Best Each Way Pinjarra r8 Canny Jack ; A very in n out customer , he’s last two runs have been rippers on soft tracks . A repeat of nearly beating Asphalt just about wins this Heavy will be no problem and would suit him more than most . Trusting him to produce 3 good runs in a row is dangerous but the odds look overs in the suitable conditions , especially top 3.
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Best Bet Carnarvon r6 Gold Spy ; First start in the state was here over 1000m when he rounded up a maiden field from well back to score . Yes this is considerably stronger but the fav led that day and there was a big gap to third so I can see him improving again out to 1200m and he is yet to miss the money 2nd up .
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Best Each Way R6 Like No Other ; Only knows one way , flop out of the barriers and fly home late , usually into 4th or 5th by a narrow margin. Will that suit sand fibre racing ? Doubtful , however he is currently $8.50 / $2.60 and he’s recent form lines are more than good enough considering the narrow beaten margins. With his racing pattern , has to be each way and to maximize profit , heavy place.
Best Multi
R5 Girls On Fire Win : City placed 2yo (3yo as of tomorrow) in a very weak all aged maiden. Should win at a good things price . (currently $1.45)
R6 Like No Other Place : see above
R6 One Punch Win & Place ; Was a frustrating non winner with ability for the previous stable , bolted in on the sand first up for the new stable at start 17. Same distance , half a kilo less , only very slightly stronger opposition makes him very hard to beat.
Multi 1 : Win Place Place $4.67 (Tabtouch)
Multi 2 Win _____ Win $2.90 ( Leave out middle race)
Quaddie
1 2 3 4 5 6 9 10 , 9 , 1 3 4 6 8 12 , 1
$48 for 100%
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Best Each Way ; Kalgoorlie r2 Luminous Lady ; 3yo filly who made solid ground out wide on debut before peaking late. With natural improvement , perhaps settling closer in the run , I think she can run a race at each way prices. You would have to be crazy to back Heavy Metal at $1.40. Of course she is hard to beat but just because Pike is on doesn’t make a 15 start maiden with head issues a 1.40 pop. Luminous Lady heavy place is a better bet.
R2 Novelties ; 5.10/3.5.10/FD/FD
Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 Secret Attire ; Is going very well at moment , both here and in the metro area. Drawn to sit behind the speed and pounce . Hard to bet against your own horse but Magnasonic just can’t draw a barrier. He is ready to win , I just can’t see a scenario where he can settle close enough both to the front and the rail. Horses haven’t made ground out wide all season. If that miraculously changes today then he is not out of it , especially top 3.
SRM Secret Attire Top 2 , Magnasonic Top 4 .
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We finally get to Belmont and don’t the other tracks need a rest ! While the track has been given the green light , I for one will not be going too hard tomorrow without evidence of a fair and stable surface. Last Saturday was basically Pike outriding his peers , finding the outside better going from all sorts of different angles . While that is nothing new , we then saw some of his rides start ridiculous unders midweek. He started 1.10 in the Jockey' challenge Thursday and failed to ride a winner. He didn’t do much wrong either , the odds were just putrid. My three tips for today’s meeting are all Pike rides and all three currently have a heavy Pike tax attached . I have created two multi’s to consider , hopefully they pay a bit more closer to jump.
R1 King of Light ; Brilliant winner on debut , coming from last over 1300m . Pretty rare for a 2yo to start at 1300m so the 1400m is almost guaranteed to suit . From the draw you expect he will settle close to last again and at $1.55 on race 1 on a refurbished track , it might not be all plain sailing.
R2 Supernatural ; The question last start was 1400m first time. She won so softly you’d suggest it might turn out to be her pet distance. This is harder but stays on the minimum weight . $2 is rock bottom with Sunny Honey & Cool Memory the main dangers .
R6 Essentric Nature ; His first up run in the state was a a blinder when he put paid to a midweek c3 field back in January. He didn’t beat much that day so I was expecting a much better price in this first up assignment. At around $4 he would be my best bet of the day but everytime I check he is getting shorter and shorter. $2,80 is very short without inside word that he is ready to fire.
Win Win Win multi is currently paying $8.68 on Tabtouch. Win Place Place Is $2.69
I suggest having both , the split % of stake is up to you.
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Best Bet Northam r6 Decision Maker ; The leap in both class and weight when transitioning from maiden to c1 is usually not punter friendly. In this case however I am making the decision ( get it ! ) based on this horse being a wet tracker and mile plus horse based on it’s win last start in a weak maiden. Setagaya is the clear danger. A 40/60% split is the safest option.
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Best Each Way Pinjarra r5 Be Awesome ; Ran 3rd in a c1 over 1400m on soft , ran last over 1600m on good then won easily over 1600m on soft . Going to use the last win to suggest he is a wet tracker and I’m going to use his breeding to suggest he will get the 2000m. In a typically wide open mid week stayers event , the each way odds appeal as the best bet of the day.
Pinjarra r8 Magical Sequence ; Had him marked as best value for last Saturday when he was reserved for this assignment. Actually preferred that bet at the value now he has been backed into favouritism but you have to trust both the trainer and early money that he is expected to run a big race. Will likely get back so we will need to see horses make ground out wide in the earlier races.
Best Multi
R2 Asphalt Win ; Superior wet tracker who gets conditions to suit but is a good things price.
R5 Be Awesome Place ; See Above
R8 Magical Sequence Place ; See Above , as it’s now favourite , the place goes in this multi .
