Weekend Winners

Belmont R7 Allez Allez ; This is a deeper race than what he beat from the breeze last start but he maps to get a great run , handles wet ground and is yet to run a bad race for #THELANETRAIN . It’s each way the field and I can’t see him not being in the finish.

Best Bet Belmont R9 Ginger Baker ; I feel like i need to wash my mouth out with soap tipping this horse let alone making him the best bet but …. Once the biggest tease going around , he has magically turned the corner , winning three on the bounce before a massive run when slowly away from a wide gate and finishing off hard behind Vast Art . Loves wet Belmont and draws to either lead or sit right behind them . Vast Art is the better horse and will take no end of holding out but I’m going to back Ginger Baker on a 25/75% split to hopefully get a result .

R9 First 4 ; 2.​8/2.​8.​/4.10 11.​12.​14/3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​9.​10.​11.​12.​13.​14 . $100 for 100%

It’s a jackpot first 4 so although it’s tough I will play for a flexi percentage as it should pay well if we jag it.

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r3 Silver Back Jack ; Has been well supported in two runs to date and both times he’s hit the line late. 3rd up 1600m looks like ideal conditions to break through in a race where most of had plenty of chances.

Northam r6 Dance of the South; A repeat of her last two efforts will beat these , all of them are out of form. Chokslam is the clear class runner however jumping 800m from 1400m 2nd up with 60kg is a task.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r1 Saloon Bar ; Being beaten by the bob first up behind talented and very much inform filly Universal Flair over 1200m indicates he is in for a good campaign. Has a great soft track record and has won over 1400m previously. Looks to get a soft run behind the speed and use his turn of foot to out sprint them in the small field. Confidence isn’t super high but it’s my best on a typically tough winter’s Belmont Park meeting.

Port Hedland r1 Sea Waif ; Likes to roll out in front and that’s exactly what she did first run on dirt and she never looked like being beat. Leading on the dirt is a massive advantage and she should go very close to repeating an all the way win.

Port Hedland r4 Land of Valens ; First start in WA resulted in a win at Ascot , then only beaten 3.5 lengths by listed winner Ghost Who Walks , then came to Port Hedland and won as he liked. All runs have been spaced and he turns up fresh again today.

Port Hedland r5 Galiba ; She’s won her last two and she drops in weight thanks to the 3kg claim. Looks extremely well placed to bring up the hattrick .

Derby r3 Wuhan Warrior ; First two dirt runs were handlebars down out in front and they couldn’t see which way he went. Couldn’t cross next start and that made him a sitting duck for one of his back . Drawn 1 he will hold up the front and from there it should be over. He’s very short so I will be taking doubles with the Port Hedland selections .

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r4 Universal Playboy ; He brings Saturday form to a race with a mixture of Kalgoorlie and midweek form. He’s drawn to get the perfect run , can be inconsistent but he’s best is good enough.

Best Roughie Belmont r5 Keytrade ; Has been out of form for a long time but last run was better , beaten under a length . At his best he would be hard in the market in a race like this so there is enough in the $20 on offer to have a nibble.

Belmont r6 Vast Art ; Has surged through the grades this prep , coming from a maiden to listed level winner . He is better suited than last start where he won effortlessly off a five week break . The only concern is the 6kg rise to 60kg but he should be too classy.

Belmont r7 Aztec Ruler ; Great run first up , beating all but the all the way winner who backed up last week and won again . Drawn to get every chance .

Best Bet Belmont r8 Upper Limits ; Won the Aquanita from last and was running right through the line so can’t see an extra 200m stopping him. The time they ran easily accounted for the girls so I have him the clear favourite whereas loyal Pike followers have taken his lead and stuck with the filly. Game On!

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r3 Red Square ; Undefeated 2yo stepping to Saturday grade first time . Should bounce straight to the top and will take a good one to run him down. Scared stiff of Khutulun , trials indicate above average ability.

Best Bet Belmont r8 Real Danger ; 2/2 for the new connections , both this track & distance. Rises in grade but drawn to get the sweetest of runs with Pike in the saddle. Ghost Who Walks is flying and drops in weight but has 1.5 lengths to make up on their last clash. Nerodio is a remarkable 6/6 at the Belmont 1000 but is first up.

