Best Bet Belmont r3 My Huckleberry ; Beat today’s fav Mr Kissinger home on debut in higher grade with more weight. With natural improvement he appeals as the best bet on a value basis .
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r6 Sentimental Hero ; Had a great duel with Ginger Baker in the Coolgardie Cup but couldn’t get past him. He now presents 3rd up with an extra 340m and a kg better off to get revenge. Ginger won’t give up without a fight but at 61kgs there has to be a tipping point. Starry Heights is currently favourite. He dominated this race and then the Kalgoorlie Cup last year but hasn’t fired a shot since. Will appreciate the dry ground and you can never rule a Williams horse out in a feature race. Be some training effort jumping up from 1400m.
Belmont r2 Niccimota ; If it bounces straight to the front $3.10 is a good price , if something has the pace to make it work early it’s gross unders. I’m banking on it going straight to the top.
Railway Watch R5 Cosmic Crusader ; We tipped him as a leading contender before last weeks demolition job. Strangely he turns up here 1 week later , up in class , up to 1650m and 2nd up. Yes he has these covered ability wise , especially at the weights but at $1.45 no thanks. He is 2nd up off an injury enforced long spell in just 7 days. Reading between the lines maybe they couldn’t pass up the opportunity to earn the ranking points to guarantee a Railway start? I’m sure they wouldn’t be running if he wasn’t bucking his brand off but at the odds I’m happy to just watch a good horse go round and wait for the feature races down the track to back him again.
Best Bet R6 Nine Ball ; Beaten at $1.24 in a maiden first up , then made amends in first maiden grade and then a c3. She led first up and then used a brilliant turn of foot from the back in both her wins. They were pretty thin races so $3.10 in graduation company is questionable , providing the track plays fair to swoopers she is still clearly the one to beat.
SRM Nine Ball (9) Top 2 , Centre Bond (6) Top 4 ; Centre Bond finally broke through last start after burning punters as favourite on multiple occasions. Maybe the confidence boost will see him go on with it and he is never far away , even in those defeats so top 4 looks a viable option.
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R3 Quinella No’s 2 & 3 ; They are literally the only two in the race with any form to speak of whatsoever with Classic Turn the next best. Again it will be short but they keep lobbing at above $2 . This one might even go close to paying odds on but it’s better than bank interest and we are well in front on these quinella’s .
Best Bet Bunbury r5 Wynn Las Vegas ; 3yo taking on the older horses on debut over 1400m from a wide draw. Not usually a set up to declare $2.05 the best bet of the day however he has found a very thin maiden. His trials have been solid , the latest a close 2nd to an impressive debut winner yesterday . We will let Pike worry about the barrier. Extreme Ruler is the only runner of the raced brigade with any form. A repeat of last start stretched a further 200m would make the fav earn it and the quinella likely. . The other debutantes are complete guesswork.
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Belmont r1 Novelties ;
1 , 2 , 5 , 4 In Order ; These obvious quinella’s in small fields continue to lob at decent enough prices . I think Hasani is best placed to win again while Saam Time Lucky is the only logical danger. Saw enough in Rockstar Queen’s debut in a good quality 1100m maiden to suggest 1400m will suit better and she has Pike jumping on to make her 3rd pick.
Main Bet quinella , I find there isn’t usually enough extra in the exacta price to take the extra risk.
Trifecta in order , won’t pay much but at $1 a unit profit is profit if we happen to get it right.
First 4 In order , obviously the more legs we add the less likely and we are going pretty much in market order.
Best Bet Belmont r3 Surfside Session ; Thought the first up run was good enough to see a repeat performance take this out . Drew the outside that day and worked hard early whereas he comes up with barrier 1 today. De Grandhome’s trial was sharp , Pike in a stalking position is always dangerous and he is the quinella horse as the market suggests.
Best Value Belmont r7 Seeyouatthesession ; Thought he was a danger to Prince last time and although he wasn’t , there is more pressure up front in this harder race. Considering Prince is $9 into $5 and Session is $31 into $11 , I wish I got the 31s but there is still value in the $11 each way.
