trying out a staying trip for the first time and out plugged two of the others into 3rd. You would think he can be fitter for the run so I can’t work out why he is the roughest of the three. Not getting carried away in such a weak race but like the price . ($3.80) .

Best Value Northam r7 Comfort Me ; Let me start by saying if Elite St is ready to rock then it just wins. Going off it’s trial I’m not convinced it is. Comfort Me’s trial was huge and we are getting $11 each way where as to back the champ you have to take $2.50. Was a revelation last prep , running 2nd in a Railway Stakes. This is a proper sprint with pace to burn so it wont be easy but the trial indicated intent , not just a first up run. Cup Night loves Northam and won this race first up last year. Definitely been targeted to repeat this year and should be in the finish. $6 opposed to $11 made me lean to Comfort Me but I may have a smaller bet.

R7 Novelties First & 2nd ; 1 7 9 3rd 1 3 5 7 11 4th ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 .

$3 quinella , $24 Trifecta , $144 first 4 .

This race analysis is based on a track you can make ground. If the 6 previous races indicate a leader rail bias then these bets could be put in the bin!

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Weekend Winners

The following selections for Saturday’s Ascot card all look hard to beat but all 3 are ridiculously short in the market. I am going to play the quaddie with different combinations for different units. I will put a suggested price with each tip so If the market obliges we can consider backing them for the win.

Ascot r6 Sneaky Chance ; Kicked off it’s campaign with a 3yo maiden victory , then a c1 and a Saturday 3yo 62+ . Stays on the minimum due to the rise in class and maps to smoke the pipe behind a hot speed . Trainer has openly stated she has terrible breathing issues so I’m cautious with the step up to 1200m . If she runs it out she is the most likely winner but $2.20 is too short to find out. Min $2.80 needed. Apple Schnapps the clear danger.

Best Bet Ascot r7 Buzzoom ; 3rd up 1400m with a 1.5kg weight swing gives her every opportunity to turn the tables on Amasenus . That mare has won 9/19 and can’t be taken lightly. $2.20 borderline , $2.50 would lure me in .

Ascot r8 Otheroneson ; Racing manners cost it the race last start over 1400m. If that race was today’s 1600m it most likely still wins . 1600m usually sees Kia Ora Star out . $1.60 for a green 3yo untried past 1400m and up in class is a big no no for mine. $2 absolute minimum.

Quaddie 1 (r6-9) 1 9 , 4 8 , 3 6 , 4 7 11 $24 for 100% (Spending $48 for 200%)

Quaddie 2 ; 1 9 ; 8 , 6 , 4 7 11 $6 for 100% (Spending $48 for 800%)

Quaddie 3 1 9 ; 8 , 3 6 , 1 2 $8 for 100% (Spending $4 for 50%)

Total Quadie spend $100.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Bentley Beau ; Yes it took 12 starts to break through but quite often the confidence they gain from finally winning one flows into the next couple of runs, especially when they were consistently just missing. Suited by the step up to 1800m , soft ground no issue , ticks a lot of boxes. $1.80 a place allows you to go 25/75 % if your that way inclined. ( Safer / Long term profit punter vs having a decent collect short term.)

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Monday Money Makers

Ascot r1 Wakan Tanka ; Grabbed in the shadows last start by a progressive mare who would be hard to beat here . Gets control of this out in front with little pressure on paper and a light weight after the claim. His record of 60 starts and 3 wins with a further 24 places suggests he gets grabbed before the post on most occasions. I expect Keytrade the one most likely to be reeling him in late , he most likely settles last so hopefully we get a good enough break at the top of the straight and don’t wait for him to pounce. Good Quinella .

Best Bet Ascot r6 Thorogood ; Didn’t beat much on WA debut but did it in style from last over 1200m. Looked to do it with ease so the 1400m should suit even better and can sit closer from the better barrier.

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Ascot r4 Arno The Fox ; Should of at least placed last start but the young apprentice looked reluctant to take the gap or the gap wasn’t quite there , hard to say from the lounge. If she can keep it off the fence and produce it at the right time this time this consistent galloper can be in the finish. Very open race and happy to have an each way bet providing it remains a 8 horse field.

Best Bet Ascot r5 Timely Outburst ; Is definitely the fastest horse in the race , can the apprentice handle the pressure of riding a Saturday short priced favourite from the outside barrier? I actually prefer the wide draw with apprentices , can work his way over or sit outside the leader . Sometimes the experienced jockeys can really put the pressure on if drawn outside the kids. Great first up record , great distance record and great trial leading in. The only question is price at $2,20 , it’s getting skinny factoring in the jockey.

