Best Bet Albany r3 Oristano ; While I originally thought this horse would be at a higher level than this by now I think this is his most suitable race in some time. Beaten under a length in harder races last two. With the apprentice still learning his craft and riding a horse that needs strong encouragement to find the line we won’t get carried away but he is the one to beat.
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Black Booker Belmont r4 Chad’s Me Dad ; Recent trial she was ridden positively over 1000m and clung on. That indicates to me that they will again be positive to make the most of the low draw and light weight after the claim. Love the 1400m first up , worried I might be going one start too early with only one trial under her belt , especially in the soft conditions but it wasn’t a long spell. $11 / $3.50 is borderline value as this is a step up compared to what she’s beat previously . Heavy place each way and not a big stake bet.
Best Value Belmont r6 She’s Enchanted ; Raced without luck last prep but still added two placings behind Amasenus . That form is ridiculously hot for this. Trial was enormous and she is a luxurious each way price ($11) at the moment. She has won on soft previously.
Best Bet Belmont r7 Atlantis Beach ; Put the writing on the wall last start when coming from another post code to run 2nd to a smart 3yo who had the run of the race. Drops in class and doesn’t need to get as far back from the barrier.
Belmont r8 Elite St ; Best sprinter in WA by a country mile. How they can possibly beat him at WFA is beyond me but the market suggests they can. Group 1 winner at 1200m , handles soft ground ( only reason I can come up with why it’s not odds on). Last time I tipped this horse as a living certainty it suffered a bleeding attack (still ran 3rd in a group 1) so I will refrain but barring horrible luck or injury it really should be winning. Valour rd is the other WFA class and loves wet tracks if there was to be an upset.
Belmont Quaddie (r6-9)
Skinny Version ; 1 7 8 11 , 5 , 2 , 4 7 $8 for 100% ( I will be playing $80 for 1000%)
Wide Version ; 1 7 8 11 , 1 2 4 5 11 14 , 1 2 , 1 4 7 . $144 for 100% ( I will be playing $72 for 50%)
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Best Bet Northam r6 Sketta ; Brings Ascot c3 form to Northam where as most of the others come from Geraldton. 3kg claim gets her in nicely at the weights. Hopefully the rain arrives as she loves wet ground.
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Best Value Pinjarra r5 Talented Escape ; Should be ready to peak 3rd up and last campaign put a couple of solid wins on the board. This is wide open and 4 lengths behind Brother Paddy is good enough to suggest $16 / $4.20 is overs compared to some of the fancies , especially with the weight differential after the claim.
Pinjarra r6 Said No One Ever ; Another one 3rd up ready to peak at his pet distance . (4 starts for 2 wins 1 second .) Down in class and $8.50 / $2.60 looks very juicy. Acting God looks a big danger and will most likely save but can’t get them that far apart in the market ($3.20).
Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Life for a Life ; First up run was enormous at 50s. Didn’t think Narrogin would suit 2nd up and it proved correct , being held up til it was too late. The same finishing burst looks very dangerous at Pinjarra Scarpside . 40 / 60 % split of stake to be safe.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r3 Kallaroo ; Former Fairetha Stakes winner who lost his way. Watching his three runs for the new stable it’s pretty obvious he needs a strong Standover type jockey to get the best out of him. Rawiller got him over the line in between two runs with lesser riders on where the horse was slow away and to my eye had plenty in the tank when hitting the line. Our Sunday Prayers are more directed to Brad returning a negative Covid test in the morning ! $2.20 on b365 is a great price providing he does .
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Ascot r2 Tadweer ; Won it’s first two starts in provincial Victoria then was thrown in the deep end in a Stakes race at Flemington. While it ran 7/8 it was only beaten 5.25 lengths behind Profiteer . It’s now with the Gangemi’s and it’s only trial was a satisfactory 3rd without his race day blinkers on. Have no idea on the story about the move interstate but the Stable excel with these type of horses . The market will decide how confidently to bet , shame it’s only 7 runners.
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Best Bet Ascot r1 My Marlaina ; Has won 2 / 3 this prep by running them along in front , latest might of only been Geraldton but she lumped a big weight and did it easily. Not sure what happened the 1 start in between where she didn’t lead and was terribly disappointing. From barrier 1 she kicks up and finds the front . Taking on the short priced favourite Alsephina purely on the map advantage . If you are eligible for Tabtouch’s money back 2nd promotion that’s a no brainer.
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Best Bet Northam r1 Blue Card ; Between them this 4 horse field has had 59 starts for 12 places. Our selection was trying out a staying trip for the first time and out plugged two of the others into 3rd. You would think he can be fitter for the run so I can’t work out why he is the roughest of the three. Not getting carried away in such a weak race but like the price . ($3.80) .