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Best Bet Carnarvon r5 Dirty Chai ; In four starts for the new stable , this mare has progressed from a 7 length romp at Dongara , 2.5 at Geraldton , 4.3 here at Carnarvon and finally 2.75 at Bunbury in OMWLY grade. Remarkable progression and add the 12000m record of 6/9 and it’s impossible not to tip her to make it five on the bounce. Getting “Tashed” instead of “Piked’ is becoming a thing , she is in outstanding form and Big Cities is dangerous for that reason , but it’s the only reason we are getting $2.70 .
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Best Bet Derby r6 Lucky Landing ; Might of discovered the way to ride him by default last start. Jockey couldn’t hold him and rivals couldn’t get near him. Kyra Yuill takes over and it’s only an extra 20m so if he finds the front a similar result can be expected.
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Best Bet Northam r3 Zourun Run ; Ran on well to run 2nd on debut over the 1000m. On that run the extra 100m should suit. Both the equal favourite (Arizona Sky ) and 3rd fav (Who’s Bent) are coming off 1 trial and no trials respectively . That is an ask for 2yo’s over 1100m hence I will always side with the race experience / fitness.
Best Each Way Northam r6 Desert Dancing ; First two starts in WA have been good , ran down a hot favourite last start . Nicely Played is another favourite resuming without a trial. She is quick and will lead them into the straight , hoping there is enough pressure to have her vulnerable late and the each way odds are appealing . Nothing went right for Extreme Love first up , the trial was good and the Durrant stable are having a purple patch , good roughy.
r6 Novelties ; 6.7.10/6.7.10/1.2.6.7.10/1.2.3.6.7.8.9.10
$3 quinella , $18 trifecta $90 first 4
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Best Each Way Bunbury r7 Sunny Honey ; Handles all track conditions , especially heavy and that’s important with a lot of rain forecast . Track should be nice and cut up by this stage and he is drawn perfectly to sit midfield and swim down the middle in the home straight. No Brainer is 4/5 , all on wet tracks. Hopefully the race fitness gives us the edge but he is paying enough to save on.
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Best Bet r3 Shasfa ; No doubt the plan will be to put the foot down from the start and make them eat her dust . If she jumps cleanly and gets there early , it will be a case of getting out the Rosemary beads in the last 100m. Admittedly $2 for a horse who has won 1 / 20 is awfully short , however at least it was on dirt over 1000m.
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Best Bet Northam r2 Diamonds’n’rubies ; The form out of her last two starts has been franked since and she now looks suited getting out to 1300m . Ankareeda is the danger as the market suggests.
Northam r4 Midnight Star ; Has the 1600m run under her belt and beat everything besides our Best Bet (flex) , comfortably 2nd up. Odds on so no spoils , Diamonds’n’rubies place into Midnight Star win is currently paying around $2.41 . That’s a confident bet.
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Best Bet Pinjarra r6 Let’s Talk ; Think leading over 1200m at a more controlled tempo over the high pressure 1000m straight races is the right set up for him. The drop in class also helps. Happy to bet at the current odds , under $3 and I lose interest.
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Bunbury r2 Buderim ; Bit of a spec on breeding here as it’s a half brother to a former smart sprinter from the same stable. Last trial indicated a level of ability that can take this out and has blinkers added for an extra edge.
Best Bet Bunbury r7 Bucket’s Ridge ; Ran 2nd in the Strickland Stakes on a Heavy 9 last start and is 1/2 at 2200m. Meeting is starting on a soft 7 with wild conditions forecast , if the meeting survives this long , I really expect him to be winning and see $2.30 as value .
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Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Forever Boy ; Off season stayers are hardly trustworthy , lets call them politicians even. If you are going to go down that path then a lightly raced one with upside is the key. Sustained a run to only get run down by a talented stablemate this distance last start and there are no horses of that calibre here. The cerise and white are dominating these type of races lately and he looks very hard to beat.
Best Value Pinjarra r7 Baby Paris ; 4/8 first up , 3/5 soft ground , she is a classy animal when right who has competed against our top sprinters previously. Untried down the 1000m straight , at least she is drawn the right side. Have to trust the trial was just a clean up without her race day blinkers on to bet , $16 worth a spec.
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Best Roughie Pinjarra r5 Cross Statement ; 2/3 at 1300m including 1/1 here , going for 3 wins in a row either side of a spell . This race is as wide open as they come so with these stats in mind , I’m happy to speck him at $31 each way.
Best Each Way Pinjarra r8 Kelvinator ; Has won 4/7 over 1400m including all the way victories at his last two starts. Has been springing the gates and will need to from the wide draw but he is the natural leader in the field and if he crosses he can prove tough to run down at double figures.
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Best Bet Carnarvon r6 Cheeky Charlotte ; Looks a perfect dirt horse after successfully handling it this track and distance first up. Has the speed to lead if they desire but showed it doesn’t have to last time . Ticks a lot of boxes and looks extremely hard to beat.
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Best Bet Northam r7 Amarline ; The win followed by 3 consecutive 2nds in 3yo OMWLY grade looks by far the best form reference in this race. Is versatile enough to hold a spot from barrier 1 , especially back out to the 1400m for Pike to to utilize it to it’s full advantage. The Pike / Durrant combo has a stack of favourites and this is the last of them so price could be affected by earlier results.
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Best Bet Northam r1 Annie Warbucks : Punters , myself included , were left very flat last start after she failed to get the job done as a heavily supported favourite. The addition of blinkers has convinced me to give her one shot at redemption. Midnight Star is the massive danger . Grantham trained Peter’s Investments horses are on fire and this filly did more than enough on debut to warrant favouritism. 1200m to 1600m at start 2 for a 3yo filly is still a task hence we will stick with Annie.
Best Each Way Northam r2 The Rocket ; Expensive yearling from a top 2yo producing yard , this one is trialing well enough to be right in this. The 8.50 last night was generous , $5.50 is still value on an each way basis.
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