Ascot Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 3 4 ; 1 3 5 8 9 , 2 3 4 5 6 8 , 3 . $90 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Albany r7 Tizzle Top ; Ummed and Arghhed for ages over this race. Our selection won a very weak 1600m maiden on debut against the older horses. Despite the strength of the form , for a 3yo to win easily over 1600m on debut indicates a fair bit of staying potential. While he meets better performed horses terribly at the weights , I’m banking on him being the strongest late . Dad’s Bigheaded and Art Admirer bring much stronger form and race fitness to the table but both have only won 2 from 34 attempts vs 1 /1 . If Art Admirer starts here and not York Monday it looks a good boxed quinella.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r3 Guns of Navarone : A repeat of any of his last 4 starts in much harder company sees him going very close in this. Not really a straight out horse so we will go 40/60 % split of stake at current odds of $5 / $1.90

Ascot r3 Galaxy Cat ; Also going to have a 10/90 % bet here in the same race. While he was no match for the highly progressive My Mate at his latest run , he ran on ok into 2nd over 1200m and won his previous race down the Pinjarra straight 1000m . 1100m from a good barrier looks ideal and he can be in the finish despite the big rise in class at $13/ $3.60.

Best Value Ascot r8 Sweep The Leg ; Was heavily backed on debut , sat wide no cover and still loomed into it like it was over before peaking on the run and running 2nd to Baby Paris . That horse then ran 2nd to Boom 2yo Amelia’s Jewel in the Karrakatta Plate . Winkers on for added concentration and a better run in transit should see us get a big run for our money at juicy each way prices. Currently paying $8.50/$2.60 .

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Bookie Crucifixion

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Our Danni ; Looked the winner first run here before peaking on the run. Raced competitively against some of WA’s best 3yo’s last season so should be able to win a few races up in Kal.

Ascot r8 Boxed Quinella 3 7 8 ; Can’t split the 3yo fillies with little separating them in all the 3yo features in the spring. Amasenus has a brilliant strike rate and her first up run last time was very good in this sort of company. Costs $3 to box all 3 in the quinella , I’ll be playing for 10 units ($30).

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Bentley Beau ; 11 start maiden whom has placed 2nd on 6 occasions and 3rd twice. Resumed with one of those 2nds over 1300m and previous campaign resumed with 4 seconds in a row. Yes the record hardly screams best bet but the other big chance Steels The Deel is untried at the distance and will have to sustain a long run from the back as his normal pattern , especially drawn wide. Bentley has drawn 1 and could possibly control it from the front or sit in the box seat.

Pinjarra Quaddie (r5-8) 2 9 , 1 2 ,3 5 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10. $80 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Geraldton r3 Honorfic ; Presented to the races 61 days between runs with bar plates on last start. Thought the run was massive considering and the bars come off today. Confident it has the locals covered , just has to contend with the Perth visitor Celebrity Witness.

Best Roughie Geraldton r5 Jupiter Rising ; Has been slow away last two starts . Before that ran 2nd to Startrade who would start short and win this. Track and distance winner in a 70+ in January. Really mixes his form but at $34 i’m willing to have an each way nibble in the hope he shows his best. Was $61 last night. Backing them at these prices is a small stakes and long term game but I’m not having any luck with the odds on favs so fingers crossed we jag a result.

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Weekend Winners

Best Multi Filler Ascot r1 Acromantula ; One of the quickest 1000m specialists in the state and when he’s drawn to lead uncontested he wins more often than not. 2kg claim only strengthens his claims . $1.75 is getting into the risk vs reward category but I think he justifies it so if your a multi player , he’s a solid anchor leg.

Ascot r5 Featherweight ; Resumed off a long spell with a good 2nd behind a promising horse who has won again since. Then sat 3 wide no cover with 59.5kgs and won with a leg in the air , showing an explosive turn of foot. From barrier 1 Chris Parnham can lead or potentially box seat on last start all the way winner My Marliana. Chris rode her that day and sides with Featherweight who ironically carries topweight. My Marliana is worth a smaller each way bet. Totally against the fav Harmika here. Sure comes from a stronger race but she maps awkwardly , either back or working wide. Talented enough but no way is she an odds on chance.

Best Bet Ascot r8 Alaskan God; Picked him out as a likely Derby prospect about 6 weeks ago and backed him in the futures market for a good result. After smacking the older horses , something rarely done in middle distance racing he did a similar job to the other 3yo’s in the Melvista despite sitting wide the trip. If your a weights and measure’s believer then the 3kg swing towards Trix of the Trade makes him the obvious danger. He has been backed into favouritism with the two dominating the market. While Trix was visually impressive coming from last , I still believe we did more work in the run and were holding him comfortably.

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Narrogin Numbers

Best Bet Narrogin r6 Ready to Ride ; Surprise Pinjarra c5 winner in fast time two back then ran ok at Ascot. Drops back to a Narrogin 52+ and gets 3kg claim to help with the rise in weight. Certainly in the right stable to cope with the rise in trip and can race handy which is desirable at this venue.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r4 Sneaky Chance ; Raced in all the big 2yo races last season then resumed with a very soft win over a subsequent winner. Frustrated it’s come up so short ($2.20) , bookies seem to be operating at a very high percentage these days but It’s more than a sneaky chance and I’m keen.