Best Value Northam r7 Comfort Me ; Let me start by saying if Elite St is ready to rock then it just wins. Going off it’s trial I’m not convinced it is. Comfort Me’s trial was huge and we are getting $11 each way where as to back the champ you have to take $2.50. Was a revelation last prep , running 2nd in a Railway Stakes. This is a proper sprint with pace to burn so it wont be easy but the trial indicated intent , not just a first up run. Cup Night loves Northam and won this race first up last year. Definitely been targeted to repeat this year and should be in the finish. $6 opposed to $11 made me lean to Comfort Me but I may have a smaller bet.
R7 Novelties First & 2nd ; 1 7 9 3rd 1 3 5 7 11 4th ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 .
$3 quinella , $24 Trifecta , $144 first 4 .
This race analysis is based on a track you can make ground. If the 6 previous races indicate a leader rail bias then these bets could be put in the bin!
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The following selections for Saturday’s Ascot card all look hard to beat but all 3 are ridiculously short in the market. I am going to play the quaddie with different combinations for different units. I will put a suggested price with each tip so If the market obliges we can consider backing them for the win.
Ascot r6 Sneaky Chance ; Kicked off it’s campaign with a 3yo maiden victory , then a c1 and a Saturday 3yo 62+ . Stays on the minimum due to the rise in class and maps to smoke the pipe behind a hot speed . Trainer has openly stated she has terrible breathing issues so I’m cautious with the step up to 1200m . If she runs it out she is the most likely winner but $2.20 is too short to find out. Min $2.80 needed. Apple Schnapps the clear danger.
Best Bet Ascot r7 Buzzoom ; 3rd up 1400m with a 1.5kg weight swing gives her every opportunity to turn the tables on Amasenus . That mare has won 9/19 and can’t be taken lightly. $2.20 borderline , $2.50 would lure me in .
Ascot r8 Otheroneson ; Racing manners cost it the race last start over 1400m. If that race was today’s 1600m it most likely still wins . 1600m usually sees Kia Ora Star out . $1.60 for a green 3yo untried past 1400m and up in class is a big no no for mine. $2 absolute minimum.
Quaddie 1 (r6-9) 1 9 , 4 8 , 3 6 , 4 7 11 $24 for 100% (Spending $48 for 200%)
Quaddie 2 ; 1 9 ; 8 , 6 , 4 7 11 $6 for 100% (Spending $48 for 800%)
Quaddie 3 1 9 ; 8 , 3 6 , 1 2 $8 for 100% (Spending $4 for 50%)
Total Quadie spend $100.
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Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Bentley Beau ; Yes it took 12 starts to break through but quite often the confidence they gain from finally winning one flows into the next couple of runs, especially when they were consistently just missing. Suited by the step up to 1800m , soft ground no issue , ticks a lot of boxes. $1.80 a place allows you to go 25/75 % if your that way inclined. ( Safer / Long term profit punter vs having a decent collect short term.)
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Ascot r1 Wakan Tanka ; Grabbed in the shadows last start by a progressive mare who would be hard to beat here . Gets control of this out in front with little pressure on paper and a light weight after the claim. His record of 60 starts and 3 wins with a further 24 places suggests he gets grabbed before the post on most occasions. I expect Keytrade the one most likely to be reeling him in late , he most likely settles last so hopefully we get a good enough break at the top of the straight and don’t wait for him to pounce. Good Quinella .
Best Bet Ascot r6 Thorogood ; Didn’t beat much on WA debut but did it in style from last over 1200m. Looked to do it with ease so the 1400m should suit even better and can sit closer from the better barrier.
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Best Value Ascot r4 Arno The Fox ; Should of at least placed last start but the young apprentice looked reluctant to take the gap or the gap wasn’t quite there , hard to say from the lounge. If she can keep it off the fence and produce it at the right time this time this consistent galloper can be in the finish. Very open race and happy to have an each way bet providing it remains a 8 horse field.
Best Bet Ascot r5 Timely Outburst ; Is definitely the fastest horse in the race , can the apprentice handle the pressure of riding a Saturday short priced favourite from the outside barrier? I actually prefer the wide draw with apprentices , can work his way over or sit outside the leader . Sometimes the experienced jockeys can really put the pressure on if drawn outside the kids. Great first up record , great distance record and great trial leading in. The only question is price at $2,20 , it’s getting skinny factoring in the jockey.
Ascot Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 3 4 ; 1 3 5 8 9 , 2 3 4 5 6 8 , 3 . $90 for 100%
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Best Bet Albany r7 Tizzle Top ; Ummed and Arghhed for ages over this race. Our selection won a very weak 1600m maiden on debut against the older horses. Despite the strength of the form , for a 3yo to win easily over 1600m on debut indicates a fair bit of staying potential. While he meets better performed horses terribly at the weights , I’m banking on him being the strongest late . Dad’s Bigheaded and Art Admirer bring much stronger form and race fitness to the table but both have only won 2 from 34 attempts vs 1 /1 . If Art Admirer starts here and not York Monday it looks a good boxed quinella.