SRM : Both to finish top 4 (No’s 7 & 11)
Boxed Trifecta : 4 7 9 11 ; Empress of India and Promising map the best out of the other key chances. Hoping Pin Deep and Military Power cut up each other and get overrun .
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Best Each Way Northam r6 True Fiction ; Hit the line nicely first up in what should be a strong form reference for maiden grade . That was 1100m so hoping the better barrier allows him to settle closer coming back to the 1000m.
SRM True Fiction (N5) Top 3 Gingeriffic (N8) top 4. ; Gingeriffic was nabbed for 3rd by True Fiction on the line first up. If it’s the right form line then it has to be included at double figures. Opposite to Ginger , it has a bad gate but is suited dropping back to 1000m.
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Best Place Bet Belmont r2 El Patron ; Known as a non winner but has a 50% place record with 3 wins and over 200k in the bank , I’d be happy to own him. Think he sits outside the lead today and that suits him better. If the leader , possibly Rock In Wonder , kicks he will chase him all the way to the line and you never no , might get the bob! Either way he can fight all the way and run a drum at $2.50 . I will go 5% win just in case.
SRM El Patron (1) Rock In Wonder (2) both top 3 /4. ; No prices yet , top 4 very likely , top 3 riskier but much better odds!
Belmont r4 Final Siren ; Both his first up run in the Beaufine and his tick over trial indicate he has come back in fine order. Gets a clear map advantage over his main rival in Stormchaser who will have to pull out something special to run him down.
SRM Final Siren (4) Win Stormchaser (6) Top 3. Basically adding some juice to the winning price of Final Siren. If you think Stormchaser is going to win then take the quinella instead.
Best Bet Cosmic Crusader ; Has a lethal turn of foot and is clearly the best horse in this going forward imo, in fact i could see it as a genuine lightweight Railway Stakes horse. If he can sustain his finishing burst over 1400m first up then he is too classy.
Belmont r7 Snow God : Punters have decided the map advantage and senior jockey over the very progressive Yorga Pride is the way to go and I have to agree. He will be in the firing line and she will be making her run down the middle. The price between the 2 is becoming ridiculous but I can’t see her giving away that much head start.
SRM Snow God (10) Win ; Yorga Pride (4) Top 3 Scully (7) Top 4. ; Scully looks the safest option to add something outside the two obvious with Chris Parnham drawn to get clear air on a horse who is attacking the line well. A quinella on the two favs might be good insurance in case Yorga is one out of the box and Cooper pulls out a peach.
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Best Bet Bunbury r2 Pearl King ; Might of just peaked late first up 1400m when only beaten 3/4 length in a stronger maiden than this. Extra fitness should see it going very close in a thin race.
SRM Pearl King (N3) Top 2 , Ordashus (N2) Top 4 .
Really think Pearl King should be winning so top 2 for safety and Ordashus ran 2nd to Productive this trip last start. That is the most reliable form amongst the rest.
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Belmont r5 Kervette ; Won it’s first two starts in WA and then jumped favourite on a Saturday where she had no luck from an inside draw. Well weighted after the claim and looks the one to beat down in grade.
Best Bet Belmont r7 Swift Talker ; Won his maiden on debut , giving the impression he has above average ability. I like the jump to c3 company to stay down in the weights and think he can remain undefeated at start 2.
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Kalgoorlie r5 Gilbatrar Gold ; On her last start win , 1400m looks her ideal distance and she stays in the same class. Yes the leader stopped but the gap to 3rd was significant and this looks no harder.
Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Ginger Baker ; Class horse who should lead these with a great pace setting jockey in Brad Parnham booked. He has raced with success in the metro / provincial feature races which on paper look stronger than today. If it was a soft 6 or worse I’d be chips in. The Good 4 and 60kgs bring him back to the pack slightly .Sentimental Hero has a great 2nd up record. He looks the clear danger and is likely the one emerging from the pack to try and chase Ginger down.
SRMGinger Baker (n1) top 2 , Sentimental Hero (n3) top 3 . $3.11 (tabtouch) as previously stated , you can usually find better if you shop around. I am also taking the quinella.