Ascot r7 Arno The Fox ; Each way the field type race where best ride / luck in running could be the difference. Arno will park behind the likely leader in Wakan Tanka and try and run it down like last time. The extra 100m suits the fox better than the tank . Anything could win but Arno will get the right run and has been so good to us we will go again on a 40/60 % spilt of stake .

Ascot Quaddie (r4-7) ; 7 ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 , 1 9 , 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 . $112 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Zadar Rock ; Led and controlled it first up and was never going to lose . Should find the front again here and the extra 100m wont be an issue. $2.15 isn’t going to make us rich but it’s about right in my opinion.

Quaddie (r6-9); 3 , 2 3 4 6 7 8 10 11 13 , 1 3 9 , 2 4 8 $81 for 100%

We are on weather watch for this meeting. Thunderstorms are predicted so if they arrive and make the conditions tough I will just leave it and save my money for another day.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r5 Gold Merits ; Still having nightmares about last start when she got out too late and charged , missing the breakaway leader by a nostril , big gap to 3rd. She is a get back and explode late type of mare so it’s always going to be heart in mouth type stuff but we simply have to back up. Much happier with barrier 6 opposed to 1 , hopefully Laqdar stays off the fence to make finding a run easier for himself. Time Scale will be in front for a long way , could be a sense of deja vu halfway down the straight. The Thunderess was back to her best first up , gets a lovely run , very dangerous .

Best Roughie Ascot r7 Costume Party ; While the boom on the favourite is justified , she still has to jump from barrier 15 of a capacity field of 16 2yo’s. She either settles last and comes via the carpark or risks getting posted 3 /4 deep the trip . At $1.80 we’ll leave her for the brave / silly punters . Costume Party looks primed to run a race 3rd up. Raced without luck both first and 2nd up behind the same fav she meets here. Yes we’re most likely needing bad luck for the fav and a great ride from Mcnaught from barrier 12 but we’re getting $31 / $6 . Tipping midfield , 3 deep with cover could be the place to be and suits her racing style , so hopefully Jade can find some cover and let her rip down the straight. Nothing wrong with She’s Greysful”s form or first up run. The colts don’t look as good as the fillies but most have drawn much better which brings them in it. In summary 10/90 % split of stake and a crack at the novelties.

1st ; 10 11 12

2nd - 4th 2 3 10 11 12 $36 trifecta $72 first 4.

There’s a doubt on She’s Greysful(12) starting , add 2 to 1st and 4 into 2nd -4th.if she comes out.

You could include most of the field for 3rd and 4th but that’s expensive and still hard to get . I will have the above combo’s for 100% trifecta , 25 % First 4.

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Friday Fill Up

Best Bet Albany r6 Hoolahoops ; Is at the top of her game and deserving of another win. Big runs in defeat last few.

Best Value Albany r7 Scream in Blue ; $12/ $3.30 for a last start Mount Barker Cup runner up vs $2.45 for a fav who’s a bit hit and miss seems like a good bet to me. Down on the minimum in a easier race.

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Ascot Analysis

Best Bet Ascot r2 All The Kings Men ; 2yo who has raced without luck his entire career to date. Always running on late , suggesting the 1400m will be suitable. Might have to go back to last from the wide gate but should have the finish on him to round up the small field. The price is disappearing as I type so best be quick if you agree with me.

Ascot Quaddie (r4-8) ; 1 , 1 3 5 , 1 2 3 , 1 2 3 4 6 7 9 10 11 . $99 FOR 100%

• No Dice should be winning r4 but she has 59kgs and has been up a long time so I am going to stand her out in the quaddie rather than having a big win bet at the short odds.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Pinjarra r8 My Mate; Didn’t handle the straight 1000m first up but only two starts around a bend have been ultra impressive. Controls it from the front and takes running down. Pick Your Battles most likely sits right on his hammer and it’s a long straight so will get his opportunity and is the clear danger .

Pinjarra Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1 2 7 8 10 , 2 3 4 , 1 3 4 5 8 , 6 (3) $75 for 100% (could include 3 for a smaller percentage for insurance.

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Sunday Prayers

Geraldton r2 Pop The Moet ; 17 start maiden who has somehow turned the corner last two starts. Sat outside leader on a mad leaders bias day and toughed it out for 2nd , streaking the rest. Again sat outside the leader and hit the front only to be nabbed on the line. Expect it to lead today and be hard to catch. The favourite is better suited to 1200m but you can leave me out of $1.65 . Going a conservative 25/75 split of stake.

Best Bet Geraldton r4 The Witch Doctor ; Showed a great turn of foot to come from last up the cutaway last start . Versatile mare who actually drops in weight due to the class rise. Pit to Win is flying and the young hoop is having a big week. Edmond should improve off the first up run , just feel the witch is the bet at the better odds.

Geraldton Quaddie (r4-7) ; 2 4 6 ; 1 5 7 8 , 1 3 , 4 5 6 9 10 11 . $144 for 100%

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