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Pinny Punts

Pinjarra r3 Regal Statue ; We were with her last start this track & distance on heavy and she only got caught late after surprisingly taking up the running .With a bit of cover early I think she can repay the faith. Maids Testimony is unbeaten at trials and looks the danger , hopefully the race fitness in the conditions gives us the edge .

Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Killarney ; Ran 2nd on debut behind Wonder Weapon who franked the form by running 3rd in a c1 at Belmont yesterday . Barrier 14 at Pinjarra is not ideal but this race is pretty thin and if your going to back a jockey to overcome a wide gate on a run on type then Pikes your man.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r4 Justabittapress ; Late season 2yo who has shown above average ability at both trials , winning by a space in quick time relative to the day. $2.20 from barrier 10 on paper is questionable but if it had of drawn a gate you would be looking at odds on so there is enough in the price to have a bet for mine.

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 2.​4.​5/FD/4/1.​3.​5.​7 $96 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r5 Let’s Deal ; . He is a staying type who can sprint well fresh in this distance range. Has won 3/4 first up including 1 at today’s 1400m . Whether he can round them up with 60.5kg is a genuine concern. On one hand it’s disappointing to miss the $8 when markets opened , on the other hand the support ($8 - $4.6 - $6 ) indicates he is ready to run a race.

Belmont r9 Prize Pursuit ; resumes from a spell first up in the lucky last (R9) at Belmont tomorrow. Punters have naturally gravitated to #PIKEINTHELAST on progressive mare Category Three. She was given every possible first up and comes here off a setback. Barrier 2 and Pike , she could easily get every possible again . Aztec Ruler looked real smart in his first campaign , winning both starts. Forget next prep which was abandoned after 1 run and go off two nice trials in preparation for this , very hard to beat. Universal Flair seems to be a heavy tracker. Good track against , light weight and drawn to lead means I’ll be keeping him safe. Trade War is a get back and run on type better suited to 1400m but he’s a dry tracker and better chance than his odds suggest. While the market has written Prize Pursuit off , he has run 3 2nds in 4 first up runs to date and is drawn to get a great sit behind them .

Betting Strategy : While I have 4 or 5 rated above him , $31 / $6 is good value for a nibble each way . It’s a jackpot first 4 and looks very wide so I’ll be playing that for a small % which still could pay anything.

FIRST 4 NUMBERS ; 4.​8.​9.​10.​11/1.​4.​5.​6.​8.​9.​10.​11/1.​4.​5.​6.​8.​9.​10.​11/1.​2.​4.​5.​6.​8.​9.​10.​11

Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​12.​13.​14/1.​2/2.​3/4.​5.​8.​9.​10.​11 $240 for 100%

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r6 On The Full ; He will be somewhere near the top and he will take some running down. While Northam has been better out wide / swooping all season , 1000m on a drier surface with the rail in the true position it should be ok. At least by race 6 the jockey can try and edge out there if required.

Best Value Northam r7 Riding Hood Fame ; She brought up win number 2 at start 70 in a near identical race last start. Both wins and most of her places have been at Northam on a good surface . She will get back and sustain a run down the middle . Her stats say winning back to back races is unlikely but at $8 I’m willing to spec each way.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Value Belmont r6 Requisition : Finds a very similar race to last time when he loomed large but couldn’t reel in Hint of Mint. That horse got a dream inside run and didn’t go round a horse. While he could possibly get the same run we can back our tip at $9.50 / $3 each way .

Best Bet Belmont r7 Village Girl ; Was unwanted in betting first up but pushed a short priced favourite who found the fast lane out wide all the way to the line. Jumps quickly to 1400m but while you can get $5 each way she should get a soft enough run to fight it out.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r5 Fear The Wind ; He and stablemate Queen Alina have a stranglehold on the market. He’s going for 5 in a row and while he hasn’t beaten much , he seems to keep improving every start. Pike sticks , he’s obviously rock hard fit for the conditions and is the one to beat. Queen Alina was set a big task 2nd up and I was keen. She was pretty one paced but that was WFA jumping sharply in trip on Heavy. This is much more suitable but the stablemate is the safer option.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Roughie Belmont r4 Loopy’s Ladies ; Has placed 4 of 7 including last start’s easy maiden victory. The jump from maiden grade to c1 is often very difficult due to a head scratching ratings system where you get a big weight penalty for winning one. This is offset a little by the 2kg claim and she’s drawn for a good run. Untried on wet is another massive query but she is paying enough , around $16 , to have a nibble each way and find out.