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Best Bet Ascot r3 Guns of Navarone : A repeat of any of his last 4 starts in much harder company sees him going very close in this. Not really a straight out horse so we will go 40/60 % split of stake at current odds of $5 / $1.90
Ascot r3 Galaxy Cat ; Also going to have a 10/90 % bet here in the same race. While he was no match for the highly progressive My Mate at his latest run , he ran on ok into 2nd over 1200m and won his previous race down the Pinjarra straight 1000m . 1100m from a good barrier looks ideal and he can be in the finish despite the big rise in class at $13/ $3.60.
Best Value Ascot r8 Sweep The Leg ; Was heavily backed on debut , sat wide no cover and still loomed into it like it was over before peaking on the run and running 2nd to Baby Paris . That horse then ran 2nd to Boom 2yo Amelia’s Jewel in the Karrakatta Plate . Winkers on for added concentration and a better run in transit should see us get a big run for our money at juicy each way prices. Currently paying $8.50/$2.60 .
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Our Danni ; Looked the winner first run here before peaking on the run. Raced competitively against some of WA’s best 3yo’s last season so should be able to win a few races up in Kal.
Ascot r8 Boxed Quinella 3 7 8 ; Can’t split the 3yo fillies with little separating them in all the 3yo features in the spring. Amasenus has a brilliant strike rate and her first up run last time was very good in this sort of company. Costs $3 to box all 3 in the quinella , I’ll be playing for 10 units ($30).
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Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Bentley Beau ; 11 start maiden whom has placed 2nd on 6 occasions and 3rd twice. Resumed with one of those 2nds over 1300m and previous campaign resumed with 4 seconds in a row. Yes the record hardly screams best bet but the other big chance Steels The Deel is untried at the distance and will have to sustain a long run from the back as his normal pattern , especially drawn wide. Bentley has drawn 1 and could possibly control it from the front or sit in the box seat.
Pinjarra Quaddie (r5-8) 2 9 , 1 2 ,3 5 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10. $80 for 100%
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Best Bet Geraldton r3 Honorfic ; Presented to the races 61 days between runs with bar plates on last start. Thought the run was massive considering and the bars come off today. Confident it has the locals covered , just has to contend with the Perth visitor Celebrity Witness.
Best Roughie Geraldton r5 Jupiter Rising ; Has been slow away last two starts . Before that ran 2nd to Startrade who would start short and win this. Track and distance winner in a 70+ in January. Really mixes his form but at $34 i’m willing to have an each way nibble in the hope he shows his best. Was $61 last night. Backing them at these prices is a small stakes and long term game but I’m not having any luck with the odds on favs so fingers crossed we jag a result.
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Best Multi Filler Ascot r1 Acromantula ; One of the quickest 1000m specialists in the state and when he’s drawn to lead uncontested he wins more often than not. 2kg claim only strengthens his claims . $1.75 is getting into the risk vs reward category but I think he justifies it so if your a multi player , he’s a solid anchor leg.
Ascot r5 Featherweight ; Resumed off a long spell with a good 2nd behind a promising horse who has won again since. Then sat 3 wide no cover with 59.5kgs and won with a leg in the air , showing an explosive turn of foot. From barrier 1 Chris Parnham can lead or potentially box seat on last start all the way winner My Marliana. Chris rode her that day and sides with Featherweight who ironically carries topweight. My Marliana is worth a smaller each way bet. Totally against the fav Harmika here. Sure comes from a stronger race but she maps awkwardly , either back or working wide. Talented enough but no way is she an odds on chance.
Best Bet Ascot r8 Alaskan God; Picked him out as a likely Derby prospect about 6 weeks ago and backed him in the futures market for a good result. After smacking the older horses , something rarely done in middle distance racing he did a similar job to the other 3yo’s in the Melvista despite sitting wide the trip. If your a weights and measure’s believer then the 3kg swing towards Trix of the Trade makes him the obvious danger. He has been backed into favouritism with the two dominating the market. While Trix was visually impressive coming from last , I still believe we did more work in the run and were holding him comfortably.
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Best Bet Narrogin r6 Ready to Ride ; Surprise Pinjarra c5 winner in fast time two back then ran ok at Ascot. Drops back to a Narrogin 52+ and gets 3kg claim to help with the rise in weight. Certainly in the right stable to cope with the rise in trip and can race handy which is desirable at this venue.
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Best Bet Ascot r4 Sneaky Chance ; Raced in all the big 2yo races last season then resumed with a very soft win over a subsequent winner. Frustrated it’s come up so short ($2.20) , bookies seem to be operating at a very high percentage these days but It’s more than a sneaky chance and I’m keen.
Ascot r7 Arno The Fox ; Each way the field type race where best ride / luck in running could be the difference. Arno will park behind the likely leader in Wakan Tanka and try and run it down like last time. The extra 100m suits the fox better than the tank . Anything could win but Arno will get the right run and has been so good to us we will go again on a 40/60 % spilt of stake .
Ascot Quaddie (r4-7) ; 7 ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 , 1 9 , 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 . $112 for 100%
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