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Belmont r1 Quinella No’s 1 & 4 : Rockfest is $1.40 off a 5 length romp on debut in a midweek 3yo . Artistry in Motion is 2nd fav off the back of a 5 length romp in a Bunbury maiden where he jumped $1.26. They look to have panels on the other 3 . The Quinella is so obvious it might be short but the one we tipped Thursday was the same and paid $2.30. Not much more risk in locking Champagne Crusader (2) for 3rd in the trifecta.
Best Bet Belmont r7 Fluro Neuro ; Has run 5 2nds in a row , all in feature races against better horses than it meets here. He simply tries his heart out every start and is ready to win another race. Barrier 10/10 the only sticking point , the track should be pretty sloppy by now and we will back Pike to navigate the draw. He has won on heavy previously.
Best Value Belmont r8 Autumn Rebel ; Won this track & distance 2nd up and drops weight thanks to a claim. Ran a close 2nd first up on heavy so conditions no problems. I have it marked favourite so will gladly accept the $7 each way on offer.
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R1 Quinella No’s 1 & 3
Prince is the raging odds on fav based on his win on the sand and 2nd to now Saturday winner Niccimota down the Pinjarra straight. $1.60 is too short for mine , both those races set up differently to the Northam 1000m. Seeyouatthesession is a track and distance winner who only finished 2 lengths behind Ginger Morpheus first up for a new stable. It will be a very popular quinella in the 5 horse field but they look superior to the rest. No odds for the SRM for both to finish top 2 which is the fixed odds version of a quinella , around $2.50 worth locking in.
R5 SRM Eternal Wine (9) Top 2 , Gingeriffic (6) Top 3
Eternal Wine has been hammered in betting on debut off the back of a near last to first trial victory. The Lanetrain money is generally on the money . Gingeriffic is a half to ex duck Magnasonic. Didn’t do much at her one 2yo start but the trials have been promising , she has a soft draw and blinkers first time. I’m not willing to take odds on in a Northam maiden so the SRM is my bet.
No prices available at time of posting. As I tip WA racing I always use tabtouch as a reference. When placing them however I find their prices to be close to the lowest available so shop around .
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Best Bet Belmont r2 Urquharts Bluff ; This is a fascinating situation and even more fascinating market. 6 days ago Urquharts Bluff bolted in a maiden when he was mistaken for the wrong horse and rightly disqualified. 2nd (promoted to first) in that race was Xentaro and they meet again with the former the current $3.20 fav vs $5 for the horse who beat it hands down. Is it the jockey’s booked ? Whatever the reason if both front up tomorrow my monies with the value.
SRM 1 N3 Urquharts Bluff Top 2 , N5 Xentaro Top 3 . $$3.35 (tabtouch)
SRM 2 N3 Urquharts Bluff Top 3 , N5 Xentaro Top 3 , n2Surfside Session Top 4 $4.24 (Tabtouch)
While Xentaro looks unders , it is drawn to get the run of the race with Brad Parnham booked from barrier 1. I have Surfside Session as the hardest to beat but his map with 60kg is much more difficult. Both these SRM should go close providing Urquharts delivers. I will also be having a stand alone win bet.
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Best Bet Belmont r2 Urquharts Bluff ; This is a fascinating situation and even more fascinating market. 6 days ago Urquharts Bluff bolted in a maiden when he was mistaken for the wrong horse and rightly disqualified. 2nd (promoted to first) in that race was Xentaro and they meet again with the former the current $3.20 fav vs $5 for the horse who beat it hands down. Is it the jockey’s booked ? Whatever the reason if both front up tomorrow my monies with the value.
I will update and add a SRM after scratchings in the morning
Belmont r1 Paint it Red ; Has run 2nd to one of the most promising 3yo’s in the state and beaten a Saturday winner at two career starts to date. This looks easier so naturally she looks very hard to beat.
Best Bet Belmont r3 Niccimota ; She looked a moral last start and proved punters right to remain undefeated down the Pinjarra straight. Her only 2 wins from 11 starts have been at that unique track and distance so you might question why she is $2 and my best bet on a Saturday. All her career she has led until late in her races and I think she has strengthened up this prep. First up she was only run down by Ginger Morpheus who jumped at $1.32 at it’s next start. 2nd up was Pinjarra and now she finds a weak Saturday race where like always she controls from the front. .