Best Value Belmont r5 Weaponize ; Unwanted in betting last start but he defied the drift with a great turn of foot on a wet track. This one has to lump the 60kg for winning a maiden but has ticked the wet track box. The favourite Charming Belle has to do it first up from a wide draw , Snazzler looks vulnerable at 1200m , hence I can see value in the $13 on offer.

Best Bet Belmont r6 Fearless Talk; Fought tooth and nail and went down to a progressive mare in Duchess of Gossip by the barest of margins last start at the same track , distance and class in wet conditions. That mare then went to a Saturday race and should of won. No weight on her back and she’s bound to give a sight at $7 each way .

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 Hole in One ; Beat the stablemate and favourite Hidden Ruby home recently . Hoping CJP can use barrier 3 to settle a touch closer than usual and finish over the top of her again.

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r2 Princess Lacillia ; Debuted as a heavily backed favourite over 1200m on a soft track and won effortlessly. Gets identical conditions here and expecting a repeat. Rope Them In was huge on debut also , that was 1000m from the back of the field. Will have to sustain an even bigger run over an extra 200m to reel in the fav if she runs up to expectations .

Best Bet Belmont r8 Vast Art ; Not much separates the trifecta in the 1400m Raconteur Stakes market wise for today’s 1600m Belmont Guineas . Vast Art drew one , got out at the right time and run down Rusty Dreams in the shadows of the post. Both draw wide this time and both are expected to settle back and try and swoop from the back. Vast Art is already proven at the distance and is versatile enough to overcome the barrier. Although Upper Limits is drawn better than the other two I still expect it to get back. To my eye it had Vast Art’s back last start and finished off well but the margin between them was growing . Demolish and I Love Your Smile can give cheek at odds . Saintorio’s best would be good enough but it’s a quick turnaround from his flop in the Racontuer, there is very little natural pace in this race if they decided to go forward .

R8 Novelties ; 2/1.​3.​4.​8.​10/FD/FD $5 exacta , $45 trifecta $360 first 4 .

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r7 Beat The Bro ; Extremely hard horse to catch who hasn’t won for a long time however he is racing well in decent fields . The way Northam is playing at the moment , the barrier may work out ok , sitting three wide with cover or near last and letting rip down the outside in the straight. Ryewood has upside but is $2.45 coming from a weak c1 into a c5 . The scratching of Yeman Lass really assists Zadar Rock finding the lead on his terms , vital to his chances.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r3 Red Square ; 2yo debutante who has trialed like a smart horse , winning all three in a professional manner. Why Me is talented and coming from a narrow 2nd in Saturday grade. The obvious danger however 10 days is a very quick back up for 2yo’s and the draw favours Red Square.

Belmont r6 Falcon Trader ; You don’t need me to find this one , just expressing my opinion it will justify the odds on quote if you want to take a double with the best bet. BELLE JOURNEE’S older siblings love a wet track and her first up run suggested she is on track. Include in the novelties.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r6 Galaxy Affair ; Handy 3yo for this region who is drawn to get the run of the race. Has won 2nd up previously and ran 2nd in a harder race first up .

Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1 2 3 4 5 , field , 3 , 2 3 4 5 . $200 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r7 Queen Alina ; 2nd up over 2000m on quite possibly a heavy track is a big ask , add the wfa conditions and statistics says she’s up against it. Going to take a punt that she is the only genuine stayer in the race and she definitely has a turn of foot so if she’s fit enough she can buck the odds. She has already been best backed so I’m not the only one with this theory.

One week in to winter wet tracks and the winners once again have been hard to find. Tomorrow is no exception and I recommend small stakes .

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Pinny Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r1 Regal Statue ; Well bred filly who did enough on debut to suggest she is better than these and will be suited by the extra 200m. $2 going from a good to heavy 9 is a significant risk but it’s the horse that stands out on the program.

Pinjarra r4 Torpedo Man ; The outside fence has been dynamite down the straight 1000m this season and he is drawn to find it. Wet track could possible change things but I’d rather take the chance at $4.20 than odds on about the fav who is first up and untried at 1000m.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r6 Divine Pair ; Extremely hard horse to catch who hasn’t won for a long time , is drawn wide and has to carry 60 kgs. The positives are down in class and more importantly loves wet ground whereas the others in the market are virtually untested in the conditions.

As is typical for midweek winter racing the confidence is only fair and I suggest smaller stakes .

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