SRM Niccimota Win , Go Go Grommet Top 3 ; Go Go Grommet is the other 1000m specialist in the race and also has Ginger Morpheus form lines. Tricky barrier for ZJP to navigate but sitting 3 wide over 1000m is not disastrous No odds available at time of posting.
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SRM Belmont r3 No’s 1 & 10 Top 3
With the wet conditions I am drawn to the runners with recent race fitness opposed to first up / on debut. Jimmy Angel (1) has had two starts either side of a spell for a 2nd in 2yo Stakes grade over 1100m and a first up 2nd in a 1000m maiden. He hit the line late in both , indicating today’s 1200m will suit better . I’m Genevieve (10) won a very weak Kalgoorlie 1100m maiden by 3 lengths on debut. Track was soft that day and she was strong through the line so with natural improvement she can handle the rise in grade. The other 3 in the market are either on debut or first up . The SRM is currently paying $3.53 (tabtouch) . Both are paying $5.50 for the win in a field of 7 so the other option is to back both equally for the win and you still make a decent profit if one salutes.
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Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Chipily ; Ex Victorian who only got run down on the post first run for the new stable. When interviewed after winning the last yesterday , jockey Tash Faithfull threw it out as her best ride , that’s a good push considering her strong book.
Kalgoorlie r8 Dreamers Never Die ; Think Pearly Nugget would win this so naturally picking the horse with two 2nds behind her makes sense. Not sure leading is his go , a sit right behind the pace from barrier 2 would see him hard to hold out.
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Best Bet Belmont r5 Triple The Chant ; Passed the tricky maiden to C1 test with aplomb , putting them away both times with an explosive turn of foot. Now looks for the hatrick in graduation company on a Saturday . That is a significant jump , especially going around as favourite , but it’s the right time of year to try it . Rock In Wonder is an on pace runner who took full advantage of a severe bias last start to score. If leaders are dominating early he probably jumps favourite and wins. Hardest to beat on a fair track also for quinella punters.
Newman r6 King Mahuta ; After winning the Broome Cup easily , despite sitting 3 deep throughout , surely he just wins the Newman Cup 1 week later. Reginald beat King Mahuta by 1/4 length in the Port Hedland cup and has 2.5kg weight swing in this race to turn around a 5.7 length defeat at Broome. It’s more about the fav carrying 60kgs (up from 54kgs) on the 7 day back up for mine and if he handles it he’s too good.
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Pinjarra R2 Niccomotta ; Very speedy customer who will always lead for a long way over 1000m but be very vulnerable late. Her 1 win was down the Pinjarra straight 1000m where she actually gave them no chance of running her down so I am banking on the fact she finds the outside fence from her draw without any opposition and holds them comfortably. Wet track stats are poor however I feel leading on the outside fence is more important than the ground condition this track and distance. Obviously at odds on it’s a question of how to make money without risking the house. See below for a multi idea.
Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Choux Shoe ; Has been settling a long way back lately and hitting the line hard . Out to 1600m from a much better barrier , expect her to settle closer and be awfully hard to beat.
Multi : Niccomotta win into Choux Shoe place get’s the odds to $2.24 (tabtouch) , providing the first leg wins we can then back the 2nd leg to win with confidence that a place gets our money back.
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Best Bet Carnarvon r6 Prince Ragnar ; Won a 3 horse trial with 14 and 54 lengths back to the other 2. The time he ran would win nearly any Carnarvon 1000m race in history. 61kgs under race conditions is a different kettle of fish to a 3 horse trial but $5 is a damn good price to take the punt he can run them into the ground.
Quaddie (r3-6) 1 , 1 2 3 6 7 8 9 , 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 14 , 1. $77 for 100%
Not willing to take $1.70 on Gold Spy (first leg) from barrier 9 with 61.5kgs , but on it’s first two runs in the region it should be a cheap , safe start to the quaddie.
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